raw

Word is, Bears made the same offer for Gabriel Davis, but he chose Jacksonville. They are supposedly interested in Hollywood Brown, Curtis Samuel, and maybe Mike Williams. While I don't LOVE the approach in FA either, there is a theory that teams should draft premium positions and pay for the non-premiums. It's the best cost approach as premium positions are more expensive in free agency and the contracts tend to be worse long-term. So far, Poles has paid multi-year deals the last 2 offseasons to 2 safeties, 2 RBs (counting Travis Homer), 2 LBs, a guard, and a hybrid DL Demarcus Walker. They also paid a run stopping DT a 2-year deal after signing him to 1 year last year. Over the previous 2 drafts, Poles has drafted OT, 3 CBs, 3-tech (ish), and will add QB and either WR/DE with all his top 60 draft picks, while also trading a pair of 2nds for WR and DE. So, seems like we have a thought process down. Also, you can't really harp on the misses, because you don't know if the Bears have offers on guys or not, and you don't know if the player chose another team/situation. That being said, they have to spend the money. I'm really surprised they weren't in on the short-term, high cap hit deals like Danielle Hunter. Seems to be right up their alley, even if it is at a premium position.

DE On Roster- Montez Sweat, Dominique Robinson, DeMarcus Walker FAs- Yannick Ngakoue, Rasheem Green Futures Contracts- Khalid Kareem, Daniel Hardy FA Outlook- DE and DT kind of go hand-in-hand to me. The Bears need to focus their attention in the defensive trenches, probably even above all else. They need to probably add 2-4 players between the 2 positions. The big debate internally will be quality vs quantity. There's the potential to spend some big money here. And there's potential to add depth pieces. Of note, the Bears DC (Eric Washington) rotated 8 guys on the DL in Buffalo the last couple years, so that's a clear possibility if you don't get a 70% snap guy opposite of Sweat. Flus mentioned specifically speed rusher as a desire. Robinson was a healthy inactive after the Sweat trade, should have legit competition brought in to take his roster spot. FA Targets- Big money (13M+) targets- Danielle Hunter (rumored interest), Dorance Armstrong, Bryce Huff, Jonathan Greenard, Chase Young Depth targets- AJ Epenesa (ties to DC), Josh Uche, DJ Wonnum, Michael Danna, Shaq Lawson, Derek Barnett, Clelin Ferrell Draft Outlook- The draft outlook at DE is very interesting. If the Bears take Williams at 1, and don't get a 2nd round pick back in a Fields trade, they could be deciding at 9 whether they value DE2 or WR2 the most at 9 with no picks until 75. Obviously, this would be dictated by free agency and they have the potential to trade back to get another pick to draft both WR2 and DE2. But the DE class is pretty top heavy without a lot of really good options when the Bears would likely be picking for the 3rd time in this draft, even with a trade down from 9. DT On Roster- Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens FAs- Justin Jones Futures Contracts- Michael Dwumfour FA Outlook- See above. If the Bears spend big at DE, they'll go cheap at DT. If they go big at DT, they'll go cheaper at DE. A lot of that decision depends on what they think about Dexter. If they love Dexter and think he can be the ideal 3-technique, they'll go cheaper. But they may have no choice as there is only 1 big time FA available, on paper. Bringing back Justin Jones, who was really solid down the stretch is also an option here. Not having to play a ton of snaps helped keep Jones fresh and productive. And he is on the same tier as many of the depth targets I list below. Also, remember Walker plays inside here so the depth isn't as dire as it appears, but need to add at least 1 guy on the interior. FA Targets- Big money targets- Christian Wilkins (best FA on market?) Depth targets- Sheldon Rankins, Quinton Jefferson, Javon Kinlaw, Grover Stewart, Teair Tart, Tim Settle, Adam Butler Draft Outlook- Similar to DE in that there's a couple guys at the top and then a bunch of developmental guys after. Even the top 2 guys are probably huge reaches at 9 so they wouldn't come into play unless there's a trade down. I do like some of the developmental guys. Among them are a couple of highly recruited guys who flashed early and had some injury/usage issues. If you believe in Dexter and Pickens, adding another guy in that vein with a DC who's primary coaching history is on the D-line is intriguing. LB On Roster- Tremaine Edmunds, TJ Edwards, Noah Sewell, Jack Sanborn FAs- Dylan Cole Futures Contracts- Micah Baskerville FA Outlook- The Bears spent crazy here last year, which is why they don't need to do so this year. They did keep 5 LBs last year, and FA Cole was a key special teams piece. Worst case, they need another guy to cover kicks. FA Targets- I don't see any reason to list potential special team LB5s. Baskerville can potentially do that, and had a strong preseason last year. Draft Outlook- The Bears also drafted Sewell last year, despite spending crazy as well, which is why they don't need to do so this year. With only 5 picks at this time, taking a LB would be a waste. CB On Roster- Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Kyler Gordon, Terrell Smith, Jaylon Jones, Greg Stroman FAs- Josh Blackwell (RFA) Futures Contracts- NONE FA Outlook- Usually keep 6 CBs, Bears have 6 under contract and I'm guessing will tender Blackwell a deal. Guys like Jones, Stroman and Blackwell can all be upgraded as CBs, but all are key special teams players. Any FA signings will be bottom of 53-man tier. Potential FA targets- I don't have any in particular, but CB5/6 types maybe Draft Outlook- This is the first position I don't see the Bears drafting at all with their current picks. If they are able to get a 5th, 6th or 7th, maybe there's a developmental or special teams ace here, but the Bears are as set at CB as anyone is at any position in the league. Safety On Roster- Jaquan Brisker, Elijah Hicks, Quindell Johnson, Tarvarius Moore FAs- Eddie Jackson Futures Contracts- Adrian Colbert, Douglas Coleman FA Outlook- Despite 4 names, this position isn't very deep. Johnson was a waiver claim pre-season last season, but played just 35 defensive snaps despite the starters missing 7 games combined. Moore was signed yesterday and has 41 snaps since 2020. Hicks was one of my least favorite Poles picks and he was terrible when he had to play last year. Ideally, the 5 that are not Brisker would be competing for 1 spot. This is a DEEP FA safety class and typically a slow moving market so the Bears should be able to find a bargain (or two?) here. Potential FA targets- Xavier McKinney (highest priced?), Geno Stone, Kamren Curl, Julian Blackmon (Flus ties), Jordan Fuller, Alohi Gilman (Notre Dame), Darnell Savage, Deshon Elliott, Quandre Diggs, Jordan Whitehead, Kevin Byard (visited Halas Hall this week), Justin Simmons, Jordan Poyer, Brandon Jones Draft Outlook- While this is a really good FA class, it's a pretty weak draft class with potentially no 1st rounders. As I said, ideally the Bears add 2 safeties, so 1 FA and 1 in the draft is possible. There's probably no 1st rounders at this position and only 3-4 second rounders, IMO. Unless a guy falls (and Bears get a pick betwene 9-75), a safety pick would be 3rd or 4th round.

