Outshined_One

apparently not as much as arroyo owns the cubs, heh Glendon Rusch is no longer pitching, so the Reds can no longer rely on Arroyo's guaranteed HRs.

So, when will the eternal optimists be trotting out the Astros and Marlins comparisons for teams that sucked hard early in the season, but rallied back? It's now one of my official signs of summer, by the way. It's right up there with the solstice.

Haven't Prior's problems been mostly with his shoulder? Since we're playing expertise cards here, I've had plenty of conversations with my father (a rheumatologist...think bone and joint specialist) about the Cubs' pitching staff since we enjoy chatting about sports. From what I can recall, he said that the shoulder is one of the most difficult areas for a physician to adequately examine, diagnose, and treat. While Tommy John surgery has made life easier for pitchers' elbows, the shoulder remains something of an enigma. Pitchers who have torn labrums and torn rotator cuffs might as well hang up the cleats since it is so hard for them to get back to full strength and be as effective as they once were. In Prior's case, there have never been any disclosed tears (hmmmmm), but he's had plenty of trouble. Heck, he was shut down in 2006 because of shoulder tendonitis and some other weird issues: After dealing with the mess that was Bobby Brownlie's shoulder (*gag*), we saw that he was healthy and able to pitch, but he was nowhere near as effective as he was when he pitched at Rutgers. His velocity was way down, his stuff was nowhere near as sharp, and the only reason why he stuck in the organization for so long (beyond the $$ investment) was because he had reinvented himself as a soft-tossing right handed control pitcher who eventually flamed out. I've followed baseball enough to know that pitchers with shoulder problems terrify teams, even if those guys never had to undergo surgery for those problems. Given how Prior's stuff has degenerated so markedly (especially this year), I'm beginning to see him fall into the Bobby Brownlie mold. And yes, it killed me to type that.

This thread is beginning to make me worried about Zambrano...

One of those games was cut short by the midget second baseman shoulder injury and the other was a rehab start, to boot. Ugh, this thread is making me depressed and angry.

Subtract AVG from OBP and you'll get IsoD. It'll give you a much better picture of a guy's ability to draw a walk while phasing out strikeouts. Basically, the number of times a guy strikes out is not indicative of future success or failure. You'll find plenty of awesome players who strike out a ton (Ryan Howard) and who do not strike out much (Albert Pujols). You'll also find terrible hitters who K a ton and who rarely K. Using IsoD for Pie, you'll get the following numbers... 2003 (Low A): .061 2004 (High A): .063 2005 (AA, shortened season): .045 2006 (AAA): .058 In the majors, an IsoD of .06 is nothing special, but also isn't too bad. Pie can definitely stand to improve on those numbers...but the problem with these kinds of numbers is that it's difficult for players to radically improve on those numbers over the course of their careers. We'll see about Pie in that regard, but at some point, he has to face major league pitching if he is to continue to improve here.

Box Scores Iowa won 4-1 Box Score LF A. Pagan 1/4, SB (1) 2B E. Patterson 0/3, BB, R, 3 K CF F. Pie 1/2, 2 BB, R, RBI, CS (1), Assist (2B) 1B M. Hoffpauir 2/3, BB, R, RBI 3B S. Moore 0/1, 3 BB, K, SB (2) RF B. Coats 0/3, RBI, K SS C. Rojas 0/3, K, HBP, SB (1) SP L. Walrond 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2/1 K/BB, HR, 6-9 GO-FO RP R. Cherry 2 scoreless, 1 H, 2/0 K/BB, 1-3 GO-FO RP C. Rapada .2 perfect, 1/0 K/BB, 1-0 GO-FO RP F. Baez .1 perfect, 1-0 GO-FO Tennessee won 7-5 Box Score CF C. Walker 2/4, BB, R, SB (3) C J. Fox 2/5, R, RBI, 2B (4), K, PB (1) 3B M. Craig 2/5, RBI, 2B (3), K, E (1, throw) 1B B. Dopirak 0/5 PH J. Simokaitis 0/1 SP J. Berg 4.1 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 3/2 K/BB, 2 WP, 6-3 GO-FO RP A. Mendez .2 hitless/scoreless, 2/1 K/BB Daytona won 6-3 Box Score SS M. Matulia 2/5, R, RBI CF T. Colvin 0/4, IBB, R 1B R. Norwood 2/4, R, 2 RBI 2B R. Chirinos 1/3, RBI C J. Muyco 1/3, BB, R, 2B (3) SP T. Blackford 5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2/3 K/BB, 9-5 GO-FO RP M. Avery 1 hitless/scoreless, 1/2 K/BB, 1-1 GO-FO Peoria lost 2-0 Box Score 2B M. Camp 0/4, K CF V. Heredia 0/3, K PH P. Lopez 0/1 3B J. Lansford 1/4, CS (1) 1B R. Canzler 1/3, K, SB (3) LF A. Joseph 1/3, K, Assist (Home) RF Y. Carter 0/3, 2 K C W. Castillo 0/3 DH DJ Lewis 0/3, 3 K SS D. Johnston 0/3, 3 K SP J. Pina 4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3/3 K/BB, WP, 3-5 GO-FO RP M. Carrillo 3 scoreless, 1 H, 0/1 K/BB, 3-6 GO-FO OVERALL: 3-1

Iowa's game was suspended in the 6th for some reason. Anyone got the low-down?

