dew1679666265
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Everything posted by dew1679666265
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Dempster had an exceptional year in 2008, but it's not like he fell into complete mediocrity after that. 2008: 2.96/3.41/3.69 ERA/FIP/xFIP - 8.14 K/9, 3.31 BB/9 - 5.2 fWAR 2009: 3.65/3.87/3.76 ERA/FIP/xFIP - 7.74 K/9, 2.93 BB/9 - 3.7 fWAR 2010: 3.85/3.99/3.74 ERA/FIP/xFIP - 8.69 K/9, 3.50 BB/9 - 3.4 fWAR 2011: 4.80/3.91/3.70 ERA/FIP/xFIP - 8.50 K/9, 3.65 BB/9 - 2.8 fWAR Going by ERA, he's gotten worse each year and was pretty bad in 2011. However, the peripherals say something completely different. His WAR has gotten worse each year, but it's still pretty respectable and his K/9 and BB/9 have remained pretty consistent. He's not a guy I'm building around, but he's not a guy I'm looking to dump for nothing either.
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I'm confident logic and sensible thinking will eventually prevail in San Diego.
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Justin Wilcox and Peter Sirmon leave Tennessee for Washington. This is bad news for the 2012 recruiting class. Dooley's going to have to make some sort of a splashy hire (Kevin Steele maybe?) to salvage this class as Sirmon was apparently heavily involved in a large number of our better commitments.
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For the Indy fans, was the Polians news expected? It kind of surprised me.
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Got to figure Norv Turner (and maybe AJ Smith) and Raheem Morris will soon be canned as well. Also heard Schefter this morning on Mike and Mike saying Jim Tressel would get some interest for a head coaching job.
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Figured I'd start this up with this news:
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It depends on the extent of the rebuild, I think. I think the extent depends a lot on whether they trade Garza or not. I'm a bit wary of the potential contracts the FA pitchers are going to get next year (I'm expecting 6 years to be the minimum most of them get) and no matter who we get for Garza, he probably won't be a TOR type of guy by 2013. If we're not going to be set up well to compete in 2013, then I'm not a big fan of signing Prince. If he signs, say, a 6 year deal, you figure there's a good chance he'll be declining heavily the last couple years of the deal and if we're rebuilding for a couple years on the front-end, that leaves just a couple years where he's helping us compete. That's probably not worth a huge contract.
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Dempster had a rocky year last year, but a large part of it was bad luck and bad defense. His peripherals were pretty well in line with the rest of his career, so there's plenty of reason to believe he could rebound entering next season. How good will he be beyond 2012 however? I don't know, but it's not all that outlandish to think he could be a decent middle of the rotation guy going forward.
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Even if we trade Garza, I think offense is what is going to (likely) keep us from contending in 2013. If we get serious about winning by then, there will most likely be elite FA starting pitchers to bid on. We'll also have the option of bringing back Dempster if he looks like he has a couple years left, or we could wait out Edwin Jackson and try to get him on a team-friendly deal this offseason. While there are plenty of high end, or potential high end, pitching options out there, there's nothing apparent on the offensive side outside of Prince and, depending on your view, Cespedes. We could get lucky and there could be a team offering a young, elite offensive talent for something less than a king's ransom, but barring luck I don't see this offense being all that good by 2013. As the 2010 Giants showed, you don't have to have a great (or even good) offense to make the playoffs and the World Series, but we're going to have to build a really good pitching staff in a short period of time to make up for what is looking to be a pretty pedestrian offense in 2012 and probably 2013 as well.
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Misc. Free Agent News
dew1679666265 replied to Clem Fandango's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I wasn't advocating anything in that post - I was simply pointing out that if Wood is demanding market value for the role we'd likely have him in, he's probably demanding market value for a set-up man rather than a generic middle reliever as Truffle originally said. And that may well be the holdup - Theo/Hoyer want to pay him like a middle reliever, but he wants set-up money. -
Hopefully Theo/Hoyer/McLeod saw something in these kids that BA did not, because the scouting report from BA wasn't exciting. They are young, though, so they have plenty of time to work on things.
