Jason Ross

Another thing to point out: Alex Bregman's 3.5 fWAR (in 114 games) would have been the second best fWAR season of Kyle Schwarber's career, and tied for third for Pete Alonso. Bregman's 4.2 fWAR the year prior would have been better than anything Pete Alonso has ever put up. Kyle Schwarber did have a really great 2026 but it feels like a realistic possibility that it's a clear-and-away "career year" type of a season, where as Bregman is a very consistent mid-4's. Alex Bregman is a really good baseball player and very well rounded. He won't hit as many home runs as those guys, but he's a damn good player and the Cubs got much better last night.

Absolutely. It feels like Bregman is Hoyer's "Jon Lester" in a lot of ways. I don't think they're exactly 1:1. but Lester was brought in around the same age/length-in-commitment not only to be an important player, but that Theo (as an aside, typing "Epstein" only here feels weird now-a-days and I didn't realize that until I tried it initially) saw him as the "culture component" to his roster.

I do not think that will change. I think the roster, as of today, is essentially done. They will probably do their "bring in a few random relievers on MiLB deals" thing between now and camp, but I also think "what you see is what you get". On the bench, I think they will be fine being that RHH heavy. Their lineup has a lot of left handed hitters that will likely sit against LHP - PCA, Busch, Ballesteros are all likely to see far less playing time against lefties. On those days, the Cubs will likely have a lot of left handed hitters on the bench. So I think it's a feature, not a bug.

Combination of: 1. Internally they view him as someone who should age well. He's got a strong mix of bat-to-ball skills, glove skills, and isn't someone solely reliant on bat speed. 2. It's clear that the Cubs view him as a culture guy - the Cubs are an organization that clearly cares about the culture. It's why Turner was around, it's why they brought in Craig Counsell, and Bregman seems to be that guy too. 3. A five-year-commitment isn't forever. It's a decently long contract but it fits into a roster churn. Also, when Bregman's deal is up, that's when players like PCA, Shaw, Horton will all be FA.

Alcantara has over 500 PA's in Triple-A. That's not so much he has to promote, but he's also seen plenty of MiLB pitching. Getting him curated PAs and allowing him to be the 4th OF'er, mostly to hit LHP is a pretty soft landing spot in MLB. They'll be fine with him in that role and it'll be good for his development.

For better or worse it feels like the Hoyer version of Jon Lester. Or at least what they hope is that.

He's very consistent, has tons of contact and playas great defense. It wouldn't be shocking for our models to undersell this type. I can't say it's perfect, but for an organization we have consistently said doesn't give a horsefeathers about winning, this move puts the Cubs above the LT, jumps the hitter market and shows the care to some degree. That should tell us something about how the see him internally.

I know there are going to be many skeptical. But here's the thing: the team who we call claim doesn't give a horsefeathers just gave a horsefeathers enough to go over the LT for a player. That tells us something in the models we have doesn't match up with the models the Cubs have.

Woah!

Addison Russell can get horsefeathered.

I understand that, but I think it's important to remember that a lower amount of years will drastically increase the AAV. That's the incentive to sign one of those. And we know the Cubs run on a more limited budget. I would expect Bichette on 4 years to cost more AAV than Bregman on 6. Should they do it? Sure! Will they?

We have some rough idea that the Red Sox are around 6/$170m but there could be things in there that make it less valuable. There could be deferred money. That kind of contract is around the upper end of what Bregman will cost and I'm not sure what the wait on it would be. Maybe he's just trying to get a little more. Beyond that, I do not believe Bichette is signing 6/$170m - it would drop him as a FA at age 34. He's either looking to go beyond that into his later 30's or earlier than that. 34 is in a bad no-man's land for an infielder.

I found the "cares about winning" portion about that tweet interesting. Heyman has always been close to Boras and that reads like a shot across the bow a bit from Scott. I'm with Bertz and think that Bregman will be the first of the four to sign and it feels like it's not far off.

I don't disagree that the Cubs are cheap, but you're making assumptions here that aren't supported by anything but conjecture. In terms of upside, Edward Cabrera has just as much upside as Dylan Cease, Tatsuya Imai or any of the free agent pitchers. He's also much younger than the proven arms and at the same age as Imai, who has his own question marks. And the fact remains, the Cubs can't keep every prospect on the planet - not every prospect-for-player trade is "because a team is cheap". Flipping prospects you don't love internally, or don't plan on using for something you will use is certainly a possibility. 27-year-old types with the upside Cabrera has are not available via FA very often.

Right. But teams are willing to trade injury chance for development; that's the opposite. Quantity can be found far more easily than quality. There are more Javier Assad types than there are Edward Cabrera types. It is great to be available. But what you do when you're available matters as well

I don't think every organization in baseball would agree with you.

I assume this isn't much of a sticking point; money talks.

He was banged up at times, but would expect he won't be used as often here. I don't think he'll be used very often against RHP. And he really only has to make it through a one year contract. He had 445 PA's in 2024. So it's very doable.

Top-5 1b in baseball offensively.

I don't think that's necessarily the plan. Austin can handle some corner OF in theory, and DH, and 1b. I think it'll be a fluid situation. Busch will probably sit against some lefties, but I don't think it's as simple as "Busch and Austin". I suspect the Cubs will use data and determine the best lineup daily.

