Transmogrified Tiger

That is actually not what he wrote at all: I think he did say it makes things more difficult... Anyway, I'm not trying to nitpick. I understand what he's saying. The OF won't supply a lot of power (and will actually be below average when compared to other OF). Point well taken. My argument is with the assertion that they will be a "complete disaster." All I'm trying to do is illustrate how they can be productive minus the plethora of XBH. Kind of suprised to be reading this from TT (CPatt20). Of all people he seemed the less likely to argue about, a single stat, mainly OPS being a large factor in the success of the OF. TT - do your statements on the OF take into account the power potential in the infield? Lee, Ramirez, Walker and Barrett are all capable of putting up some decent/great power numbers for their respective positions. *edited for poor english I use OPS and OPS+ because they are quick(albeit dirty) and easily accessible metrics of overall production. That's the point I'm trying to get across, that our total offensive output from the OF is not going to be very good, and it would take much more time to use RC or XR. The infield's production is largely irrelevant for the purposes of this thread. With the resources at his disposal, Hendry should not have to settle for a poor outfield. Part of that problem is an (over)emphasis on defense(Jones signing), partly an (over)emphasis on lineup position over actual production(Pierre trade), and some bad luck/poor planning in this offseason's moves(losing out on Furcal/Lugo/Giles/etc. leads to having both Murton and Cedeno in the starting lineup). Individually you can make a case for those moves, but when they add up as a whole to the outfield that we have, it's unacceptable for a team with the Cubs payroll.

Watch yourself. http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y44/cubsfan_05/hobbeswhump.jpg

I had Vlad too, sweet.

Minor point of emphasis: Farnsworth comes in with a man on base in the 8th inning of a tie game and gets the next two guys out to end the inning. No one thinks anything of it. Had he given up a run, or worse, a home run, we would have remembered that much more.

HOORAY Tom Izzo is also excited by this development.

Welcome!

I didn't say to expect the players to dip below career norms, I'm saying that it's as likely as all of them playing over your heads, which you stipluated in the previous post. The Cards have a merely okay outfield, but it's still superior to ours, check the thread in Rivalries. And of course, the Cubs can win with an outfield like that, it just makes things more difficult. With the resources Hendry has, it's not too much to ask that the outfield be better than it is. No, I said that if they play to their career norms the team will be fine, I didn't say anything about playing over their heads... Jones playing better than he has the last several years would be playing over his head, as would Murton putting up an .830 OPS. Apologies with regards to Pierre, who's career averages are well below average(87 career OPS+, although he has played in some extreme parks so that probably has some wiggle room) No, it wouldn't be playing over Jones' head. I'm not talking about a career year, I'm talking about taking more walks (which he has increased over the last couple years) and striking out a little less. Even if he has a low BA his OBP can be respectable. I'm also not talking about .830 OPS for Murton. My focus has been on his average and OBP. It's obvious that he is a patient hitter who will manage to get on base (whether he hits for power or not). You said they were going to be a "complete disaster" this is where we disagree the most because you are focusing only on their SLG abilities. My point is that they don't have to be very powerful collectively if they are able to get on base via walk, hit, or other means. The outfield is almost half the offense! They have to have some semblence of power as a group. Jones is just bad at getting on base, and has mediocre power for a corner outfielder. Pierre can be good at getting on base, but he hits for absolutely no power(pre-emptive statement: Power is NOT home runs, it's hitting for extra bases). Murton may or may not give you good OBP or power. In all likelihood he'll give you okay OBP and below average power, especially for a corner OF. On the whole, that makes the outfield not very good at all, especially for a high payroll team like the Cubs.

I didn't say to expect the players to dip below career norms, I'm saying that it's as likely as all of them playing over your heads, which you stipluated in the previous post. The Cards have a merely okay outfield, but it's still superior to ours, check the thread in Rivalries. And of course, the Cubs can win with an outfield like that, it just makes things more difficult. With the resources Hendry has, it's not too much to ask that the outfield be better than it is. No, I said that if they play to their career norms the team will be fine, I didn't say anything about playing over their heads... Jones playing better than he has the last several years would be playing over his head, as would Murton putting up an .830 OPS. Apologies with regards to Pierre, whose career averages are well below average(87 career OPS+, although he has played in some extreme parks so that probably has some wiggle room)

I didn't say to expect the players to dip below career norms, I'm saying that it's as likely as all of them playing over your heads, which you stipluated in the previous post. The Cards have a merely okay outfield, but it's still superior to ours, check the thread in Rivalries. And of course, the Cubs can win with an outfield like that, it just makes things more difficult. With the resources Hendry has, it's not too much to ask that the outfield be better than it is.

LBJ 4 MVP! Cavaliers absolutely throttle Philadelphia tonight. Lebron goes for 37(13 of 22 from the field) with 7 assists, 4 boards, and 4 steals. They're all but in the 4 seed in the playoffs, which is sad because now the rest of the season carries no meaning. If they were allowed to pass NJ for the 3 seed(CLE is a half game back), that wouldn't be the case. The Cavalier win in conjunction with the Bulls win pulls Chicago within half a game of Philly.

