Transmogrified Tiger

Right, and if the season ticket base starts dwindling, there's gonna be less money going to the team(individual buyers paying less per seat for these weekday games than STH) and paid attendance goes down with it(since some individual buyers aren't paying the prices without that STH subsidy)

I think if you want the case for Hendricks optimism, it's in both his history and his current results. His recent results are bad, but not bad in a way that suggests the way he got hitters out before doesn't work any more. He's reliant on elite command, and he doesn't have that right now. His history also shows that more often than not, his worst month is at the beginning of the season, which logically checks out given that his feel and command should improve through repetition. That's not to say 'don't worry he's fine', his end of 2021 was bad and eventually age will rob him of margins that he previously needed, even in terms of consistent command. Maybe that means he goes from an ERA below 3.5 to above 5.5 in a snap. But I think you can also make the case that a feel-dependent pitcher who regularly has subpar starts to the season, coming off an abbreviated spring training after a lockout(and potentially adjusting to the new ball) has room for (significant) improvement that wouldn't be much of a surprise.

I think I've made this point before, but I think it highlights that the gap between Liga MX and MLS is really just the gap in the top 2-3 Liga MX spenders and who happens to be at the top of MLS the rest of the year. After last night, MLS v. non-Monterrey(Tigres & Rayados) teams are .500 in the current format that started about 5 years ago. So the Sounders definitely benefitted from neither of those teams(or Club America if they built a good team) being in this year's tournament, but also MLS sends unworthy teams to CCL fairly often through the domestic cups(especially the Canadian Championship), so that doesn't take away from the accomplishment or statement on league quality.

Strumpf raised his OPS from .764 to .835 today

Honestly the 2 walks are more exciting than the HR when it comes to Velazquez. If he's gonna be selective enough to not just be a hacker who runs into some bombs his chances of being more than a platoon guy are much higher.

Hard to say for sure, but I think that might be lined up to be a Wicks start? In any case, with Herz, Wicks, Franklin, and Palencia, there's a very high likelihood you're gonna see someone interesting.

Wisdom has stared at multiple fastballs down the middle for strike 3 tonight

Ben Lindbergh has a good article on how the pitcher roster limits are a step in a good direction to stem some of the tides that have made the game more difficult to watch: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2022/5/2/23052714/pitcher-roster-rules-limit It'll take some time to sort out, but if you take the pitcher limit down to 13 or 12, get the pitch clock in place, keep the new ball that appears to be closer to pre-juiced ball norms, and maybe get some other minor things in place(larger bases, shift restrictions), I think that could do a lot to make the game zippier and more entertaining.

Anecdotally it seems like a lot of hitters have improved over the last couple weeks, so I thought I'd check on it more holistically. Here's the prospects by level that Fangraphs has scouting data on and their performance from the 8th to the 17th, and then after that. Iowa - 1 player, -83 points of OPS Tennessee - 4 players, average +368 South Bend - 5 players, average +309 Myrtle Beach - 5 players, +296 This is more interesting than it is proof of something, because opponent quality can vary and the methodology is very simple(e.g. I feel better about Ball's -40 than I do about Preciado's +184), but the consistency across levels and over a number of players is noteworthy. For the hitters at least, it's giving me an extra reason to not think too too hard about their season lines until we get to Memorial Day.

You'll never convince me Rowdy Tellez isn't a lab experiment to create the most insufferable slow pitch softball player imaginable

Eyeballing gameday it seemed a bit unlucky. "fly ball" single, walk where Gameday had at least one very bad ball call, bunt single, K, bases clearing double, K, HBP, bases clearing double, pick off. In average circumstances that's probably a 2 run inning, with good luck, scoreless.

What do you mean? He’s a non entity that got his taste of th big leagues and will be gone soon. The cubs won’t take a morale hit by moving on. It’s not like they’d be unfairly screwing over a guy. To be clear, I'm not talking about trading him creating that type of reaction. The guy had 200+ PA(his first real MLB opportunity) with a .403 wOBA, following AAA seasons with .403 and .411. Keeping him on the bench or sending him to AAA because of yet unseen regression probably wouldn't be well received on the player side.

Canario started the year 2 for 17 with 9 K's, since then: 63 PA, .327/.413/.636, 4 HR, 21/7 K/BB

I'm also wondering if the opportunity afforded by the May roster cut down might embolden Jed to be more decisive than he otherwise would. Especially in the case of Hermosillo, Schwindel, and Ortega, it's one thing to say 'okay we're gonna play Rivas and Frazier more' and keep them around if they break out of the rut, since who else are you gonna call up, Deichmann? But if you have a one time opportunity afforded by the roster squeeze, maybe you say 'okay that's enough' because you have the chance to give someone external that spot at minimal cost.

It's frustrating that Schwindel turning back into a pumpkin is a bit of a no-win scenario even if you can see it coming. The poor production and opportunity cost of finding someone better/more permanent is obvious, but his age and track record means there wasn't another way that isn't simply trading him for nothing or benching/demoting him(which isn't great for morale/player reputation).

I might be the biggest Madrigal optimist here, but buddy you can't swing through a center cut 94 mph fastball from a lefty

Thompson relieved Leiter's last start so my money would be on trying to get 4-5 out of him before Kilian. But Kilian's last start did line up with Leiter's so it's not impossible.

also PCA is 2 for 3 with a HR, as one does

it's very subtle, see if you can spot when Triantos turned the corner First 41 PA: .111/.195/.139, 9/4 K/BB Next 34 PA: .500/.559/.567, 5/4 K/BB

Yeah he's like 32nd out of 110 OFs in wRC+ that have at least 40 PA. Not at all sustainable, but not the problem on the whole. Boy I got sick of first basemen that don't catch the ball a lot quicker than I thought I would.

2 more hits and a walk for PCA he has a 16/14 BB/K in 98 PA as a professional

I'm not bored enough to comb through gamelogs, but Javy had some real rough stretches, I believe Soler too. You also won't see me throwing out any silver linings on a case like Howard. His entire career has been dreck, with a ~25 game BABIP fueled stretch at the tail end of last year being the highlight. He's more than used his mulligan. But if Caissie or any of these guys have a 2022 like Nwogu's 2021, 6 absolutely abysmal weeks and then generally kicking ass, I'll worry very little about it given their ages. Nwogu is a pretty good counter point, though between the 2020 season and iirc his college->draft->rest of 2019 he had a big gap without regular competitive games that would help explain such an initial slump. Neither of Caissie or Preciado have that type of built in excuse. But even if we set that aside, the logjam is something to come back to. Canario, Pinango, Nwogu, Caissie, and probably soon PCA is a lot of outfielders even with the DH and Caissie technically able to play some 1B(and it's not a great look for the other 1B/DH options not currently faceplanting). This isn't a crisis since we're exactly one muscle strain from it being fixed with normal rest and rotation for a month(at which point maybe Caissie is hitting, Canario's promoted, a different player is hurt, someone is traded, etc), but with the prerequisite that PCA and Caissie's trends continue, I think by memorial day at the latest it becomes prudent to swap them.

I feel like there's a difference in degree in any adversity the championship core faced as minor leaguers, and someone like Howard struggling to hit, and then again with someone like Caissie or Preciado who are just getting completely overmatched. I'm not a swing doctor and it's only been 50 PA so I'm fine with a holding pattern for now, but this is a step beyond what we've seen folks work through in the past and if it continues I think you have to do something if only for the player's psyche.

I think formation has a decent amount to do with it, recently Tuchel has favored a 3-4-1-2 and that's not a snug fit for Pulisic's skill set. Werner being in good form and a bit more natural as a second striker doesn't help either.