Transmogrified Tiger

Devers has been piggybacking Wicks so they may not call up a MB starter.

it's not being done in a very sustainable way but it's nice to see Bote hitting well after that long layoff

I don't listen to a ton of Boog and JD but I haven't picked up on a lack of harmony. Especially if you compare to Boog's rapport with the lesser JD replacements he's had to deal with recently. I forget the specifics but remember laughing at how animated and nearly exasperated he got with one of the side convos he had with Sutcliffe last week, certainly not on the same scale compared to keeping up with JD's witticisms.

wow congrats to an all-time great

The Athletic did an interesting article where they asked the beat writers of most of the current contenders to weigh in on the likelihood of trading for Contreras: https://theathletic.com/3415733/2022/07/13/willson-contreras-mlb-trade-deadline/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983 Almost all of them are basically RIGBYs, "Willson is great, but he'll cost too much/the team likes their crappy catchers/etc". The one that hedges the least, and this may just be the writer's style/interpretation, is the Padres. So time to fire up the Willson + his salary for Myers and Campusano framework again.

It just makes way too much sense compared to other options. Alderson also was specific about saying how they don't want to deal from the top of the farm system(name-checking Alvarez and Baty) and lamenting the loss of PCA from last year, so there may be a pretty thin line to tread. Fangraphs finally got the Mets prospect list updated, which means we now have that to look from and it's including very recent reports/rankings so it should be more relevant than a November list for deadline purposes. A quick rundown of players that are interesting to me: - 3B Brett Baty - 55 FV - Big power corner infielder w/ .370 wOBA at AA. Seems like it's going to be very difficult to talk them into using him for Contreras, possibly even if Robertson was going too. - OF Alex Ramirez - 50 FV - Think a lot of Alcantara(young OF with tools and great Low-A performance) and a little bit of PCA(already at High A, possible CF). I like the value he represents but it's not a great fit with the Cubs org depth - SP Matt Allan - 45+ FV - Mets spent a ton of draft budget signing him and he has some big potential, but he's still rehabbing TJS and hasn't pitched since 2019(10 IP at R & A-). Not a great fit as a primary return and maybe ambitious as a secondary/more distant piece - 3B Mark Vientos - 45 FV - A rumored return for Bryant last year, Vientos is a probable 1B with big power and big swing and miss in the Wisdom mold, with a good not great AAA line. His report namechecking Bobby Dalbec is not inspiring, but it also points out he's much younger at same levels, and the Cubs have had some success reforming this profile's swing for greater viability. - SP Eric Orze - 45 FV - Orze hasn't started a game in his pro career but Fangraphs thinks he has the repertoire for it. He's already to AAA, but since he dosn't need to be rostered until next December you could take your time building up the innings - SP Jose Butto - 45 FV - SP with a solid fastball (sit 92-94) and a good changeup acquitting himself well in AA. Would make a nice bridge of potential rotation options between Kilian and Wicks/Herz - C Nick Meyer - 35+ FV - A plus defensive catcher with a .258/.381/.367 line and 23/31 BB/K (157 PA) seems like a really useful throw in for the current state of the org's catching

Wicks last 6 starts: 26.2 IP, 21 H, 8 R, 37/6 K/BB, 2 HR Wicks last 3 starts: 15 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 21/3 K/BB, 0 HR

Slaughter is such a fascinating player. After an early stolen base he's now 13/16 in SB at AA, and he's only played 33 games at Tennessee. This comes on the heels of being 8 for 8 in 20 games at South Bend.

