raw

With it looking like Daniels will be at QB today, the Bears job just got a bit tougher. Obviously, still a winnable game, but on the road against a good offense team with the betting line trending toward even, this game is as much of a toss up as the Bears have had in a long time. On offense, the formula is the same as it was against Jacksonville. Throw the ball quickly. Get it to your playmakers. I'll guess the gameplan will be much different that last year when the Commanders were just like, "OK, we're going to line up in man and dare you to beat us". And Justin Fields and DJ Moore continuously did as they stubbornly tried to stop DJ on an island. They do have a new HC/defense with Dan Quinn. Quinn will likely try to bring the blitz. And if they don't get home, I have the confidence that Caleb can pick them apart through the air or with the scramble. Washington does not cover well. Mike Sainristil, a rookie, has been their best cover guy, but the Bears have 3 guys that are pretty tough to cover. I don't think Sainristil can handle the veteran nuance that DJ and Keenan bring, and I don't think he can handle Rome's size. Odunze has shown he can get open, even though that connection with Caleb hasn't quite been there since the Colts game in Week 3 while trying to focus on getting the veterans more involved. Washington also hasn't been anything special in the run game either. They are 27th in yards per attempt allowed. So the Bears also have the ability to sustain drives by mixing up the run and quick passing game. Conversely, the Commanders have been really good both on the ground and in the air. Brian Robinson isn't a Jonathan Taylor level runningback, and their OL isn't Colts level, but the combination of the 2 plus the QB run has been top 3-5 in the league. And that will likely give the Bears trouble. Even if Daniels isn't 100%, you have to account for him, which means one fewer player in the box on zone reads and 1 less man in coverage if you have to use a spy on him. In the pass game, it's a lot of Scary Terry. I do like the Bears secondary to hold him in check. They have faced each other the last 2 years and the Bears have held him to a combined 7 catches for 90 yards, with 46 of those yards coming last year after they got down 16+. Daniels does spread the ball around a decent bit though as there's just enough Ekeler out of the backfield, Ertz at TE, Noah Brown on 3rd down, and Dyami Brown down the field to keep teams honest. Ertz against a backup safety and Noah Brown vs a backup nickel will be key matchups that the Commanders may try to exploit. If Daniels is behind center, the Bears need to hit him, and hit him a lot. He has shown in college that he isn't good at protecting himself. Their tackles are weak, so there will be chances to get after him off the edge. I expect them to move the pocket a bunch, but that can also lead to extra hits. Again, the oddsmakers think this is a pretty even game. Considering the game is in Washington, that's a slight nod to the Bears here. The Bears are coming off a bye week, but the Commanders are coming off playing the Panthers so not much difference there. The Caleb Williams homecoming and Montez Sweat revenge factors are big potential momentum shifters. This figures to be a 1-score game and the Bears have played more close games than the Commanders, though it's been a while. The Bears haven't really gone out and won a close game with their offense taking a late lead. The Commanders have. This is easily the best defense Washington has faced, but also the best offense the Bears have seen. If the Bears can continue their streak of holding teams below 21 points, they should score enough to win this game.

Hardest of passes. Talking prime Dan Marino in a tight window hard.

I like the Bears chances either way. But I think the difference between Daniels and Mariota is like 24-20 or 31-13. The Bears D should make Mariota's life miserable and he doesn't have the deep ball or athleticism (still very athletic, but not to Daniels' level) to really threaten the Bears defense at all levels.

The risk is re-injury. It didn't look too bad for Gordon last game, to be honest. They haven't really said if it was a pull or soreness or just a strain. If it's not a pull, he should be able to play after 2 weeks of rest.

Stevenson being able to walk thru Monday is pretty big. It's a day earlier than they usually get on the practice field. So, I'd guess that's good news for his status this week. Flus had good stuff to say about Brisker. Gordon more iffy, I'd guess. "Brisker is still going through protocol. He's got a couple more steps to go, but looks good. Kyler, again, is working through his hamstring. We'll see where that is on Wednesday."

Teven's going to be a tough call. The guard FA market has fallen into tiers. The top tier guys get 20M per. Then there is a 16-18M market. Then a 10-13M market, which kinda has a bunch of guys that are lesser (but healthier) players than Jenkins. Scheduled to be FAs after this year is 1 top tier guy (Trey Smith, KC) who is likely to break the 20M barrier, dare I say easily? Then there's a couple old guys Zach Martin and Kevin Zeitler, who I'd have 0 interest in. Then there's old friend, James Daniels...which isn't happening. That just leaves Teven and Aaron Banks (SF). Teven is slightly younger and familiar with the offense. The question becomes does Jenkins value himself in the 16-18M range or 10-13 Mil range. I don't think 3/30 gets it done. Maybe 3-40 does though. But he may be a guy you let test the market and pivot back to if he's not getting the offers he wants. I don't see him taking a 1-year deal with his injury history.

