That's not true. They've were -5 pythagorean wins, they had 17 wins worth of sub-replacement players, and they have $60-75 million to spend if they want to. They could contend if they felt like it was a priority. But what is there to spend it on? The only way I see them contending in 2013 is if they sign 2 of the better SP on the market, Upton, trade for a 3B (Wright) and sign/trade for another 2-3 relievers. Even then it'd be iffy. Cincy and St. Louis probably aren't going away, and the Brewers probably aren't going to be that bad, either. There would be a chance, but as David put it, it'd be a puncher's chance at best. But the point is that 2013 being approached as a likely lost season shouldn't be surprising, and very modest ticket price drop isn't indicative of anything that wasn't already perfectly clear. Well, since you added in Wright, if they did all that, I'm not sure why they wouldn't be considered to have more than a puncher's chance... LF - Soriano CF - Upton RF - DeJesus 1B - Rizzo 2B - Barney SS - Castro 3B - Wright C - Castillo SP (this is where it gets pretty good) - Samardzija, Garza, 2 of Sanchez/Marcum/McCarthy/Jackson, Wood RP - Marmol, those guys you mentioned trading for/signing plus some other guys, just way less terrible than 2012's version I don't see why that team isn't legitimately in contention for the division You're probably right. But let's say Theo & Jed set out to accomplish those things, what do you think the chances are that they'd get it all done? There's going to be heavy competition in the market for the better SP (including from teams who can spend), and if Wright goes on market, there will be heavy competition for him as well. Upton is going to have some suitors as well. This idea that the Cubs can be contenders in 2013 is Theo and Jed simply decide to "try" is gross oversimplification. The sea isn't simply going to part so the FO can get whomever they decide to target. Not even the Yankees and Red Sox have/had 100% "get" rates. The Cubs can absolutely get better in 2013, and there's no reason they shouldn't. But any expectation that they will or could realistically contend through simple effort is probably a tad misguided.