dew1679666265

The bulk of his production last year was unsustainable, but I don't think he'll continue to be anywhere near as bad as he's been so far this year. The problem with Colvin is figuring out where in the middle he'll fall production-wise. He's always been a difficult player to read (high OBP/low SLG one year in the minors, high SLG/low OBP the next), and I don't think we have enough information to evaluate him to this point. A trip back to AAA might help.

Why? Barney's been a pleasant surprise, but if the Cubs can make an impact move I'd like to think they'd hold back because of Darwin Barney. How about signing Reyes and moving either him or Castro over to 2B? 2012: Sign Reyes for SS, move Castro to 3rd, Darwin at 2nd, Fielder at 1B. Sign me up. I love Castro, but that would be a horribly light-hitting infield.

I can see that. I wouldn't have a problem with him going to AAA, I just don't know how much good it would do. If it's purely a confidence issue it might help, but if it's mechanical or something similar he might do better working with Jaramillo on the side.

I'll preface this post by saying I think Colvin is probably a lot better than he's shown this season. Not as good as the player we saw last year, but better than he's been this year. He's currently got a line of .113/.191/.258. The positive thing is, a .78 IsoD (isolated discipline, the difference between his average and OBP) and a .145 IsoP (isolated power, the difference between his average and slugging) aren't terrible numbers. However, Colvin isn't just hitting into bad luck to this point. His BABIP is .161, and while you'd think that was due to go up, he's simply not hitting line drives right now either (11.1 LD%). His LD% has gone up recently, but only slightly. Before he gets at all productive again, Colvin's going to have to start hitting the ball harder. And as long as the three starting OFs are highly productive, you can't throw an offensive black hole out there. As for sending Colvin down, I just don't know that it would help much. He might get a little more confidence hitting AAA pitching, but his ceiling is probably as a 4th OF and that's his current role.

I'd stay away from starting pitching unless it's an elite guy. If Dempster comes back next year we'd have to either trade Z (and eat a bunch of cash) or not start one of Cashner or Wells. We've got enough other holes to fill to spend money on a luxury item like a good but not great SP. The Indians have an $8.5 mil club option on Sizemore for the 2012 season. If he produces anything like he currently is (.974 OPS), I don't see any way they don't pick it up. If he has more injury issues or if his production falls off a cliff, he might come available. And he'll turn 29 in August, he's been in the majors since he was 21.

Yeah, I can understand the reasoning for passing on Dunn and could even see passing on Fielder, but there's really no reason to not make every effort possible to get Pujols. If he wants 10/300, do it. He'll be well worth the money.

This is also Coleman's next start, so this will line up for perhaps Wells replacing Coleman instead of Davis? Depending on how the junkballer extraordinaire fares tonight? It's very possible it'll be Coleman down instead of Davis. I believe if we send Davis down, he'll have to pass through waivers and might be able to flat out refuse the assignment. We can send Coleman up and down at will, however, and production probably won't be all that different between the two. Coleman really hasn't pitched remotely well enough to justify keeping a rotation spot when Wells comes back. Will Davis? With two unproductive rotation spots, if neither guy filling those spots is pitching well, then the decision really shouldn't be based on whether one guy has earned a spot or not (because neither has). I think Coleman should be the guy to go down either way (unless Davis is flat out horrid), but if Davis pitches well it makes the decision that much more clear.

I think you're vastly overrating Beltran if you think he can be the difference between contending and not contending for this team. If we were talking about acquiring Pujols/Fielder/AGonz/Utley/Cano or somebody like that, I'd agree with you. But we're simply adding to a strength by adding Beltran instead of fixing a weakness. I know Beltran's gotten off to a red hot start, but this isn't Beltran in his prime where he's an elite hitter and a great defender. This is a guy who's played 145 games total the past two seasons and posted a .768 OPS last season while being worth 1 win. He's a guy who could help put us over the top if we've already got a team that's solidly in contention for the playoffs. There's no way I'd favor dealing for Beltran now with as many questions as this team has. If they're contending in July and can get him for a couple C prospects, fine. But now is far too early.

That was more in response to WSRs inference that we're in somewhat of a must-win situation this season. His previous posts led me to believe he sees this team falling off dramatically after this season and this is the year to "make a splash" so to speak and try for the World Series. My response was that I could easily see next year's team being better than this year's and perhaps dramatically (if we get Pujols, for instance). I'm fine with adding Beltran if we're contending in July, but I wouldn't give up prospects for him beforehand. I want to see how some of these question marks are answered before giving up commodities for a pretty big question mark.

I just don't see the urgency to go for it this year. Obviously we want to win the World Series and if we have a legit shot I say take it. However, I think our chances of winning will be better over the next couple of years than they are now (even without Pujols/Prince), so if we don't get a good price on Beltran I don't think the need is there to shell out for him.

