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dew1679666265

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Everything posted by dew1679666265

  1. dew1679666265
    Those are all concerns, but high ceiling prospects aren't mediocre. High risk/high reward is a much better description of Gaub and Archer (moreso Archer than Gaub). I don't see how Stevens - who is a legit major league arm - is anywhere close to mediocre, though. Gaub looks to have the highest ceiling. Stevens seems to project to be more of a middle reliever. I believe Archer still has starting upside (back of the rotation, probably), so I'd say he has the highest ceiling. Stevens probably is more of a middle reliever, but I wouldn't completely rule out a ceiling of a set-up man.
  2. dew1679666265
    Would anyone do this hypothetical trade: Soriano for Vernon Wells. Both are signed through 2014. Soriano is due $18 million a year from 2010 to 2014. Wells is due this: 10:$12.5M, 11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M. That would save the Cubs $5.5 million next year, but then they'd have $5 million less in 2011 and $3 million less in each of 2012-2014. Soriano is 33, Wells is 30. Soriano has consistently been better than Wells throughout his career, but with Wells being younger, could he have a chance to be better than Soriano from here on out? Could a change of scenery (or more specifically, working with Von Joshua) help Wells? For those who care, UZR/150 has them as similar defensive players, though Soriano is a right fielder and Wells is a left fielder. I'm not sure I'd be in favor of this, but it was something I thought about and figured I'd toss it out for popular consumption.
  3. dew1679666265
    Those are all concerns, but high ceiling prospects aren't mediocre. High risk/high reward is a much better description of Gaub and Archer (moreso Archer than Gaub). I don't see how Stevens - who is a legit major league arm - is anywhere close to mediocre, though.
  4. dew1679666265
    Thanks. I couldn't remember, but figured they were probably for FA signings. In my opinion, giving up picks in the 2-4 range for Howry and Eyre isn't undervaluing picks. Both were consistently good before coming to the Cubs and both were productive more often than they were not as Cubs. Jones wasn't as good a use of the pick, but chances are high you'll get a Jacque Jones type in rounds 2-4. Obviously you hope for more, but Jones wasn't a bad player for us.
  5. dew1679666265
    All three have improved their stock this season. Gaub has been fully healthy all year, Stevens is on the edge of making the majors and Archer has improved his control considerably (106:84 K:BB last year to 104:57 K:BB this year). Archer is also only 20 in A ball - ahead of schedule by a decent amount, I believe. Stevens will turn 26 in September and is just about major league ready, so he's not much (if at all) behind schedule for a good prospect. Gaub is getting back on schedule, as he's now pitching in AAA at 24. His numbers so far in AAA: 0.71 ERA/10 H/25.1 IP/28:10 K:BB. They're not great prospects, but they're certainly not mediocre either. All have good chances at productive ML careers.
  6. dew1679666265
    I saw him hit two homer's in the Lilly rehab game. Looks great. Yeah, I haven't watched him yet, but everything I've heard has been very good. If he can stick in center (which it appears he can) then that's looking like a much better pick than originally thought.
  7. dew1679666265
    Stevens, Gaub and Archer aren't mediocre prospects. Stevens still has good upside as a reliever while Gaub and Archer both are top 20 prospects in the organization. Gaub might be top 10 and the only reason Archer isn't higher is because he's still at a low level. Gaub has set-up type potential as does Stevens. Archer could very well end up starting in the majors. All three have been very good in the minors this year and Stevens has gotten some major league success with us already. They are certainly better than the likely players the Cubs could have gotten with the DeRosa picks. I don't remember exactly where those three picks in the 06 draft went and I can't find anything to remind me. The reason he gave up those picks is key to how much he valued them.
  8. dew1679666265
    Mid 20s now, but that was before the Cubs system showed a ton of promise this year with breakout seasons from very young players (Castro, Jay Jackson, Chris Carpenter, Kyler Burke, Cashner, Vitters, Brett Jackson, DJ LaMahieu, HJ Lee, etc). The current thought is that the farm system could very well end up in the high teens to start next year. And, as a former scouting director, I think Hendry values picks quite a bit. If he doesn't offer Gregg arbitration, it's likely be because he expects Gregg would accept the arbitration.
  9. dew1679666265
    Maybe not really exciting, but there are some very interesting role players on that list - about what you can expect, I'd say, without picks 2-4. Guys who may still play a role on the major league squad: Tyler Colvin (still could blossom into a starter at one of the corners) Jeff Samardzija (still very high upside) Steve Clevenger Blake Parker Jeremy Papelbon Was it a great draft? No, but the 07 and 08 drafts are looking very good and the 09 draft has some good potential. The international signings are also looking extremely intriguing (headlined by Starlin Castro, a 20 year old SS heating up at AA) and I believe Wilken has at least decent authority over it.
