Another week, another winnable game. Part of me is pretty excited the Jags won last week. The cream rises to the top in the NFL, and the Jags are definitely better than an 0-5 team. Are they better than 1-4? Possibly, but they haven't necessarily played like it. Since starting last season at 8-3, the Jags have won just 2 of their last 11 games.
A lot is being made of the Bears leaving on Monday and the Jags not leaving until today/tonight, and the advantage that gives the Bears. While there may be some substance to this, being that the Jags are leaving the day after a massive hurricane in FL and may have some loose ends that takes their focus away.....the reality is the Jags have done this a bunch. This will be their 12th trip to London. They probably know what they are doing. The Jags are also 6-5 in London, 2-0 in Tottenham Stadium where this game will be played. And Lawrence is 3-1 overseas.
Make no mistake about it, the Jags are a bad defense. They are giving up 28+ per game and the league's highest passing yards per game. But despite being worse than Carolina in those 2 areas, there is a bit of a caveat here. The Jags have played Josh Allen, CJ Stroud, and healthy Tua. Granted, they did play Deshaun Watson, who they pretty much stopped. But then they allowed 450 yards to a Flacco led offense last week.
Unlike Carolina though, the Jags don't have a Jaycee Horn. Their DBs are horrid and their LBs aren't much better. Jacksonville has just 2 turnovers on D all season, both on fumbles. So, Caleb should be able to continue his recent play without much fear of the defense being able to take the ball the other way. But also unlike Carolina, the Jags have some solid guys upfront. Arik Armstead and old friend, Roy Robertson-Harris are their tackles inside. Both are skyscrapers who are tough to throw over if they get any push. On the edge, the Jags have Josh Allen, who hasn't gotten off to a great start this year but was a top pass rusher last year. Taking his place among the top pass rushers is the opposite edge, former #1 pick, Travon Walker, who is 5th in the league with 5 sacks. He has a bullrush that can give Braxton trouble similar to what we saw from Jared Verse.
The Jags also have shown a decent run D so far. They are 6th in yards per carry allowed, and top 1/4 in rush yards allowed per game.
When the Bears are on D, the Jags provide an interesting challenge for the Bears defense. The Jags have a 2-headed monster at RB with their backup, Tank Bigsby, getting a whopping 8 yards per carry. The Bears will have to be on their toes when he's in the game. In the pass game, they have Christian Kirk, who can be pretty deadly in the slot. And rookie Brian Thomas has the big play ability that can keep the Bears safeties (one of whom will be a backup) honest.
The problem so far, Trevor Lawrence has been pretty bad. He's been wildly inaccurate and has absolutely folded under pressure. He looks legitimately scared under pressure and even worse when there is an actual blitz sent at him. He's 31st in the league with a -0.78 EPA per attempt when pressured. And the Jags have allowed pressure on 41% of dropbacks, which is really bad.
I think this will be a tougher game than many Bears fans expect, coming off last week's rout. The Jags will likely be able to move the ball on the ground and Lawrence can still pick you apart if left clean. Conversely, they may be able to stop the Bears run game and get enough pressure on Caleb to make his life tough. The key will be turnovers. You gotta force an untimely turnover (or 2) out of the Jags, as they tend to give you and NOT give them the turnover they haven't caused all year.