I'll play devil's advocate since I think what you're saying makes sense, but there is another lens we can look through. In order to get back to competitiveness, the team needs to have generally unlikely things happen more than normal, and you do that by taking on more risk. There's lots of different types of risk(developmental risk with poor performers or players in low minors, age risk, contract risk, etc), but taking on injury risk can be a way to get ahead. Said another way, for a team that has some emergent pitching depth and will not be close to their payroll capacity even with a Rodon and other significant FA spending, is having Rodon's talent for 2023-2025+ worth paying for, even if it's not for 30 starts? I think you can make the argument that yeah you take the chance to have his upside and ability to anchor a postseason rotation, especially considering there are not any realistic internal options that look possible to do so in that timeline. This feels like justifying Rich Harden 2.0. I haven't followed Rodon closely enough to know if he's that fragile but I still have PTSD from all Harden's unrealized potential. Harden put up 4.0 fWAR in 38 starts that spanned July 2008 through 2009. From a quick game log scan he missed a maximum of 8 starts as a Cub, which is a downside I'd be more than happy with in this case. But even setting that aside, that is the risk you take. Sometimes the player gets hurt, maybe at an especially inopportune time. Sometimes they're, well, Rodon 2022. You can take the risk of that injury happening, or you can take the risk that an otherwise healthy pitcher gets hurt(look at Hendricks this year) or that adding a player without that risk doesn't get you the upside you need to be truly competitive(see all the Cub rotations since Arrieta left). I'm not going to plant a flag on Rodon personally, but in a world where even good starters aren't locks to go 6 innings, I think we should be careful about how we project the wounds from a different SP era to what the roster should be in 2023+.

What do we know about Alfredo Zarraga? Searching this forum shows an old Arizona Phil post that says he tops out in the mid-90s as of last year, and so far for Myrtle Beach he's overwhelming hitters: 10 G, 12.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 23/5 K/BB(a 46% K%)

If they've cooled on Martinez given his swing and miss issues at AA, that would probably work. Not very glamorous as a main piece from our end. I like Tiedemann, but a guy who will start 2023 in AA is a tough sell as the headliner unless other deadline deals are more immediately useful. No idea what to make of Groshans either. EDIT: BaseballTradeValues says Groshans and Tiedemann for Happ is right at the edge of possibility, so let's say that it's gospel this time and call it a day. I'm with muntjack on this one, that'd be a tough one to swallow. Value is value for the rentals, but personally I need to be bowled over on Happ. To be clear, I'm not endorsing that deal per se, just trying to solve the problem of what does a deal look like that from a cumulative value perspective might be accepted on both sides. And if it makes anyone feel better, the same guy wrote the 'trade for Effross' blog post and the Yahoo piece, so I remain skeptical that there's a match for Happ here.

Curious what the Jays would send our way for Happ. Everything they have seems either far too valuable or not nearly valuable enough. If they've cooled on Martinez given his swing and miss issues at AA, that would probably work. Not very glamorous as a main piece from our end. I like Tiedemann, but a guy who will start 2023 in AA is a tough sell as the headliner unless other deadline deals are more immediately useful. No idea what to make of Groshans either. EDIT: BaseballTradeValues says Groshans and Tiedemann for Happ is right at the edge of possibility, so let's say that it's gospel this time and call it a day.

I don't want any part of Rodon with his injury history. Obviously he is a great pitcher when healthy, and he is probably worth the risk for a team that is one piece away, but I am too afraid of the Cubs getting burnt by injuries and bad contracts at this stage in the rebuild. I'll play devil's advocate since I think what you're saying makes sense, but there is another lens we can look through. In order to get back to competitiveness, the team needs to have generally unlikely things happen more than normal, and you do that by taking on more risk. There's lots of different types of risk(developmental risk with poor performers or players in low minors, age risk, contract risk, etc), but taking on injury risk can be a way to get ahead. Said another way, for a team that has some emergent pitching depth and will not be close to their payroll capacity even with a Rodon and other significant FA spending, is having Rodon's talent for 2023-2025+ worth paying for, even if it's not for 30 starts? I think you can make the argument that yeah you take the chance to have his upside and ability to anchor a postseason rotation, especially considering there are not any realistic internal options that look possible to do so in that timeline.

