Thusly Boned

The circumstances definitely suck, but it's starting to look like a really strong return and with Darvish starting to trend down I don't think we'd get as much value anymore. I didn't anticipate that Yu would have been so affected by the sticky stuff ban. His spin rates are way down across the board and he's giving up a bunch of HRs. I would love to say that the FO knew the ban was coming and that they deftly traded Yu before he was impacted, but I really can't place any other reason for the Yu trade other than the Ricketts cutting off the funds. Given his recent performance history (at the time), I thought it was a sensible high sell, though I love Darvish, hated the implication for 2021, and wasn't enthused by the return. I've come around on the return, but still would have preferred more MLB ready players.

None of these guys are going to get what they want, imo. The market paradigm has definitely shifted from paying for past performance to paying for future performance. Bryant isn't going to get paid for 2015-17, and Baez isn't going to get paid for his 2018/19, either. The risk that an up and coming star isn't going to continue to develop is probably less off putting than the virtual guarantee of post prime regression. In that way players of Baez/Rizzo/Bryant's vintage are in a bad place, with one foot in the perform and then cash in in FA era, and another in the get paid early era. None of them are going to get their big payday. I think it's entirely likely we don't see many signings outside of the Lindor/Tatis style early career megadeals until the CBA is settled, which is almost certainly going to be an acrimonious affair.

I think the odds are very, very good. I imagine it'll be one of the concessions to the players in the CBA.

It was the offense for sure. So maddeningly inconsistent, and for years. I think that inaction when it started to become clear the core wasn't becoming what we thought it would is the disappointment. I think by 2019 it had become apparent that the offensive core just wasn't going to get it done, due to regression and inconsistency, I think if we're being honest, we can say we saw that offensively things weren't going to go as we hoped. It was the latter part of 2018 in particular that made me seriously start questioning, at least quietly. What could have been done? Deal one or two of them to mix it up a bit (and replenish the farm a bit after it had been depleted by trades). For example, I think dealing Schwarber and signing re-signing Castellanos after 2019 would have been a good move (though admittedly at the time I was still seduced a bit by Kyle's power potential). I also think that 2018/19 was probably the point where you really want to choose the players you want to extend, and make a strong play.

I don't expect the team to be competitive next year, but this pretty clearly isn't a 2011 situation, either. I think the team is at least decent again by 2023. Much depends on the approach this offseason, obviously, but I think the Kimbrel trade (whether you agree with the choice of players in the return or not) is a clear indicator that this isn't intended to be a total rebuild. You don't use your most valuable trade chip for current MLB talent if that is the case. You also don't hang onto Hendricks in burn it to the ground mode. As many others have said, the problem isn't that the core was broken up, but that it was broken up too late (much of that is on Theo). It sure would have been nice to see at least one of these guys extended, but the notion that all of them were going to ride into the sunset as Cubs was romantic, unrealistic, and would have been poor management. Given where the team was, what transpired was, though unpleasant in the extreme, absolutely the right thing. The mistakes that led to this distasteful place were made before this year. Not even the biggest of the big market teams hold on to their entire cores forever. What should have happened is that a couple members of the core should have been dealt while they still had years of control, for a larger return. I personally would have traded Bryant (based on my personal belief that he was destined to leave regardless, likely for a West coast team) after 2018, traded Schwarber after 2019 (and re-signed Castellanos). But water under thr bridge now. I genuinely don't know how this offseason will go. I see a few possibilities: 1. The front office largely sits and sees how the existing talent develops in 2022, maybe dealing off Hendricks and Contreras. I see this as the least likely possibility. 2. The front office trades off some of the newly acquired talent for more MLB/MLB ready players in a quantity for quality play, but is quiet in FA. 3. The front office spends on some of the younger FA talent (Correa/Story/Seager) and a FA pitcher or two (Gray/Stroman/Bundy/etc.). Maybe Castellanos opts out and we bring him back. 4. A combination of 2 and 3. I can see a few realistic permutations where the team next year isn't bad, and pretty good in 2023.

Meph probably completed his journey into his own ass and achieved singularity

If it is was that simple I'd have quit this horsefeathers in the 90s

My earliest memory of watching an icon leave Chicago was Maddux. Not quite the same thing, but since they basically let him walk it felt the same. Me too. But Maddux was still on the rise and we hadn't won anything. That was worse. At least this group got us one, and it was glorious 7th game OT win after down 3-1 Yeah, Maddux was on the cusp of greatness and we had to witness it with another team. Odds are good that these three all gave us their best years (maybe not Bryant, but probably).