IDK if it's because Nagy is a control freak with his offense or that Nagy is stupid and bad at his job, but I'd guess Caleb wouldn't have as much freedom.

I disagree. Would likely take at least 1 first round pick, if not 2 similar to the Mack trade. He has a big contract and the Bears, for a change, actually have players they probably want to re-sign in the future. I'd love a bookend DE, but I'd prefer to spend money on offense wherever possible.

Biggs speculated that Bates could take over for Shelton. But Shelton has actually been pretty good in the last 2-3 weeks. I do think they cut Davis. He's already been healthy inactive once. He's behind Jenkins, Pryor, Murray (based on him getting reps over him Week 5 and active over him Week 6), and presumably Bates at guard. I don't envision many scenarios where they just put him back in there and hope he's motivated. He's probably better than all those guys except Jenkins, but they clearly don't want to play him. Why keep him rostered?

Starks is REALLY good. Byard has been much better than I expected this year and is under contract next year, so safety isn't a huge need. But both Byard and Brisker are free agents after 2025. Starks is probably too good to basically redshirt his first year. He can play some nickel as well, but you got Kyler there. This would be a BPA type pick and I wouldn't hate it even a little bit. Williams is interesting as well. He's a typical Georgia prospect. Doesn't have gaudy numbers because he's been sharing time with a 5-star loaded DL. 4.5 sacks each of his 1st 2 years, 0 in 3 games so far this year. But he fits what I think the Bears want, much more than Pearce. The Bears already have a guy in Booker in the 240 range. Maybe Booker gets bigger, but I think ideally, the Bears want an Edge they can play on base downs, and at 265lbs with proven run D ability, Williams seems like more of a Bears pick. The Bears would have the ability to bring him along at his own pace with Sweat on the other side, along with having Demarcus Walker for another season. One of my favorite players in the draft. He's a big boy (6'6, 330) but can really move. Has played RT and RG primarily. I don't think Wright or Jones are going anywhere at tackle, so I'd play him at whatever guard position the free agent they certainly need to sign pre-draft, doesn't play. Was hoping he'd be a guy around at that Carolina pick, but he's playing too well this year to last that long. Especially when teams could want him for OG or OT.

I'd like Teller a lot. He does have 2 more years on his deal and some void year crap that IDK how to account for. But on the right side of 30 for the next month still. 21.9M cap hit for next year and currently on IR with a knee injury. So the cost wouldn't be very much (Day 3 pick). The FA guard class isn't great after Trey Smith (top 5 OG in the league) and maybe, Aaron Banks from SF. Lot of pressure to get one of those guys with 31 other teams competing. He'd be the proverbial "bird in the hand". FWIW too, he plays RG so you wouldn't have to move Jenkins again like they did for Nate Davis. And he's been a pro bowl level player when healthy. He does come with injury risk as he only has two 17 game seasons in his career.

Only thing I can think of is there was a LOT of weight put on common opponents? Jags beat the Colts and lost to the Texans on a TD with 18 seconds left and that made people think they were better? Plus Bears injuries to Stevenson and Brisker.

https://x.com/Schultz_Report/status/1845618163385254020

Worked our way to an average offensive team!

Logically should have been a popular Superbowl pick in the NFC. They probably should have made it last year and didn't lose anyone. Of course, now they've lost Hutchinson to a really ugly leg injury. I'd imagine they'll go hard after any pass rushers that hit the market in the next couple weeks.

51% of the snaps is what I've heard. But I don't know if that's truly 51% or if it's "more than half". The original idea was Russ to start and a package of plays for Fields. Between that and the fact the Steelers were top 5 in plays run in the first 4 weeks (come back to the pack now), the 4th round pick is really close to a lock if Fields starts and finishes Week 7 healthy.

9-8 doesn't get you in the playoffs. There will be least 4 other 4-win (or 1 loss, Detroit) teams....which doesn't include 2 division winners (West, South) guaranteed a spot, after this week. 4-7 finish would also likely mean 3-7 vs the NFC (Patriots lone AFC game remaining), and that probably only means 2 division wins at most.

This 4 game stretch is pace of 395-565, 70%, 4465, 38 TDs, 13 INTs., 106.1 QB rating As is, his pace is 368-564, 65.2%, 3731, 26 TD, 11 INT, 91.26 QB rating

That has always been the Jags too.