With free agency legal tampering period starting tomorrow, I put together a "primer" of sorts for the Bears. Lot of words, so you can be happy for me or sorry it happened, if you want. QB On Roster- Justin Fields, Tyson Bagent FAs- Nathan Peterman Futures contracts- NONE FA outlook- This is actually an interesting situation in free agency at QB. There's a rare big name on the market in Cousins along with a solid starter in Baker Mayfield. But I think there is a 95%+ chance that the starting QB for the Bears in 2024 is either Justin Fields or Caleb Williams. If it's Williams, there's probably some interest in bringing in a veteran. A mentor type or a guy that knows and can teach the Waldron/McVay offense. The mentor thing didn't really work with Fields (if you believe former Bears' scout, Josh Lucas). And the guys that know the offense may either not be willing to mentor or not really hold much weight in his mentorship. Then there's the whole Tyson Bagent factor. Bagent proved to be a capable QB2 last year and is young enough where if he has to play, and plays well, he can have some trade value around the league or at the very least play into the comp pick formula in a couple years. Potential FA targets- Drew Lock- Last 2 years under Waldron in Seattle. Only 27, so not quite at mentor age and may want to go to a situation where he at least has a shot at competing for the starting job at some point. Carson Wentz- spent 2023 in LA with Waldron's mentor McVay I think every other potential QB add is either going to be too expensive or has the combination of not being good enough to beat out Bagent and no experience in this offense, which kind of defeats the purpose. Draft Outlook- Outlook is obviously Caleb Williams at #1, with an outside chance of a trade down to #2 to take Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels. If they keep Fields, they likely won't draft a QB, though I guess they could take one late in the draft, where they don't current have picks, so I won't get into those options. RB On roster- Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, Travis Homer, Khari Blasingame FAs- D'Onta Foreman Futures contracts- NONE FA Outlook- This is a pretty loaded FA class of RBs. And I know it's not popular, but I'd take full advantage of this FA class. Frankly, I think Herbert was borderline unplayable on pass downs. He's a terrible pass blocker and he doesn't provide anything as a receiver outside of the screen and true checkdown game. Herbert is a FA after the season, so adding a guy could allow you to trade him and get something from him before he walks for nothing after 2024. And whereas other positions you're going to pay well over 20Mil for a superstar, the top RBs on the market on only projected to get 10-12M/year depending on where you get your projections. Homer is interesting. Played for Waldron in Seattle, so may have value as RB3 Potential FA targets- Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs- top tier 10M AAV. Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler, D'Andre Swift- 2nd tier 6-8M AAV. Devin Singletary, Zach Moss, Alexander Mattison- 3rd tier. I'd aim 2nd tier here, but wouldn't dismiss the top tier. Draft Outlook- This is not a great RB class, but a lot of guys I really like with nice combinations of size and big play ability. Jaylen Wright, Tenn; Johnathan Brooks, Texas (has torn ACL); Marshawn Lloyd, USC; Isaac Guerendo, Louisville; are my top fits. WR On Roster- DJ Moore, Tyler Scott, Velus Jones, Collin Johnson FAs- Equanimeous St Brown, Darnell Mooney, Trent Taylor Futures Contracts- Joe Reed, Nsimba Webster FA Outlook- As usual, not a great FA WR class. Calvin Ridley, Gabriel Davis, and our very own Mooney are the top guys on the market. Ridley and Davis will be over the desired price tag for a WR2/3 and it feels like bridges have been burned with Mooney, who actually would be a great fit with Waldron. The 2nd and 3rd tiers are very interesting and I think the Bears adding a guy from these tiers largely depends on price. Think 2022 when they settled on Byron Pringle after the top guys proved to be overpriced. Thankfully, that's not as bad of an idea this year for a WR corps featuring DJ Moore and a top 10 pick in a loaded draft class. Potential FA targets- Slot WRs- Curtis Samuel, Tyler Boyd, Calvin Ridley Big play WRs- Noah