So, who wants to take odds on when the Cubs decide to convert Prior to a 1st baseman?

http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/6945/blofeldandcatzv9.jpg

Felix Heredia? Psh. Washout.

They could always take another safety in the draft. Most people seem to like the idea of Eric Weddle in the 2nd or 3rd.

Box Scores Iowa Suspended in the 6th Box Score Tennessee lost Game 1 of their DH 5-2 Box Score CF C. Walker 0/4, 2 K C C. Robinson 1/2, BB, RBI, K, 2 E (2, throw, catcher interference) LF J. Fox 1/3, 2 K 3B M. Craig 0/2, BB, K 1B B. Dopirak 0/3, K SS J. Simokaitis 0/2, BB, K SP S. Gallagher 5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 4/1 K/BB, HBP, 5-6 GO-FO RP G. Reinhard 2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2/0 K/BB, 2-2 GO-FO Tennessee lost Game 2 of their DH 5-1 Box Score CF C. Walker 2/3 LF J. Fox 1/3, RBI, 2B (3), K 1B M. Craig 1/3, 2B (2), K PH/SS J. Simokaitis 0/2, K SP D. Veal 4 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 3/7 K/BB, WP, Balk, 1-7 GO-FO, Pickoff Daytona lost 4-3 Box Score 2B N. Spears 0/3 C M. Reed 2/4, R, RBI, CS (1) CF T. Colvin 3/4, R, RBI, 2B (2), HR (1), K, SB (3) 1B R. Norwood 0/4, RBI, 2 K SS M. Matulia 1/4, R, 2 K, SB (1) SP J. Samardzija 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2/2 K/BB, HR, HBP, 10-2 GO-FO RP J. Estrada 2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 5/0 K/BB, WP, 0-2 GO-FO RP G. Johnson .2 perfect, 1/0 K/BB, 1-0 GO-FO Peoria lost Game 1 of their DH 4-0 Box Score 2B M. Camp 0/2, BB, SB (2) CF V. Heredia 0/3, 2 K 3B J. Lansford 0/3 1B R. Canzler 0/3, 2 K DH A. Joseph 0/2, 2 K RF Y. Carter 0/2, K LF DJ Lewis 0/2, K SS D. Johnston 0/1, BB, K, E (1, throw) SP A. Alburquerque 3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2/1 K/BB, HR, 3-3 GO-FO RP M. Pawelek 2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2/2 K/BB, WP, 2 HBP, 2-1 GO-FO RP J. Castillo 1 perfect, 3-0 GO-FO Peoria lost Game 2 of their DH 2-1 Box Score 2B M. Camp 0/3, K, E (1, fielding) SS J. Mota 0/2, BB, 2 K 3B J. Lansford 2/2, 2 2B (2) 1B R. Canzler 0/3, 2 K CF A. Joseph 0/3, K RF Y. Carter 2/3, R, 2B (2), SB (1) LF DJ Lewis 0/2, BB, K DH P. Lopez 0/2 C W. Castillo 0/2, K SP W. Muldowney 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 8/2 K/BB, HR, 4-5 GO-FO OVERALL: 0-5 :(

Randy Wells got lit up. Ouch.

Watch how he gets chastised in Boston for breaking up history in the making in the coming days.

Yikes. Pitching for Vero Beach is D-Rays hotshot lefty prospect Jacob McGee. :(

Copy-paste!

