Transmogrified Tiger

Seconded! Heh, thanks. I saw some guy at a Reds board that had it, and thought it was cool. Maybe I should bring back the one with Calvin hitting the bat-eating baseball, so I can crash Banedon's comp. :twisted: ;)

If you incorporated SB into SLG and CS into OBP, Hairston's line is .267/.320/.345/.665. Not very good. EDIT: Accidentally divided by PA's instead of AB's when calculating the SLG, it should be .267/.320/.401/.721

They just need to play Dubois every day. He's the best option out there, and he's also the one with the most upside and potential to give you above average production for the position. Please play Dubois.

I think more people view Santo as closer to a village idiot than hard hitting analyst, so I don't think he'd receive the same backlash.

I here ya. Kotsay may be doing a little better then again he may be hitting alot of weak groundballs and pop ups and his stats right around what he deserves (I just put together what BABIP is...incidentally, what is Barrett's?). For future reference, you can find BABIP here. A rough way for calculating expected BABIP is LD% +.110. Barrett LD%: .253 Expected BABIP: .363 Actual BABIP: .289 Barrett's line if he was hitting his expected BABIP: .347/.385/.542/.927 Barrett has been criminally unlucky.

ok. but do you see validity to my claim that you're too willing to way overpay for Kotsay in terms of prospects? we're talking about a fill in leadoff hitter that can play the outfield. as far as Kotsay goes, there are four options: a. doing something with Corey which means trying to trade Corey at a point were he has no value, or releasing him at the end of this year or trying to put together some sort other big trade to get rid of Corey b. screwing our outfield production for 2006 and putting Corey and Kotsay out there c. finding a comparable player for a heckuva lot less (no, I'm not suggesting Erstad as a possability. he's name was raised to make a point) d. finding a much better player for a similar package. c or d are the obvious choices and overpaying for Kotsay would be a serious mistake. and as for the "beane really likes Kotsay" nonsense...don't you see he's just trying to raise his value with every intention of trading him? his rhetoric about Kotsay reminds me of Boras in November and December. there's simply no reason to let the guy fleece you when he can do it to another team. Your point is well taken. However, I think that Kotsay is having a better year than you are letting on. If his BABIP were just 20 points lower than expected, which is pretty unlucky, his line would be .320/.375/.440/.815, which is great for a CF and leadoff hitter. One thing I didn't bring up before is that I'd look to involve Patterson in a deal for an impact LF bat if the deal for Kotsay happended. I agree that Kotsay and Patterson in the OF isn't a great situation.

all well and good, but not necessarily accurate or completely relevant ie. Kotsay couldn't hold Erstad's jock in terms of range in center, we're talking about a leadoff hitter so OPS is nice but not really what we are after, but Erstad can get on base and steal bases more efficiently. and did you consider that maybe Kotsay is or will suffer a blip in his career just like Erstad did? I'm not entire clear on BABIP, but it probably factors in Erstads worst years, so who cares about expectations, let's talk about getting a leadoff hitter for the rest of the year. Erstad has been ever bit as good in the role in 2004-2005. instead you want to lock the Cubs into another year of below average offense from center and left? that is exactly what you would have next year with Kotsay and Corey. but still, it doesn't change the fact that too many are vastly overrating Kotsay. Duchshistershyster is one thing, but Kotsay and Rincon for three of our best prospects is ridiculous. how about this, those three could probably get Dunn. what would you rather have, Kotsay and Rincon or Dunn? The BABIP numbers were only for this year, to explain why their numbers were similar.

