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What is the current makeup of the Braves hierarchy, and how does it compare to the one that actually led them to and through greatness? We're going on 4 years of mediocrity with that organization, a bit more of a fall from grace than what Cleveland went through after their much less ballyhooed period of success. Not that this has anything to do with Glavine, but I'm not sure we should just assume Atlanta is making all the right moves anymore. The biggest changes that I know of are Frank Wren as GM with Schuerholz now the team president and Dayton Moore gone to KC. Wren seems far more willing to go the mediocre veteran route to shoot for a lucky playoff spot as opposed to building through the minors as much as Schuerholz and Cox did.

And mentioned other stars of old who he knew had used them as well - mistakes all.

I'd wager we don't make the 98 and 03 playoffs without Sammy. And save for the 03 and 04 teams, he was never on a team close to good enough to make the World Series. Just throwing it out there, though, Ernie Banks never got his teams to the postseason and Billy Williams had a career .125 OPS in the playoffs.

He is currently guaranteed through the 2010 season and has a vesting option for 2011. If he plays 75 games this year - and this year only - the option automatically vests and become guaranteed for 2011. If it doesn't automatically vest, then I believe it's a team option. Games played is a not a good indicator to base a vesting option on. He could reach that simply by staying on the bench and pinch hitting once and awhile. I thought it was originally reported that the vesting option was 300 abs or something like that. Either way, it looks like unless he has a serious injury, he will be with the Cubs for another two years. I agree. It should have been X number of ABs. Or at least if you make it games, make it 120-150 or something and do it for both years.

He is currently guaranteed through the 2010 season and has a vesting option for 2011. If he plays 75 games this year - and this year only - the option automatically vests and become guaranteed for 2011. If it doesn't automatically vest, then I believe it's a team option.

If you have any extra room at any point, let me know. I'd be quite interested.

When I've seen the rumors, that's what would happen. Holliday in left and Soriano to 2B. I know Sori would be awful at 2B, but man would it help our offense. I posted in another discussion that putting Fox at 3B might not be any worse than Soriano at 2B defensively. While I agree that Fox isn't a ML 3B, Soriano has proven that he's not a ML 2B. In any case, using Fox wouldn't cost us the prospects that trading for Holliday would. We know Soriano can hit major league pitching very well. We don't know that about Fox. When you're talking about assured awful defense, it helps greatly to be certain the player will also give you very good offense. And even then, I don't think I support the acquire Holliday/move Sori to second idea.

In 1996, the year he hit 40, he played just 124 games. He then broke his hand on a pitch in late August. He had hit 10 home runs each month prior to that (save for April when he hit 6). He was on a pace to hit somewhere around 8-12 more home runs the final 6 weeks of the season. As we've seen with injured hands/wrists, there is a great likelihood an injury such as that can sap power for a period of time (look at Derrek Lee). So, if you assume a full season in 96 for Sosa, you're looking at 48-52 home runs - which makes the 1998 outburst look more in line with where he was heading. Like DLee, that 36 in 1997 was likely due to the hand regaining the power it once had. Two of his first three months in 97 his slugging percentage was in the .300s. In July, August and September, that SLG improved to .411, .535 and .489. August was the one-year mark after breaking his hand. In 2006, after DLee injured his wrist, he played in 36 more games. He hit a grand total of 5 home runs and 5 doubles in those games. Like Sammy, a full year after the injury took place, DLee was back to slugging .567 in April of 2007. Similar injuries, similar return to production timelines for both players. Could Sammy have used steroids? Certainly. Is looking at his raw home run totals worth much of anything in the debate? Certainly not.

I just think that on a team like Oakland or San Diego hed be more likely to crack the rotation, maybe even this year. With us, hed maybe get a September call and next year be fighting for a rotation spot. He would be more likely to see the majors sooner with another team, but I don't think there's much of a chance at all that he'll waive the NTC. From everything he's said, he's pretty determined to player near home and that overrides everything else.

What makes you think this team is capable of playing .600 ball like they did last year? Is Dempster going to have an ERA under 3 the rest of the way like last season? Are we going to trade for DeRosa and get an .857 OPS from him again? Is Fontenot going to OPS over .900 again? Is Wood going to come back and be the closer again? Is Edmonds going to sign and give us like a .950 OPS again? Is Soto going to put up an .870 OPS again? Is Ramirez going to come back tomorrow and start mashing again? This is not 2008. It's 2009. This is a completely different team. Also stop comparing them to the 2004 Cardinals. It's pointless. That team was way better. A team can improve a number of ways after two months of a season. Edmonds may not sign with us and OPS .900, but who's to say Bradley cannot? If he can stay healthy, he's shown he can OPS .900+ over a period of a time. Wood may not return to close, but Gregg may become adequate or Hendry may pull a trade for a good closer. DeRosa may not return and OPS .857 again, but Fontenot may OPS that and we may acquire Branyan who gives us similar production to last year's Fontenot. And again, we may not win 97 games this year (I'm not going out on a limb, I realize). But we may end up winning 89-92 and barely squeaking past St. Louis/Milwaukee/whoever. But the fact is, it's possible that this team - and whatever additions may come - can win at a rate necessary to reach the playoffs and if they do that, they are capable of winning there.

