Tim

Just to clarify, I realize Beltran wasn't a draft pick.

This will be a fun debate. Let me point out a few things you haven't addressed: 1) Jones injury history. This alone makes him a more questionable prospect than others in the organization. From "the moment he stepped on the mound at Mesa", there have been tremendous questions about his ability to last a season. Since then, he's done nothing but raise those doubts to serious concerns. I would put Sisco ahead of Jones at this point for the simple reason that he has proven they can get through a season without injury. And Hagerty has to enter this conversation, too, if we're willing to accept guys that have serious injury concerns. He was looking like he could be the best of all of them before he went down for TJS. But at least you've backpedaled from your ridiculous claim that Hendry doesn't like lefties. 2) No real place for Brendan on the Cubs. You really think the Cubs would hand him the 2nd base job over Walker or Grudz in 2005? Especially if the Cubs make the playoffs and do well? 3) The presence of Lewis in AA. 4) Who the heck are the six guys the Cubs have that are "just like him [Murton]"? I'd love to konw because I think there would be a lot more excitement about the Cubs minor league system if that were the case. 5) Draft choices are hit and miss, but it's far too early to say that Harris, Beltran and Jones were hits. Beltran still has significant control issues, Harris has proven nothing at the major league level (though I still love his potential and he's the one I think it hurts to give up) and Jones's shaky health makes him a huge question mark as a "hit" at this point. You act as if those three are sure things, but they are not. 6) You keep referring to Nomar as "past his prime". While he is 31 and isn't the player he was when he was 26, it's not like the Cubs just gave up those three players to get Omar Vizquel. Nomar is still one of the top 5 shortstops in the game, by quite a comfortable margin. Considering SS is the hardest position to find that kind of production other than catcher, I think it is reasonable to have to pay that kind of ransom. Besides, even Nomar's decline phase is darned impressive. You check his stats lately?

Well, you've successfully outlined the worst-case scenario. Now for a dose of reality: 1) The Cubs didn't add much, if any payroll through this trade. They got cash back from Boston and apparently don't have to pay any of Gonzo's salary. That should pretty well even things out over the last two months of the year. 2) While the Cubs gave up three good prospects, the losses of those players can be rationalized: Beltran was being beaten out in the pen by Leicester and Welly. We've also got a slew of other righties that can play that role. Harris is a significant loss, as I've been very excited about him for three years now. But he is more likely to be a solid contributor than a superstar. The Cubs are likely to re-sign Walker and have Ramirez at third, leaving little room for Harris. The presence of Lewis also helps ease the loss of Harris. Yes, Jones has a huge ceiling. But he's also been completely unable to stay healthy in his time with the Cubs. As for having a "righty fetish", I really can't see where you're coming from. There are a TON of lefties "left" in the system. Sisco, Hagerty, Pinto, Downs, Connelly, Vasquez, Hill and others. In fact, Daytona nearly had an all lefty, all prospect rotation for a while this year. Murton, who came to the Cubs from the Sox in the trade, can hit. He's probably near the same level of prospect as Harris, but he won't take up a 40 man roster spot for another year, which will be important this winter. If the Cubs don't re-sign Nomar, they'll almost certainly offer arbitration and receive two first round picks in return. Those picks, when combined with Murton pretty much fully compensate for the loss of Harris, Beltran and Jones. Which means that if Nomar goes elsewhere, we got a rental of Nomar for the low, low cost of Gonzo. If Nomar re-signs, we get one of MLB's best shortstops for the price of a couple of good, but not A+ prospects (and Gonzo). The chances that this becomes a bad deal for the Cubs are pretty minimal unless Nomar's achilles blows out and he spends the rest of the season on the DL. The chances that this becomes a great deal for the Cubs are much, much higher.

Welcome!

so did wood's, it will take him at least until the beginning of next year. They've made a lot of progress in the rehab procedures in the past few years to speed up the timetable dramatically. Burnett has looked very good in his rehab starts. I guess we'll see, though.

Thanks for dropping by to answer our questions, Will. Keep up the great work on BP and I, for one, eagerly anticipate the release of your book!

Feel free to add additional questions to this thread as the chat continues. I will add them to the chat thread in the other forum as we go.

North Side Baseball welcomes Will Carroll, who is here today to talk about the Cubs, keeping pitchers healthy and what the various teams in MLB are doing to improve in that area. If you have additional questions during the chat, please enter them in the "Questions for Will Carroll" thread.

North Side Baseball is proud to announce a chat with Will Carroll, writer of the "Under the Knife" column for Baseball Prospectus and author of "Saving the Pitcher", a book on preventing pitching injuries that will shortly be hitting the bookshelves. Will is going to join us after the Cubs / Cards game on Monday, May 3rd at 4pm (CT) to talk about the findings in his book, what is being done throughout baseball to prevent pitching injuries, what people like Dr. James Andrews are recommending to baseball teams and more. Will is also a big Cubs fan, so he's very aware of the arms on the big league club and within the system. Oh, it is also possible that the subject of Mark Prior's injury and recovery may come up. So please join us next Monday to chat with Will. If you would like to submit your questions in advance, feel free to enter them here.

Berkman's only got 4+ years of service time unless he spent an awful lot of time on the DL in 1999 and 2000. I can't see how he'd be a free agent yet.

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