raw

Definitely Gage. RB is a toss up, I'd go with Swift

Eh. The Bears play the Jags next week, they aren't going to lose out because are tanking harder and far less talented. I don't want them to draft the best OT or have Foles back one more year. And if the new regime needs to actually see an entire season to see how poorly constructed the roster is, then I don't know if that's the right choice for a regime. Draft a QB, don't waste anymore seasons without at least potentially having one.

To be fair, Jaylon Johnson got destroyed in the last Vikings game, as did Skrine who will also be out. To be fair to Johnson though, Pagano seemed to be in a stupid phase a few weeks ago where the defense was not even the least bit aggressive.

Is the difference between 10th and 20th that big? You're starting to get away from the tail of the bell curve there. Eh, not really. I'm a big proponent of premium positions in the top half of the first round. QB, OT, pass rushers, really good interior OL (Quentin Nelson types). There's typically anywhere from 3-7 blue chip prospects at these positions in a draft. Throw in non-bluechip QBs (Zach Wilson for instance) that go early because their such a premium and the blue chippers are gone by 8-10 in most cases. After that, it becomes more of a scheme fit thing.

Conversely, if the Bears lose....for every Broncos (BUF), Lions (TEN), Patriots (MIA), 49ers (DAL), and/or Giants (CLE) win, the Bears move up an additional spot in the draft order, as they'll have the easiest SOS of the 6-8 teams at that point (eh, Giants/Bears will be close and I'm not doing the math right now). So, a loss could mean a draft slot as high as 10 ...while a win could put them at the projected 20th pick, depending on playoff outcomes.

Am I crazy if I see a more polished version of Jimmy Butler when he came into the league? I also don't think Lauri is a good fit with this team. He either needs to hit open 3s or be able to be a small ball 5, and it doesn't look like he can do either.

League starts QB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR, WR/TE, TE, DEF, K. So we can start 1-2 RBs, 1-2 TEs, 2-4 WRs.

And McCaffery is doubtful this week. And I'm up against a really good team who beat me in our matchup this year. Tom Brady Austin Ekeler AJ Brown Tyreke Hill Justin Jefferson Calvin Ridley TJ Hockensen Seattle D (not sure why he has them) Blankenship I got: Kyler Murray David Montgomery Adam Thielen Allen Robinson Hunter Henry Tampa Bay D Joey Slye Then I got 2 spots I have to decide between DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, TY Hilton, Keke Coutee, and Nyheim Hines. I'll most likely pick the wrong 2, but I'm leaning toward Hilton (who had a big game 2 weeks ago vs. Houston and 3 straight over 18 points) and Samuel (5 of last 7 over 16 points). But Moore has a similar track record as Samuel recently and Coutee just put up 22 against the Colts 2 weeks ago. Any thoughts?

Floyd- Got 9, Gave up 11, 106 (-1) Trubisky- Got 2, Gave up 3, 67, 111, 70 (future pick) (-3) Miller- Got 51, Gave up 105, 56 (Future pick) (-1) Mack- Got Mack, 50 (future pick). Gave up 24, 19, 81 (future picks) (-2) Montgomery- Got 73 (and late picks). Gave up 87, 125 (future pick) (-1) I counted wrong by 1. Must be missing +1 somewhere in a trade down or vet trade. Martellus Bennet netted them a 4th (though they gave up a 6th). So on the whole they're net negative 1 in the top 4 rounds through this next year, while also being plus Mack and less Bennett in that movement. They also netted an Amos comp pick they traded for Foles. Early on he had some other vet trades like Marshall and Allen pick up day 3 picks, I think. And will start to pick up some more day 3 comp picks this year and perhaps next. Last time I looked he was averaging right about 7 picks per draft, so it's just a question of overall value (i.e. Should have been average 10th pick value and was 15th pic value) and then considering any outgoing and incoming vets as part of that transactional data, I suppose. I was talking about those 5 specific trades that were made for a very specific target.

Floyd- Got 9, Gave up 11, 106 (-1) Trubisky- Got 2, Gave up 3, 67, 111, 70 (future pick) (-3) Miller- Got 51, Gave up 105, 56 (Future pick) (-1) Mack- Got Mack, 50 (future pick). Gave up 24, 19, 81 (future picks) (-2) Montgomery- Got 73 (and late picks). Gave up 87, 125 (future pick) (-1) I counted wrong by 1.

