Transmogrified Tiger

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how about instead of appealing to 3rd you just call that pitch a strike since it was over the plate

hit probability on that velocity and angle is probably 102%

did I miss something why is Almora hitting and not Contreras

who is responsible for PNC's dimensions who hurt them when they were younger

He didn't get an AB yesterday, they IBB'd him. He struck out his first PA, was IBB'd in the 9th. ack, that one's on coach tracy

that home run pisses me off McCutchen hasn't hit a fastball north of 91 mph in 3 years and you start him with a slider

He didn't get an AB yesterday, they IBB'd him.

Nobody ever claimed they would. But I don't think it's a stretch to say their rotation is better than ours. Any numbers or metrics you want to show will prove it. Worry all you want about the Cubs turning things around, I might disagree but at least there's some logic to it. This chicken littling about the Brewers is just sad though. They are not good, they've had a multitude of things go incredibly well and they're even with the Cubs in the loss column. To belabor this point, everyone has been terribly disappointed with Arrieta, who has a 4.68 ERA entering tonight. Here's the Steamer rest of season predictions for the Brewers 5 best starters: Nelson: 4.56 Anderson: 4.66 Davies: 4.52 Garza: 5.00 Guerra: 4.93

And that's why the Brewers have run away with the division. Nobody ever claimed they would. But I don't think it's a stretch to say their rotation is better than ours. Any numbers or metrics you want to show will prove it. Worry all you want about the Cubs turning things around, I might disagree but at least there's some logic to it. This chicken littling about the Brewers is just sad though. They are not good, they've had a multitude of things go incredibly well and they're even with the Cubs in the loss column.

In the book Crazy '08 they talk about how in the early days of baseball the ground rules were less defined. For example, Pittsburgh had a home game after heavy rainfall/flooding and they just decided any ball that reached the outfield was a ground rule double rather than have outfielders. That made more sense than the dimensions of PNC.

I'm pleased. But their offense is dangerous as hell. And their rotation is better than ours. The Milwaukee rotation is Jimmy Nelson, a broom, the guy inside Bernie Brewer, the ghost of Bob Uecker, and Matt Garza's goatee.

the Brewers, previously destined to steamroll the Padres, have split the first two games, both requiring extra innings

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He's not on the list but I'll reiterate that I would do terrible things to convince the Jays to trade Stroman. Things that don't make sense in foresight or hindsight. Outside of that, I continue to be a fan of Quintana but that's unlikely for external reasons alone. Gray is conflicting, there's a lot to like about him when he's on the mound but having forearm and lat injuries in the last 12 months is terrifying. Samardzija and Cueto are both worthy targets but I bet against either being dealt. Cobb could be interesting in a Matt Moore sense, but on that team I'd rather see if they've come down on what the ask would be for Odorizzi. There's others where you could see a possible but less likely chance of the player being dealt(Teheran, Norris) too, and that almost feels more likely since the front office has been unorthodox with most pitching acquisitions.

I know that in general we've always needed thousands of innings to get a clear picture for a fielder but I feel like over the last couple years people have been much more comfortable citing SSS in those metrics. How many do you think will give us enough of a sample? I think you're looking at around 1500 innings or so before you'd take any large variations too seriously, especially for someone where we have no statistical baseline. The other thing is that you have to consider what you're measuring. For example, Bryant has a -2 UZR to start the year and I don't think that's really undeserved. It doesn't invalidate his +6 in the previous 2000+ innings at 3B, but guys have struggles defensively just like they have slumps at the plate. I still expect Bryant to be a plus defender going forward. That particular example doesn't match Almora's reputation/numbers mismatch to my eyes, but it's still an important concept.

Almora has 30 games worth of innings in CF, and UZR says he has missed 8 in zone plays out of 59, and made 18 (!) out of zone plays. We all know that UZR at 1/5 of a season levels is nigh useless, and it really is borne out if you look at that granularity because that combination seems pretty nonsensical when paired with what I've seen of Almora in CF.

Meanwhile, none of the 10 NL teams currently out of playoff position are within 2 games of the playoffs. The four teams that are closest to playoff position are all in the Central. The Reds (last place) are 6.5 out while the Marlins (2nd place) are 10. The NL is having a weird year. It's just as stratified as was expected, but a lot of presumed contenders have been outright bad. For all the frustrations of the Cubs season, they're at .500. Some other presumed contenders in the NL: Cardinals: 76 win pace Mets: 74 win pace Pirates: 73 win pace. Giants 61 (!) win pace

Some really good stuff. A lot of the areas we've struggled in, that We Got the Whole 9 has mentioned... we did those things well. They were legit hits. Crisp line drives. The 6 hits were all between 0-20° launch angle. Four of them went the other way. Really good to see. I still contend that the biggest issues contributing to the offensive woes is our undying love for pulling the ball and making it probably as easy as we can for defenses to position themselves properly and take away several would-be hits every game. It's obviously not an exact science but when you know the team is going to mostly pull or stay up the middle you take a lot of the guesswork out. Obviously you lose a lot of hits to pull-side, but also many up the middle as well. This, combined with our decreasing authoritative contact has really brought our BABIP down. I know that you mentioned last year our EV was nothing to write home about; nobody in the top 100. But I think this year it hit such a low that we have to acknowledge it as a problem. Just not enough truly hard contact. A ton of the mushy-middle. Not enough line drives. I feel like the guys are about to go on a tear. June has been very solid. These two things are generally mutually exclusive. There were 4 opposite field hits in the 9th, and only La Stella's was over 85 mph exit velocity.

b-hacks and great Bryant baserunning, this is a very 2016 inning

welp, see ya later

what type of camera work was that, made me think it was fair by 50 feet

new rule: if you hit it so far it crosses state lines it's a home run no matter where the idiots on the home team put the fence

Tommy just hits

13 of 15 AL teams are in playoff position or are within 2 games of playoff position, and one of the two teams that are not are the White Sox who pretty much refuse to trade with the Cubs. What an infuriating outcome.