Is it fantasy to want an outfield that isn't a complete offensive disaster two years running? Or to have a semblance of international scouting anymore? Or to stop overpaying in money in years for middle relievers? I think it's too early to say that the OF is a complete disaster. They may not have the ability to put up big power numbers but they can still be productive and help the team win. It's going to take career years from the entire outfield for the outfield to be much good. I disagree. If Pierre returns to his career norms, Murton provides consistent offense along the lines of his MiL and ML numbers, and Jones increases his numbers (not a career year but respectable) the team should be fine. I don't care what they hit in relation to other OF in the League, if they get hits, walks, RBI, during their turn in the batters box they will be productive and the team will benefit. What are the odds of that happening? Probably similar if not less likely than Murton slumping and posting an OPS around .700-.330, Pierre continuing his '05 struggles, and Jones continuing to be awful for a corner OF. You essentially said if the best case scenario happens then we'll be alright, which is obviously true. There's very little chance we see that, and it's why our outfield is going to be decidedly mediocre offensively.

Is it fantasy to want an outfield that isn't a complete offensive disaster two years running? Or to have a semblance of international scouting anymore? Or to stop overpaying in money in years for middle relievers? With all due repsect, I don't think you can classify LF and CF asa "complete offensive disaster". Last year, yes. This year, no. Say what you will about RF, but to call this year's entire OF a "disaster" is a bit hyperbolic. They aren't going to be very good offensively, especially if Murton doesn't hit for a lot of power. LF and CF are the two strongest parts, but neither is all that impressive and having one of them as your best production from an OF spot is embarrassing. Embarassing? Last year's OF was emabrassing. This year's projects to be mediocre. That's not what I wrote. I said it was embarrassing that Murton or Pierre is going to be our most productive OF.

What if Pinto, Nolasco, and Mitre pitch 3 out of every 5 days?

Noah. Morrison is really ugly, but if he shaved that goofy ass mustache he'd be just ugly. Noah is terrifying. This exact question was posed while I was watching the game with some people. One guy said Noah was worse(I agreed), the other guy was insistent that Morrison was worse. His reasoning is that Morrison has the potential to look reasonably good while Noah is just a monster. Therefore even though Noah is uglier, Morrison is relatively more ugly.

11:00 and a 1:00, boo. At least I'll have gameday for the 1:00.

Is it fantasy to want an outfield that isn't a complete offensive disaster two years running? Or to have a semblance of international scouting anymore? Or to stop overpaying in money in years for middle relievers? With all due repsect, I don't think you can classify LF and CF asa "complete offensive disaster". Last year, yes. This year, no. Say what you will about RF, but to call this year's entire OF a "disaster" is a bit hyperbolic. They aren't going to be very good offensively, especially if Murton doesn't hit for a lot of power. LF and CF are the two strongest parts, but neither is all that impressive and having one of them as your best production from an OF spot is embarrassing.

Is it fantasy to want an outfield that isn't a complete offensive disaster two years running? Or to have a semblance of international scouting anymore? Or to stop overpaying in money in years for middle relievers? I think it's too early to say that the OF is a complete disaster. They may not have the ability to put up big power numbers but they can still be productive and help the team win. It's going to take career years from the entire outfield for the outfield to be much good.

Am I the only one who thinks Rondo is somewhat overrated? No, I wouldn't draft him in either round. He can't shoot.

"Mr. Pettitte, I'd like you to meet Mister.......what's your name again?" "Regression to the mean" "That's it."

Is it fantasy to want an outfield that isn't a complete offensive disaster two years running? Or to have a semblance of international scouting anymore? Or to stop overpaying in money in years for middle relievers?

That's fantastic.

Len said something on the broadcast about how the Stats Inc people didn't give him an error for it because of that reason. That's different than the official scorer though.

that's great for comparing two teams. doesn't change the fact that the Cards don't have what many would consider a world series caliber team's outfield. also, career numbers aren't exactly the most meaningful way of looking at this comparison. not that three year splits helps the Cubs here since Encarnacion would probably have an advantage with three year splits, and Edmonds would probably be much higher. and I agree that I don't think Murton will be down around league average. Definitely, I'm not trying to say that the Cards have a great outfield, just trying to illustrate that even their pedestrian outfield has quite an advantage on ours.

I'd be stunned if Murton is a mere league average hitter and anywhere close to your "projection". I'll venture to say he ends up over 120, although I'd also suggest Edmonds could likely be back over 150 as well. I'm not overly optimistic about Murton, I've stuck with my .340/.420 prediction for all of the offseason. If he beats it that'd be fantastic, but in this simple comparison, he'd need to put up an OPS+ greater than Aramis in order to match the Cards OF as a whole.

Career numbers, projecting a .340/.420/.760 (OBP/SLG/OPS) line for Murton: Encarnacion: 96 OPS+ Edmonds: 138 Taguchi: 95 Average: 110 Jones: 101 Pierre: 87 Murton: ~100 Average: 96