Transmogrified Tiger

In a perfect world any Mervis hedge would have value at another position(looking at you, Bellinger), but even if not there's not abject certainty about DH with Reyes dipping below a 100 wRC+ as a Cub. So in theory those two could coexist even if I wouldn't call it plan A.

I’m a bit lost on why this separates QB play from playcalling. I did see that Fields had the second highest Depth of Target in the league this week which immediately makes me question the validity of this statistic Well he only made 11 throws and one of them was the super deep ball he overshot, so it wouldn't take much else to keep the average high. Feels like a statistic that's maybe better with the median, or maybe that doesn't matter as much unless you throw it so few times.

I think the way the bullpen looks for now and Jed's stated and practiced preference to incorporate SP through the bullpen makes a 2nd SP reasonably likely. Even if you add 3 FA RPs, you have some probable bullpen pieces beyond that but only so many. Hughes is locked in, but Wick has had his worst season and turns 30, Heuer probably won't be a factor opening day, there's a few prospects(Estrada, Rodriguez) and post-prospect guys(Leiter, Sampson) who might be useful, but very little etched in stone. Which is a long way to say that adding a 2nd SP, especially if they could be useful in a pen role if needed, would allow more pen depth with Thompson and Wesneski probably being there on opening day. Really what it comes down to is resources for the offseason. They probably can't make all the upgrades that they might want, so it's a matter of whether they want to short sheet the rotation or a particular position group.

Castro has been pretty good since getting outrighted to Iowa: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 8/1 K/BB

Yeah, I'm pleased that he's been a bit above average offensively for going on 4 weeks now. I don't need him to be an expected above average hitter given his defense and the lack of alternatives, but the 35 wRC+ he was running to start his Cubs tenure wasn't gonna cut it.

McGeary, he was the D2 guy with video game numbers(1.640 OPS!) that also hit really well with wood in the Appalachian League. Probably not gonna add any defensive value so hopefully he keeps raking.

I could see something like Madrigal for one of the Royals SP that hasn't fulfilled their potential, he's the type of profile the Royals might value more than average and there's some opportunity without Merrifield. This is also probably the offseason to strike with Mitch Keller from the Pirates, but he's been just good enough that they won't be in much hurry even if he's hitting arb. He just got traded but Mickey Moniak hasn't done anything at the MLB level and would fit the roster as a LH + defense CF bench option better than Velazquez/Canario/Ortega/Hill. For those more bearish on Mervis, the Mariners would probably pay to get rid of Evan White at this stage, and my deadline obsession Alex Kirilloff needed surgery right after the deadline so they might be ready to move on from him.

I don't like that CBS has soccer locked away on Paramount+ since I have no use for it otherwise(shout out to T-Mobile for 1 year free), but their studio shows are the gold standard. The post-matchday show they do for Champions League is just Micah Richards and Jamie Carragher busting chops and laughing like hyenas for an hour and it is the dumbest thing that can't help but make me smile.

I think Turner's risk comes more due to age than durability, he's going on 5 years now of averaging 150 games per 162. I don't have a good sense for how aggressive the market is going to be post-CBA and with full season revenues back, but I think something like 6/210 gets in you in the ballpark and you can scale the years or AAV up/down a little from there.

Nothing revelatory, but ESPN's baseball writers voted on FA tiers and put an article together with commentary from Passan: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34585322/jeff-passan-early-2022-23-mlb-free-agency-tiers Tier 1: Judge, DeGrom, Arenado, Turner Tier 2: Correa, Verlander, Bogaerts, Swanson, Rodon, Diaz, Senga, Bassitt Tier 3: Nimmo, Abreu, Contreras, Taillon, Anderson, Eovaldi, Wainwright, Bell, Benintendi, Haniger There are additional tiers but it's not worth me making a laundry list of names. Of interest to names already mentioned in this thread, it says that Correa's chance at a long term deal at 35M might be waning, Rodon is probable to get a 9 figure deal, and Contreras won't get to Realmuto's contract value.