This is also Coleman's next start, so this will line up for perhaps Wells replacing Coleman instead of Davis? Depending on how the junkballer extraordinaire fares tonight? It's very possible it'll be Coleman down instead of Davis. I believe if we send Davis down, he'll have to pass through waivers and might be able to flat out refuse the assignment. We can send Coleman up and down at will, however, and production probably won't be all that different between the two.

As hawkeye pointed out, Pena's been getting a lot better lately but he did start out the year poorly. However, even when he is going good he's not going to be a high average guy. If you look primarily only at average, you're never going to like Pena. What he will do, however, is give you a good to very good OBP and (when he's on) a very good slugging. He's very similar to Adam Dunn in that way - low average, high OBP, high SLG, high Ks.

Involving a third team is what I was getting at in a roundabout way. I think the Mets would be more interested in Colvin if they want an ML OF, so Byrd or Kosuke would have to go elsewhere. We're probably getting less for them than we'd give for Beltran, though, so we'd have to factor that in to decide if the trade was worth it. On a side note, I don't think the next few years are as bleak for the Cubs as you seem to. I actually think they'll get better from here. First and third are a couple of big question marks going forward, but if Pujols and Fielder are both on the market, there's no reason why the Cubs shouldn't get one of the two - and they really should be able to get Pujols. You then have guys like Cashner, Castro, BJax and McNutt making the majors/getting better and may even get solid contributions from guys like Barney, Vitters, JJax, Whitenack and the slew of young relievers. If we stick to the apparent plan, we're about to get quite a bit younger over the next couple of years and have a bunch of quality minor leaguers on the way. We need a Pujols/Fielder type, but we have the resources to do it.

I think he'll rebound, I just don't know what he'll rebound to. There's no way he's as bad as he's been this year, but there was a lot of unsustainable production last year. If all the elements are right by around the deadline, I wouldn't dislike some type of Colvin/Coleman for Beltran trade. The Mets get a couple ML-ready, decent prospects while the Cubs don't give up anybody vital to the future. We wouldn't lose any OF depth by swapping Colvin for Beltran and by August we should have Cashner/Wells back and if we need a 6th starter, one of Davis or Ortiz probably wouldn't be much worse than Coleman. In that scenario, I'd keep Byrd and Kosuke and go with a four-OF rotation. You increase the likelihood that Beltran and Soriano stay healthy and you can go back to starting Byrd full-time next season. Ego would be a reason why that scenario wouldn't work, but entering the year it appeared the Byrd/Kosuke/Soriano trio would be sharing time with Colvin, so sharing time with Beltran might even be less of a hit to the ego.

According to UZR/150, Byrd's been a roughly -7 defender this year in center while Beltran's been a -12 defender in right and was a -7 defender in center last year in around 500 innings. My biggest concern with acquiring Beltran and putting him in center is health. As injury prone as he's been recently, he may not stay healthy roaming around center as opposed to right. A lot of Kosuke's value is in his defense in right, so he could move to center in a hypothetical deal but I think he's a slightly negative defender in center while he's a plus defender in right. I was talking more defensively than offensively. Just last season, Byrd was a good to very good defender in center and is more likely to stay healthy while playing center. As I said before, I'm definitely in favor of waiting. However, if we're in contention around July, Beltran's still hitting well and either Byrd is still struggling or Kosuke has cooled off, a trade could be a good idea. The strength of our farm system is its depth, so dealing a couple C prospects isn't going to be that significant.

Trading Byrd is probably the route to get the biggest upgrade, but I really don't think the Mets will want either Byrd or Kosuke. With their financial troubles, adding even a reduced contract may not be an option. My bet is if they want an ML ready OF, it'd be Colvin. Even if they're not enamored by him, he's cheaper with more upside going forward than Byrd or Kosuke. Looking ahead, however, trading Byrd this season means we're guaranteed to see Colvin in RF next season. I don't see any way Kosuke comes back next year and with Byrd gone we'd have to start Colvin and hope BJax is ready to start the year. If we keep Byrd, Quade may decide to go with Jackson and let Colvin remain as the 4th OF. We'd be a better team overall next season in the latter scenario, but worse this year.