The analytical me is at peace with what happened over the past couple of days, but the emotional me isn't ready to look at these yet.

Yeah, just to get to the relatively modest payroll of this year would leave a crap ton of money available. They'll definitely spend some, but I doubt they'll spend enough. I don't think I'd want the payroll to get jacked back up in one offseason, because that would probably reflect a reckless approach, I definitely think some money will be spent. Maybe acquire and extend a player or two? Who knows. I probably won't be satisfying, but should be interesting.

There's no law saying the Cubs can't trade Nico (or Madrigal) plus something for pitching and sign a good SS in the offseason. Yeah, I feel pretty confident Jed isn't just going to sit on his hands this offseason.

So what is the projected payroll for 2022? Like 40-50MM? I suspect there's a lot of money to spend, even considering the PTR factor.

Some are saying Nico and Madrigal are basically the same hitter, which confuses me a bit, since while Madrigal doesn't project to develop much power, I was under the impression that Nico has a good chance to. Am I crazy?

From the moment he was drafted, it seemed pretty obvious with Boras as his agent that he was going to test free agency. It would have happened regardless of whether Theo got us that extra year. This is true, but the service time BS definitely added a little acrimony to the equation, maybe enough rp preclude any kind of team friendliness that might have help the effort to re-sign him. But I am being totally honest (and maybe not rational), as much as I love KB, how his production caters whenever he gets dinged, which he frequently does, scared the horsefeathers out of me when it came to a prospective long term deal.

KB leaving has had the air of inevitability (for me) for years, Rizzo is nearing the end of the road, but I thought Javy would be the one to stay, and I hate this. Don't hate the trade, but that it got to this point. This is the worst of the three for me.

I'll be curious what the offers were. It sounds like Rizzo wasn't willing to take another discount. While I get it for the players perspective, from the Cubs perspective, he was declining and more nostalgia than a key piece of the next core. You know it is very possible that what Rizzo considered a discount is actually his market value. Let’s see what kind of contract he signs this offseason. I think players are going to have to grapple with the new "not getting paid for past production" reality. The moral here is don't give a discount when signing a contract in your 20s. Cubs could have done right by him and given him a raise via a rework/extension a few years ago, but you can't trust any ownership to do the right thing. Giving him a payday now would just be stupid.

Sentimentality aside, if Rizzo wasn't/isn't going to settle for less than 5+ years, letting him go is easily the right decision. He's not far off being done. This is not meant as a defense of the Ricketts, but being a big market team doesn't excuse spending foolishly. In retrospect, re-working his contract 2-3 years ago to give him a raise and tack on 2-4 more years seems like it would have been appropriate, but that's water under the bridge at this point.

Big oof

The return seems to be pretty good, all things considered. Still sucks, though.

sigh

Out 5-6 months So does this mean the Cubs won the trade? If the Sox don't wise up and perma-DH him, it may actually end up that way. Which would be a damn shame

I pretty clearly remember him hitting a home run at Wrigley a year or two back, when he was with the A's

Only counting players whose playing days I have strong memories of 1. Sosa 2. Baez 3. Dawson 4. Lee 5. Wood 6. Sandberg (as a kid he was easily #1, I was a HUGE fan, but my impression of him hasn't aged well) 7. Rizzo 8. ARam 9. Darvish 10. Soriano Honorable mention: Big Z, Schwarber, Bryant, Marmol, Castro, Grace

Betts, Bellinger, one of Turner or Seager probably, and a bunch of I don't cares that might leave as quickly as they came Come on man. I’m probably one of the most optimistic guys on here when it comes to projecting our team but to say our offense has more potential, please. Betts and Bellinger have been worth 28+ WAR the last two years. Muncy has been 5.2 and 4.8 last two years, Turner has been 5+ 2 of last 4, 4+ 3 of last 4, even a “bad” Seager was at 3+ last year and at 6+ the last two fully healthy years, with Pollock, Taylor, Hernandez, Smith, Lux etc. as complementary pieces. Sure our offense could be similar if things break favorably (and probably is still a top 3-5 NL offense and top 7-10 MLB) but talking potential and more likely outcomes it’s easily the Dodgers. I mean if KB, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, and Schwarber all have the best years of their careers simultaneously, then yeah, I'd probably like our offense better. But of course, the thing is that it isn't going to happen.