QBs are worth trading up for. Edge guys probably are worth it too. You just have to hit. There definitely isn't a overall value issue there, IMO. RB, not so much, but at that point we're looking at more an exception than rule issue and he's moved up and down the middle rounds, occassionally with great success! ETA as to Mack specifically, while I think the goal obviously is to spend efficiently in a capped league, I do kind of feel like you can get away with a less than efficient purchase here and there if it adds great win value. I'd rather use every last cap dollar available and get 12 wins than spend 80% of the cap efficiently and get 10 wins (obviously it's not so simplistic, but that would be the gist of my philosophy. So you're allowed like one Mack, as long as the big picture "value" decisions make sense, IMO) That's the key. "Here and there" is prudent, Pace does it at every opportunity. Between Floyd, Trubisky, Mack, Miller, and Montgomery; Pace is at a net -9 in top 125 picks. He did get +4 in the trades down for picks used to get Whitehair and Shaheen, but all those picks were in the 110-125 area. But not sure what you mean re: Mack. If you make the trade for him (and I'm fine with that singular trade), then you best be prepared to pay him as the highest paid defensive player.

Making that statement is a fireable offense. Eh. He'll leave the Bears with a well over .500 record, the Bears all time leader in QB rating, and won't be out of the league next year. I consider that not catastrophic. It's a bad pick, but it's not Brandon Weeden, Johnny Manziel, Jamarcus Russell bad.

I think I'm ok with it too. I really want Nagy gone. I understand if a new president wants to evaluate the guys for a year, but I think it's clear Nagy is NOT the guy. I see 0 chance he's coaching the team in 2022, so don't know why he'd be here in 2021. Pace I could see staying on longer if he hits on the next coach and QB and things are looking upward pretty quickly. The key to me is not to have Pace in desperation mode. A team president should prevent big contracts with tons of dead money like he gave to Quinn, Graham and Foles. But at the same time, it probably wouldn't prevent a potentially bold move for a franchise QB. My thoughts on Nagy and Pace are complete opposites. I hated what Nagy did with the kicker search. And his offense has been garbage most of the time. But I think he's been hamstrung by Pace's roster miscues. I could see Nagy learning from his mistakes and doing better down the road, whereas I think Pace is what he is. I could see Nagy learning from his mistakes too, but I put a LOT of stock in the things he has failed at. His offense has been garbage the whole time. Going entire halves in like half his games is unforgiveable. The in-game stuff is bad too with bad timeouts and negative plays after those timeouts. And i know Pace makes the final call, but I dont think it's all his fault Nagy doesnt have an OL to work with. He seems to be adding pieces Nagy thinks he needs. The whole thing w/ Howard not being the right fit led to a trade of Howard, then a trade up for Montgomery. Gabriel and the Mooney pick were done for Nagy's desire of speed. This offseason they clearly focused on getting a QB that could run the offense Nagy wanted (which didnt work) and fixing the TE positions to Nagy's liking, including giving him one of his former Chief players. If Nagy treated OL help like he did the need for TE help, then I have no question Pace would have spent on a guard rather than Jimmy Graham.

My thoughts on Nagy and Pace are complete opposites. I hated what Nagy did with the kicker search. And his offense has been garbage most of the time. But I think he's been hamstrung by Pace's roster miscues. I could see Nagy learning from his mistakes and doing better down the road, whereas I think Pace is what he is. I'm terrified of Pace drafting sometimes. He (like every other Bears GM before him) can pick D well, but when he focuses in on an offensive player, ufff. He's a hard one for me because I like the Smith, Jackson, Johnson picks, but getting duffed on Trubisky because the 49'ers supposedly had interest from another team, and the fact he just liked Trubiskys car, scares the hell out me. Eh. His drafting has been fine. Even offensively, he's added starters/key contributors in Whitehair, Daniels, Cohen, Miller, Howard, Montgomery, Kmet, and Mooney. Trubisky wasn't even a disaster of a pick, but obviously not the right one. Getting the QB wrong though is a fireable offensse.