Brown, Hollywood Brown, Gabriel Davis There's always a ton of WR5/6's out there as well, but I won't list those guys as they would be competing with Velus and the practice squad guys from 2023. Draft Outlook- Loaded draft class, there's some clear tiers here. Bears are likely hoping for one of the top 3 WRs to be there at 9 (Harrison Jr, Odunze, Nabers). Then there's about 2-3 guys that may be there with a trade down. Then another tier of guys who the Bears could pick from if they can get a 2nd round pick via trade at some point. And then some Day 3 guys that may get lost in the shuffle which would hopefully be the 2nd WR the Bears draft. TE On Roster- Cole Kmet FAs- Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan Futures Contracts- Stephen Carlson FA Outlook- Interestingly, all 3 of the Seahawks TEs from this past year are free agents. I don't think Fant will be an option, his targets and production were lower last 2 years under Waldron than they were in Denver before the Russ trade. I don't see him signing up for more of that in Chicago, while now playing 2nd fiddle to Kmet when he was TE1A in Seattle. Dissly was clear TE3 based on snap count, I don't see any reason to move him up to TE2 in Chicago. But Parkinson is a guy I'd really be interested in as TE2. Same role he played in Seattle, big dude (6'7) who's just 25. I'd take back Lewis as TE3 if he wants to play his age 40 season. Tonyan is as good as gone. If the Bears want a younger version of Marcedes Lewis, there's former Chicago Bear, MyCole Pruitt, who's a FA. Potential FA targets- Colby Parkinson, Harrison Bryant, Brycen Hopkins, old friend Jesper Horstead, best player in the league MyCole Pruitt Draft Outlook- Brock Bowers is the elephant in the room here and seems likely to be on the board at 9. I'd love Bowers in lieu of a WR in the 1st round, but I just don't think the Bears are going to take a TE top 10 after paying Kmet big money. I know Waldron likes to play 2 TEs, but even he doesn't play 2 TEs 90% of the time, which would be needed to make it worth a top 10 pick. I do think a Day 3 pick could come into play here, but the Bears are now short on picks at this point. May be Carlson's job to lose or very cheap or UDFA market as competition. OT On Roster- Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Larry Borom, Aviante Collins FAs- NONE Futures Contracts- Roy Mbaketa FA Outlook- So with 2 capable starters on the bookends, the Bears probably are looking at guys to potentially push Borom out or guys like Collins, who if you're like me, you vaguely remember signing last year before he missed the season with injury. But I guess he's still under contract just like Mbaketa from the international program. Potential FA targets- Yosh Njiman, GB- has played both sides decently in a pinch. Cam Fleming, Den; Billy Turner, NYJ; Draft Outlook- Another loaded draft position, IMO. The Bears probably aren't looking to draft a guy with the 9th pick, but if a guy like Joe Alt is there, there has to be a lot of temptation. There's a bunch of guys that could go around the 7-15 range, but Alt is the only one I think the Bears would take as he's clearing the field a bit as OT1. Poles mentioned the OT position as having a ton of depth, so this may be a lowkey spot they add a guy late. IOL On Roster- Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Ryan Bates, Ja'Tyre Carter FAs- Cody Whitehair, Lucas Patrick, Dan Feeney Futures Contracts- Jerome Carvin, Doug Kramer, not that Bill Murray FA Outlook- The million dollar question: Is Bates here to be the starting C or interior depth? Ideally, he'd be a depth piece as both Jenkins and Davis are injury risks. My guess is the Bears price out the C market and if they can get a clear C1, they'll have Bates as depth, but if the top guys get too much, they'll bring in a guy to compete with Bates. Not really looking at FA guards here as starting OGs appear set between 2 of the top 3 guys. Potential FA targets- Lloyd Cushenberry, Connor Williams (ACL tear), Andre James, Evan Brown (Seattle), Tyler Biadasz, Aaron Brewer Draft Outlook- I do think guards come into play in the draft, and the Bears ought to use a decently high pick here. Nobody really worthy of 9 here, but there's a ton of guys that I'd be interested in anywhere from a trade down to 15 to their 3rd round pick at 75.

