Jason Ross

His fastball dropped from averaging around 99 mph to 97mph back in 2024. He maintained that level of fastball in 2025. Fairbanks may be someone they are interested in, but his 97mph fastball is about where Brad Keller is as a reliever. Devin Williams probably fits the most in terms of "what the Cubs like". He has a shallow arm angle that we have seen the Cubs gravitate towards.

Per Cerami and BN: Cubs are aiming "even higher" than Phil Maton still. Article mentions by name Devin Williams, Brad Keller and Pete Fairbanks, though more speculative than definitive on those names. https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2025/11/22/cubs-free-agent-relievers/

To be fair to Maton, he walked 1.3% more hitters than Keller last year which resulted in...one extra walk. Maton walked 23 hitters and Keller walked 22 (Keller did throw 8 more innings). We didn't really add a bunch of walks.

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs have housed plenty of hyped prospects over the last few years. Players such as Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw have been developed through the system and have become regulars for the major-league team. Rookies such as Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros both made debuts in the last year. Others like Kevin Alcantara and Jonathon Long have, at times, made appearances on Top-100 or honorable mentions lists. However, one prospect who hasn't gotten this type of love is 24-year-old catcher Owen Ayers. That tide is changing after his big performance this fall. Heading into the yearly Arizona Fall League, excitement around Cubs attendees was kind of low. Outside of Cole Mathis, there weren't really any big names the North Siders were sending. Even then, I failed to mention Owen Ayers as one of the four prospects I was going to be paying attention to; boy was I wrong. Not only was Ayers wonderful this fall, he was just named 2025 AFL Breakout Player of the Year. It's great that the catcher had a breakout performance, but figuring out what we should expect moving forward for is the difficult thing. Is Ayers someone who has been criminally slept on? Or is he a flash in the pan? Why you should be excited for Owen Ayers: A 1.130 OPS combined with a 22:10 walk to strikeout ratio over 88 plate appearances in Arizona is a good starting point for why he's worth following next season; that's just an excellent run of baseball. The Cubs' catcher ranked sixth in the league in OPS and hits, while also finishing second in on-base-percentage and first in walks. It was an eye-opening statistical performance, but one that was also supported by batted ball data. He averaged nearly a 95mph average exit velocity while absolutely hammering a few pitches for well over 105+mph. It's one thing to have great numbers, but another thing to really back it up with the underlying data. Ayer's impressive batted ball data was not just isolated to his time in Arizona either, as he finished in the 90th percentile of exit velocity during his 65 games in Myrtle Beach while finishing his time there with a 23.1 K% to go with a walk rate over 11%. Naturally, he was 26% better than league average overall. I don't want to make too much of this, but it should also be noted: Ayers hits from both sides of the plate, which makes him a unique hitter in today's changing landscape of specialization. Will Ayers stick to both sides? You certainly hope so, and it would give him a bit of a leg up; even if he's ultimately much better from one side, he has multiple platoon pathways. The more outcomes a player can have, the better chance he'll find success with one. Defensively, the Cubs' prospect is very young for his position. He switched from splitting time at first base and catching at Marshall to being a full-time catcher only in his senior year. He also showed out quite well in Arizona in this regard, tossing out a few runners with east. Baseball America wrote on October 31st that, "The two throws registered 81.2 and 81.4 mph and reached second base in 1.81 and 1.86 seconds, as measured by Hawk-Eye. Ayers, a 24-year-old Marshall alum, has now thrown out 31% of runners trying to steal against him in the AFL." There's still learning to be done, but the raw skills appear to be there. Why you should remain skeptical of Owen Ayers: First and foremost, Owen Ayers is 24 years old already. That shouldn't immediately eliminate a prospect from hype-train consideration, but should cause us to be a bit more skeptical. For example, while Ayers posted exceptional batted ball data in Myrtle Beach, the average age of a hitter in Single-A this season was just a hair above 21 years old. Ayers was nearly three years older than the average competitor in South Carolina; compared to some of these teenagers, he's a fully grown adult. Baseball America defined "old for his level" as one-and-a-half years above the average, meaning Ayers nearly doubled this metric. The Arizona Fall League, as well, is not known for it's excellent pitching. While top hitting prospects such as the Tigers' Kevin McGonigle and recent draft pick, Charlie Condon of the Rockies represented the offensive talent, teams rarely allow strong pitching prospects to expend extra bullets at this time of the year. So while, once again, Ayers posted excellent batted ball data and numbers, an asterisk reminding us all about his level of competition needs to be added at the end. What should we make of Owen Ayers? I think finding the middle ground between being excited about his performance and skepticism about his age and competition level is the right answer. Being that the bar for what makes a good hitting catcher is so low (a 94 wRC+ was league average this season and this was a year in which saw offensive outbursts from Cal Raleigh, Drake Baldwin and Carson Kelly), even if you're skeptical about his age relative to his competition, he doesn't ever have to be amazing to find a home. He's also still learning the position, so while he's not a defensive maven yet, but there are enough physical tools that make you believe he could get there. Working against him, however, is just how far he's going to need to go in a short-amount of time. In 2026, you'd realistically like to see him finish the year in Tennessee, so that by age 26 he's in Iowa and knocking on MLB's door, but that's also asking a 19th-round pick to move three levels in two years. A tall task indeed. Would I pencil Owen Ayers into my personal top-10 Cubs prospects because of a good 65-game stretch in Myrtle Beach, or a strong 88-plate-appearance showing in the AFL? Nope! I wouldn't have him in my top-15 and I think he would sit outside of my personal top-20 as well (he was not listed, for example, in Prospect Live's top-20). Instead, I'd highlight his name as someone to watch very closely in 2026, because while he might not make my top-20 today, a hot two-month-start in South Bend would strap a rocket to his back and make him highly intriguing. I don't think the lack of making a list is a reason to ignore someone, and heck, Ayers is probably more interesting to follow, than say, Nick Dean, the Cubs' 19th-round selection who Prospect's Live listed 19th on their list. What do you think of Owen Ayers as we head into the 2026 season? Where would he rank in your prospect list? Do you believe in the hype? Let us know in the comments below! View full article

