Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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This kinda makes the point. As a fan of a team you have to hope to be extremely fortunate with a draft pick, or you're at the whims of whatever a top player feels like doing for his next gig, sometimes both. For me at least it's difficult to be invested in a team that has so little autonomy relative to other sports in its ability to create a championship roster.
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I think the time has come and gone for Hosmer to make sense. He's a barely above replacement level 1B and I don't feel like the prospect capital you get by taking on his 3/40 is more useful to the organization than spending that 3/40 on the roster or in a different way.
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Eh, going into the playoffs this year there were like 8-9 teams you could’ve made a legitimate case for winning it. I think this has gotten a bit better, but a team with a top 3-5 player in the league has won like 12 of the last 15 finals. Sometimes that star is a bit emergent(like Kawhi with Toronto), but that top heaviness compared with the extreme player power in the league makes it a much more powerless existence for most NBA teams compared to other sports. At least in the Bulls case they're more attractive a literal destination than many others so they can break the cycle.
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Fangraphs revived an old Jeff Sullivan bit, the worst swings of the season so far: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-worst-swings-of-the-first-half-of-the-season/ Number 1 is Effross humiliating Jorge Alfaro
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I guess we’re interested in Dom Smith.
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Missed this from the other thread mention, but the same sentiment applies. Smith would basically be a waiver claim in acquisition cost, and if he shows signs of being fixed then you have a decent 1B/DH/LF option that hits left handed(which is sorely needed) on a roster that doesn't have a ton of promising 1B options. If he's still terrible you non-tender him and all you've lost were those at bats, which they don't have anyone more worthwhile to give at the MLB level anyway. -
Why would they want a 28 YO arb eligible 1B in any deal is what I’m wondering. Smith wouldn’t have much Value in a trade for prospects if they managed to turn him around. The Cubs would be stuck with an arb eligible albatross who is costing draft position and a shot at the #1 farm The team has a huge hole at 1B(never mind DH or LH hitting in general) and the best internal hopes at the moment are two guys(Mervis and Slaughter) with no pedigree who were both probably closer to being released than they were to Wrigley 3 months ago. If you think you can fix Smith, you have a potential short term solution at the position(he's under control thru 2024), and if he doesn't he shouldn't have cost you anything you'd miss and you can non-tender him. They aren't going to stop trying to find MLB solutions because they might win a couple games and sink a little in the draft lottery, to do so would be terrible process.
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BN summarizing a possibility Keith Law floated on his podcast, that Willson could go to San Francisco for Bart (and change): https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/07/20/could-the-cubs-try-to-target-mlb-ready-talent-over-prospects-in-a-willson-contreras-trade/ That's a fit I've wondered a bit about, but assumed it wasn't practical kinda like Alvarez for NY. Bart's K's are a definite concern, but as the link notes it is something the Cubs have had some organizational success in improving. Given the rest of the tools it's not hard to see a slight tweak essentially turning him into Mike Zunino.
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no one wants to watch the moon landing anymore
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My favorite thing they did, which also manifests itself in my favorite pick outside the top 5 rounds, was gamble on the unknowns with players that had recent TJS. If Horton had TJS a few months earlier, it's possible that he's considered the next Jon Gray come draft day, which might mean he doesn't make it to 7 and certainly means he doesn't come under slot. This also extends to Frisch, who was good and ready to step into a big role at a premier program while having strong SP building blocks before needing TJS. To get him in the 6th I think is shrewd business.
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we can have one shortstop, as a treat
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The Nationals roster is pretty bleak to look at. Here's the list of Cubs who are playing at a 2+ fWAR rate, and are under contract for next year: Hoerner Happ Suzuki Morel Wisdom Steele Thompson Stroman Now here's the same list for the Nationals: Soto Ruiz And if you keep Soto they have about 90 million committed next year just to him, Strasburg(31 IP since 2019), Corbin(5.84 ERA over last 50 starts), and Cruz's buyout.