When I've seen the rumors, that's what would happen. Holliday in left and Soriano to 2B. I know Sori would be awful at 2B, but man would it help our offense. It would definitely be fantastic for the offense. It's almost tempting to pull for it.

When I've seen the rumors, that's what would happen. Holliday in left and Soriano to 2B.

I would much rather use the prospects to go after Cantu or Sanchez who could move permantly to 2B after Ramirez returns and are both young enough to help in the future. Do you mean Freddy Sanchez? He's 31 and before this year had one season with an OPS+ over 103. Cantu has been terrific the first month of this year, but terrible in the second. Part of that is injury, but he's been very inconsistent over his career and his only two good seasons (110 and 112 OPS+s) were only above average.

Historically Bradley has about 2 years of great production and Dunn was always the clear winner on the "likelihood to keep being productive" scale. You don't really want to talk "historically" if you are trying to pimp Bradley over Dunn. It was all about hoping 2007/2008 were real and he was capable of maintaining those numbers. Bradley had the upside hopes, Dunn had the better track record. I'm not trying to pimp Bradley over Dunn. I wanted Dunn in the offseason and made that fairly clear. What I am saying is that it's perfectly rational to support signing Bradley over Dunn. Plenty of very rational people on this board made the argument that Bradley, when healthy, could outproduce Dunn when you factor in Dunn's abysmal defense. I didn't agree with them, but that doesn't mean the argument was "laughable" as Arnold Layne stated.

Aurilia hasn't done much of anything since 2006. Gaetti had at least been decent before landing with the Cubs. While I agree with you, I can see Lou and Hendry being interested if he is released. A veteran who can play 3B and pinch hit without costing us players or much money might be hard to pass up. Yeah, they may be. If they sign him, though, I'll be even more stunned that Durham remains unsigned.

And you are happy with the signing knowing that? First off there are only 162 games a year, I was being facetious because you said 300 a year. I guess you meant 100 games a year and that's what I expected. I'm not surprised by the injuries, I am by the performance. He had 19 games in the field last year. What was it the year before that? Every game he played (62) in 2007 he spent in the outfield. 2008 is the only year of his career that he's spent a majority of the time as a DH and he's still been productive in the field in those years. Right. Hard to be disappointing when no one expects much any more. The lack of power is a major concern. Yeah, the lack of power is a concern, but he's still been productive. Lee is not a suprise, though. Really? I thought his playoff statistics were a pretty decent indicator of the depths he can sink to. Let me know when he hits that way over 162 games and then I won't be surprised by it. Maybe, but $140 mill should cushion. Yes, but that's not what the discussion was about. The discussion was about whether it was a surprise. And it was. Marmol was not all roses last year. He had some control issues. That said, one man does not make a bullpen. The Cubs bullpen as currently constructed is not on a competent level, let alone a level indicating a $140 million payroll. If Marmol weren't walking a man per inning, he'd be a much more stabilizing force in the pen. Otherwise, I agree the rest of the pen hasn't been particularly good - and that's not a shock. I think it was laughable when you look at it in the context of the Cubs needed to shore up a problematic spot in RF. If that position is plaguing you year in and year out, is the first thing that comes to your mind " injury prone DH"? The first thing that comes to mind is that we needed good to great production. Historically, both Bradley and Dunn have been highly productive players. Bradley had health issues and Dunn had defensive issues, so neither was a sure thing player, but both were good options.

That is just all kinds of nonsense. Soriano was never a superstar. His is producing right now at 33, at just about the same rate he produced at 28 for Texas. He is well outside his peak age range, and nothing he has done can be considered surprising. Everybody with a brain knew the contract was bad. Everybody knew his best years would be in the beginning, and that it could get ugly. I don't believe he scratched the surface of how ugly he can get down the road. Furthermore what he's done this year is one good month and one bad. And he's had plenty of bad months in his career. Nothing that has happened can be considered shocking. Soto didn't have spring training, got fat, and now he stinks. That happens. The closest "surprise" is Bradley struggling, but that can't be considered entirely flukey, given his age and injury history, plus the lack of a longterm track record of significant success. High payroll teams have to be built to withstand setbacks, the Cubs didn't really suffer any last year, but now they are going through what teams go through all the time, and looking really weak in the process. I'm not questioning that the team was built poorly this past offseason, but Soto being awful, Bradley being awful and Ramirez going out for most of the year were not expected occurences. If the former two were just struggling, that'd be one thing, but they've been horrific - and that is a surprise. As for Soriano, I was talking more about his recent mega-slump. A .455 OPS over a two-week period is not normal for a slumping Soriano. And yes, his contract will get bad but there's little reason to expect him to be bad this year. His overall numbers are ok considering the awful slump, but the past two weeks have been a surprise.