Here are two statcast pages, one is 2025 Brad Keller and the other is 2025 Phil Maton. Now, I think if you know anything about how hard each throws, it wouldn't take hiring a private eye to figure out who's is who's. But the thing I want to point out is how good each is. I think Brad Keller would be big loss. But if you believe Phil Maton is the guy he's mostly turned into for the last 18 months, he's a big addition. They can't add Maton and go "welp, all done!" but he's someone who mitigates a loss of either Keller or Kittredge.

There is no word on Keller outside of that some teams may look to stretch him back out as a SP. In that case I doubt the Cubs can equal an offer.

I'll guess 2/$16m with the possibility of an extra $1m on a buy out with the club option. He comes in $1m under Kittredgeon AAV but gets an extra year and there's the buyout....and he's Kittredge-esque. They have different mixes but they fill similar roles and in a somewhat similar style of "movement, movement and movement". He's younger and if you believe the velo jump sticks arguably better.

Velo jump guy last year. Turned into a monster for it. Guarantee he's s at least a 2 year deal. He was too good to be a one year.

That's some Colorado Rockies level horsefeathers.

We usually see a medium signing sometime around the Thanksgiving mark. So I'd guess someone in the like...Chris Bassit/Lucas Giolito/Dustin May range? Maybe a team jumps the market on Dustin May because of his age relative to others?

I understand, but it it's apart of the context. The Cubs are almost assuredly not going to trade Taillon at the deadline, and that's the point. The injury potential factors into that. Let's really figure out the pathway in which the Cubs would benefit from a Taillon trade at the deadline: 1. The Cubs need to be basically injury free in the rotation allowing them to even consider it. 2. Jaxon Wiggins has to be having a great season in Iowa and you're comfortable throwing a rookie into the playoff race in those two months. 3. One of the 20-teams he can accept a trade to, wants Jameson Taillon - he has a 10 team NTC and without a player option or some sort of sweetener, we can assume most those 10 teams will remain on a no-trade-list. This list must be submitted well before the deadline. This requires Jameson Taillon to be having a good enough season that teams want him, while also not so good of a season the Cubs can't trade him. 4. One of the 20-teams who wants Jameson Taillon is going to offer something to the Cubs more valuable than the pitching depth that Taillon provides While starting pitching is valued at the deadline, are we expecting him to bring back more, than say, Michael Soroka? Soroka brought back a Triple-A OF'er who projects as a fourth-OF'er and a 19 year old lottery ticket. That probably isn't going to be what the Cubs would value over a Taillon in depth for a playoff run. Instead, what they would need is an MLB for an MLB trade and while it's not impossible (as has been brought up, Montgomery for Bader) but this is a very, very rare trade at the deadline. Made more difficult because you would need to find a team short in P's but also flush in whatever the Cubs actually need and willing to move that player. And the Cubs would need that player to help more than Taillon would to really consider it. Impossible? No, but all the less probable when all considered? Yes. This is an incredibly narrow pathway to a trade in July that doesn't involve the Cubs being bad. Beyond that, we have a team who is signaling over and over again this offseason that depth in the rotation and pitching staff matters. You can mitigate most of these issues with a trade in the offseason. More of those 20-teams will be looking for pitching and a pitcher on an expiring contract and the Cubs will be more willing to bring back MiLB depth in the offseason when they can re-spend that $17m aav elsewhere on pitching depth to backfill. How likely is it the Cubs even trade him? Probably not very high! But if the Cubs still want to pair a Cabrera with a Michael King (who is being projected around the 4-year, $20m aav mark and has been connected to the Cubs multiple times over the offseason already and last offseason) which would help the roster cliff next year, trading Taillon makes sense now far more than later.

