Transmogrified Tiger

Wisdom has stared at multiple fastballs down the middle for strike 3 tonight

Ben Lindbergh has a good article on how the pitcher roster limits are a step in a good direction to stem some of the tides that have made the game more difficult to watch: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2022/5/2/23052714/pitcher-roster-rules-limit It'll take some time to sort out, but if you take the pitcher limit down to 13 or 12, get the pitch clock in place, keep the new ball that appears to be closer to pre-juiced ball norms, and maybe get some other minor things in place(larger bases, shift restrictions), I think that could do a lot to make the game zippier and more entertaining.

Anecdotally it seems like a lot of hitters have improved over the last couple weeks, so I thought I'd check on it more holistically. Here's the prospects by level that Fangraphs has scouting data on and their performance from the 8th to the 17th, and then after that. Iowa - 1 player, -83 points of OPS Tennessee - 4 players, average +368 South Bend - 5 players, average +309 Myrtle Beach - 5 players, +296 This is more interesting than it is proof of something, because opponent quality can vary and the methodology is very simple(e.g. I feel better about Ball's -40 than I do about Preciado's +184), but the consistency across levels and over a number of players is noteworthy. For the hitters at least, it's giving me an extra reason to not think too too hard about their season lines until we get to Memorial Day.

You'll never convince me Rowdy Tellez isn't a lab experiment to create the most insufferable slow pitch softball player imaginable

Eyeballing gameday it seemed a bit unlucky. "fly ball" single, walk where Gameday had at least one very bad ball call, bunt single, K, bases clearing double, K, HBP, bases clearing double, pick off. In average circumstances that's probably a 2 run inning, with good luck, scoreless.

What do you mean? He’s a non entity that got his taste of th big leagues and will be gone soon. The cubs won’t take a morale hit by moving on. It’s not like they’d be unfairly screwing over a guy. To be clear, I'm not talking about trading him creating that type of reaction. The guy had 200+ PA(his first real MLB opportunity) with a .403 wOBA, following AAA seasons with .403 and .411. Keeping him on the bench or sending him to AAA because of yet unseen regression probably wouldn't be well received on the player side.

Canario started the year 2 for 17 with 9 K's, since then: 63 PA, .327/.413/.636, 4 HR, 21/7 K/BB

I'm also wondering if the opportunity afforded by the May roster cut down might embolden Jed to be more decisive than he otherwise would. Especially in the case of Hermosillo, Schwindel, and Ortega, it's one thing to say 'okay we're gonna play Rivas and Frazier more' and keep them around if they break out of the rut, since who else are you gonna call up, Deichmann? But if you have a one time opportunity afforded by the roster squeeze, maybe you say 'okay that's enough' because you have the chance to give someone external that spot at minimal cost.

It's frustrating that Schwindel turning back into a pumpkin is a bit of a no-win scenario even if you can see it coming. The poor production and opportunity cost of finding someone better/more permanent is obvious, but his age and track record means there wasn't another way that isn't simply trading him for nothing or benching/demoting him(which isn't great for morale/player reputation).

I might be the biggest Madrigal optimist here, but buddy you can't swing through a center cut 94 mph fastball from a lefty

Thompson relieved Leiter's last start so my money would be on trying to get 4-5 out of him before Kilian. But Kilian's last start did line up with Leiter's so it's not impossible.

also PCA is 2 for 3 with a HR, as one does

it's very subtle, see if you can spot when Triantos turned the corner First 41 PA: .111/.195/.139, 9/4 K/BB Next 34 PA: .500/.559/.567, 5/4 K/BB

Yeah he's like 32nd out of 110 OFs in wRC+ that have at least 40 PA. Not at all sustainable, but not the problem on the whole. Boy I got sick of first basemen that don't catch the ball a lot quicker than I thought I would.

2 more hits and a walk for PCA he has a 16/14 BB/K in 98 PA as a professional

I'm not bored enough to comb through gamelogs, but Javy had some real rough stretches, I believe Soler too. You also won't see me throwing out any silver linings on a case like Howard. His entire career has been dreck, with a ~25 game BABIP fueled stretch at the tail end of last year being the highlight. He's more than used his mulligan. But if Caissie or any of these guys have a 2022 like Nwogu's 2021, 6 absolutely abysmal weeks and then generally kicking ass, I'll worry very little about it given their ages. Nwogu is a pretty good counter point, though between the 2020 season and iirc his college->draft->rest of 2019 he had a big gap without regular competitive games that would help explain such an initial slump. Neither of Caissie or Preciado have that type of built in excuse. But even if we set that aside, the logjam is something to come back to. Canario, Pinango, Nwogu, Caissie, and probably soon PCA is a lot of outfielders even with the DH and Caissie technically able to play some 1B(and it's not a great look for the other 1B/DH options not currently faceplanting). This isn't a crisis since we're exactly one muscle strain from it being fixed with normal rest and rotation for a month(at which point maybe Caissie is hitting, Canario's promoted, a different player is hurt, someone is traded, etc), but with the prerequisite that PCA and Caissie's trends continue, I think by memorial day at the latest it becomes prudent to swap them.