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Anthony Rizzo
dew1679666265 replied to TheDude's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
MLBTR -
Misc. Free Agent News
dew1679666265 replied to Clem Fandango's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
With Marshall gone, Wood probably is the set-up man. I think $2.5-3 with incentives is probably market value for a decent set-up man. -
Why Soto? Who would you replace him with? Why - Because he's nearly 30, a catcher, and we appear to be going into 1-2 year full rebuild mode. He'll likely be in major decline by the time we're ready to compete again. Who do you replace him with - Probably Castillo, but it doesn't really matter. We're going to be bad next year and Soto isn't going change that alone. That said, I'd wait until midseason to deal him. Give him a chance to have a big first half and build his value back up. You're selling really low on him right now.
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Since we're not trying to win for at least 1, if not 2, years I see no reason to deal Cashner. Rizzo is interesting, but since we're going full rebuild mode we have the time to let Cashner work his way back into full health and see if he can be the TOR guy we've had him pegged as.
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Ryan Madson?
dew1679666265 replied to KingCubsFan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
In all likelihood if we don't sign Prince, we're going to have somewhere in the area of $20-40 million under payroll that is looking to be unspent this offseason - even if we sign both Cespedes and Soler. That's already accounting for having a draft and IFA budget under the $200 million baseball budget. I have a hard time believing we would spend $20+ million on IFA. So, I think what gooney is saying is take some of that extra cash under the payroll, sign a guy like Madson and turn him into prospects over and above spending as freely as possible on the draft/IFA. If we have as much payroll space as it appears we might, Kuroda could be an option to do that with as well. I'm not 100% sold on the idea of Madson and Marmol together and I'd be completely opposed to it if we were trying to contend, but since W/L really doesn't matter next year it makes for having two "proven" closers as tradeable assets pretty tempting. -
I thought he had the surgery fairly early in the year. Wouldn't that get him back by mid 2012? Or am I thinking wrong on recovery time for TJS? I was also thinking the breakout year might have boosted his stock up to a future #2 type, but maybe not. The bolded is true for almost all of our impact hitters as well, though. I was thinking some on here thought of Wells as a potential TOR guy, but maybe not. Depends on what you see the ceiling on some of those guys as. Much as I like Candelerio, Hernandez, and Amaya I just don't know what to expect out of them. I really like Vogelbach, Golden, and Dunston, though. Maybe I was just putting extra emphasis on the offensive prospect since Montero can play first and there's such a lack of real first base talent available.
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What do you think of Whitenack? There's a lot of question there, but he was really picking it up before he got hurt. There's not much in the way of impact in the top levels on either side, but I've gotten the feeling that most of our potential elite guys in the lower levels were pitchers - Wells and Maples in particular. I also think we have more pitching depth than we do offensive depth and free agency (if we get involved in that) is much more pitching heavy than offense heavy and I wouldn't oppose adding one of the FA starters next offseason. Like I said, though, I would be pretty happy with pretty much any of the Toronto deals rumored, I simply would prefer getting an elite bat like Montero along with the pitching instead of just high end pitching if I had the choice.
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I see what you did there. I edited it to clear up your confusion.
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To each his own. You don't like the packages?
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The Blue Jays deals I've seen tossed around are really intriguing, but I'd really, really love to see us get Montero. I think I'd be happy with a slightly lesser package from the Yankees if it included Montero. This organization needs impact bats more than it needs impact pitching, I think, and Montero fits that bill well. Montero + pitching would be pretty much a dream deal for me.
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That's a great sign for the Marshall trade - Bailey should have commanded far more than Marshall, and yet it's debatable who got the better end of the deal.
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How does Oakland's return compare to what the Cubs got for Marshall? Without looking up a comparison, I tend to prefer Reddick to Wood but not by much. From the little I've heard about the prospects Oakland got, however, I think I prefer the guys the Cubs received. Thoughts?
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I'd probably put Cespedes and BJax around the same level as far as helping us win. I don't think either will really help us win this year, but that wasn't the reason I wanted to see Jackson starting in CF this year either. As for the stated plans, the beauty of what Theo and Jed have said to this point is that it can be taken as anything. I can easily make Pujols fit into what they've said, just as I can make Soler fit. What I think they're doing is setting us up to be really good by 2014 and both Cespedes and Soler fit that model well.
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Keep in mind that $50-60 million will be spread out over anywhere from 6-10 years most likely. That makes his AAV around $8-10 million, while Prince would command something like $25 million AAV. There's far less risk involved in Cespedes (and I've been a big Prince advocate) and his physique gives him a better long term prognosis than Prince. That said, if the idea was to attempt to contend within the next couple of years, I would prefer Prince. But if we're planning to punt a couple of years, Cespedes would probably be the better option.