First off, I'd be shocked and ecstatic if he found a way to play 300 games a year. :D Second, he's played the field fairly recently in the past and hit fine. Injury has been a concern with him, not production. His lack of the latter is a pretty major surprise. The fact that he's got over a .900 OPS the past month isn't a surprise. He's also not been that much of a disappointment. And, by definition, a bust is a surprise. This is far more substandard than he's ever given us or anyone. A major injury is still a surprise and can't be predicted, though. The bullpen has been worse than expected, but you can't tell me you expected Marmol to be bad. Bradley is a proven impact bat as well. I preferred Dunn, but Bradley's signing was far from laughable.

Aurilia hasn't done much of anything since 2006. Gaetti had at least been decent before landing with the Cubs.

For Harden, I think his demands would dictate whether or not we bring him back. If he's asking for $15+ million or something crazy, I'd say we'll pass. If he's looking for $7-$10 million for a couple to three years, there may be some interest there. Marshall will likely be back in the rotation next year, but we'll see about Wells and Shark. Shark may or may not be ready and I want to see more from Wells before I hand him a spot. I don't think anybody will give Reed a starting gig. He simply can't hit righties. If he demands more than what he's currently getting, though, it'll be hard to justify bringing him back. If Fuku continues to be terrific then he may be the full-time starter in center next year, leaving nowhere for Reed to get consistent ABs (unless he's content waiting out a Bradley injury). Someone may well offer more playing time to Reed, but I don't think it'll be a starting job.

I think there's a good chance payroll stays right around where it's been. I don't think Ricketts will bump it up much, but I don't think the Trib would have either. We're getting really close to the luxury tax, I believe. Im not worried about the bump in payroll, just the cut. If they plan on letting Jim spend is usual, we'll be ok for the future and not worry about going back to a 90's Cubs team. As for the off season, we'll probably be taking the salarys of Harden and Gregg as well as whatever were still paying DeRosa and Marquis off the books. Also, probably Reed Johnson. Im not quite sure how much that is, but if they focus on the pen, we should be able to get some solid relievers out of that money and then some. The in 2011, Lee and Lilly will both be free, and that will free up a lot of dough. Then again, if Bradley keeps getting hurt and is eligible to let the Cubs out of the contract, Id be all for cutting him and going back to the drawing board to fill RF. Did Dunn get a 1 or 2 year deal from the Nats? I don't see any reason why Ricketts would buy the team and then slash payroll significantly. It'll probably stay roughly where it is now. As for the payroll we're losing after this year, I figured up roughly $24 million freed up after the year. Harden ($7M), Gregg ($4.2M), Reed ($3M), Vizcaino ($3.18M), Gaudin ($2M), Heilman ($1.62M), Cotts ($1.1M), and then Marquis ($875,000), Gathright ($700,000) and Bako ($178,000). The only raises of significance that I saw were Soriano up $2M, Dempster up $4.5M and Kosuke up $1.5M. So that puts up somewhere in the $16 million range to fill next year's needs if we don't shave further salary elsewhere. Lee and Lilly both departing after the 2010 season would net us around $25 million ($13 for Lee and $12 for Lilly). Obviously some of those players have a chance to return (Reed and Harden especially).

Ibanez is pretty much the same positive surprise that Bradley is a negative surprise. Abreu isn't quite setting the world on fire offensively (.382 SLG and a .774 OPS) and he's been mediocre in the field (-0.2 UZR). Dunn has been awesome at the plate (.971 OPS), but terrible in the field (-11.6 UZR).

Bradley wanted to play for the Cubs as well. Dunn would have been a safer bet than Bradley since he was pretty much a certainty to be healthy, but Bradley had more upside. Dunn loses some of his value because of how bad he is in the outfield, which means Bradley would be better if he could just stay healthy (and, apparently, hit as well).

I think there's a good chance payroll stays right around where it's been. I don't think Ricketts will bump it up much, but I don't think the Trib would have either. We're getting really close to the luxury tax, I believe.

hopefully it will be more along the lines of a Hoffpauir/Johnson platoon (with Fukudome playing pretty much everyday), but I won't hold my breathe. This probably won't happen either, but I may be tempted to like a Hoff/Fox platoon in right for the duration of Bradley's injury. The defense would be awful, but Fox would be less of a focus in RF than at 3B.