TheDude

comparing Murton to Theriot offensively is laughable. there's a difference in OPS of around 80, and there's little reason to believe that difference will shrink Why is laughable, because you don't like the numbers? Obviously Murton is the better hitter between him and Theriot in a straight comparison of bottom line production, almost solely because of HR power. But that wasn't my point. The reality of what I said is true: When Murton has come to the plate in the bigs, he has marginally outproduced Theriot in extra base hits. The difference in OPS is due to almost exclusively to the HR power Theriot lacks. If you normalize the difference in ABs, and shift about a dozen of Theriot's doubles to HRs, you close that OPS difference dramatically (I believe you can roughly equalize to under .10 difference by shifting 18 doubles to HR). Consider these numbers on % of hits that are extra base hits (MLB career): Theriot 28.1% DeRosa 29.8% Murton 28.7% Soriano 43.1% Lee 41.6% Ramirez 40% Juan Pierre 17.6% (for bottom end comparison) My point was this: so far Murton has shown he is primarily a singles hitter. Even his .900+ OPS AA and AAA years reflect this (30.7%), demonstrating that the difference between his 840 MLB ABs and his selective best minor league years (just shy of 500 ABs) OPS is increased AVG without respect to increase power ratio. He simply had more hits in those with the same extra bases distribution. If Murton wants stick as an everyday guy in the bigs, he has to start turning some of those singles into doubles, because right now he is just as much a singles hitter as Theriot or DeRosa. Theriot can get away with it at SS. DeRosa can get away with it at 2B. But that doesn't work for a corner OF that doesn't bring plus defense or speed or arm. Murton is in danger of only fitting onto a losing roster with a lot of holes or rebuilding programs, like Washington or Florida.

Theriot will eventually play himself out of the starting job and into the first non-power pinch-hitter off the bench because his primary skillset seems to consist of hit-and-run or other energy plays that bring the crowd into the game (as opposed to obviously more valuable, tangible raw production). When Theriot dips, Cedeno will get his shot again, and without the regressed influence of Dusty.

What I find surprising is that people here are surprised. From what I can see, nothing has changed with Murton. In 840 career MLB ABs, he has all of 71 extra base hits out of 247 hits. His percentage of extra base hits relative both ABs and total hits is only marginally better than Theriot's 60/214/758. Murton, like Theriot, is a singles hitter. Except he plays outfield, with minimal speed and average defense. Murton brings very little to the table.

I thought the primary reason Marmol was not returned to the rotation was his lack of a third pitch? When you throw in mid-90s and have only two pitches, both easily plus, you're a bullpen pitcher.

The situations are not the same. Theriot is also the hot hand. Now if Theriot had an OBP under .300, you have a valid comparison.

Let's hope that tootie the wind God saves him. Not Tootie the Wind God, but he was saved by an Angel. Thank you, I'll be here all week.

Dude is 7/16 with risp. While it doesn't do anything to predict future performance, it's worth a nice clap in the early going.

To be fair, the count could have been 0-4, as the 3rd and forth pitches looked like strikes.

Jim's main fault in this regard was Dusty, not the player selection. The 2003 and 2004 teams had several veterans with solid OBPs (not great) that underperformed in OBP under Dusty's command because of the philosophy enforced, and the loss of playing time for not hitting. Dusty had too much influence over player decisions in his last two years, and Hendry's worst decisions seemed to all occur during these years. Extremist thinking paints Hendry as a man obsessed with tools and lineup formulas (RH/LH, Speed at 1, etc) and nothing else, but there are numerous personnel decisions throughout his tenure that show more balanced thinking than that, including guys with plate patience and disciplined hitting (highlighted by Lee, Fukudome, Walker, Lofton, Kendall). I'd put him squarely in moderate old school, not on the extreme, with a willingness to flow with his scouting roots (which infers a willingness to embrace aspects of new school numbers).

I don't think Hendry is going anywhere anytime soon.

Completely disagree. Without Soriano, Soto is adequate protection for Ramirez. Soriano healthy is adequate protection for Ramirez. Kosuke needs to be hitting 2nd in front of Lee, regardless of Soriano's health.

Nobody is expecting him to start reguarly in LF when Soriano is back and healthy. We're talking about Murton starting while Soriano is out and Lou's tendencies to give up on promising young players when they don't perform right away. I'm sorry if I'm picking on you, but has he really shown a tendency to do this? Maybe Pie is evidence enough, but historically, he's had young guys that were given plenty of chances to succeed in Arod and Griffey. I know Pie is not of their caliber, but as our top position prospect I agree he should be getting more opportunities. That was then, this is now. I don't care what Lou did in the past...I care about what I see him doing while running the Cubs. You're right. Poor Hill, Marmol, Soto, and Theriot never getting chances to play last year or this year because they are young. Damn you Lou! You can make the argument that Lou hasn't given the right young players the chances, but that isn't what you're saying here. As it is you're simply being extremist and allowing your observation to be easily dismissed as reactionary.

It took you only one post to distort the context of each of those situations! You win!

Lee and 1.133 OPS wants a word with you. There is no question that Fukudome, DeRosa, and Soto are all hitting above expectations, but Ramirez is not slouching with his .915 OPS either. It's a bit insane right now. The Cubs have 5 names with over .900 OPS, all in the top 40 OPS for all of MLB (6 names in top 26 for the NL). Most amazing though is the percentage contribution coming from walks, which is a new thing for this team. 81 walks in 18 games, are you kidding me?