I mean it is getting tougher to know what's real and what's not, that's what social media is. It basically makes the media part of our everyday social lives. But some of the people reporting things are real and some are not. I'm talking about the trusted, well known names that are reporting things (Russini, Schefter, Biggs). Greg Gabriel is certainly NOT a reporter. He's a former front office guy (as he will tell anyone who listens) who says things based on what he would do. I don't look at what he does as reporting. I think you have to look at the source and look at the information both on a case-by-case basis. Sure every once in a while, a wetbutt23 on Reddit has some legit scoop, but typically info comes from the same finite group of reporters. And certain information is going to always be more speculative than fact. Things like, "what the Bears can get for Fields" is speculative information. It takes a bunch of different channels to figure out what that is. You gotta talk to multiple teams about what they would give up and probably the Bears about what they would accept, in this situation. But things like, "Bears are trading Fields and taking Caleb" is easier to prove as it only involves 1 team and you can determine the answer to a binary question like that by reading tea leaves.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you are saying, but I wholeheartedly disagree with this. Almost across the board, the ones actually reporting are saying the Bears are taking Caleb. Obviously, Poles isn't showing his hand, but there's certain things you just don't do if you plan on keeping your QB and trading the #1 pick. There's also things that you do if you plan on deep diving on every single QB option in the draft. You don't hypothetically talk about "doing right by your QB" if you are sticking with him. I mean, the Bears were in this exact same spot last year and Poles publicly just said, "I'd have to be blown away by any QB prospect" to take him at 1. And while he did say that at one point this year, that wasn't repeated at the combine when he was last interviewed. Not to mention, the #1 pick was already traded by this time last year. It's also been reported that the Bears wanted Caleb to come to Halas Hall like 2 days post combine, and has since been reported that when he does come, it will be an all day affair with workouts, dinner, etc. Justin said on a podcast essentially that he doesn't have a playbook from the Bears new OC (without flat out saying that). This is stuff that has been reported by Russini and Schefter among others, and the sentiment has been echoed by Brad Biggs. Granted, they could all be wrong or have bad info, as again this isn't Poles directly saying what they are doing. But there are plenty of signs that have been reported that can be assumed that the Bears are moving on from Fields and mainly interested in taking Caleb.