Alcantara out of the lineup for the 2nd straight day. I'd assume he has a knock, but his last game action was the HR friday night which makes it a little odd.

I can mostly tune out Sutcliffe's attempts at analysis, but the dugout banter with the 'come ons' and the like push me over the edge thankfully this is a very good start

Newcomb got to face a lineup stretch with 5 LHH and mowed them down, 2 IP perfect w/ 4 K edit: they let him go a third inning, GO, BB, GIDP

PCA seems to be following the 'struggle at South Bend for 20 games and then turn it on' pattern that Caissie did, except he was just normal bad instead of the brutal sub-.400 OPS that Caissie was.

Someone has to

the bullpen is gonna be an adventure after the deadline

I should know better but rumors don't seem to exist until after the draft and maybe until the QO/int'l draft gets sorted, so I'm resorting to sharing Bowden's proposal from a 'one deal for each division leader' article. Contreras to Houston for Colin Barber and Misael Tamarez. Using Fangraphs, Barber is a 21 y/o OF(probably CF but maybe LF due to arm) and their 3rd best prospect (45 FV) who is torching high-A(.306/.414/.474). Tamarez is a 22 y/o SP and around their 20th best prospect (35+ FV) and seems like a tweener with good but not great stuff, mediocre command, and results to show for it in AA at the moment. While that would be underwhelming(the comments on the article are basically "all of these are dumb for the contender except the Astros one"), it does raise the question of what the Astros think of their catching situation. They've always prioritized defense/framing over having elite offense at the position, but also have had decent bats to play regularly or at least platoon/timeshare to keep the production decent. This year Maldonado is getting the bulk of the time with a 62 wRC+, Castro(who last year was the offensive bright spot) is hurt and unplayable with the bat, and they just called up one of their Top 5 prospects in Corey Lee(but he has a AAA wOBA around .300). Scoring runs is a bigger problem than their pitching too, so if they are making an upgrade to try to make sure they stay clear of the Twins and go deep in the playoffs, this is as good a guess as any. They do have a headliner that would be more appropriate for Willson, SP Hunter Brown(50 FV per FG) is pitching well in AAA and has big stuff. The question is are they interested in upgrading catcher at all, and are they interested in giving up what is now their consensus top prospect in a diminished system to do so for a rental?

that did not look like a swing

what in the world seiya

Imagine if someone told us before the season that Steele and Thompson would both in the rotation pitching like 3 win starters. I would've said some very dumb things about this team's chances

Frazier starting to get hot, in July he's up to 29 PA, .333/.414/.583, 3 HR, 4/8 BB/K

If it were up to me, I would pay Willson. I think he's a strong bat regardless of position when he's not worn down by catching, and the DH now means you don't have to limit him to 400 PA to do so. The front office doesn't seem to agree, or Willson is standing in the way (e.g. despite public comments he isn't signing until the offseason, or his contract demands are beyond the pale). In that reality, I think it's likely they can get more for him at the deadline than what the draft comp would be. Or even if the return were similar to the draft pick, I'd rather it be closer to MLB to help with hastening the competitive window. Happ I see as a 3 win LF who they have for 1 more season. The odds of him signing an extension at anything less than absurd prices are probably zero, imo. For his next contract he's not likely to be a 3 win LF, the club has lots of promising OF at many levels of the org already, and LF is one of the easiest spots on a roster to coax above average production without big spending or a slam dunk prospect. Given that outlook, if they can get a good return for Happ that provides something useful for 2023 and especially 2024(e.g. more Kilians/Madrigals, less Alcantaras/Canarios), then I think they can come out ahead. If they keep him, cool he's a good player and I don't think they should be afraid of QO'ing him after 2023(Hendricks + Heyward alone is 36 million coming off the 2023 payroll even before growing it from current/2023 levels) so they shouldn't be afraid of losing him for nothing. Though I am skeptical there's an extension for Happ that is a good idea that he'll also agree to, unless that comes with him as a FA in December 2023.