Transmogrified Tiger

Shaw is a double short of the cycle, it is the bottom of the 4th

The more I think about this the more I think this is a tricky offseason to get just right unless you can manage to get Soto out of NYC(v unlikely imo). I think the way I'd think about it is generally like this: SP is the most important addition to make. I'd probably look to the trade market on this one since there's a couple options where you can possibly find a goldilocks zone of upside v. cost(both $ and player), plus the FA options aren't very noteworthy Bat is the trickiest role to fill. If Bellinger opts out there's a clear spot in the best 9 for one addition, but if that player has defensive pride/aspirations it may be trickier to convince them. The FA options are imperfect after Soto for various reasons, and there are less obviously available trade matches than SP. Both Leverage RP and C I think you prefer to buy in FA. There will be good options that don't stretch the budget or Jed's contract length preferences, and that saves trade resources/QO picks for the bigger impact acquisitions without gutting the farm. As for who that could be, I think something like these names(one per) could work: SP: Castillo, Keller Bat: Santander, Teoscar, Pederson (note: you can still pursue Soto as hard as you're able since these guys are all likely waiting out his market) Catcher: Kelly, Jansen RP: Holmes, Scott, Estevez Add in re-upping Lopez and maybe some bench shuffling(Drury? JD Davis?) you can fit this in without a ton of worry(but also not a ton of room to spare) if Bellinger is opting out.

Outside of those you mentioned, Framber Valdez, Gausman, and Mitch Keller feel like decent bets to be available in some fashion. As for the Seattle dynamic, I think because of what Seattle is looking for the best/most likely option is probably Castillo? They keep their core of pre-FA arms, get to turn Castillo's money into Alonso/Bellinger/Bregman, and the Cubs get to do a Darvish deal from the other side where they get multi-year ceiling from a SP without paying huge years or an insane player package.

The Twins took this guy in the 6th round and gave him 300k to sign and just released him for re-enacting Space Jam

Poor Benjamin Cowles broke his wrist on a HBP, worked his way back to game action in record time, and has been rewarded with 2 HBP in his first 6 PA off the IL

Yeah that's fair, for anyone unsure Langeliers is A and Kelly is B. The thing that stands out in that comparison is less about Kelly(who is fairly described as boring/responsible) and more about Langeliers, since it's striking to me that he is so bad at everything besides hitting the occasional HR and controlling the run game that he's struggling to be an average player. Definitely takes some wind out of my sails about the prospect of paying a healthy player cost to target him.

Maybe interesting food for thought, these are 2 catcher options who are likely to be discussed this winter, but I'm guessing probably not discussed as similarly as those numbers would indicate.

absurd pick by Busch, have a day

I suspect it's a resource allocation thing. In other words, they think video access plus the trackman data they get is sufficient as a default since they can always get in-person looks of specific targets as needed, this also explains why they keep an in-person presence in the complex/DSL where that data doesn't exist. So they put that money into e.g. amateur scouting or coaching or w/e.

I'm not sure I follow, are you saying fewer in-person scouting resources -> less impact for Kantrovitz so he chooses to take another gig?

Nico Hoerner is coming off consecutive 4 win seasons, and while he isn't going to hit that mark this year, is still likely to cross the 3 win mark and is currently tied for 4th among qualified 2B in fWAR. Just because he doesn't slug .450 doesn't mean that he wouldn't be very difficult to replace.

I'm still a little concerned there's some Justin Grimm to him with the too-straight FB getting drilled for HR, but if the K/BB keeps trending like recently(last 5 outings: 9 IP, 10/0 K/BB) then that's a tradeoff I'm fine with as long as it's not an epidemic

Any team that views Bellinger as a capable CF(and there's little reason not to) is going to see that as a CF he's been worth 7-8 wins the last 2 years and is hitting FA without a QO at age 29. I won't plant a flag and say he's definitively getting that Chapman deal, but I think people have gotten in their heads that he needed to repeat his 2023 to make opting out worth it. He mostly just needed to demonstrate that 2021-22 was the fluke, and while he isn't without his imperfections, he has done that.

Shaw back in the lineup and has a pair of hits

Bertz's point is if they were going to do that, they'd probably have brought another RP from Iowa along with Wingenter

72 mph single, 70 mph single, HR in 1/30 ballparks, fun inning

welcome!

The Cubs' odds being 7% are significantly impacted by what projections think the Cubs will do the rest of the season. The Cubs' odds of making the playoffs are much much higher if they have a good to great September, which means the Cubs' playoff chances are much more in their own control compared to 3 weeks ago.

2/3 with a BB & HBP for Smith, hitting .474 in his first week at A+

what in the world is new york looking at, that ball was extremely fair