Transmogrified Tiger

Estrada stayed up with expanded rosters, but yeah if there's someone you want to get a look at this year, Newcomb's not making any use of the roster spot.

Outstanding. (please be good and not have lost velo)

I did some quick searching on the format, is it still Top 4 conference champs get byes, top 6 conference champs get bids, and no other conference limits? I wonder if they're reconsidering the bye thing since the latest realignment/consolidation. EDIT: Looks like Auerbach's saying the Top 6 champs getting bids stays, but no other specifics confirmed in her quick story.

I've been trying to temper my expectations for Mervis for months now and we've reached the point where it's just going to be mean if he doesn't become a useful big leaguer.

I think the main difference between the deadline and the offseason(aside from Happ's value going down by a third) is that Jed's motivation may go up/asking price come down if he sees a need to use Happ's money elsewhere. Especially if he isn't planning on QO'ing or extending Happ, that marginal benefit could net out. But ultimately I'm with you in that it doesn't seem super likely, and the talking point is a byproduct of public/private information asymmetry. We do know Happ's contract situation and that he was rumored to be dealt before, we don't know who expressed various degrees of interest in any of the young OFs, who those teams might be willing to trade, etc.

seems to me like an easy win for the cavs. the firsts aren't going to very good. Maybe not initially. Cleveland isn't exactly a destination known for keeping or attracting superstars. That said I think most of their players are signed for at least 3 years so might only affect the last 2 years. That's part of why you've gotta bite the bullet on a trade, right? Talking a Mitchell-caliber player onto your team in FA is an uphill battle, though after this year would've probably been easier since they're a pretty surefire playoff team without the injury parade of last year. Ideally you draft one with one of those picks, but I also understand that when you've hit on several successes in a row(Garland, Mobley, Allen, even Sexton being successful enough to have some trade value), that you might need to take advantage of them all being young and under contract.

Gonna have to watch more than my customary 10 minutes of Cavs basketball this year. I don't know how much anything costs or who is good anymore, but seems like figuring out the rest of the roster when you've got Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/Allen in place for a couple years is easier than finding a big scorer to be a part of that core.

I think the argument is that the 40 man has an imbalance in players who are corner outfielders on a good team. Happ, Suzuki, Velazquez, Davis, Canario, Ortega, maybe toss Morel in that group too depending on the roster build(or PCA's ascent), and it's very deep with too much to go around, especially relative to the infield. So this offseason is a good time to make a decision and trade *somebody*, maybe more than one somebody. Happ is a more narrow trade fit than the guys with more team control(and is more unique than the rest for reasons you said), but the rewards are potentially higher because you also free up his money to do something more substantial with your offseason plans. Yes there's a quality gap between Happ and the youngsters/Ortega, but between their quality and the sheer numbers that difference is less than similar gaps in cost on the IF or on the pitching staff(because of how $$ misses compound on a staff like we've seen this year).

Took me a minute of wondering how there were more incoming that outgoing to realize it was September 1st. Nice to see Estrada get to stay for an extended audition.

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/09/01/cubs-prospects-have-some-of-the-best-tools-in-the-minor-leagues/ Brett aggregated the Cubs on BA's best tools lists. Strumpf being the best defensive 2B is the only real surprise, in my head I had him as a bat-only profile a la Dan Uggla/Todd Walker. The swing and miss jump this year is still pretty disqualifying given he's still only at AA, but at least if he shows modest improvement or even reverts more to his previous profile of fewer whiffs with fewer XBH, there may be a bench role for him yet.

If the SS is the only position player of substance you're adding and you subtract Happ, you could do a fair amount to upgrade the pitching staff. Something like Rodon and Smyly would probably be within reach, with the knock on effects for the pen(Thompson/Wesneski filling bullpen roles) on top of having money to replenish a new season's Robertson/Givens/etc. More likely though, you can scale that down to Taillon and Smyly, or Syndegaard and Smyly, and be able to add a Bellinger or a Narvaez(maybe both) to beef up that group. Plus you get *something* for Happ, and odds are with the current trajectory they would want that to be an MLB or near-MLB ready piece.