You're right. I was looking at an old roster. Blasingame makes some sense too. As he hasn't been active for a few weeks. Blasingame and Davis being cut would be 2 vets getting the boot. That would be a pretty bold-ish move;

Guessing Borom and Bates get their practice windows opened during the bye. The interesting decision comes in what roster moves accompany them being activated. The Bears are carrying 4th TE, Stephen Carlson. Did yall even know he was on the roster? If you get rid of TE4, you now have OL10. But what about the other spot? You're not keeping 11 lineman. Obviously, Jenkins, Jones and Wright are safe. Biggs thinks Bates takes over for Shelton as starting C. And they aren't going to just cut Shelton, so there's 5. Pryor is starting, that's 6. Amegadjie is the 3rd round pick. He's 7. If you want Borom off of IR, he's 8th. Kramer was my first thought as "53rd man on the roster" when the final rosters came out. But he actually has a role now as pseudo full back. Murray has played too well to just release to get him to the practice squad. I'm guessing if Jenkins can't go Sunday, he'll get the nod at LG. Does that leave Nate Davis as the odd man out? Would the Bears actually cut Davis? Every other OL on the roster either has use and/or a future. Davis is clearly not on the 2025 Bears roster. Do they cut bait during the bye and eat the money?

They are 4-1 and their rookie QB leads the league in completion % and 2nd overall in passing yards. Their props are deserved, though I agree they won't last long.

Another week, another winnable game. Part of me is pretty excited the Jags won last week. The cream rises to the top in the NFL, and the Jags are definitely better than an 0-5 team. Are they better than 1-4? Possibly, but they haven't necessarily played like it. Since starting last season at 8-3, the Jags have won just 2 of their last 11 games. A lot is being made of the Bears leaving on Monday and the Jags not leaving until today/tonight, and the advantage that gives the Bears. While there may be some substance to this, being that the Jags are leaving the day after a massive hurricane in FL and may have some loose ends that takes their focus away.....the reality is the Jags have done this a bunch. This will be their 12th trip to London. They probably know what they are doing. The Jags are also 6-5 in London, 2-0 in Tottenham Stadium where this game will be played. And Lawrence is 3-1 overseas. Make no mistake about it, the Jags are a bad defense. They are giving up 28+ per game and the league's highest passing yards per game. But despite being worse than Carolina in those 2 areas, there is a bit of a caveat here. The Jags have played Josh Allen, CJ Stroud, and healthy Tua. Granted, they did play Deshaun Watson, who they pretty much stopped. But then they allowed 450 yards to a Flacco led offense last week. Unlike Carolina though, the Jags don't have a Jaycee Horn. Their DBs are horrid and their LBs aren't much better. Jacksonville has just 2 turnovers on D all season, both on fumbles. So, Caleb should be able to continue his recent play without much fear of the defense being able to take the ball the other way. But also unlike Carolina, the Jags have some solid guys upfront. Arik Armstead and old friend, Roy Robertson-Harris are their tackles inside. Both are skyscrapers who are tough to throw over if they get any push. On the edge, the Jags have Josh Allen, who hasn't gotten off to a great start this year but was a top pass rusher last year. Taking his place among the top pass rushers is the opposite edge, former #1 pick, Travon Walker, who is 5th in the league with 5 sacks. He has a bullrush that can give Braxton trouble similar to what we saw from Jared Verse. The Jags also have shown a decent run D so far. They are 6th in yards per carry allowed, and top 1/4 in rush yards allowed per game. When the Bears are on D, the Jags provide an interesting challenge for the Bears defense. The Jags have a 2-headed monster at RB with their backup, Tank Bigsby, getting a whopping 8 yards per carry. The Bears will have to be on their toes when he's in the game. In the pass game, they have Christian Kirk, who can be pretty deadly in the slot. And rookie Brian Thomas has the big play ability that can keep the Bears safeties (one of whom will be a backup) honest. The problem so far, Trevor Lawrence has been pretty bad. He's been wildly inaccurate and has absolutely folded under pressure. He looks legitimately scared under pressure and even worse when there is an actual blitz sent at him. He's 31st in the league with a -0.78 EPA per attempt when pressured. And the Jags have allowed pressure on 41% of dropbacks, which is really bad. I think this will be a tougher game than many Bears fans expect, coming off last week's rout. The Jags will likely be able to move the ball on the ground and Lawrence can still pick you apart if left clean. Conversely, they may be able to stop the Bears run game and get enough pressure on Caleb to make his life tough. The key will be turnovers. You gotta force an untimely turnover (or 2) out of the Jags, as they tend to give you and NOT give them the turnover they haven't caused all year.

If I had to pick the 1 out of those 4 they lose, it'd probably have to be New England. But NE is the Carolina of the AFC. The Bears have no business losing to them if they want to compete for anything this year. Then again, 4-2 would make me feel much better, coming off the last 2 weeks than 3-3 going into the bye would. They gotta beat Washington just so the "dId ThE bEaRs DrAfT tHe WrOnG gUy" stuff can end. Plus, if they don't win that division, they are going to be impossible to beat out for the WC with 2 wins on the Bears and a H2H Arizona is another team that could haunt them in a hypothetical WC race. Plus, conference record is a pretty big tiebreaker with other teams.

Being dropped on a stunt on a mat hurts as well. Those mats typically aren't very thick and the padding doesn't quite make the landing pillowy. Also seems to be a lot of knee injuries, but that's just going by my eye test.