Transmogrified Tiger

Mervis continuing this trick of improving his peripherals at increasing levels is something else. At this trajectory he’d be prime Yuli Gurriel at the MLB level after starting the year with a .676 OPS at Myrtle Beach to his name.

First time at Wrigley in 8 years, this has been a frustrating game

Estrada goes K, K, GO in the 8th Rodriguez goes IF 1B, K, K, GO in the 9th

If they don't bring back Willson it nets out, which is how most well-run teams with money have approached the QO. Those teams tend to be picking a bit lower than the 2023 Cubs will, but I don't think that's a huge deterrent. What's maybe the bigger incentive for Correa than the QO is age, on a mega deal those 18 months he has over Turner and 2 years over Bogaerts make a real difference.

The new scheduling tweaks are gonna take some getting used to. Only one trip to Busch(would be 2 but for the London games), and series against every AL team.

3+ wins from 2B without spending time higher on the defensive spectrum is pretty good, but the BABIP brings up the other point about Madrigal I've made before. He's supposed to be a hit tool outlier, it's his defining valuable trait that stands apart and why people put a 70 grade on it. Madrigal hitting .320 for an extended stretch with no HR and few Ks(and the BABIP that creates) shouldn't be thought of as an extreme outlier. It shouldn't be the *expectation*, but even if you drop him to something like .300/.360/.350 over a larger sample, you're still talking about an above average player on a team that could use more of them. As of today his MLB career even with multiple ups and downs is 130 games, 504 PA, .296/.343/.364 for a 98 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR. he gets lazy 70 grades on his hit tool simply for never striking out, his ZiPS babip is still .307 doing unexpectedly well "for an extended stretch" and unexpectedly poorly for an extended stretch adds up to an overall liability, why are we talking ourselves so hard into Aaron Miles 2.0 Not swinging and missing and still hitting .300 at every level is really hard to do and representative of a skill and not some pitcher-induced tradeoff like we've seen from the likes of Theriot or Almora. Since he debuted the only other player with Madrigal's playing time, a sub-10% K rate and a .290 average is Arraez(5 fWAR in 1000 PA). If anything I think people made up their minds that since Madrigal isn't going to hit for pop that he's obviously gonna be bad or hate him on aesthetic grounds for not having huge ceiling or having a crummy first month as a Cub. He's a perfectly useful player on the whole and when he's hot/makes improvements he's quite good. No one is trying to etch his name into the lineup 150 times or insist he's the leadoff hitter of the future, I'm enjoying his run of good form and think he can be useful on a good team(especially at pre-FA salaries).

3+ wins from 2B without spending time higher on the defensive spectrum is pretty good, but the BABIP brings up the other point about Madrigal I've made before. He's supposed to be a hit tool outlier, it's his defining valuable trait that stands apart and why people put a 70 grade on it. Madrigal hitting .320 for an extended stretch with no HR and few Ks(and the BABIP that creates) shouldn't be thought of as an extreme outlier. It shouldn't be the *expectation*, but even if you drop him to something like .300/.360/.350 over a larger sample, you're still talking about an above average player on a team that could use more of them. As of today his MLB career even with multiple ups and downs is 130 games, 504 PA, .296/.343/.364 for a 98 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR.

About how valuable is that plus bad defense plus whatever he does on the bases (I have no idea) Entering tonight he was at 0.3 fWAR in August, that line tonight probably bumps it to 0.4. Extrapolating to a full season from this small a sample is pretty fraught because rounding does a lot of dirty work, but ballpark you're talking about a 3 win player. That's partly because UZR and Statcast both like his defense at 2B and DRS thinks he's neutral this year after being bad last year. That's only 120 games' worth of innings in his MLB career though, so not conclusive and therefore your mileage may vary on that front.

Madrigal post-DL up to 65 PA, .321/.400/.357, 6/7 BB/K

Alcantara has had 4-5 games off this month, presumably to try to keep him from physically wearing down given his frame and the fact his previous career high was 41 games/174 PA in a season. It seems like it's working, these last 2 weeks he's 11 for 32.

Not a for sure non-tender given that the Dodgers won't be in a snug LT situation and they don't have abundant in-house CF options, but if they do non-tender him and he could be had on a short term deal that isn't too expensive, Bellinger could be a bit of a skeleton key for the offseason. LH bat with some pop that plays a legitimate defensive CF but also is at home at 1B, it gives you some real options in how you put the rest of the roster together. It's not without risk, the quoted article says ZiPS thinks the remainder of his career will look like Brant Brown, but that's why he's available and not super expensive. For example, an "aggressive" offseason could look something like Correa, Contreras, Bellinger, and trading Velazquez for Marquez. Aggressive is in quotes because it does take the overall payroll above where I think it's likely to be on opening day, but does so in a way that is consistent with how Jed has operated. It only adds 2 contracts longer than 1-2 years(Correa/Contreras), it prioritizes youth(only Contreras is even 29 on opening day), and it doesn't make longer commitments to pitchers. Add in your favorite cohort of relievers and maybe a bat-first rehab for free, and I think that team is looking pretty competitive.

No WIllson in either game's lineup, the ankle must be hurting him still.