Piggybacking on this because I came to the thread to make this point unrelated to Contreras. I think it's likely that they'll be able to do some pretty significant spending, but they aren't going to be doing three different 5+ year contracts, and I think they'll stop a decent way short of the Luxury Tax. ~15 million under *feels* right for the team's current stage for reasons I can't completely articulate, though I think you can make arguments otherwise and ultimately it's a guess of what self-imposed limits they'll put on themselves. So if that's the limit, the only way to fill all the holes you want is to find a low cost option(5 mil or preferably less) for at least one of them, or dial back the pursuit of a star and their huge contract(one of the SS, Ohtani, Devers, Machado/Tatis, etc). I don't think anyone is convinced the latter is the best way to go, so you have to find that bargain to make the short sheet cover as much as possible. Catcher would be a great spot for that bargain, because there aren't a laundry list of guys to spend big money on to begin with, and between the nature of the position and the presence of Gomes you don't have to find a 150 game stud to make progress towards a competitive team. Combining this thought with the Happ conversation, I struggle with finding a good home for him since a one year deal for an LF is only interesting to so many teams, but the Jays were interested in him at the deadline, and Danny Jansen may be surplus to requirements with Kirk's emergence and Moreno being ready next year. If you were able to do something resembling Happ for Jansen, then you have a bunch of potential in-house options for LF(Velazquez, Ortega, Davis, Canario, maybe Morel if you add the right CF and IF), and Jansen will make 5ish million in arbitration which means you could still add a cohort in Free Agency like Correa, Bellinger, Smyly, and a fairly high dollar SP(up to 20M) and still have room to refresh the bullpen.

They might make me look dumb and put up 4 in the second half, but Liverpool may be in some real trouble. Van Dijk isn't a one man counter-killer anymore, and the midfield and their(admittedly 4th choice) other CB are gonna leak goals on the break too often to compete for trophies unless they tighten up or get more clinical with the ball.

17 WAR from Mookie/Freddie/Trea with 20% of the season still to play goes a long way. Their pitching staff is also beating their FIP about as much as the 2016 Cubs did.

Looks like Milan's current RB Calabria is their 25 y/o captain and their LB is Theo Hernandez, so unless either are hurt or about to be sold(a quick search didn't find anything but Calabria didn't play in their last match) I'm not sure if there's abundant playing time there.

Estrada's fastball spins like an old video game animation, really makes it easy to see how much ride it has

DJ Herz has 26 BB (and 8 HBP) in 22 IP at AA and hasn't walked less than 3 in any outing, it's not going great.

it is so funny to me that there are like 5 european superclubs that are consistently well run and the rest of them just point a money gun at everything that moves and fire their manager every 2 years because the only way you can tame a locker room like that is with types that alienate half the team in 18 months

lol I had the same thought, he was a senior sign and turns 23 before opening day!

I could look very dumb about this, but I think we could see Willson's market fail to materialize. It only takes one team to fall in love or have money burn a hole in their pocket, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he doesn't beat Grandal(4/73) in years or dollars.

I haven't started it yet but I've heard very good things. In terms of the whys, I'm pretty sure it's not a thing they did just to do the documentary, they've sunk serious money into the club(e.g. they brought in a striker who was successful at a higher level and went down a rung to play for Wrexham) so there's no ROI to be had. And because they've sunk money into the team my guess is it will work out okay for all parties involved. I don't think Wrexham's ticketed for the Premier league, but they can get back into League One(the highest level Wrexham has played at I believe), and probably make it to the Championship too. I want to like it because Rob seems like a really good guy. Not sure I'm with you on the 'serious money' part...from what I can tell they spent $2.5m on the club and then that record transfer was a little under $400k. Obviously a lot more costs involved, but it seems pretty reasonable (I think?) to recoup most of that in selling the doc to FX/Hulu. Agree that it will end up working out, seems like it's headed in the right direction so far, just have this negative feeling that it could be the first step to like...rich guy fantasy football 2.0? Serious money is a relative concern when we're talking about the English 4th tier. Documentaries not being a super lucrative business anyway, my thinking is that running the club at a mild loss for the doc isn't exactly a moneymaking venture you'd dream up if you didn't care about owning the team. As for rich guy fantasy football, that's kinda what lots of European soccer ownership is, it just depends on the ownership level of involvement. Boehly buying Chelsea and then wanting to press all the buttons would be a bad version of this, so it comes down to how much Rob and Ryan care to insert themselves into the day to day of running the team. Maybe that comes through more clearly in the documentary, but my baseline assumption is they lead busy and hectic enough lives as it is that I wouldn't guess they're itching to micromanage.

I haven't started it yet but I've heard very good things. In terms of the whys, I'm pretty sure it's not a thing they did just to do the documentary, they've sunk serious money into the club(e.g. they brought in a striker who was successful at a higher level and went down a rung to play for Wrexham) so there's no ROI to be had. And because they've sunk money into the team my guess is it will work out okay for all parties involved. I don't think Wrexham's ticketed for the Premier league, but they can get back into League One(the highest level Wrexham has played at I believe), and probably make it to the Championship too.

It was a no-man's land blooper that JBJ didn't handle the high bounce cleanly, and Bichette had to cover some ground to catch the throw. Reyes to his credit hustled out of the box, but should recognize that he is Franimal sized and not Madrigal sized when making that decision.

Morel was very fortunate that was the slowest possible slide from a very slow runner because that was a terrible throw decision

They traded away their four best relievers and are nearing the end of 19 games in 18 days(and 31 in 30 since the deadline), plus multiple starters got hurt in the last week. It's gonna look a bit lean