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That's the problem, the Astros' owner is going to want a Peavy like package for Oswalt. I could see the Stros asking for both Derek Norris and Chris Marrero (who would be Berkman's replacement at 1st) and then 2 pitching prospects. To me, that would be too high of a price. If the Nationals want to acquire Oswalt, wait till the offseason. And if they ask for too much then the Nats shouldn't go for the trade. But as I said, if they have a chance to acquire him at a reasonable price then they ought to jump at the chance.

I'd prefer they keep Gorzo at this point. If he can continue at the pace he's shown the past couple of years, he can be a high quality starter long term for us. That said, I kind of hope they move Silva to the pen. He's pitching well, but Rob (I think) showed some stats where he's getting a bit lucky to this point. Moving to the pen might help him keep this strong pitching going.

They shouldn't overpay, but if they can get Oswalt in a reasonable deal, they ought to jump on it. If 2011 is the target year, Oswalt is under contract for that season – plus a club option in 2012 – and would make a nice anchor to their rotation – along with Strasburg, assumedly.

I don't see any way that a 35 year old third baseman who just posted a high .700s/low .800s OPS and has an injury history would get a 3-4 year deal worth more than $14.6 million (what he's making next year if he doesn't opt out). If he opts out and Hendry re-signs him, I could see a 2-3 year deal to bridge the gap to Vitters, but I can't imagine it'd be more than $10-12 million, if that. Ramirez will only be 32 this offseason. Well crap, that'll teach me to talk without double checking myself. The overall point still stands, though, I think.

If the pitching holds up, they really could make a run given that division. If they add Oswalt and if Strasbug is what everybody thinks he is (or anywhere near the astronomical projections), they might just win that division.

I'd really have to be talked into liking a Cashner for Oswalt deal or a Brett Jackson for Oswalt swap. I don't think I'd want to see either of the Jacksons, Cashner or Vitters traded for him. That said, I'd be interested in him for nearly anybody else (not including Castro since he's in the majors now).

I don't see any way that a 35 year old third baseman who just posted a high .700s/low .800s OPS and has an injury history would get a 3-4 year deal worth more than $14.6 million (what he's making next year if he doesn't opt out). If he opts out and Hendry re-signs him, I could see a 2-3 year deal to bridge the gap to Vitters, but I can't imagine it'd be more than $10-12 million, if that.

Sorry about that. For whatever reason I read your post as June-August instead of October. Not sure why. The reason I don't like averaging numbers is all it tells you is that he hasn't been great in those months at some point. It doesn't tell you any kind of pattern or reason why he's struggled. For instance, if a guy has a .200 OPS in June one year and a .900 OPS the next two years, his average OPS over the three-year period is going to be kind of crappy, even though it's only because of one horrid month. The pattern there is actually that he's improved significantly in that month from one year to the next, but his overall average is screwed because of that .200 OPS month. I thought the pattern we were talking about was what Tim said he was refuting – "The whole Fukudome sucks past April thing needs to die." If the pattern is that he's worse from June on than he is from April to May, then that's accurate. But again, it's because he's been insanely good in April each year (1.052 OPS in 2009, .915 OPS in 2008). In 2009, his second and third best months were June and July. In 2008, however, he got progressively worse each month – but I would attribute much of that to his batting mechanics getting out of whack more than anything else. Considering most of his struggles have been because of mechanical issues and we now have a hitting coach who specializes in fixing mechanical issues, I don't see that there's a likelihood that Kosuke is awful from June on.

I think 85 is about as good as it will get, and that means the bullpen has to stop sucking and Lee and Rammy start hitting. If that actually happened, I could see 90 wins fairly easily. Yeah, assuming no other big dropoffs we'd have a good chance at 90 wins with bullpen improvement and Lee and Aramis hitting well. That said, I think 90 is the very high end for this team. I thought 85-88 wins was the likely result of the year before the season started and I haven't really seen anything to change my mind. I figure we'll need 88-90 to grab the wild card, though, so I hope I'm underestimating my record prediction.

