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TheDude

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Everything posted by TheDude

  1. TheDude
    I really hope he's not the Cubs starting CF. The Cubs can't afford anymore potential black hole spots in the lineup. I know this won't make you happy, but I thought for certain one of the quotes from Hendry in the last few weeks was that he wanted a terrific defensive CF with lots of range, and that he wasn't as concerned about the offense. I believe Oneri Fleita (sp?), the player development director, said the same thing when discussing Pie as an option for CF coming out of ST. I got the feeling that directive came down to him when I read his quotes in a Cubs.com article. It sounds to me like Hendry is working toward building a classic old-school team formula in the field: concentrated defense up the middle with suspect offense, but big time offense from most of the corners. Right now, only Murton, Barret, and DeRosa don't fit that thinking (but bench options Blanco and Theriot do). And Murton is a young player worth waiting on.
  2. TheDude
    So do I and all the options are bad except finding a CFer or keeping JJ. Keeping Jones and playing him in CF is not a bad option. It's a mediocre option, but not bad.
  3. TheDude
    There are going to be a LOT of question marks with this team if this is really what they plan to open the season with. What team out there doesn't have question marks?
  4. TheDude
    Why exactly is Hendry so enamored with him? That's what I don't understand. Izturis is just another in a long line of slick fielding/no hit SS's who come and go in this league, and are soon forgotten. Hendry likes him because he likes that long line of slick field SS. He has acquired about 30% of those that have been in baseball at one point or another during his regime. His love for Izturis is because of his defensive reputation and the fact that he doesn't strike out. Hendry values the ability to make outs when putting the ball in play. Over 162 games, Izturis will probably strike out less than 75 times. That's not Juan Pierre, or even Ichiro, but it's low. It's lower than guys like Royce Clayton. Hendry is also the type of guy that will judge a player on what he has done at his peak, and just assume that's what he'll do as a Cub. And at his peak Izturis hit a lot of singles and had an acceptable average. Izturis is only 26 years old. Is it really that bad to assume he can reach prior peaks, and possibly surpass them? (note: asking this question doesn't make me an Izturis lover or Hendry defender...in fact you could simply replace Izturis with any other 26 year old hitter and apply the same question)
  5. TheDude
    Marmol instead. The Nats want pitching Marshall or Marmol instead I don't remeber which source said/wrote it, but the Cubs had already said no to Marmol for Church I recall (wasn't straight-up deal). The Cubs would rather part with Marshall, but the Nationals wanted Marmol and more. That was the gist of it.
  6. TheDude
    4 million more, what an agent! As has been stated ad-nauseum by many, Boras had little room to work with in this negotiation assuming Matsuzaka was never really willing to go back to Japan. The only way Boras was going to get more for his client, is if the threat to walk away was real, and in this unique circumstance, I don't believe it was. Boras wanted us to believe respecting Matsuzaka was about more dollars, but that just isn't the way the Japanese culture measures respect.
  7. TheDude
    I don't. I really don't think he's that crafty. What's crafty about that? That wouldn't accomplish anything.
  8. TheDude
    Thread title change? If this isn't a done deal, it's close. Some sources are claiming a done deal, like SI.
  9. TheDude
    So did Hendry say anything else, or was his appearance limited to one phrase about CF?
  10. TheDude
    Maybe Matsuzaka finally stopped being a passenger on his own ride and told Boras he wants to play now.
  11. TheDude
    That's a pretty big gap considering Matsuzaka needs to be signed today so the Red Sox can get him back to Boston to get a physical before tommorow's deadline. I was on the Red Sox side before, but if that's their offer, then they are definitely lowballing Matsuzaka. 6 years and $66 million sounds about right for Matsuzaka. I don't think that's a big gap considering yesterday Boras was firm on 100+ million.
  12. TheDude
    Boras was on Cold Pizza (you can watch the clip on ESPN) and I had to shut the video down before he even finished. His opening statement was complete hypocracy - in the same breath he said he has not received a "second offer" from the Red Sox, but he has been having meetings with them all day today... :?: What the hell are they talking about then, the weather? Further, he said he doesn't understand why the Red Sox owner Henry stated they have to take the fight to Boras (meaning the negotiation), saying he has been in communication with Epstein daily. So he acknowledges talks everyday, but denies a new offer has been made, and denies he isn't negotiating, even though the talks are still halted at the original Red Sox offer from weeks ago. Listening to that man makes my skin crawl.
  13. TheDude
    i would never in a million years count of wade miller and mark prior combining for 35 starts. i wouldnt count on anything more than 1 single start for the entire seaon out of both of them combined. i have said this countless times, but for us to pencil in prior/wade for anything is insane...let alone 35 starts. in my opinion, i wouldnt even act like either exist and we should plan on neither being on the roster and IF we get anything out of either of them its a bonus. i also would include wood into that category and just plan on him riding the pine for the entire 2007 season. You assume health with a contingency plan. In previous years, there was no solid plan for replacement. This year there is such a plan, though it's debatable whether it's solid. But you cannot assume injury. You must assume the pitchers will compete for a rotation spot in ST, because if they are healthy, they will win the spot no question. If they are no healthy, the team has about 10 starters ready to go, lol.
