Transmogrified Tiger

Lindenwood very recently got bumped up to D1, so they're basically the 'FCS patsy that's close enough to take a bus to a buy game' but less familiar than the other names you normally see(e.g. Murray State, Eastern/Western Illinois, etc)

Smith finished 2/5 with a 3B, BB, and 2 K

1B is part of the 5 spots, but yes it is marginally more difficult if the addition is 1B/DH only. But only marginally, there's sufficient positional flexibility in the group already that it's far from overloaded.

No one! Between rest, inevitable injuries, and the possibility of declining performance, this will not be an actual problem in practice. 6 players for 5 spots means everyone averages 135 games. There are only 4 Cubs currently playing above that rate and 2 of them are Swanson and Hoerner who aren't relevant to this particular dynamic.

Manzardo in Cleveland might be another one, though Naylor being one year from FA is a lot less permanent than Freddie Freeman. Maybe Curtis Mead too? Of course, the counter-argument is that you can just give that opportunity to Alcantara/Caissie pretty easily since they aren't exactly of worse pedigree.

I'm not sure why you'd make a significant $/trade investment in 2 SP, especially without having Wicks/Brown outgoing that offseason. For me the team has 4 additions of significance to make, you can turn the dials on your preferred amount of money/prospects to invest in each: Catcher - FA options here are mostly Jansen and possibly Kelly, trade options are probably more pie in the sky but could include most of the AL West(O'Hoppe, Langeliers, Raleigh). This is also a place where I could see a buy-low trade of some sort but probably not a Busch trade for someone with no MLB experience given the position Bat - Yes, even with Bellinger opting in. The team needs more thump if it's going to go with a defensive spine of Amaya/Swanson/Hoerner/PCA. FA could include Soto, Alonso, Santander, Martinez; Trade options include Vlad, Tucker, Brandon Lowe, and certainly others. Possible to see essentially another Busch deal here if the price is right SP - It's been Jed's MO to add a SP per offseason and with the injuries to the young arms I expect this to be no different. FA can range from Burnes to Eovaldi to Flaherty to Bieber to Buehler, trade options range from a Mariner to a Marlin to Keller and others. I don't expect a buy-low trade given you don't want to pay to add an arm you don't have any more confidence in than Wicks/Brown/Assad/Wesneski, but it's not *impossible* Late inning RP - too many options to mention, but an 8 figure or close to it salary should probably be expected, or an equivalent trade cost if it's for someone pre-FA

The motivation behind that type of decision(which is missing the apparently copious examples to begin with?) is not some ambiguous loyalty to home grown players, it's about asset allocation through the roster and where it makes sense to put your chips. Catcher is a position where most backups start 50 games a year, so it does make sense to put resources into the position. We know Jed thinks this way because he put non-trivial money into Gomes with Contreras still around. And this offseason there are fewer holes to put resources in than there have been in his tenure, increasing the likelihood that he's not gonna just count on Amaya for 130 starts and call it a day.

My current SP target fixation is one I've liked for a long time but there's never been a promising enough opportunity: Mitch Keller He's a solid SP north of Taillon quality that fits the rotation well(RHP, strong velo, good durability to date) who is on a contract that won't hamper other spending. The Pirates structured his extension so that next year is when his dollar figure jumps 10 million, which they may not love given their payroll and the depth they have already. They have lots of position player needs, which fits a consolidation trade among the AAA 'surplus' pretty well. The main question is if they have any hesitation doing such a deal in division(I would guess at worst there's a slight premium) and what they think their competitive timeline is so if they might want to hold out for more immediate MLB impact than the Alcantara/Caissie/Ballesteros cohort.

I'm pretty sure that wouldn't make it a player option, the buyout is what he gets if he chooses to opt out.

PCA before the all-star break: 174 PA, 63 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR PCA since the all-star break: 129 PA, 119 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR

that's a balk, come on

Counsell with the 5D chess to have his 8-9 hitters tormenting pitchers over and over

YES, he has a 116 wRC+ and has been worth nearly 3 wins. In 2022 he had a 115 wRC+ and a 2.4 WAR in 111 games, and in 2023 he had a 137 wRC+ and was over 4 wins. He's good.

I've never seen so many people immediately think a career 117 wRC+ hitter is terrible and work backwards from that vibe to make terrible argument after terrible argument about how he's not good.

PCA is the starkest example of 'development is not linear' that I've seen in a long time

I think it matters less to Juan Soto or Pete Alonso than it does to say, JD Martinez. If you're paying a guy 9 figures you can do so with full knowledge of his preferences, which is then what you pay Counsell record money to marry with what's best for the team(note that Seiya DHing more than ever has not hurt his production or seemingly caused any acrimony). But a guy who is less certain of his spot in the pecking order and/or is wanting to go to a good situation for his next contract may weigh that differently. The good news is that there aren't a lot of those guys considering the main options are over the top(Soto, Alonso) or trade targets who you're only impacting their chances of re-signing(Vlad, Lowe, etc). Mayyybe Santander especially given how he had to deal with so many bats around in Baltimore, but he's kinda playing himself closer to the Soto/Alonso tier.

The way to think about playoff optimism is they just need to keep winning series. The Braves are the only team they have an impractical path to pass at current rates, so you just take care of your business and hope Atlanta has a 4-6 stretch or so in the next couple weeks to put you within 2-3 games for the final stretch. It's unlikely of course, but the part that's out of their hands is 1) only one team and 2) that team doesn't have to completely faceplant in order to bring the race back to the range where normal variance could happen. Also, you can enjoy the Cubs playing good baseball! Even if the games become dead rubbers, the team isn't set to have a dramatic makeover in the offseason, so playing well means good things for 2025.

Declining performance at the plate and having a tweener profile in a group that had a number of other OF options. He's not exactly a CF and even at his best was a slight stretch offensively in a corner, so the roster math always pointed towards finding a true CF and/or giving opportunities to the O'Neills, Walkers, and currently Burlesons of the world.

Annoying to have to use Hodge after Palencia had strike 3 on Reynolds go uncalled to end the game

Ease Brennen's pain

If you want to be pessimistic, you can point to Shaw's swing not really being geared for loft and that probably capping out the amount of HR pop he can get to at the MLB level, at least relative to Happ. If you want to be optimistic, you can point to Shaw being short-levered and already showing really promising ability to barrel the ball, so there isn't a structural reason he couldn't gear his swing towards that more if desired.

This would've been the Nationals -> San Diego deadline and not this past offseason, but I believe I've heard that? Also Carlson has a 117 wRC+ and has the highest average EV of his career in Tampa.

Considering he's going back on the mound next year, continuing at his pace from the last couple years for 4 more years will get him very close to 60 WAR.

Sahadev with a write up on Smith: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5725396/2024/08/27/cubs-prospect-cam-smith/