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Yeah my (obviously biased) gut says the addition of Corbin means it should be either/or on Davis/PCA not both. I wonder if they're not properly accounting for Soto's top of the scale impending arb salaries. Yeah my assumption is they have a very generous accounting of his expected output and are using some aggregate placeholder to estimate arb salaries, plus some other stuff like their year-to-year inflation. Maybe more to the point, I find it really hard to see a team hitting all 3 of those requirements(young MLBers, top 4 prospects, Corbin) unless there's some very specific circumstances(weak farm, marginal young MLBers, peak competitive window). 2 out of 3 feels very possible for an aggressive team winning a deadline bidding war, but all 3 crosses into absurdity. Or said another way, by taking Corbin you're paying for Soto at FA rates right away, Soto's production isn't so cartoonish that it's worth locking that in for 2 years at the cost of 150 million in young player capital.
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Starting to struggle a bit with the surplus value calculations that lead to that much of a package. Soto's best season was 7 fWAR, if we assume 10 million per win, that's about 175 million in value before he hits FA assuming career highs straight through. Then you pay him 55-60 million for those 2.5 years and pay that much again for Corbin to provide less than 20 million in value himself. The best case scenario for an acquiring team is you're getting about 85 million in surplus value for Soto and Corbin, probably a bit less. That's like 2 very good prospects or one good major leaguer and one prospect territory, not really godfather offer territory. Yes the deadline raises prices, Soto's value consolidation is notable, and maybe you pay more for the right to try to talk him out of FA, but I struggle with any team that's not already a contender with a pretty specific roster hole/prospect/young major leaguer combo coming out ahead with a price tag like that.
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Julio's runs were very fun, and the final was pretty good, but the format is incentivizing stuff that make it hard to follow and appreciate. The split screen plus rapid fire pitches because of the timed rounds meant that you barely could follow the flight of half the home runs. Unless it was said on the broadcast(which I muted after BCS came on) I have no idea what home runs were the furthest or who had the best average distance. Some of my best HRD memories are of guys hitting the ball impossible distances, and that's been replaced by a made for TV format that pays lip service to majestic bombs and instead makes it an impressive test of endurance through speed swinging. That's not objectively bad, but I think it's fair for some to prefer more emphasis on the extremes of how far a ball can be hit instead of a speedrun. Especially with the camera work/tracking that objectively is difficult to follow at times.
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That's how many Jacksons were born in his birth year
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A couple to full season ball(Horton, Birdsell) a couple to the complex league(Ferris, Mule), a couple of the senior signs might be relievers real quick(Hull), and a couple probably need pitch lab/dev list/rehab time(McGwire, Frisch).
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From PG's class of 2022 rankings:
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Joyce going to the Angels is so on brand feels like MLBs writers are getting lazy.
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Yes. The Cardinals have been successful with trading for big players, but their overall conservatism and frugality means they target already extended players so the contract brings the trade market and player cost down. They don’t win bidding wars in FA or trade.
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It got mentioned last night, but the Day 1 picks make it clear that they really trust their pitching development work. With the amount of success they’ve had with top 5 round talents(Thompson, Steele, Wicks, Herz, several relievers), and Kantrovitz’s track record, I find it hard to get too upset with that path, especially with none of the moonshot HS bats available at 7. I also like that they apparently (with media talk caveats assumed) got their top choice with pick 2, since you can never tell what’s gonna happen with 40 picks in between. What I don’t like is the seeming intentional under slot strategy. The optimistic version of this is that their grades on Horton were as good as any of the other options so they get a similar talent at 7 and get better talent later on. But (to use round numbers) if they went for two 45s instead of a 50 and 40, I really don’t like that approach when you’re picking in the top 10. There’s a small part of me that kinda wishes Horton goes for slot or close to it, because I don’t care about them matching media consensus and it would reflect a likely better process.
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Love this pick. What’s his name? What position does he play?
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I imagine Hawkins’ reaction would basically be “you can do that?!?!” I’m not gonna imagine for a second this would happen, but if you did you also would have a pretty quick opportunity to restock with Happ and Contreras trades plus a top 10 pick(and probably another next year). That might seem contradictory in intent, but they may just not want to keep Contreras for his 30s, and trading Happ rather than DHing him or Soto could be a preferable path. Soto might be enough to encourage a Correa signing, which you pair with a SP and all of a sudden you’re cooking with gas.
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If you use Baseball Trade Values as a crude starting point, you're basically at “Washington picks their 5 favorite players in your org and maybe that gets in the ballpark”
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Per the article, the offer was for 15 years(29M AAV), but didnt specify if there were any deferrals the Lerners love.
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Jordan Wicks and DJ Herz Promoted to AA
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
wow good for Riley Martin
