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Transmogrified Tiger

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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger

  1. Transmogrified Tiger
    The way to think about playoff optimism is they just need to keep winning series. The Braves are the only team they have an impractical path to pass at current rates, so you just take care of your business and hope Atlanta has a 4-6 stretch or so in the next couple weeks to put you within 2-3 games for the final stretch. It's unlikely of course, but the part that's out of their hands is 1) only one team and 2) that team doesn't have to completely faceplant in order to bring the race back to the range where normal variance could happen. Also, you can enjoy the Cubs playing good baseball! Even if the games become dead rubbers, the team isn't set to have a dramatic makeover in the offseason, so playing well means good things for 2025.
  2. Transmogrified Tiger
    Declining performance at the plate and having a tweener profile in a group that had a number of other OF options. He's not exactly a CF and even at his best was a slight stretch offensively in a corner, so the roster math always pointed towards finding a true CF and/or giving opportunities to the O'Neills, Walkers, and currently Burlesons of the world.
  3. Transmogrified Tiger
    Annoying to have to use Hodge after Palencia had strike 3 on Reynolds go uncalled to end the game
  4. Transmogrified Tiger
    Ease Brennen's pain
  5. Transmogrified Tiger
    If you want to be pessimistic, you can point to Shaw's swing not really being geared for loft and that probably capping out the amount of HR pop he can get to at the MLB level, at least relative to Happ. If you want to be optimistic, you can point to Shaw being short-levered and already showing really promising ability to barrel the ball, so there isn't a structural reason he couldn't gear his swing towards that more if desired.
  6. Transmogrified Tiger
    This would've been the Nationals -> San Diego deadline and not this past offseason, but I believe I've heard that? Also Carlson has a 117 wRC+ and has the highest average EV of his career in Tampa.
  7. Transmogrified Tiger
    Considering he's going back on the mound next year, continuing at his pace from the last couple years for 4 more years will get him very close to 60 WAR.
  8. Transmogrified Tiger
    Sahadev with a write up on Smith: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5725396/2024/08/27/cubs-prospect-cam-smith/
  9. Transmogrified Tiger
    2B
  10. Transmogrified Tiger
    how many baseball games would you say you've watched before
  11. Transmogrified Tiger
    The Cubs lead 3-2 after 3 innings
  12. Transmogrified Tiger
    Doesn't look like they have a shared off day the rest of the season, so I'd assume double header. The Sunday game is already scheduled for 1:35 local time, so I'd guess they try to keep that firm? Since it's a travel day and there may be Sunday Night Baseball window considerations I lean towards it being more of a pure back to back DH where Game 2 starts X mins after Game 1, but I'm not all that confident.
  13. Transmogrified Tiger
    Also makes it a lot easier to talk yourself out of paying for a particular reliever if you've got e.g. Assad/Wesneski/Brown all slated for the MLB pen on opening day. Jed has been pretty consistent so far in his tenure of making money investments in at least 1 SP and 1 bat per offseason(Stroman/Seiya, Taillon/Dansby, Shota/Bellinger). Maybe that reaches a point of diminishing returns, and it doesn't necessarily mean a Steele/Shota caliber arm. But especially with the young pitching injuries limiting the IP they can get from them in 2025, I would expect to see a material SP addition.
  14. Transmogrified Tiger
    There is 20% of the season left, there is basically no chance they don't get anyone to 3 fWAR? At full season paces they're on track to have four: Happ very easily, Swanson semi-easily, Seiya and Paredes barely, Busch/Hoerner barely missing
  15. Transmogrified Tiger
    Smith since his 3 game acclimation to Low A(2 for 11, 8/0 K/BB): 40 PA (10 G), .353/.450/.843, 5 HR, 4/6 K/BB
  16. Transmogrified Tiger
    My goodness. I gotta admit I didn't see PCA reaching this level of locked in so quickly, even if it's simply a hot streak
  17. Transmogrified Tiger
    Please just talk like a human being, the second sentence doesn't make any sense. Also Harvey was traded to Kansas City at the deadline(and then was bad for 6 outings and got ILed)
  18. Transmogrified Tiger
    Bote was on the active roster though, so if there is an IL stint too there's another player on his way to the MLB club. Given that Bote's playing time disappeared once Paredes was acquired and Vazquez is also a RHH IF with more defensive flexibility, it'd be a little surprising if it wasn't connected.
  19. Transmogrified Tiger
    Best guess is the shoulder thing is bothering Paredes enough to IL him
  20. Transmogrified Tiger
    If I were to nitpick this it would be that Shaw has played 15 games at AAA, and purely from a results standpoint has seen a fairly stark adjustment in the first week's worth of games to the 2nd week. I struggle to make macro conclusions about his profile's readiness when a couple games of post-promotion adjustment that are likely less predictive weigh so heavily on the numbers. That said, the nitpick does still gesture towards the broader point given that there aren't 100 games left in the AAA season. It would be irresponsible to be counting on Day 1 MLB contributions from Shaw this year, and at his current overall trajectory it would be pushing it to expect anything meaningful in the first half of the year. That's fine! He was drafted 13 months ago. But it also means that you can't approach the offseason as if he's a plug and play solution unless he repeats this week's outcomes while improving on his overall peripherals for the remainder of the AAA season. That's not a very realistic expectation, so the likely optimistic case is Shaw is broken into MLB a bit slower than PCA was this year, and PCA wasn't a meaningful contributor until summer.
  21. Transmogrified Tiger
    The current WC3 pace is for 86 wins. If the Cubs finished the season at the pace they've played since the trade deadline passed, they'd finish with...86 wins.
  22. Transmogrified Tiger
    Players with his profile(low K, high launch angle/high FB) tend to do that. Think of this simplified example: if I hit 4 scalding line drives, 5 weak hit outs, and 1 K, I will have a lower xwOBA than someone who hits 4 scalding line drives, 3 weak hit outs, and 3 Ks. But in an outcomes sense we want the first set of PA, especially if that's repeatable, and players with Low K high FB tend to be really talented hitters with good barrel control. But even if that's not convincing it isn't a nightmare scenario! Paredes at his xwOBA is an above average hitter and 3B.
  23. Transmogrified Tiger
    Players have slumps man. As we have seen multiple times this year, shrieking about every bad plate appearance when players have a significant track records otherwise just ends up making you look foolish.
  24. Transmogrified Tiger
    if it weren't for that grifter we'd be up by 9 after 4 innings instead of 6!
  25. Transmogrified Tiger
    Brennen Davis isn't real, he never existed and never will
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