Not extreme, because he's still gonna go top 25 most likely. But he's nowhere near the 9th best player in this draft. And I'm a Mitchell fan. But because of how deep this WR class is, there's no reason to reach for one at all. Granted, the Bears don't have another pick now til 75, but they can a WR from a pretty strong 3rd tier if they wait.

could just say he's white

Exactly. If you don't take QB1, you aren't "predicting" the best QB by taking a guy later. You're just taking whoever you think is the best out of whoever is remaining on the board at that time. Obviously, there are scenarios where your prediction for the best QB is still on the board and you go get him, but you're also more likely to be wrong in this case if you're overthinking the majority, in a situation like the Bears are in.

Poles is just speaking in hypotheticals. Poles has mentioned that he'd like to trade Fields (if he's going to trade Fields) before free agency starts because he doesn't want to string him along. He also mentioned that he has absolutely 0 fear that Caleb would want to come to Chicago. The biggest tell to me of the offseason so far has been DJ talking at the Superbowl and Justin on the St. Brown podcast. DJ supported his guy Fields, but the tone was different. He seemed more open to the fact that he was leaving. And on the podcast, Justin said something about how he likes to watch film right now and be in the playbook. While he didn't say he doesn't actually have a playbook, he basically said he doesn't want to watch film if he doesn't know what offense he's going to be running.

Franchise tag number is 19.8M vs 18.6M. Fields 5th year option is over 25.6Mil now if picked up by his new team.

Yeah higher cap, in theory, is bad for the Bears. They had the 3rd most cap, so they weren't hurting for space. This just gives every other team more spending power to either keep their own guys or to provide competition on the guys on the open market.

Yeah, I don't think Pittsburgh or Vegas are happening. Atlanta is almost too easy of a fit. Everyone has been saying Atlanta for 2 years. I do think teams like New Orleans, Denver, and even Washington or New England could be options. Hiring Kingsbury makes me feel Washington wants a big time athlete at QB. Not that Maye isn't a great athlete, but I wouldn't put it past them to get a huge haul for #2 and then trade for Fields and let him compete with Howell. The Patriots are IMO, the furthest team away from competing in the NFL right now. They could use a bunch of talent. I see don't see them sitting at 3 and taking QB3. I could see them trading down with a team that either wants QB3 or wants Harrison Jr ahead of Arizona. Fields would be a 1-2 year deal and they can see if they can get any value out of him while they rebuild that team post Belichick. If the Bears would trade him in division, I could see the Vikings interested. They liked Fields a lot pre-draft.

So, I disagree somewhat. I think if you are a well run organization, that has a good coach/culture and can really scout and develop players, you have a chance. SF isn't even this situation that has lined up perfectly. They've been to 2 of the last 4 SBs, and missed a 3rd because they had an unprecedented 3 QBs go down. The 49ers have really screwed up some draft picks over the Shanahan era alone. Since 2017, they've used top 100 picks on: Trey Lance (x3), a RB granted the best RB (x2), Javon Kinlaw, a kicker, Tyrion Davis-Price also a RB (just signed with a team after being cut by the Niners), Trey Sermon another RB, Aaron Banks (below average starting G), Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster, Ahkello Weatherspoon, Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd, traded for Jimmy G and overpaid him. They are really good, because Kyle Shanahan is really good. And sometimes you can have a great coach, organization, culture, great players, an elite level QB, and still run into Mahomes or Brady in January.