I think this is true but I also think it's part of the argument for Devers. Maybe they were extra conservative because of where they were in the competitive cycle, but I think Jed is extra mindful of back end age risk when it comes to big contracts. It's partly why Suzuki and Correa were the big targets last year, and partly why they got Stroman instead of a 4-5 year deal for similar dollars for SP in a similar age bracket. Devers being 2 years younger than Correa, 3.5 younger than Turner, and 4 younger than Bogaerts is a big deal in that regard, and I can see that definitely being worth trading from prospect depth to acquire, especially when Turner/Bogaerts require a prospect cost of their own through the QO.

Yeah, we have a fair amount of evidence(Mookie, recent deadline packages for rentals) that if Devers gets dealt it's a toss up that a player of PCA's caliber needs to be included at all. The package would probably have to hurt the MLB roster(read: Morel), but Devers isn't Mookie, Ohtani, or Soto and his return would probably reflect that. Devers was the variable; the crux of the discussion was trading PCA. But sure if the Red Sox take Morel for Devers you do that deal 8 times a day. Some other team who is already competitive is going to be willing to offer more than Morel for Devers in hopes of putting them over the top. Oh to be clear it'd be Morel plus other stuff, I think the one I modeled after the Betts deal that matched up on BaseballTradeValues was like Morel + Herz + Triantos, though that shows up as an overpay there now.

Yeah, we have a fair amount of evidence(Mookie, recent deadline packages for rentals) that if Devers gets dealt it's a toss up that a player of PCA's caliber needs to be included at all. The package would probably have to hurt the MLB roster(read: Morel), but Devers isn't Mookie, Ohtani, or Soto and his return would probably reflect that.

Statcast leaderboards added some pace stats and a 'timer equivalent' to give a sense of who may need to adjust the most with a pitch clock: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitch-tempo?season_start=2022&season_end=2022&n=100&split=no&team=CHC&type=Pit&with_team_only=1 No current Cubs need to make huge adjustments to accommodate, a couple guys(Sampson, Wick, Uelmen) will probably feel the pressure a bit though. Of potential offseason targets, Ohtani will be constantly flirting with the limits at his current pace, and a few FA like Thor and Clevinger are in a similar space as the aforementioned Cubs that they'll need to be mindful. At the other end of the spectrum there's several guys whose names have been mentioned as targets that move very quickly: Smyly, Rodon, Marquez, Brad Keller.

This came up the other day: viewtopic.php?p=509309#p509309 - Mervis has only been at AAA for 6 weeks, so while it's not proving to be a huge challenge he's not proven mastery of the level beyond a doubt - Mervis does not have to be added to the 40 man for Rule 5 reasons, which means keeping him off the 40 man during the offseason helps the team protect an extra player and alleviate the likely crunch - Mervis playing in MLB wouldn't change how you approach the offseason. 20-25 games isn't enough to make you confident of his 2023 production one way or another, so you aren't losing valuable insight by keeping him in Iowa.

The Twins aren't completely cooked either. They're 5 back and have 5 left with the Guardians, 6 left with the White Sox, and the other 12 games are all against non-playoff teams(KC x2, Detroit, Angels).

I don't think the pitching congestion is that large a concern. Mills and Assad are flotsam and Sampson isn't far behind, plus Alzolay is out of options and turns 28 before ST, they should consider him a MIRP at this point. Kilian clearly needs more time in AAA and the pen will certainly have lots of opportunity for someone to do what Thompson did this year if they can show out as a starter(including possibly Thompson himself). The OF congestion is a little more legitimate, but half that group has 4th OF ceiling, you have the DH, Caissie can play a little 1B, etc. I'm not terrified of Perlaza or Pinango not having every day playing time lined up. There is a congestion that I would try to address in the OF though. At the major league level you currently have both corner OF spots spoken for(RH and Switch) and a decent full-time DH(RH), and you have 3 legit OF prospects(Davis, Velazquez, Canario) who should be in line for some MLB time in 2023 that are all RH and are all probably best in a corner. Velazquez is the obvious one to trade away for me, but depending on returns I can see the argument for any of the three.