But it could also be because of their decision to keep everybody around! For the record, if they do bring in a legit president of football ops I have absolutely no problem with keeping Pace and Nagy this offseason. I think I'm ok with it too. I really want Nagy gone. I understand if a new president wants to evaluate the guys for a year, but I think it's clear Nagy is NOT the guy. I see 0 chance he's coaching the team in 2022, so don't know why he'd be here in 2021. Pace I could see staying on longer if he hits on the next coach and QB and things are looking upward pretty quickly. The key to me is not to have Pace in desperation mode. A team president should prevent big contracts with tons of dead money like he gave to Quinn, Graham and Foles. But at the same time, it probably wouldn't prevent a potentially bold move for a franchise QB.

Louis Riddick interviewing with the Texans and Lions this week. While he may not be the only or even best GM option, worth noting that teams are getting started on this process while the Bears aren't because of their policy to not get rid of guys midseason.

Who is pushing back against the idea that Mitch has had some success against garbage teams? The pushback was from people thinking Mitch turned a corner and learned by sitting or that Bill Lazor calling plays was all he needed to succeed.

Doesn't matter. IU/Purdue is cancelled. Cases on both sides.

I refuse to believe he couldn't get a cramp worked out on the bench. IF they had to take his pants off, put him in the tent. They have everything the sidelines except X-rays and toilets. Lamar had to horsefeathers. The internet has spoken!

I don't see Stafford as getting in the way of making QB investments. Sure maybe you're not reading up for Lance/Wilson like you've suggested, but they can play the market over the next few years too. I'd assume a Stafford contract for 4 years would have an out after year 2. I certainly wouldn't trade for him, but I'd consider him in the FA market. Not really about the lack of QB investments with him. A lot to do with his age, combined with what Jersey said, his teams have simply underachieved. If I'm spending 25-30Mil on a QB, I want him to completely move the needle independently of the rest of the team.

I don't want anything to do with Stafford. 32 isn't old, but he's definitely a short term answer to give you upper middle of the pack QB play. I'd rather invest a draft pick in a guy and hope for long-term upper middle play. Dak on the other hand could give you 10 years, with probably half of that being top 5 QB play. That being said, I don't think the Lions cut Stafford, and I don't think the Cowboys let Dak get away.

Draft a tackle w/ the early pick you don't spend on WR. Bears have lost nothing from Massie's performance with Ifedi and Spriggs starting multiple games, spend another 1.5M for a player similar to those and they'll be fine if the rookie is decent. if you could pull that off, Bateman (yea, I know, I'm a homer) might be a perfect pick at where the Bears would be drafting. But how likely is it that Prescott will hit the open market? He's 27, plays a premier position and plays it well. why wouldn't the Cowboys at least franchise him? (I really don't know what the thinking is on Prescott and Dallas at the moment) Bateman is who I had in mind. He kinda has a similar skillset to Robinson, but is much better after the catch. Cowboys already franchised Dak this year. The thinking is they won't do it again and maybe he says "screw you" to the Cowboys for playing him on the tag and him suffering a major injury.

Yeah, they could make it work. Cut Graham, Massie, Skrine, and Leno. Restructure Fuller. They can definitely get the space to make it work (easily if the cap is 195M). Dak is probably getting 35-40M AAV, but his cap number could be around 20-25M for 2021. Would probably mean no Robinson, but who cares if you have a great QB? Also, means you could spend a 1st or 2nd on a WR now that you don't have to take a QB. if you are cutting both tackles and the #1 wr, Prescott might not be great anymore. Draft a tackle w/ the early pick you don't spend on WR. Bears have lost nothing from Massie's performance with Ifedi and Spriggs starting multiple games, spend another 1.5M for a player similar to those and they'll be fine if the rookie is decent.

Kind of sounds right. If so then I'm not going to worry so much about finishing horribly so we can draft super high to get a franchise QB, when most of the franchise QBs don't come from there. Besides, we've picked high QBs before too and they didn't magically result in SBs. Prescott would be interesting, but is he going to be available and can the Bears afford him? Yeah, they could make it work. Cut Graham, Massie, Skrine, and Leno. Restructure Fuller. They can definitely get the space to make it work (easily if the cap is 195M). Dak is probably getting 35-40M AAV, but his cap number could be around 20-25M for 2021. Would probably mean no Robinson, but who cares if you have a great QB? Also, means you could spend a 1st or 2nd on a WR now that you don't have to take a QB.

No interest in any QB that's going to prevent the Bears from drafting a QB other than Dak. On a sidenote, I just read that the only QB of the 23 drafted in the top 5 this century to win a Superbowl is Eli Manning, who obviously won twice. Wentz technically has a SB ring too, but was obviously injured.