I’d still like to know why they think shortening games will bring in more viewers. It also shortens the commercial/ad time, so that’s a revenue loser. I don’t buy there’s x thousands or y millions of people out there that will watch or attend more baseball over games being 20-30 min shorter. The commercial breaks are in the same spots they always are - between innings and pitching changes - so I don't think that part's an issue. Like you, I remain skeptical that casual fans are waiting to watch baseball in droves if the games are two and a half hours 162 times a year instead of three, but as long as the actual gameplay isn't being negatively affected I'm not against it. The gameplay is the point, the length is a side effect of making a more entertaining product. Games have become ponderous, if you make them move at a more entertaining pace(and hopefully also make changes to increase action in the game), you have something more people are gonna watch. Will that make TV ratings spike starting in April? No, it's a change for the long term health of the game that should hopefully have some short term impact, but the short term isn't the motivation.

They aren’t over the LT this year with Trout, Rendon, Ohtani, Upton and Pujols on the books? And they never hit it with that period of Wilson, Upton, Hamilton, Pujols, Trout overlap? Looks like it: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/los-angeles-angels/ Trout's megadeal didn't start til 2019, so Rendon/Ohtani and Wilson/Hamilton kinda netted out. Plus they've been so bad at player dev they're never paying much in the way of arb salaries that sneakily boosts payroll up.

I think Miley in particular would be an uphill battle, but not impossible. If you're only adding one SP then it needs to be someone who has higher ceiling or more certainty than Miley, probably both. If you're adding two then he becomes a little more feasible if the price is right, but since Miley doesn't have that upside, wouldn't be one of the Top 5 starters if everyone's healthy, and wouldn't be a great fit for the bullpen with his repertoire, I think they probably go their separate ways. Those things are far less true with Smyly, hence my interest on the last page.

Tommy Edman has 3.8 fWAR on the season. It's mostly based on the farcical idea that he's like a +20 SS, but league average offense up the middle and 25 steals is still plenty good/annoying.

Has anyone seen a specific number for Smyly's option next year? This year's salary, the incentives, and the buyout seem to be common knowledge, but I can't seem to find any place that spells out how much the option is for. Given the buyout isn't super substantial my guess is it's 8 figures, but given the ambiguity around the rotation and Smyly's strong finish I'm at least curious.

It could mean either. Thompson's injury and the DH means they need two starts this week, and Wesneski pitched on Friday so he wouldn't be a good option for Tuesday. They have an extra reliever right now anyway with Espinoza taking Thompson's roster spot, so there's flexibility. That said, if I had to guess I think you're right. If you're adding Wesneski to the 40 man to let him start Wednesday, I think he's probably a bit more 'ready' for taking several rotation turns at the MLB level.

10 games as of right now, but who's counting? I guess it all depends on what you think is a good team. The 2016 Cubs weren't playing teams with a .420 and below winning percentages (in their division). The Cardinals would be in 3rd place in the NL East, 2nd place in the NL West. The only division they would be leading other than the NL Central is the AL Central. They are the king of the dipshits, a wildcard team. The definition of mildly ok. I was talking about against .500+ teams when mentioning 5 games since that's the record you were quoting. At the same point in their schedule(after game 120), the 2016 Cubs had teams with a .433 and .425 record in their division, and the Reds finished at .420. But also we're putting too much emphasis on how much of an impact that has on another team's record. The difference between a .400 winning percentage and .450 at this point in the season is around 7 games out of 120, it's meaningful but not the difference in playing a playoff team vs. Eastwestern State University. The difference across a division schedule is only a couple of games on the high end, and this year it's mitigated by the NL Central being matched with the toughest AL division(the AL East) in interleague.

So you give the Cardinals the same number of games(it'll actually be more when the season ends), and they're ~5 games behind the Cubs team that won 103 games and is one of the best teams of the last 10-20 years. The Cardinals are not one of the top 3 teams in the NL, and they're a beneficiary of the division(which itself is just a couple games out of 162 difference compared to playing the NL East/West), but that doesn't mean they're mediocre or not having a legitimately good season.

GB, K, IFFB for Estrada in a perfect 8th

I like Palencia lots too but he's gone over 3 lower minors IP a whole 9 times over 32 appearances between 2021-2022. Starter in any traditional sense is prooooobably not happening Something interesting about Palencia is he’s averaging more innings per start this year than Walker Buehler did in his one full season in the minors (2017). I feel like it’s pointless to just give up on starting for pitchers who are still building up IP, show they can start so far and are slower movers (Palencia is over a year from the bigs still). I think that's fair, and though I think part of Palencia's particular IP limits are self-imposed through poor control, it's not like the rotation spot he takes now or over the next 12 months are so precious that he'd be stunting anyone else's development. At the same time, when I think of 'holding velocity deep into games', I think of hitting triple digit pitch counts/3rd time through the order/6+ IP, so I wouldn't use that as a particular point in his favor based on what he's done so far.

The replies to this are killing me

Are we really going to have to do this once a week for the rest of the season, where someone pretends the 1st round of the MLB draft is an efficient market, and the current Cubs roster is full of no one who can help the team beyond playing out this string? You don't even have to try very hard to see the appeal today, Stroman went 7+, Madrigal had another 3 hit day, Hoerner had a defensive highlight reel, etc.

Wesneski would be on regular rest for Thompson's spot. The other consideration is there's a lot of games without an off day, today is the 8th straight game and there are 16 in the next 15 days after today. Kilian seems like a decent bet for the 27th man on Tuesday's DH since he would likely be starting for Iowa on Tuesday.