  14. TheDude
    I completely agree. Boras is an idiot for thinking a non-FA who has never pitched in the MLB should get $15 million. $8 million is more than fair considering the circumstances. I agree here. Blaming Boton is nonsensical. Boras is a fool for trying to get Oswalt money for a pitcher that has never thrown a pitch in MLB. I hate Boras so much.
  15. TheDude
    Because 50 pages is too much to filter through - was the final contract details ever revealed?
  16. TheDude
    Where are you going to get a number 2? I'm not in favor of signing Marquis, but a front-line starter is pretty much out of the question. Why not Zito? The money the Cubs would throw at Zito should be reserved for Zambrano, who is going to cost a small mint to keep around.
  17. TheDude
    After reading the Chicago beat writers' articles today and seeing Piniella's comments to the effect that FA was more likely than a trade, it seems like the Cubs are determined to get the last pitcher for the rotation from FA. This convinces me that Marquis is probably the guy. Here's hoping he doesn't get more than 2 years. Perhaps the thought is that young talent is harder to come by than money.
  18. TheDude
    Where are you going to get a number 2? I'm not in favor of signing Marquis, but a front-line starter is pretty much out of the question.
  19. TheDude
    The numbers say these are upgrades before applying variables. There are a lot of casual observations that can be made. For example, with Lilly, while the observation can be made that he doesn't fit in Wrigley with his pitching style, the observation can also be made that he won't pitch 30% of his games against the Yankees and Red Sox, as has been done for 3 years running. Talk about stacked numbers. With a guy like Lilly, those variables probably cancel out or come close (PECOTA puts a lot of value on Lilly's move to the NL though). So when I made the observation that Lilly is better than Maddux + AAA pitcher, I used straight numbers. That's how I approached it. Straight numbers, variables aside.
  20. TheDude
    That has to be the most positive sounding post I have ever seen from you about the Cubs! :lol:
  21. TheDude
    It's not a question of better but how much better. In order to be meaningful the 2007 team will have to be 25 games better. The bolded parts could probably be = instead of > No, I don't think they can, unless you are assuming worst case scenario only when projecting 2007. The raw number for 2006 or 3-year splits (when possible - we are dealing with a lot of rookies in there) show definitive improvement.
  22. TheDude
    I can't recall which threads I've read it in, as they grow so large this time of year it's not worth tracking down. Even if someone thinks the team is improved, but .500 or sub-.500, I'd like to hear why.
  23. TheDude
    so why do people crap their pants over Bynum/Neifi/Blanco/Pagan? Well, Ward brings at least a threat for productivity, those others are practically guaranteed outs with no side benefits. Exactly, so if we're going to freak out over those guys, we should applaud Hendry for getting somebody worthwhile for a cheaper price than at least two of those players. As we all know, the alternatives could clearly be worse. And chances are, with pinch hitting, spot starts and injury replacements, Ward will probably get at least 150 PAs, which makes his contribution non-negligible. The freak out has usually not been because one of those players is on the bench (there is a solid argument for having one versatile defensive player on the bench) - the freak out has come from having an entire bench full of those type of players. It compounds.
  24. TheDude
    I've read in numerous threads from a variety of people, enough to suggest there is a standing position out there, that the 2007 team as of today is about the same as the 2006 team. I'm looking for opinions on either side of that evaluation. I'm of the opinion that, regardless of metric (VORP, Win Shares, PECOTA, etc) and how the analysis is done, the 2007 team has marginal improvements across the board, with 2 impact improvements. 2007 Lilly at 32 starts > 2006 Maddux + Mateo at 32 starts 2007 Miller/Prior at 35 starts > 2006 Marshall + Marmol at 35 starts 2007 Guzman/Marmol/Marshall at spot starts > 2006 Guzman/Marshall/Marmol at emergency/rookie starts 2007 Murton/Jones/Soriano OF > 2006 Murton/Pierre/Jones OF 2007 Lee 1B > 2006 Lee + Nevin + Walker + Mabry 1B 2007 DeRosa 2B > 2006 Perez + Cedeno + Walker + Hairston 2B 2007 Izturis SS > 2006 Cedeno + Perez SS The two impact improvements are Soriano and a fully healthy Lee. Naturally the team has room for improvements still. And there are gambles (Hill in the rotation is the biggest). But this current team features better production, far more stability, and better splits management and player versatility. Is there anyone that trully feels the 2007 team isn't a better team? Can this position be supported by any evaluation?
  25. TheDude
    You're wrong about Soto equalling Blanco. Sure offensively, but Blanco is the best back-up caller in the game by most folks evaluations. Soto doesn't bring that experience and game-calling. Ward is a solid bench player signing. You are evaluating it as a starter, which is not the proper perspective. The signings that I would say are accurately questionable are Lilly, DeRosa, and Soriano. But with Soriano it was a matter of being forced to pay the price for the impact player - something the Cubs never do. Regardless of whether or not the contract will suck in 2011, his signing represents a change in front-office mentality, and that makes it a positive signing for now. The Cubs probably could have done better than DeRosa or Lilly, but not dramatically better. There are marginally better choices out there, so these don't really qualify as bad or good signings. They do improve the team.
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