Transmogrified Tiger

I can get on board with that, I just didn't have the guts to project that much(health, control/command, 3rd pitch) all coming together. Plus even as an underslot the 2nd round carries a higher baseline of expectation because of who could've been picked in that spot(even at underslot prices).

Setting aside Shaw since I don't think that's really the point of your question, I'll vote for Sanders. Guy had 1st round helium before this year and was a multi-year starter in the SEC, I wouldn't be surprised that a little bit of health and a little bit of pro instruction(mechanical and pitch dev) make him into a really good pick for the round/slot.

I think if you want to be optimistic on Shaw, you can point to most of the complaints about his defense being arm-related, which combined with his physicality & work ethic you can draw a line to him being closer to the Dansby/Nico end of defenders who lack elite arms. That would then put his profile in the vicinity of like a Marcus Semien, again assuming positive outcomes for the bat too. More realistic might then be closer to Brandon Drury if he's more of an average defender but still hits like you hope?

I guess to maybe clarify on the catchers I don't necessarily disagree about the Amaya v. Barnhart conclusion, but I think how much emphasis was put on handling pitchers in how they built this catching group means that they aren't particularly cowed by Barnhart being a handful of singles worse than hoped for offensively. I think because of this mindset it's notable in a positive way that Amaya continues to persist on the MLB roster and get occasional starts behind the plate, with other inflexibilities in the position player group it would have been easy to send him down for someone who could play the infield or outfield at various points. But I also don't think the front office sees this as a problem needing immediate resolution, if they're okay with Amaya sticking on the roster in this fashion then they probably will be for next year's roster, which lowers the urgency in creating an Amaya audition outside of purely developmental grounds(which there are arguments I can buy for and against). On Mervis, he can definitely be called up for Young today, no question. What I was getting at is that keeping him up after others get healthy requires an opinionated decision on one of those other guys going down instead of Mervis(technically Tauchman or Mancini too, but those are more nuanced). If you're of the mind that Wisdom should be in Iowa instead of Mervis *when the time comes to choose between them*, then great, I don't disagree. But you have to be of that mind because otherwise he's coming up for like 10 games and then going back down, and I think avoiding that outcome is why Young was chosen to begin with.

Call up Mervis when you're willing to to send down one of Amaya, Madrigal, or Wisdom to keep him up. If that moment is now then you don't have to wait, but if you aren't there yet then it shouldn't be now because then he just gets yo-yo'd when Swanson/Madrigal get healthy. I would call up Velazquez before Perlaza, and I would not call up Velazquez. Amaya's near term value is as a bench bat/backup catcher, and the team has taken uncommon steps to keep him on the roster when they didn't have to. This isn't his ceiling and you can say he should be playing more now with the existing roster, but he's doing the role you're creating an artificial audition for already. Faking an injury for Barnhart(who has been a perfectly cromulent backup for the last 5 weeks running) not only ignores how and why Barnhart gets most of the PT he does get(Stroman, platoon advantage), but it sends a contrary message to all previous writing and thinking about trying their best to be competitive.

Boy I really did not need to see that SD/Detroit guess was correct since I talked myself out of it and then guessed wrong for 8/9

On the pitching side, I'm pretty bullish on Horton and want to see him in AA soon. It's the control and depth of repertoire(that he's apparently using consistently) that excites me more than the hot streaks you see from other prospects. Brown and Wicks are still good prospects but them taking a few AAA lumps is a good reminder that you aren't going to put them in a 2024 rotation in pen. The AAA relievers have been disappointing as a group, where they seem to pass the baton of bad outings and no one looks primed to be anything more than a mid-innings guy on performance. The middle class of SP haven't really had someone step up like Brown did before he was traded. Hodge, Herz, Palencia, Kilian, Devers, Birdsell, none of these guys are disappointing individually for not becoming mid-rotation hopefuls, but going 0 for 6 collectively (so far) is a bummer. Ferris and Gray offer some hope and I'm curious how they serve as proof of concept of what can happen with Kantrovitz + Pitch Lab. As for the hitters, I'm encouraged that Crow-Armstrong's swing decisions keep improving and that he's maintaining that power. Would like to see a little more baserunning precision(only 76% SB%), but learning by doing is what the minor leagues are for. I think between Mervis, McGeary, and Caissie even if neither has a stranglehold on 1B/DH that we'll have more confidence one of them can help there in 2024 than we did for Mervis at the end of last year. I also think Caissie's trajectory serves as a useful reminder about age relative to level, and to be excited about Ballesteros/Rojas and less down about Hernandez than we might be otherwise. I'm down on Alcantara, not necessarily because he had some early season struggles(though I think those reveling in his June have undersold the depth of his badness for a long period) but simply because roster math is gonna catch up with him before he's ready. If they're trading with a team that has fewer aspirations for 2024 he'd be high up the list of guys I'd send out as a result. Howard and Davis looking cooked so far hurts, maybe Canario can buck the trend when he's truly healthy and back to Iowa to at least give some hope he can play some MLB role in 2024.