If he doesn't considerably improve his numbers this year, I'd be absolutely stunned to see Aramis opt out. If he finishes the year with a .600-.700 something OPS, he's not getting the same type of money in free agency the Cubs will be paying him. I would trade Kosuke only if I could get full salary relief and something even just semi-decent in return. Kosuke brings value and should be able to maintain the strong defense and high OBP throughout the length of his contract (through next year). I'd let Lee and Lilly go after the year, hope Aramis starts hitting again and opts out and then break the bank on a first baseman (Fielder most likely). That's my way-too-early offseason thoughts, at least.

June 2008 - .789 July 2008 - .688 Aug 2008 - .546 June 2009 - .507 July 2009 - .926 Aug 2009 - .904 Averaging numbers together doesn't provide a pattern. There would be a pattern if his numbers in 2009 were similar to his numbers in 2008. As can be seen, there's really no similarity whatsoever between his July/Aug 2008 numbers and his July/Aug 2009 numbers.

Better than sending Stevens back to Iowa. Hopefully Howry settles into Berg's role as well.

It wasn't so much a comment on Patton's value as it was the idea that we could have just kept the extra arm in the minors while moving Guzman to the 60 day. Not a big deal at all, though, and you may well be right that he could have been about to be released anyway. I didn't realize just how bad he's been this year when I made the post, though.

Yep, they DFAd Patton for Howry. I don't understand DFAing Patton when you could just shift Guzman to the 60-day DL, though.

Yeah. Every other Wednesday is normal for me because I play in a league. The Thursday one was a really fun charity event on an 18 hole, par 3 best ball scramble. Drunk before we stepped onto the first tee box. Nice. I don't golf nearly enough.

It's the Phillies' Jayson Werth. Haha. Whoops. Somebody's not following the Cubs. :wink: 36 holes of golf between Wednesday and Thursday will do that to you. Sounds awesome, actually.

It's the Phillies' Jayson Werth. Haha. Whoops. Somebody's not following the Cubs. :wink:

It's the Phillies' Jayson Werth.

I guess I'll put this here since it seems to be the overall expansion thread.

I thought it was too. I'd much rather give Stevens a major league shot than Howry.

good god, how many times do I have to post this in various places? August 2009: .287/.398/.506/.904 The whole Fukudome sucks past April thing needs to die. He was even better in July. (.307/.392/.534/.926) But, he did get worse by the month in 2008, and was awful in September and October of last year, so which is going to be proven most true of him? I think that someone pointing out that he was awful past April is just as valid as posting that he had a good two month stretch last season. Neither is more or less valid than the other, in my opinion. From all reports, though, Fukudome has struggled because he allowed his mechanics to get screwed up. His super hot July and August last year came after a visit from his Japanese hitting instructor, Kyosuke Sasaki. Jaramillo specializes in knowing a player's hitting mechanics well and should be able to fix any screw ups Kosuke has in his swing. Sasaki also said that his 2008 struggles were due to a screw up in his mechanics as well. That late-season slump he had in 2008 shouldn't re-occur this year.

Nowhere have I said we should be looking to dump Z for nothing. All of my posts have assumed the idea that if we trade Z, we – at a minimum – get relief of his entire salary. The trade proposals I responded to had us saving money and getting a decent piece in return (Vazquez or Quentin). If the only offers we can get for Z is eating a chunk of his contract and getting minimal value in return, I have no interest in trading him at all. If, however, we can deal his entire contract and get something decent in return, then we have to consider it because we can make the team better in both the short and long term by doing so. I don't think that's a foregone conclusion. Hendry has let players he liked go when their contracts were up and it didn't make sense to extend them. If Lee goes on a tear again this year, I could see us offering a decent sized 1-2 year deal, but I don't think he's getting a big contract from the Cubs. I think re-signing Lilly is far more likely than re-signing Lee, to be honest.

Because he didn't suck last year Didn't he actually just get a little lucky with an abnormally low HR/FB rate? He got a little bit lucky with it (5.1%), but it wasn't wildly lower than normal – his career HR/FB rate is 8.5% and 8.3% and 7.0% his first two years with the Cubs. So yeah, he got fairly lucky with that. I don't think there's much unluckiness going on with this year's numbers, though.

That was a terrific play. Maybe I'm too used to Theriot there, but I thought that was a hit all the way.

I was thinking about trading high on Colvin, but I just don't think his value is high enough at this point. I'd hold onto him for the remainder of the year and see if I could get his value a bit higher. Maybe then put him in a package if we look to move a veteran in the offseason.