It's called the RBI program (Reviving Baker's Image). Unlike the real RBI program, this one is being run by dopes.

To be fair, the GMs in baseball that don't adhere to these beliefs are rare, and even those that practice the exception do so for only a select belief, rather than across the board (such as Towers and his bullpen; Towers is still keen on the other traditional views). It seems a bit rough to paint Hendry as a villain in this respect, given the vast majority of his peers are right there with him.

I approach the solution based on a more narrow view of the problem. ERA has been bad at 4.59, but far more problematic is the durability: starters are only averaging slightly more than 5 innings per start, and throwing too many pitches to get that far (88.6). The staff is not built well in this regard. Hill and Lilly have never been long-inning starters (even when good), and Marquis only on his best days. Dempster should be qualified as unknown but likely a 6 inning at best guy, with his pitch count efficiency as a major question mark. What the Cubs need most right now is guy that can go 7 innings on 100 pitches, giving up 3 runs on average (equates to 3.85 ERA). When healthy, Lieber is probably the closest answer over any of the kids. He has only one season in his career where he had 30+ games started and less than 200 innings. In his injury seasons, he would still project over 200 innings for 30 starts. Combine that with his style, which includes throwing strikes and keeping his pitch count down, and his age shouldn't dramatically affect his ability to pitch his style. He likely falls short of 7 innings on 100 pitches at 3.85 ERA, but he should average 6 and do it better than Marquis. Sadly Marquis isn't the problem, Hill and Lilly are the problems and they aren't going anywhere.

Soriano was not brought to Chicago for his OBP, so the argument is somewhat moot when context is considered. Yes a lead-off hitter is supposed to work counts and get on-base - I'm not arguing a that point. Soriano is not that guy, and never will be. The Cubs knew this, and signed him anyway. That tells you that Soriano's job is not that of a traditional lead-off man. His employer signed him to produce at worst 30/30, at best 40/40 seasons. That is his job. Trying to argue that Soriano is a liability to the team because he isn't doing his job makes no sense, because his job is different than that of a classic lead-off man. His expected ceiling OBP is .350. It should also tell you something that the Cubs are aware of the disconnect, considering the amount of time spent in the offseason trying to get Roberts, who is 100% the classic lead-off man, and considering Piniella's sporadic attempts to move Soriano down to either 2 or 5. It is clear Lou Piniella doesn't consider Soriano in the lead-off role as the ideal, but it's also pretty clear he doesn't think he has a better alternative given his 25 man. More on topic, the Cubs pitching staff reverted to it's classic self over the weekend, walking 13 guys in 18 innings. Fingers-crossed it was just a bump.

I've watched every game so far but one, and my personal observation is that Ramirez isn't biting as often on pitches on the outer half of the plate. I agree his patience is largely predetermined rather than based in pitch recognition. If the count doesn't have two strikes, he has been taking pitches that are not in his wheel-house, which is middle-in, or lower-in. That's an indication of predetermined, narrow zone in a non-two-strike count. However, with two strikes, he has been swinging at anything that might be a strike.

Well he is carrying a .083/.333/.208 line with an OPS of .541 so far. Dusty has no patience for someone hitting under .100, and he has no issue with using a less than 10 game sample size (as we all know well). Anyway, back to the Cubs, I really hope the patience Ramirez has exhibited continues, because as much as people have debated the placement of Fukudome in the 5-spot, having Lee-Ramirez-Fukudome at 3-4-5 as the walks leaders on this club will be an exciting development for a Cubs franchise that has been laking such patience. Obviously 1-2 is going to continue to spark debate for several more years given Soriano's contract. But Fukudome appears to have immediate impact so far, and I hope that patience catches on with the younger guys.

He has a veteran team that he didn't help assemble. Dusty's deteriorating impact won't be felt until next year, or the year after. He can't change the approach of veterans like Dunn, Griffey, or Hatteberg (I haven't looked it up but surely these three are near the top for the team). His impact is on the youth.

I've been around NSBB for several years and anyone who knows me knows I hate a lack of walks by a hitting squad, and further hate walks by the pitching staff. Both have been major points of contention with Cubs teams for the last 5 years at least. While it probably means nothing overall, it is nice to see the early trends: Cubs pitching staff has the fewest walks issued in the NL. 22 walks in 82 innings. The team K/BB ratio is 2.68, behind only the Reds in the NL. Cubs hitters have taken 37 walks in 8 games, behind only the Reds and Cards in the NL. Clearly the team isn't going to keep this trend all season, with this 25-man roster. But it is very refreshing to see these numbers attached to a Cubs team even for an 8-game stretch.

His stuff has never been the issue; Dempster has always had nasty movement on all his pitches. It's always been about control and command... and color me skeptical that Dempster has finally learned to put his pitches where he wants. You're point is important to the discussion. Demspter needs to be tested against a patient team, and that hasn't happened yet. He had stuff equally as nasty in his former starter's role life as well. Guys like Dempster and Marmol, with stuff that sharp, can go stretches earning the oft-abused "unhittable" tag. They can also walk 4 guys in an inning on an off-day. Dempster in the rotation is going to yield decisions. He isn't Marquis, meaning a guy whose ERA accurately defines an average number of runs per performance. Dempster is the sort that gives up 1 or 8.

Yeah, I don't think so. I can't even stretch to find the starting point of this argument.

Are you really going to blame Lilly though? He's partially unlucky. Not his fault the defense takes a crap in his hat.