I had the same problem, had some sweaty palms when I got the White Sox ROY right, and then I was down to Mariners/Marlins for 9/9 and it took me ages to get to Jean Segura

Baseball Trade Values has Goldschmidt with solid value(though not anything obscene) and Arenado underwater given his contract. While I don't think those are exactly correct, I think they're directionally true. Goldschmidt could get you a couple guys from the "good prospect or 2nd division MLBer" bucket, and Arenado is probably not getting you much unless you start eating significant money.

The balanced schedule also helps them in that there's fewer games where a team in front of them is guaranteed to win. I think the conclusion is correct(the Cubs playoffs odds are more faint than the standings might suggest), but I also think it's simpler to think in terms of probabilities. Let's take the 85 win example. What are the odds that the Reds play at a 77 win pace or worse the rest of the year, and what are the odds that the Brewers play at an 80 win pace or worse the rest of the year? I don't particularly believe in either of those teams(they are 9th and 10th in the NL in run differential after all) so I think it's probably close to a 50% chance for both. Call it 50% for the Reds and 45% for the Brewers just to put a number to it. That means that the odds that that both give you the outcome you want is a shade under 25%, and that's before you get into the long odds of the Cubs playing like 95 win team the rest of the year. If that's even a 20% chance, then you're at ~5% odds of all 3 coming to fruition for a Cubs division title. That said, if the Cubs do make it to the 85 win threshold and that's not enough for the division, they wouldn't be favorites to take a wild card spot, but that 5% does improve, which even if it's not the same math would mirror Fangraphs' odds that are near 10%.

Such a pessimist, he didn't even say the other 3 batters struck out! 27 K/9!!!!!!

There's a theme developing that is basically 'middling college results but very good performance in limited time this year on the Cape'. Bateman, Trice, now Armstrong.

wow Baseball Reference bought it, that's fun

Oh I agree, but for Brock's purposes he/the writers are not gonna plagiarize those different reports, so what ends up in their summary instead ends up being the agreed upon generalities that are less useful/interesting.

One idea for future content, after the draft have a pick by pick view at what the author feels a good outcome/comp would be for that player. I feel like most draftniks know that no one has detailed first hand info on all these guys, so the summary of scouting reports tends to feel more watered down than it is useful. Using a comp as the lens for describing the player allows the author's view to shine through a bit more because they can describe whether that's based on body type, pitch repertoire, swing, defense, etc. Plus people love comps so I would guess it would be a decent performer, and you can hedge against the 'every player drafted is a big league starter' false assumption by being clear about what you're doing with the exercise up front.

It looks like 2023 was given to Seattle in September 2021 and 2024 was announced this past November, so there's not a standard time and it doesn't necessarily seem likely to be this week.

Bateman is hitting everything in sight in the Cape. It's basically all for singles, but 23 for 46 is no joke and leads the league.

I didn't watch a ton of the CWS but Rivera was one of the guys who made me google how good a prospect he was. Seems like lots of folks are more bullish on his SS defense than that MLB.com report too.

The secret is that because they plan to be competitive in 2024, whether they are truly in the hunt at the end of July 2023 doesn't make a big difference in what trades they might make. This goes double when there's only a couple teams who might meaningfully sell(e.g. make 2024 worse to improve 2025 and beyond), and no one really approaching a 'last stand' of competitiveness they need to buy to maximize, so the players available and the players being asked about in return are similar either way.

Andrew Cashner made almost 200 MLB starts and that was before teams started creating whole departments to optimize repertoires. The pure relief label is based on command/control concerns, and it's not like what Wiggins did in 2022 was on the par of an MLB reliever either, so some improvement has to come no matter what. They clearly think that distance from injury, mechanical improvements, and pro reps can make him more consistent in that regard, and the reward looks pretty significant given the velo and changeup he's already demonstrated.

By the same token I can not believe that he got there while did not.

If he is, I don’t think it’s to the level of detail of “if we’ve got RISP against the back of the bullpen make sure to PH Gomes for Wisdom and not Amaya”. Occam’s razor suggests that without Ross they are still similarly minded and have access to the same info that drives that decision.

People complained about Happ and Schwarber being high floor players too, especially with modern player development it's a fairly meaningless distinction. I get that it's always fun to dream on blank slate high schoolers who have a 1% chance of being a superstar, but when the Happs and Hoerners of the world can reach 4+ win seasons too, it makes the outrage they didn't take a lottery ticket ring hollow.

Fangraphs also had these tool grades