Lawton fades down the stretch like no one's business. Murton is a perfect trading chip. Great numbers and performance, but doesn't project for power in a power spot. Dopirak has had 1 great year, and is still far away. 1B aren't tough to find, really, and this makes Dope a great trading chip. Mitre is our most tradable P, since he's had ML success, is a sinkerballer, and blocked by Williams and Rusch. I think Rincon and Kotsay are worth that trade. It's a fair deal for both teams. I didn't know that about Lawton, but I see you are right. but how about this, assume Erstad were still playing center. would you trade Mitre, Murton, and Dope for a deal for him and Scott Sauerbeck? of course you wouldn't, but current and career performance tells you that the the players are amazingly comparable. something about being a Beane boy makes people want to over pay. Touche, but Kotsay has been generally more consistent. Erstad had the one monster OBP year, but otherwise not great. Kotsay has been more steady the last 5 years. Your comparison, however, is a little too accurate for my comfort. Erstad hasn't had an 800 OPS since 2000. Kotsay has done it 3 times since then. Kotsay is a far superior defensive player, and has outperformed Erstad for several years. Their numbers are similar this year, but historically Kotsay is better after the ASB, while Erstad performs worse. Also, Erstad is also hitting about 40 points higher than his expected BABIP, while Kotsay is about 60 points below his expected BABIP.

Lawton fades down the stretch like no one's business. Murton is a perfect trading chip. Great numbers and performance, but doesn't project for power in a power spot. Dopirak has had 1 great year, and is still far away. 1B aren't tough to find, really, and this makes Dope a great trading chip. Mitre is our most tradable P, since he's had ML success, is a sinkerballer, and blocked by Williams and Rusch. I think Rincon and Kotsay are worth that trade. It's a fair deal for both teams. I didn't know that about Lawton, but I see you are right. but how about this, assume Erstad were still playing center. would you trade Mitre, Murton, and Dope for a deal for him and Scott Sauerbeck? of course you wouldn't, but current and career performance tells you that the the players are amazingly comparable. something about being a Beane boy makes people want to over pay. Erstad? I was sold on Kotsay thanks to Diffusion's comments in this thread or another regarding Kotsay. I wouldn't overpay by much, but we'll likely have him for next year, and if we can add a dynamite 8th inning arm that we control for 4 years like Duchscherer, then I think it's worth the proposed cost.

Lawton fades down the stretch like no one's business. Murton is a perfect trading chip. Great numbers and performance, but doesn't project for power in a power spot. Dopirak has had 1 great year, and is still far away. 1B aren't tough to find, really, and this makes Dope a great trading chip. Mitre is our most tradable P, since he's had ML success, is a sinkerballer, and blocked by Williams and Rusch. I think Rincon and Kotsay are worth that trade. It's a fair deal for both teams. I prefer Duchscherer, since he still has more time under team control. Since we're giving up a lot of talent that Oakland will have for a while, I'd like to have someone guaranteed beyond next year.

Murton? So we put a package together centering on Murton? Would you do Murton/Dopirak/Mitre? Those 3 for Kotsay and a bullpen arm? I'd think about it, depending on who we got for the pen(Ducscherer(sp?), Garcia, Street, maybe even Dotel?) If you think you're getting street, you should give me whatever you are smoking, because I would really appreciate it. :wink: Yeah, just throwing names out there. Duchscherer would be nice.

We're starting Hollandsworth, Patterson, Burnitz. We should be desperate too. Do we have anyone who Beane would covet, given his track record, needs, and preferences? Murton? So we put a package together centering on Murton? Would you do Murton/Dopirak/Mitre? Those 3 for Kotsay and a bullpen arm? I'd think about it, depending on who we got for the pen(Ducscherer(sp?), Garcia, Street, maybe even Dotel?) I think Dotel had elbow sugery a month ago or so. Yeah, I wasn't sure how long he is out for, so I threw his name in there for good measure.

We're starting Hollandsworth, Patterson, Burnitz. We should be desperate too. Do we have anyone who Beane would covet, given his track record, needs, and preferences? Murton? So we put a package together centering on Murton? Would you do Murton/Dopirak/Mitre? Those 3 for Kotsay and a bullpen arm? I'd think about it, depending on who we got for the pen(Ducscherer(sp?), Garcia, Street, maybe even Dote?)

We're starting Hollandsworth, Patterson, Burnitz. We should be desperate too. Do we have anyone who Beane would covet, given his track record, needs, and preferences? Murton?