I don't really want to rehash the convo from a month ago, but Roederer can't hit. Or if he can, he hasn't demonstrated that in a real way as a pro yet. In that sample with all his HR he hit .190/.246/.492 with a 6:1 K:BB, an 81 wRC+ compared to his 82 total at AA. He also maxed out at an 88 wRC+ at South Bend. The ideal batted ball profile and ability to play CF aren't going to make the lack of primary skill go away.

It looks like you can watch the games that are shown in your local market(including playoff games), but only on phone/tablet. If you had TV access to those games already there's probably an app that lets you watch them on mobile, so my guess is that it's really only useful for true cordcutters who want mobile access but are only doing antenna for local channels instead of an OTT provider like Youtube TV or Sling.

in less than 7 full innings, ESPN has done - a scorebug representation of the pitch clock during pitches (this was actually helpful) - an interview w/ Evan Longoria while he was at 3B - an interview w/ Franimal during a defensive inning (this was great because Reyes is great) - a zoom interview with Bobby Valentine about 9/11 - a zoom interview with Maddon so he can plug his book and repeat his analytics talking points Just desperate to have anything but the game to pay attention to, why did they flex this game if they hate the matchup so much?

Because you probably lose an extra player in the offseason if you bring him up now Also, there's so little time left in the season that you wouldn't learn anything that would make you change your offseason plans, there's gonna be some uncertainty about him whether he hit well or poorly. Might as well keep the 40 man spot, let Mervis hit in AAA(it has only been 6 weeks that he's been there), and proceed with him as a realistic option for next year, crossing the 40 man barrier only when it becomes necessary.

Even setting aside muntjack's concerns about Varsho as a target, I don't think there's the slightest chance Arizona would consider trading him. He's a positionally flexible OF/3rd catcher playing at a 4 win pace at pre-arb salaries. Yes they have a couple big OF prospects coming through, but none of them are so positionally limited nor are they locked in at DH to the point where there isn't plenty of playing time for everybody.

So Wittenmyer fairly confidently claimed last night that Smyly's option is for 10 million, and it's a club option and not mutual. Brett for one seems to be taking that at face value with the caveat that the team itself used the word mutual in announcing it: https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/09/10/drew-smylys-incredible-outing-and-the-status-of-his-2023-contract-option/ It's good to have options, but I have a hard time seeing a scenario where keeping Smyly is a good idea. He'd be extremely underwhelming as the sole SP addition, and $10M is way steep for some sort of depth "you can never have too much pitching" type of add. Yeah I'm a little conflicted. One one hand, 10M is real money, Smyly doesn't miss enough bats to have big upside in the rotation or relief, and with the team's development apparatus you would think you can get the next Smyly for significantly less. On the other hand, trying someone else isn't a risk free venture(sometimes they're Norris or Newcomb), I'd have decent confidence Smyly can soak up middle relief innings if not needed in the rotation, getting Smyly done right away keeps your attention focused on the biggest moves for the offseason, and compared to some other situations Smyly represents a pretty clear bridge to homegrown arms in '24 and beyond. It also depends on how willing the team is to deal from prospect depth. If they are, then those targets are more likely to be lower cost and Smyly makes increasing sense. If not then you probably need to use your available resources more efficiently.

So Wittenmyer fairly confidently claimed last night that Smyly's option is for 10 million, and it's a club option and not mutual. Brett for one seems to be taking that at face value with the caveat that the team itself used the word mutual in announcing it: https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/09/10/drew-smylys-incredible-outing-and-the-status-of-his-2023-contract-option/

Ben Brown ran out of steam a bit in the 5th but that's still 3 good starts in a row. Seems like he's settling in at AA. Myrtle Beach doing Tom Tribute Night, with 2 HR for Hearn and 3 hits for Ramirez.