One thing you have to keep in mind with acquiring Beltran is that we're losing value in the deal as well. If we add Beltran (1.3 WAR so far this year) we have to bench or trade Kosuke (1.0 WAR so far) or Byrd (0.4 WAR so far). It's still early in the year, but Kosuke has been nearly as valuable as Beltran to this point, primarily because Beltran's been bad defensively and Kosuke's been good. If you deal Kosuke, you have to look at the difference in their production at the time of the trade and determine if the difference in production is worth probably a net negative in prospects. There are questions with both players - can Kosuke avoid his month-long slumps and can Beltran stay healthy - and I think it'd be prudent to wait as long as you can before pulling the trigger on the deals so you get as much information as possible on the two. If you deal Byrd, you have to ask whether Beltran can still play center and stay healthy. He hasn't logged an inning there this year (he's been only a RF) and has been pretty awful defensively in right. Byrd's been bad defensively as well, but he's younger and has much less of an injury history than Beltran and is almost certainly the better bet to rebound. You could always move Kosuke to center if you trade Byrd, but you're losing a ton of Kosuke's value doing that. Beltran's been quite a bit more valuable than Byrd so far, making this the more preferable scenario, but Byrd has recent history on his side. Could dealing for Beltran be a good idea? Sure, but I'd wait until much closer to the deadline before advocating or criticizing it definitively.

If we're talking about doing this trade now or soon, I'd be very much against it. There are simply too many questions on this team to acquire Beltran in the hopes that he continues hitting and stays healthy. However, if we're talking about a potential deadline (or near deadline) trade, it very well could be worth it. If we're in contention enough to be thinking strongly about contending in July, the likelihood is that Aramis has started to show some power, Soto is back and producing and Cashner and Wells are healthy. Basically, if we're in strong contention by around the deadline, some of our questions have been answered positively (or every team in the central is just miserably bad, which I guess is a possibility). If that's the case, I'd be a lot more open to dealing two C prospects from a very deep system for a guy who is still healthy and highly productive (which Beltran would have to be).

More likely that Castillo is trade bait. Depending on what you consider a top starter, I don't think that Soto would land us such a creature. More likely a Jake Westbrook type. I disagree, soto has shown that he really cant stay healthy for a whole season for like three years in a row now. If Castillo tears it up soto could definitely be a trade candidate this year or in the offseason. Unless Geo's out for most of the season, that would be a huge overreaction. Even if Castillo hits extremely well, we're only going to see him for 2-3 weeks or maybe a month tops. That's not enough time to determine that he's a better option than a 28 year old catcher who we know will OPS .830+ with good defense.

It would be more logical to save money and bring up Jay Jackson, someone with a future with this team. Unless there's nobody quite ready right now and they don't want to start the FA clock on a guy with an actual future. Jay's been having some real struggles for a while and probably isn't ready to step in and pitch well yet.

I think they had a pretty decent season until they started giving away their best minor leaguers for DeRosa, Holliday and others. It's in pretty bad shape now I think, but I don't know if it's more because of Jocketty, Mozeliak or both.

Didn't he hire Dusty? If so, that alone makes me pass. Dusty was already there when Jocketty took over. Dusty was hired Oct. 13, 2007 while Jocketty took a job as the Reds' special advisor on Jan. 11, 2008 and then took over as GM on April 23, 2008. He did give Dusty a two-year contract extension in 2010, though.

I probably shouldn't have used the term "very." That wasn't exactly the point of my post, though. I was using that as an example of what this franchise could be if we don't sign or develop a superstar type player in the near future. Our upside would be the best teams of the 2000s (whether you want to call them very good, good or average is irrelevant) and they'd be susceptible to fluctuations like we saw in that decade. The primary point of the post was to say that it's very nice to see the good, young talent we have on the brink of the majors, but we need a superstar or two somewhere in there to really make the team great and surpass the good teams of the 2000s. Making the majors, even for a first round pick, is meaningful insomuch that it eliminates you from being a "terrible" pick. I'd like to see much better than a 4th OF - even one who can make the majors fairly quickly - out of the 13th pick in the draft, but that doesn't mean Colvin was a terrible pick. As for Cashner, he dominated the minors and is currently a starter in the majors. I've already made the point in this thread that there are definite questions about Cashner - primarily surrounding his durability - but there's no way you can argue that he was a terrible pick. If he never gets more durable or turns out to be injury prone, then he wasn't a particularly good pick. But "terrible" is going too far and that's what I was responding to with that post.

It's a possibility, nothing more. But again, if Pujols hits free agency, we have everything he could be looking for and can offer more money than any other team out there.

I would mind. He's almost certainly not going to be better than any of our current starting outfielders and, if he's even willing to accept a 4th OF role, I'm not convinced he'd be better than Colvin can be. He'd be an upgrade over Reed Johnson, but most of our minor leaguers would and we wouldn't have the potential media circus of bringing Milton back with one of them. I wouldn't really hate signing him because of that chance he regains his past form, but over the past nearly 400 PAs he's posted a sub-.700 OPS (and closer to .650). The chances of regaining his old form are quite slim, I'd think.