We're starting Hollandsworth, Patterson, Burnitz. We should be desperate too.

When did this happen? They could be better, they could be worse, odds are they'll be pretty similar. To throw names out there, with the financial flexibility, you could make a run at Giles or Damon, you could attempt to make trades for Klesko, Huff, Dunn, Stewart, Gonzalez, A. Jones, Floyd, etc.

The names aren't important. The point is the guy we can get with the saved 9 million will be better than the guy we would've gotten there. The difference between those two players is greater than the difference between Maddux and the kids, nevermind the fact that it's likely they will outproduce Maddux.

Wins mean next to nothing. They really do, they are a team statistic. There are too many influences outside the pitcher's control that affect whether or not they get a win to make them valuable in evaluating performance. If Wood pitches like he has his entire career and gets 2 wins, it won't matter to me, because he will be the unluckiest pitcher ever. On the other hand, if Maddux wins 24 games with a 4+ ERA, he'll be the luckiest pitcher ever, and I'd still rather replace him next year.

You honestly believe that even with the fact that Maddux's ERA, though rising the past few years, is still better than those two guys? And the fact that's he's well on his way to another 15+ win season while those two can't put back to back good starts together? You'd honestly feel more comfortable in our chances of winning with them on the mound than Greg Maddux? I don't even know why I'm still in this discussion. It's bordering on insanity. Yes, I do feel more comfortable with those 2, because they aren't going to be much worse(if not better) than Maddux, while we have 9 million more to improve elsewhere. That's the difference between a J.D. Drew, and a Danny Bautista, to pull 2 names out of thin air.

Actually there's plenty of reason Maddux will decline. His ERA is up for the 4th consecutive year, His BAA and OPS against have been going up since 2000. On the other hand, pitchers like Williams, Mitre, etc. are very likely to improve as they approach their prime. Add in the fact that there is a 9 million dollar disparity between them, and I'd say that the team is better off with the young guys.

Numbers from 2 years ago are much more relevant in predicting future performance for the 23(!) year old Williams, than the 39 year old Maddux. Mitre's haphazard starts are not indicative of his true ability, and he's still only 24. That doesn't even include Hill, Nolasco, Pinto, who would have to beat them out. Nor does it include Rusch, who could be back at a much cheaper price than Maddux, at a younger age, and has outproduced Maddux as a starter with the Cubs.

It would take almost 30 of those pitchers to equal just Maddux's salary. They are bouncing up and down from the minors because there is no place to put him with our outstanding pitching. Several of these guys(Mitre and Williams for sure) would be starting from the get go on a lot of teams. Williams has a career major league ERA lower than what Maddux has done as a Cub, and the rest of the farm hands are capable enough that the best of them could be a quality starter. Again, even if they are a slight downgrade, the money saved to spend on other places makes it worth it.

Several differences. Dubois hasn't been given a chance to just have the job, otherwise we might be singing a different tune about LF. Also, with the SP situation, you aren't pinning your hopes on just one player. Mitre, Williams, Hill, Pinto, Nolasco, Wellemeyer are all guys who are competing for the spot.

In that same time, he's posted a 4.19 ERA, I think one of our farm hands could do that. What gives you that idea? Past performance by those farm hands, plus the sheer quantity of them. Even if they were slightly worse, the savings would still make it worthwhile. Past preformance indicates that they preform at a lower level. I suppose I'm not willing to accept a reduction in preformance to save a few million dollars in a professional sport that doesn't have a salary cap. So what do Minor League numbers mean? They are very accurate indicators of Major League performance when put in proper context. There's no salary cap, but that doesn't mean the team doesn't operate on a budget. The Trib puts limits on how much Hendry can spend, so he should be as efficient as he can with the money he is alotted.

In that same time, he's posted a 4.19 ERA, I think one of our farm hands could do that. What gives you that idea? Past performance by those farm hands, plus the sheer quantity of them. Even if they were slightly worse, the savings would still make it worthwhile.