Teams almost never trade MLB for MLB at the deadline. And while SP prices are up, Taillon isn't a front line starter, and on an expiring deal. You're not looking at a lot of value. You'll get something back, sure, but if he's pitched well enough to get value, chances are the Cubs aren't just...trading him in July if their season is looking like one that ends in the playoffs or beyond. They're not going to replace him with a rookie like Wiggins at that stage, and it's very likely between OD and July that one (if not two or three) of: Shota, Horton, Steele, Boyd or new-guy are already on the shelf (remember, every member of the Cubs rotation outside of Boyd spent time on the IL). At that point the value they'd extra from Taillon in July probably won't be worth the value he can provide the team as depth or on the rotation. Too risky for the type of return you'd expect from a #4 SP on an expiring deal. The Cubs are almost assuredly never going to be in a position to move Taillon in July. It's this off-season and plan for the depth or he's a Cub unless they are terrible. Hoyer loves depth. He won't trade off of it at the deadline if the Cubs are good.

The Cubs have spent all offseason so far with the biggest talking point of "we didn't have enough depth in the pitching staff last year after the deadline" and that they couldn't find adequate prices on pitching to supplement the staff at the the deadline. The Cubs are incredibly unlikely to then, turn around in July and sell pitching. They're far more likely to hoard depth. Taillon has a NTC. At the deadline, the teams on the NTC could very well be the teams who are contending making it even harder to move. It's a pipe dream. The Cubs aren't trading him mid year unless they're bad. Even if they have six starting pitchers, or seven, they'll find a way to keep them, I'm sure. They know an injury or two could sink them. They will either trade Taillon this offseason and adequately supplement their depth then, or he'll be on the Cubs until next offseason unless the Cubs are terrible.

There a plenty of issues why a team in contention won't trade a useful SP. @Outshined_One explained one reason. Another reason why is that injuries may force the Cubs hand to keep him; we know how often pitchers get hurt. You trade him now and ensure you're covered or you don't trade him at all (unless the Cubs are terrible which they shouldn't be). There isn't much of a world where the Cubs are good and they sell Taillon in July. There is a reason contending teams don't trade SP's. The Cubs aren't going to do it.

No one said that. They were wondering how a player with essentially the same wRC+ could have different offensive run value. Squally explained that offensive run value also factors in base running value - despite the two looking like on FanGraphs that they are entirely separate.

He does have a 10-team NTC protection, but I do believe he would be quite moveable.

If you do want a positive; a lot of players took the QO with the fears of a potential cap or limit on spending in the future. Internally, those players are clearly of the mind they can do better the next time than this time. Maybe gives you a feeling on where the players feel the future of the league is going spending wise.

Bo Bichette is a good player, but I think you're overselling what kind of an offensive force he is and will be. He did post a 134 wRC+, but it was also a career high - something he's never gotten to prior (or that close). But career wise, he's a 122 wRC+ hitter, and is projected from STEAMER to be a 120 wRC+ hitter next year. In context, Ian Happ has a 119 wRC+ over his last four seasons. We have seen how people have treated his offense.

It would be nice to add extra thump in the lineup, but it isn't like the Cubs are thumpless. I'll admit, STEAMER isn't my favorite projection system (ZiPS for the win) but the Cubs currently have three players projected at .199 ISO or above (Busch, Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong). Last year, 44 players were above a .199, so having three projected in the same lineup isn't nothing and the Cubs offense isn't as lackluster as some are worried about. Can they just go with an unprotected rookie at DH? No way. But if the Cubs got an Adell/Bohm/Okamoto, or the like the Cubs will likely be fine. fWAR projections have them in the top-5 or 6 right now as a position group, and even if they don't add a lot, their current projection gets them into the top-10 most years. They're coming off of a top-5 run scoring team effort (and losing Tucker will certainly cut into that). If they properly add to the their run prevention while supporting a rookie DH with something better than Justin Turner they're going to be fine in the aggregate. None of this should read "it's okay to entirely ignore the position player group" but it should read "maybe we're a little too worried about the run scoring potential of this team than we should be".

I'd be fine with any and all of those names. Give me a guy who has some big stuff who can step into a top-line role. I've gotten into the weeds on Imai and he's become a bit of "my guy": but at the deadline Cabrera was my guy, so it's probably recency bias.

Bruce Levine, speaking about Tatsuya Imai and the Cubs:

On cue, per Bruce Levine (when speaking of the Cubs and Tatsuya Imai): "I think so. Yeah, I definitely think so. I don’t they’d back away, and I don’t think the Cubs would be afraid to make a huge investment in Imai.” He calls the idea that the Cubs won’t spend money a misconception.

I think a lot of it depends on what you make of Caissie's second half. Over his last 140 PA's Caissie's K% was 20%. His wRC+ was 161. And his batted ball data is elite (diagram below). I don't think Caissie is going to be a 20% K% guy at MLB. But Owen Caissie being Kyle Stowers good feels like it's on the table and he finished with 4 wins. A lot of that will hinge on how much of the improvement was just "I've done this enough" versus "I actually got better". I think those answers will probably beyond anything you and I can speculate about. But if you come down on the side of "Kyle Stowers is a real outcome" than Caissie performing as a 3 fWAR player in 2027 feels very real.