He absolutely murdered LHP in Japan. He was one of their absolute best hitters for the last half decade. Should we expect the 170 wRC+ to carry over exactly? Probably not. But he's made a lot of changes to his swing and approach and I think him being a good hitter against LHP seems very possible. I think he'll be much closer to what we hoped Justin Turner was last year - someone who will give you a strong at bat against LHP while tacking on 10 or so home runs.

There were reports he'd play 2b. I have a feeling, though, that money talks.

Per Cerami: According to one source, Cubs do have legitimate interest in bringing back Bellinger.

They did. 18 year old in AZ complex league. Big power. Big whiff. 1b only.

Image courtesy of © Jim Rassol-Imagn Images On Wednesday afternoon, the Cubs finally addressed their starting rotation, completing a trade with the Maimi Marlins for right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera. The Marlins and the Cubs have long been apparent bedfellows, with Chicago almost dealing for Jesús Luzardo last year and Cabrera last summer, and they finally consummated a deal. There will be plenty of discourse on the price, and losing Owen Caissie could come back and hurt the Cubs at some point, but what the Cubs are actually getting in Cabrera is just as important. Cabrera, 27, is a 6-foot-5 right-handed pitcher who signed with the Marlins as an international free agent way in 2015. He gained significant prospect hype, making the Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline Top 100 lists for three straight seasons from 2020-22. However, it took a while for him to stick in the Marlins rotation, due to a combination of control issues and injuries. That changed in 2025, when Cabrera and Marlins pitching coach Daniel Moskos (hired away from the Cubs in Nov. 2024) made a significant change in arm slot, which seemingly unlocked Cabrera's potential. By shifting his arm slot lower, Cabrera created a significant change in his movement profile, giving him significantly more horizontal movement than he had before—and tons of vertical movement on his curveball.. Here's Cabrera's new-look curveball in a game against the Milwaukee Brewers in July. On a 2-2 count, and after a (barely) too-low changeup, Cabrera used his hammer to get the punchout. The added depth and how the pitch plays off his changeup earned a chase on this pitch. FanGraphs's Stuff+ agrees the pitch has gotten better, shape-wise. While it was always strong, sitting at a career 109 on their scale, it jumped to a 119 last year. ZU44b25fWGw0TUFRPT1fVlFOVkJsTlZVbFFBQ1ZOUVVRQUhWQTVXQUZrQUJ3Y0FVVkFOQ1ZVQ0FGWlRWbGRX.mp4 While Cabrera's best pitch now is his curveball, his arm slot change also improved his changeup, taking the shape of that pitch from below-average to plus. Changeups are great for right-handed-pitchers to attack left-handed hitters, and it's always been a staple for him. Here, Cabrera used his changeup with strong arm-side run to strikeout the dangerous Lamonte Wade Jr. WEQyTTJfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUFSVUFGSU1Wd1FBWGxKV1ZRQUhBVklEQUFCVUFRSUFWbGNCVVFNQVVnY0dDRllF.mp4 The Marlins and Cabrera were effectively able to change his pitch mix last season to utilize his arm slot optimally, moving away from his 98-mph fastball and highlighting a sinker-slider combination that would better attack righties. The fireballer can now more effectively attack both sides of the plate, which sows doubt and creates deception. None of this matters if there isn't proof of real applicability attached to those adjustments, but there was plenty of that in 2025. Cabrera posted his best ERA (3.53), FIP (3.83) and xFIP (3.62). One thing that could be easy to miss: none of this resulted in a lower strikeout rate. While his per-inning strikeout rate decreased slightly, because his walk rate was so much lower (13.3% career prior, 8.3% last year), he faced fewer hitters per inning and his per-batter faced rate stayed pretty much the same. It was easily his best season. There are still places to improve. The batted-ball data against Cabrera isn't great. He gives up a lot of hard hit balls and isn't great at limiting barrels. With his stuff, one might hope for better chase rates on pitches outside the zone. The Cubs are a team who love cutting action on fastballs, and adding a cutter to Cabrera's arsenal might also continue to help against lefty batters, while allowing him to use his sinker (which he likely throws a little too often to lefties) less often against them. Cabrera is making progress, but is not a finished project. Beyond some cleanup work, there's another red flag in Cabrera's game: injuries. Cabrera has had a fairly lengthy injury record, and last year was no different, as he missed time twice with elbow-related issues. It's tempting to worry that he's on the verge of needing Tommy John surgery, but while any pitcher is seemingly one throw away from exploding, the risk might not be as severe as it seems. Remember, Cabrera significantly dropped his arm slot last year. Typically, that will result in more stress in the elbow versus the shoulder. We shouldn't ignore these, but it could also be that a new motion created some added soreness as the pitcher got used to the changes. Hopefully for his (and the Cubs') sake, this is a transition to a new mechanical signature, rather than something more serious. The Cubs reviewed his medicals before approving this trade, and they appear to believe he's healthier than Luzardo was a year ago. Moving forward, it's fair to be cautiously optimistic about what the Cubs have acquired. The team has clearly prioritized pitchers with lower arm slots, such as Phil Maton, Hoby Milner and Colin Snider this offseason, and Cabrera will fit that mold. He's young and has plenty of upside. There is clear risk here, because he's never fully established himself as a No. 2 in the rotation, but he has the hallmarks of someone capable of breaking out. He also adds much-needed swing-and-miss stuff, and could form a very fun 1-2 punch with Cade Horton atop the Cubs' rotation for the next three years. What do you think of the Edward Cabrera trade? Are you excited? Do you foresee him establishing himself as a top-of-the-rotation arm in Chicago? Sound off in the comments below! View full article