  10. dew1679666265
    Normally the success rate of 1st rounders can be low, but Wilken has proven over the years to be very good at drafting players who make the majors. While with the Blue Jays, he had 12 consecutive first round picks make the majors. During his time with the Jays, here's a list of first rounders: 2002 Russ Adams 2001 Gabe Gross 2000 Miguel Negron 1999 Alex Rios 1998 Felipe Lopez 1997 Vernon Wells 1996 Joe Lawrence 1996 Billy Koch 1995 Roy Halladay 1994 Kevin Witt 1993 Chris Carpenter 1992 Todd Steverson 1992 Shannon Stewart 1991 Shawn Green 1990 Steve Karsay 1989 Eddie Zosky The bolded are very good to great MLB players. The italicized are role players of varying degrees. That's a really good ratio and makes it very well worth getting extra picks for Gregg.
  11. dew1679666265
    Only players who are on the 40-man roster can be protected from the Rule 5 draft. If Gaub and Parker are called up in September, they'll also be placed on the 40-man and, thus, protected from the Rule 5 draft.
  12. dew1679666265
    And also, it's very early, but here's the Cubs' 2009 1st round pick Brett Jackson's A ball (Peoria) performance so far: Jackson at A: .309/.396/.515/.911 97 ABs He's also 20 years old.
  13. dew1679666265
    Cashner at AA: 2.92 ERA/25 H/37 IP/31:17 K:BB Colvin at AA: .296/.336/.508/.844 250 ABs I see your point that minor league success doesn't mean as much as major league success, but you also can't use guys drafted 35 years, 25 years, 15 years and even 5 years ago by different people to discredit Wilken's ability. The Cubs' system has improved steadily since Wilken took over. EDIT: Cashner is 22 at AA and Colvin is 23.
  14. dew1679666265
    These three are Tim Wilken picks. Cashner is getting better with every start and is viewed as a potential 2-3 starter or potentially a closer and Vitters appears to be a future star. Colvin has struggled, but is still on the path to the majors.
  15. dew1679666265
    Alfonso Soriano and Todd Hundley say hello. Hundley wasn't a Hendry signing - he was, I believe, a MacPhail signing. Either MacPhail or Ed Lynch. It was MacPhail. Lynch resigned as GM during the 2000 season. Hundley was signed after that season. Thanks. I couldn't remember exactly when the transition from Lynch to MacPhail took place.
  16. dew1679666265
    Because Wagner could potentially help next year. Exactly. Would have been a good gamble. Id take Wagner at 8mil for 1 year, over Valverde or Soriano. Depending on Soriano's cost I'd take him over Wagner. The two have put up similar numbers in their careers, but Soriano is only 29 and Wagner is 39. The advantage Wagner would have is that he'd only be on a one-year deal, while Soriano would likely command 2-3 years. Soriano career: 2.83 ERA/1.01 WHIP/337:96 K:BB/312 IP Wagner career: 2.40 ERA/1.00 WHIP/1068:270 K:BB/819 IP Yea all things being equal, Id take Soriano as well. But we both know Soriano is going to get a 2-4 year deal, and I really dont want to hand out any multi year deals to the bullpen. Im hoping for Wagner for a year closing, with Marmol and Guzman setting up, with Stevens, in there as well. Then when next year is over hopefully Marmol, Guz, or Stevens would be willing to step in and replace Wagner, and bring in some more kids to the pen. I hate spending money and years on the bullpen. This would allow us to go pretty cheap in the pen, with some good quality for the next few years. I can understand that. Soriano's extreme consistency every year might make him an exception, but he is also 30.
  17. dew1679666265
    Alfonso Soriano and Todd Hundley say hello. Hundley wasn't a Hendry signing - he was, I believe, a MacPhail signing. Either MacPhail or Ed Lynch.
  18. dew1679666265
    Because Wagner could potentially help next year. Exactly. Would have been a good gamble. Id take Wagner at 8mil for 1 year, over Valverde or Soriano. Depending on Soriano's cost I'd take him over Wagner. The two have put up similar numbers in their careers, but Soriano is only 29 and Wagner is 39. The advantage Wagner would have is that he'd only be on a one-year deal, while Soriano would likely command 2-3 years. Soriano career: 2.83 ERA/1.01 WHIP/337:96 K:BB/312 IP Wagner career: 2.40 ERA/1.00 WHIP/1068:270 K:BB/819 IP
  19. dew1679666265
    Or the changes just aren't working.
  20. dew1679666265
    That's why he through his bat into the rack in the dugout. I know his slumps are very, very annoying and he makes a lot of money, but to imply that he doesn't try is a little ridiculous. I definitely think he tries at the plate, but doesn't look like he tries to change anything with his approach or with his swing I think I remember Von Joshua working with him on his swing when Joshua was promoted to hitting coach this year.
  21. dew1679666265
    RISP: .222/.339/.411/.751 Soriano has driven in 14 runners in 22 ABs with a runner on third and less than two out.
  22. dew1679666265
    A gapper between Soriano's bat and the ball maybe. Why don't we trade him?! Somebody has to be willing to take him in order to trade him.
  23. dew1679666265
    On base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG). OK....so what would a hitter like D Lee's OPS be? DLee's OBP is .376 and his slugging is .550. So he's got a .927 OPS. You want a good first baseman to be in the .850 to .900 minimum range.
  24. dew1679666265
    On base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG).
  25. dew1679666265
    They're not hitting Gorzo real hard so far, but the hits are still falling in. Furcal's RBI single and Manny's hit in the first may be the only really hard hit balls so far.
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