I feel like there's a difference in degree in any adversity the championship core faced as minor leaguers, and someone like Howard struggling to hit, and then again with someone like Caissie or Preciado who are just getting completely overmatched. I'm not a swing doctor and it's only been 50 PA so I'm fine with a holding pattern for now, but this is a step beyond what we've seen folks work through in the past and if it continues I think you have to do something if only for the player's psyche.

I think formation has a decent amount to do with it, recently Tuchel has favored a 3-4-1-2 and that's not a snug fit for Pulisic's skill set. Werner being in good form and a bit more natural as a second striker doesn't help either.

yeah Children's Mercy is close enough for a day trip so I'm strongly considering it

PCA's trajectory is gonna start intersecting with Caissie's really soon I think. PCA is a high enough value prospect that if he needs to be promoted he's gonna get promoted, but that creates a knock on decision given the South Bend outfield. Canario and Pinango are significant enough prospects in their own right to need everyday playing time, and Nwogu could use some reps too, while none of them are ideal promotion candidates themselves. That leaves Caissie, who is completely lost right now(5 for 45 w/ 1 2B and 3/23 BB/K) and hasn't yet shown any signs of turning a corner. We know from some recent experience(Howard) that the front office doesn't like admitting defeat on aggressive assignments, but we're already seeing this come to a head without PCA since Caissie hasn't played the last 2 games(and I haven't seen any sign of an injury). We can't be far from PCA and Caissie swapping teams, right?

Agreed, I missed the first half with my indoor game but was really not happy with the first penalty call, then completely shocked they upheld the second so I think the end result was fair with the balance of play and big calls. Next wednesday is gonna be an insane atmosphere, I've been at Lumen field for Sounders games when it's around 40k, I can barely imagine what that's like for the big games they get 60k+.

I am curious about how that progresses, because I think there's a lot of potential influences and I'm not sure which one is the dominant factor yet. The ball is clearly suppressing power in the early going on top of it being April after an abbreviated spring, which all could play a part and potentially change as the season continues. The personnel is definitely different, and for as much as I'm optimistic on the overall value of Hoerner and Madrigal, they aren't going to start putting a bunch of balls in the seats even on a hot streak. Then there's some guys hitting for less power than they have in the past(Happ, Villar, Ortega, Frazier, Schwindel), which could be those environmental factors, could be representative of a coaching overcorrection, or could be an individual competence issue.

Davis striking out 50% more while also cutting his IsoP in half from his short Iowa stint last year(which now have about an equal number of PA) is easily the most depressing thing about the early prospect season so far. Really hoping this is some early season weirdness(Davis has never played pro games in April, oddly enough), because him leading the line for the system not only solves some short term problems but makes the inevitable fizzles out at the lower levels easier to swallow.

Also, if we're talking about the bigger picture with roster construction or forward-facing expectations, I want to reinforce that 17 games just doesn't mean much, especially since the team isn't at some extreme like being 29th in runs or 2nd in IsoP, whatever. As a founding member of the "Schwindel is LaHair with a goofier smile" brigade, I've had to intentionally avoid making much in the way of declarations of his uselessness, because we're talking about less than 3 weeks of games, and coming off a lockout and abbreviated spring training. There isn't a magic line where all of a sudden with one more game everything becomes meaningful, but especially at the macro level I think you'd need some more extreme results(e.g. the Reds) before you claim the season thus far is the new norm, otherwise it's the type of conversation that's best waiting til Memorial day. This applies to the good stuff(Seiya, Thompson, the veteran relievers) too.

They've also scored 4+ runs in 10/17 games, and have yet to be shut out. Consistency we would have absolutely killed for essentially any year post 2016. 7-10 with ten games against the pirates and Rockies Disappointing for sure, even if the other 7 were quite strong opponents. If I’m looking for reasons explaining that disappointment, I’d go to SP(26th in starter ERA), randomness(everyone has multiple 7-10 spells in a season), and luck(2-5 in 1 run games) before I got to the offense or it’s specific slappiness.