If I were Love, I wouldn't take a deal under 50Mil AAV. He had a top 10 passing season in his 1st year as a starter. If he has another year like this year, or god forbid, get even more consistent/better, then he'll get top of the league money, which is +50Mil/season. Even if he takes a step back, as long as he's not horrific (he won't be), so he's still going to get 40Mil, which is what the Daniel Joneses of the world get. Daniel Jones can only dream of having a season like Love's 2023.

I don't think there's a realistic offer Washington could offer to make me want to take Drake Maye. I like Maye a lot, but to me, the decision is either you take Caleb 1, or you get a haul that makes last year's trade for the 1st pick look like a steal for Carolina. Getting neither Caleb nor a huge trade haul does nothing. The closest comparison to a huge 1 spot trade was the Chargers trading for Ryan Leaf in 1998, they gave up a 2nd and a future 1st to move up from 3 to 2 to take Leaf. Much different league these days, but I think that's the best possible offer you can get. And you only take that if you have Maye rate equally or better than Williams. Which if that is the case, I honestly question the Bears scouting. Caleb is a clear notch ahead, IMO.

It's one thing to hold onto the ball because you're trying to make a play, it's another thing to hold onto the ball because you can't pull the trigger on an open target. Not going to pretend Caleb doesn't have some turn downs that cause him to hold onto the ball, but it's far less frequent than Fields (based on my eye test). And Caleb has the quick release that makes this less of a deal than w/ Fields. If you're going to be late getting rid of the ball, you better be able to take that 1/2 second off your release to get the ball there quicker, Caleb can do this. Not a perfect prospect by any means, but I feel much more confident in Caleb as his TTT issues don't appear to be as much of a product of not seeing the field well enough.

Nestradamus?

The Bears really could have control of the league. LOL. Could be forced to do Hard Knocks. With 3 former Bears elected to the Hall, they are the likeliest team to play in the HOF game. They obviously have the #1 pick and don't seem likely to trade it. Also have another top 10 pick. And last night, with the OROY and DROY being named both from the Texans, the year after both ROYs coming from the Jets, the Bears are the only team that has 2 top 10 picks like those 2 teams did when they selected those top rookies. Not to mention, they have a QB that will likely be popular on the trade market either leading up to or right after the draft. And if Kirk Cousins is back in Minnesota, Fields would be the premier QB to change markets.

Call his bluff.

Agreed. The last staff had 0 experience to fall back on. The GM, HC, OC, and DC were all 1st timers. Most of their staff was in roles for the 1st time as well. At the least, this is the anti Bears of the last 2 years. I will say, IDC about the RB coach thing. Brown was supposedly one of McVay's top guys who absorbed a lot in LA. He also isn't a QB coach, so they have that guy and the OC that can have positive impacts on the rookie. I don't exactly know what the PGC does, but even if it's developing passing concepts, creating and exploiting mismatches and things like that, that's probably going to have a positive impact. But most likely, we won't know his impact on the QB. If the QB is good, his impact will be viewed positively.

You gave 5, one of which was passing yards. Another was QBR which was a made up stat by ESPN that tells us that Joe Burrow has never been a top 10 QB in the league. And the 2 stats I gave supported YOUR side, one was QB wins, which is not as dumb as using passing yards for a 120 attempt difference. But you know all this and continue to argue because you are Kyle. And I commented without making fun of you or a health condition, because I can disagree with an adult.

How was I wrong? You gave 2 viable stats, ignoring literally every other one that favored Fields. And nobody is saying any of the horsefeathers you think "people want" to do. All I'm saying is he's AT WORST the same as Gardner Minshew, and that it's very stupid to want to pay Minshew potentially 2-3x as much money in 2024, because that literally means you just are going off of vibes and style of play. Fields really is that bad. Minshew really is just as bad, if not marginally worse, and will cost more money.

So it IS a vibes/style thing?

QBR isn't a real stat. Passing yards is a counting stat, which you know better than to use for a guy with 120 more passing attempts.

***should be noted that I do NOT want to stay with Fields.