I've repeated this time and again whenever people try to do limited analyses of drafted players in terms of success rates based on a certain classification (pitchers, position players, college, HS, etc). They do not work. There are numerous factors which make things so incredibly muddled in terms of determining whether a team made the right decision in drafting a player. I've seen a number of studies done on overall success rates in the draft and whatnot, but you absolutely cannot make universal judgments on players based on something like whether that player was drafted in the Top 10 or if that guy was drafted as a shortstop. Here are a few factors worth noting... -Signability. In 2006, the consensus best player in the draft (Andrew Miller) fell to #6 due to signability concerns, since the top teams were worried about his contract demands. In 2004, Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew suffered the same fate. Because of contract demands, college commitments, and a variety of other factors, guys who would otherwise be taken in the Top 10, first round, first five rounds, or whatever, based on talent instead fall well out of those spots. It's not necessarily that the Cubs have been able to unearth guys like Sean Gallagher, Jeff Samardzija, and Chris Huseby because they were diamonds in the rough. Instead, the Cubs had enough scouting and money to pry those guys away from their commitments. -Injuries. Yes, they are an unfortunate fact of life when it comes to sports, but I maintain that the majority of injuries which occur are not foreseeable. Sometimes, bad things happen to guys which no one could see coming and it could at the least set back their development and at worst end their careers. How fair is it to judge a team based on drafting a certain player in hindsight when, at the time, he had a clean bill of health with no red flags? Cripes, just imagine what the Mets' rotation would look like if Isringhausen, Wilson, and Pulsipher didn't all have arm injuries. I'll refrain from addressing the Cubs' history in this area, but you get the idea. -Arbitrariness/Sample Size. This is part nitpick, part major point. The nitpick is, why limit yourself to the Top 10? What makes 10 so special? How much would it affect the numbers, success rates, and correlations if you increased the sample size to something like Top 15, Top 20, and so on? Based on the signability issues I mentioned above, wouldn't it make some sense to expand the pool to include these potential top picks who fell because of money concerns? Secondly, this is an incredibly difficult thing to accurately measure in terms of sample size. I've seen people pull out the last 15 #6 overall picks in the NFL draft based on the Bears' tradeup rumors and people have been making predictions based on the success numbers at that pick. The problem is, the pick itself does not dictate how good or bad a player will be; it's the scouting department, talent available, and to a certain extent the luck that will determine that matter. To me, that's the bottom line in all of this. I don't particularly care who the Cubs draft, where the guy played ball, how old he is, and so on. What I really care about is whether the Cubs did their homework on the guy and know that he's got the chops to make an impact on the big league club some day. Poor scouting and bad luck lead to more busted draft picks than anything else, you know?

Remember, Lee Elia's tirade came when the team was 5-14. Little early in the season for that kind of behavior, eh?

Box Scores Iowa lost 12-8 Box Score 3B M. Fontenot 2/4, BB, 2 R, 2B (1) 2B E. Patterson 2/4, BB, 2 R, RBI, SB (2) CF F. Pie 1/3, BB, 2 R, 2 RBI 1B M. Hoffpauir 3/5, 3 RBI LF S. Moore 0/3, 2 BB, RBI, 2 K RF B. Coats 1/5 SS C. Rojas 1/4, R, K PH A. Pagan 1/1, R SP R. Wells 3 IP, 9 H, 9 ER, 3/4 K/BB, HR, 3-3 GO-FO Tennessee PPD: Rain Daytona won Game 1 of their DH 5-1 Box Score 2B N. Spears 1/4, K CF T. Colvin 1/4, 2B, SB (2) 1B R. Norwood 1/3, IBB, K 3B R. Chirinos 0/2, BB, K C M. Reed 1/3, RBI SS M. Matulia 1/3, R, 2B (2) SP J. Santo 5 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1/1 K/BB, 6-7 GO-FO RP M. Avery 1 scoreless, 1 H, 1/2 K/BB, 1-1 GO-FO Daytona lost Game 2 of the DH 8-1 Box Score 2B N. Spears 1/3, K CF T. Colvin 0/3, K 1B R. Norwood 1/3, R, K C J. Muyco 1/2, CS (1) SS M. Matulia 0/2, 2 K SP M. Atkins 4.1 IP, 2 H, 6 R, 1 ER, 4/1 K/BB, HR, HBP, 3-6 GO-FO, 2 E (2, throw, fielding) RP B. Petrick 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1/0 K/BB, 0-2 GO-FO Peoria PPD: Rain OVERALL: 1-2

I like Peoria's pitching staff this year. I have no idea how any of them will turn out, but it's nice to know there are a number of promising young arms in the lower levels of the system.

What a bum!

If Hill pitches better than Z, it'll mean the Cubs have one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball.

Would Reinsdorf really vote against whoever Zell sells the Cubs to? While Reinsdorf is the majority owner of the White Sox, he would have to deal with Zell harboring any resentment for interfering with this deal. Plus, I'm unsure about whether Reinsdorf has any kind of a relationship (positive, negative, bff, whatever) with Cuban. Would he really want to have to deal with an angry Cuban at owners' meetings in the NBA?

Here's the thing... If you are basically guaranteed to have a bad outing every fifth time in the rotation, which would you prefer at this point? A relatively young pitcher who has a nice upside, but lacks consistency and experience. He's being paid the minimum for his experience and is fine with being in the bullpen. A veteran pitcher who lost his stuff due to injury and does not seem to be getting it back any time soon. He's being paid $1.5m and has flatout said he would not be in the bullpen. I'm a believer in upside over experience in these kinds of situations. One way or another, you'll have some bad outings every fifth day. However, Guzman at least gets some much-needed experience as a starter and you can determine whether or not he's the real deal. With Miller, you pretty much know what you're going to get. If his stuff isn't making a comeback any time soon, there's not much of a reason to throw him out there every fifth day. Edit: Can someone fix that link so that it doesn't throw the page layout off this badly? Thanks.