Transmogrified Tiger

The implicit assumption in trading Bellinger for Garver and a prospect is that it's likely you could trade him for a better player than Garver or a better prospect. Or you could hang on to him if you're wanting to compete and take the pick benefits that follow afterwards. I'd prefer all 3 to this particular option.

There isn't an exact match with this board software, but you can create content 'streams' and get fairly close. @WrigleyField 22 made one to try to replicate Active Topics here: https://northsidebaseball.com/discover/14/

Did he have a good reputation or did people speak highly of his ability to not be forced off the position due to physical limitations(e.g. he has a cannon)? He has 39 errors in 156 MiLB games at 3B, and 3B hasn't been the dominant position he played at a level since South Bend in 2019.

Same problem but different source, it was to get away from the mess of the Post-Dispatch's CardsTalk message board.

Setting aside Ohtani since he'll be a very unique situation and basically in a tier of his own, he has the Cubs signing/retaining like 3 of the Top 5-7 FA in this class, and probably the 2 best position players.

I only think a move of this nature makes sense if some uncommon things happen in the next week to raise playoff odds to closer to a coin flip. There are other 'buy' moves that could make sense even if that uncommon thing doesn't happen, but with Candelario's ceiling only being so high, the range of outcomes has too many instances where Candelario is similar/worse than the alternatives, who are not currently struggling(Cubs 3B have a 150 wRC+ in July). Ironically it's not so different than the situation that shipped Candelario out of the Cubs org, though at least in that case the Cubs' playoff chances were much different.

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Manny Rodriguez's last 20 appearances for Iowa: 22 IP, 25 H, 9 ER, 34/5 K/BB, 1 HR The one HR came in the 2nd inning of a multi-inning appearance too. Might not be the easiest path to time in 2023 since he got outrighted, but it sure looks like he's figured things out in AAA.

The top 4 pitchers in the pen have all gone each of the last 2 days, and I'm not sure the exact degree that Assad is available with his weird long man usage. Gotta use the bottom of the pen with a 6 run lead even if it makes you white knuckle for a moment.

Nimmo is where my mind went too. Bellinger has had higher highs and lower lows and is 2 years younger at FA so maybe he goes for a little lighter years and higher AAV, or is more aggressive with opt outs?

I could be wrong about this and over-reacting to how Contreras played out, but I suspect it will need to be something a fair amount better than what we think of when we say 'Top 100' prospect. Like decent cost controlled major leaguer or locked on Top 50 prospect. It's a nuanced thing especially since prospect evals can vary, but like if the Guardians want Bellinger to make a run and to keep him from the Twins, something like Daniel Espino(a very quality prospect by all accounts, especially since his blemishes are injuries) is probably not going to cut it. Having said that, I've basically ensured a Bellinger/Espino deal coming to fruition if for no other reason to spite me for spending so many posts on the idea.

This is what I was referencing above, looking at the pick in isolation is underrating the value it has to front offices, at least those that are consistently successful. It's not simply that they can get a player of Wiggins' caliber or even the nominal bonus pool, it's about how aggressive they can be in free agency without significantly hurting the player development pipeline. In the scenario where you don't really care about the pick and trade Bellinger for whatever, then in the offseason if you sign a QO Free Agent your next chance to infuse talent into the farm system comes without the 2nd best pick/bonus pool and 500k less in IFA. Especially if you're picking in the mid-teens or later like the Cubs seem likely to land, that's a significant drop in the total amount of resources you have to keep that talent pipeline(the most important element for consistent MLB success) going. Plus the current state of the Cubs farm has plenty of depth so they would value a similar player in the 2024 class more than one in AA now that's imminently needing added to the 40 man. But don't just take my word for it, you can see this in how teams actually behave. Look at who has signed QO Free Agents over the years and if they also gained a pick that same offseason. The names on the 'also gained a pick that offseason' side of the ledger are generally the organizations that set the standard(and not just in spending), the names that did so without getting a pick in return are...a lot less admirable in their approach and results, broadly speaking.

Montgomery is the other one that you could say is in that conversation, their results have been strikingly similar this year. He doesn't quite have Stroman's reputation but also Stroman's reputation at times exceeds his raw stuff so that might net out in how some competing teams view him as a target. The Cubs should do themselves the double favor of battering him around today to return the favor from Stroman's start. But yeah, increasingly I'm of the view that some team is gonna make it worth the Cubs while to let go of the possibility of a Stroman extension, and given how Jed has increasingly approached these deadline deals I strongly suspect it's someone who plays a meaningful 2024 role. So the overall short term impact of the sell is that instead of a not-opted out or extended Stroman, you have an additional 20ish million and some other contributor heading into 2024.

His stock dropped a little bit because he was less dominant as a junior than he was as a sophomore, especially at missing bats. Feels like there's a takeaway there for some of this year's draftees in particular.

I'm with you about the team's approach to the rest of 2023, the time for them to add 2023-only contributors has been gone for a while, and I expect them to find a new home for Fulmer as soon as they can. The point I keep coming back to in the 'sell' conversation is the odds that Bellinger 'gets a return more valuable than the comp pick' are actually quite low, because the value of having a QO'd FA is a lot higher than the pick valuation chart that floats around as the justification in these cases. So really the only real difference in the state of the team pre/post deadline even in a broadly 'selling' situation comes down to Stroman. If you made me guess I would say he will be traded, but given how open he has been about an extension and the likelihood a semi-reasonable extension is possible(plus the questionable benefit of negotiating in the offseason having kept him), I would say those odds are a fair amount less than 100% too even if it's still ~70-80%.

Welcome! That username looks familiar, if by some chance you've been a poster here before and want to find a way to get into an account you can't access since we changed platforms, @Brock Beauchamp can potentially help. If I'm mistaken, 1) sorry about that 2) welcome again!

It does, because the comp pick and associated flexibility is worth more to Jed(and frankly, most front offices) than what rentals have gone for in the 2020s. He took what he could in 2021 because the system lacked depth and the team without those rentals was less in a place to immediately compete(and therefore aggressively pursue QO'd FA), but the team isn't in that place any more. You see that in how he didn't trade either of Happ or Contreras and then extended the former, and in how since the Baez/Rizzo/Bryant exodus they've only traded away relievers.

I think the cost for Singer would be a fair amount higher than indicated. Even with his struggles he's been the Royals best SP by FIP/xFIP and therefore is trending towards a third straight 2+ fWAR season, plus as another data point BBTV has him roughly on par with Morel in value. From a quick glance I don't exactly see much in the way of rumors of him being shopped or the team ready to move on from him either.

I was 7/7 with a 35 rarity score and then biffed the last two, got dang Orioles

I don't want to harp on this point but I think that's always been the plan regardless of their play in July. They have been too far back for a while to make any 2023-only moves, but 2024 contributors should absolutely going to be the priority. So much so I have a lot of conviction that Bellinger in particular won't be traded because they want the flexibility to sign a QO FA without crippling their 2024 draft(or extend Bellinger). That means that Stroman is the only really consequential wild card, which I don't have a great feel on. He's consequential enough that I don't think they should base the trade/hold/extend decision on whether their playoff odds are 8% or 14% or 21% though.

Wesneski in his brief July stint at Iowa: 3 appearances, 11 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 19/2 K/BB, 1 HR

Here's a fun chart, teenagers in High-A with at least 80 PA

The 9th is set to be Gorman-Arenado-Herrera (or PH) so that's still on the table.

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