Dammit. I just put together an in depth response to this part, but got sidetracked and was bounced out of NSBB when I hit submit. Anyway, I basically said you aren't necessarily being unreasonable, just overly optimistic. Teams really need huge improvements at positions to make that kind of bounce from year to year, like LA did from 2005-2006, when they replaced a .279 mess in LF with a .387, because of a great new young player and fantastic OBP from his backup. They also replaced an Izturis led SS position with a Furcal led one, that provided a 52 point bounce. Well, this version isn't going to be nearly as interesting, but I predict something closer to a .325-.330 range in team OBP (barring a shocking move in CF or SS), and middle of the NL pack. This is a Hendry team, and Hendry is not an OBP friendly GM. He's begun to acknowledge it's existence, but he's yet to acquire any true OBP stars. Middle of the pack in OBP would be an accomplishment for Hendry. I don't know where I'm being overly optimitistic. optimisim has Lee up back around .400 or Aram at .370 or Soriano to repeat his obp of last year. I do none of these things. I don't portend that DeRosa will repeat his OBP from last year or even give an expected improvement even though he was 30 points above Cubs second basemen last year, I don't predict Murton to do anything he hasn't done before (although I do expect improvement whether it is Murton full time or with a better platoon). I say that Izturis will be around .295 even though his last uninjured season he was up at .330. I think Hendry loves OBP....as long as it is ave. driven. edit - in fact, I don't think there is anybody on this board that is overly optimistic. there are those that try to be reasonable and give an estimation of what is likely to happen, and those that are just completely, unreasonably pessimistic. I wish I could have seen the way you broke it down, but have to give you credit for at least trying, as opposed to those who say "they will be terrible, they haven't improved at all" then remain silent when faced with a solid case to the contrary. I don't necessarily agree with this statement. There are some posters who tend to expect everything good that could happen will just like there are some who expect everything bad that could happen will. I can understand both sides, but tend to try to find middle ground myself.