Outshined_One

I'm starting to hone in on Carlos Correa, who I think could be a realistic selection for the Cubs in that scenario. He's young, already pretty good at SS (although he may have to move off if he keeps growing), and could be a legitimate power threat if he develops as hoped. Granted, the Cubs already are stocked at SS, but why pass up on one of the highest upside players in the draft because of that?

Is it wrong that Mark Pawelek has scared me off of highly rated prep LHPs? Granted, the pickings have been really slim since then (Madison Bumgarner turned out well and Tyler Matzek seems to be on his way), but I'm just really leery of Fried.

Ellsbury and Kemp are both under 30, so it depends on how you define young.

I think we're missing the important point here. BASEBALL IS BACK!!!! :yahoo:

Cue Lincecum/Oswalt/Bauer comparisons.

Good -Tayler Scott finishes the year as the standout performer from the 2011 draft class, ending up on BA's NWL Top 20 as the ace of Boise's staff. -Jay Jackson is moved to relief full time, where he flourishes and finishes the season in the Cubs' bullpen. Chris Rusin and Nick Struck also impress enough in AAA to get callups. -Robert Whitenack makes a full recovery from Tommy John Surgery and comes back showing flashes of his performances from the start of 2011. Bad -Scott aside, no one from this system stands out at season's end. McNutt muddles his way through AA and does well enough to stay in the Cubs' Top 10, but loses some luster. Maples stays in Arizona all year to work out control problems. Rosario/Peralta/Liria/et al. shuttle back and forth between Peoria and EXST because of struggles. Most of the guys who do well are seen as being low upside types (Wang, Smith, Kirk). -Hayden Simpson starts the season throwing in the low 90s with some bite on his breaking stuff, but his pitching arm pulls a Dravecky in July. -Rhee receives glowing reviews and does well for himself in AA. However, in August, he will pitch the first three innings of a game which ends up delayed for an hour due to rain. Smokies Manager Buddy Bailey decides to throw Rhee out there for another four innings after the delay. Rhee is never the same after that.

Good -Shawon Dunston Jr. cracks the Cubs' Top 10 at the end of the season, drawing some comparisons to Matt Szczur for his speed/defense with a contact-oriented approach at the plate and some power. Keith Law will despise him. -Peoria starts a season on a tear with one of the best offenses in baseball, with great table-setters in Pin Chieh-Chen and Marco Hernandez, followed by Dan Vogelbach, Javier Baez, and Rock Shoulders providing lights-out power. Mid-season promotions slow them down a touch, but they'll be the most fun team to watch on offense throughout the season. -Micah Gibbs gives up switch hitting and turns into a good enough hitter to merit some discussion as a possible defense-oriented starter/quality backup. Bad -Candelario, Penalver, and Jeffrey Baez underwhelm in their stateside debuts. They start the year in extended spring training and finish in Boise, but don't put up particularly noteworthy numbers, despite receiving praise for their talent. -Josh Vitters gets off to a promising start in AAA, but breaks his wrist on yet another HBP in May and winds up spending the rest of the season on the DL. -Dong-Yub Kim is released, resulting in a tragic loss of bad jokes for this board.

trading a major-league ready starter for a guy like szczur would be absurd. the braves would be looking for someone like brett jackson in return, a (nearly) major-league ready offensive prospect. I'm going to have to side with Truffle on this one. Minor isn't quite on the same level as Latos/Pineda/Cahill/Gio, but he still should command a solid return if the Braves decide to trade him. He's young, cheap, talented, and capable of contributing immediately to any team's rotation. It would probably take Brett Jackson plus a solid upside guy in the low minors (maybe Rhee or Torreyes) to get the discussions started, in my opinion.

Reminder:

Days like these are why I love Grant Brisbee.

I'm seriously thinking of changing your avatar to this: http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lvaw6aPjpt1qlimof.gif

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lv4duyseJh1qhafj6.gif

Ah hell, one more. http://29.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lp5tjfZcQC1qii6tmo1_500.gif

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lkp7p29EzL1qchbs2.gif

I'm okay with this.

Alright, so where does Concepcion rank now that the Cubs have signed him?

I like.

Months later, this quote still applies for me.

holy [expletive] christ it's like they are doing this ironically I'm convinced it's a Producers-like scheme. The worse the Marlins fail, the more money Loria will somehow make.

The major league contracts are gone. I was talking about signing a guy to a minor league deal, but including language in there that if a player reaches the 40 man roster by a given date, the player gets a multimillion dollar bonus. There also was supposedly some provision in there about penalties for teams attempting to circumvent the rules, but I haven't been able to find a copy of the new CBA yet.

I think we probably don't really have any right now, depending on how good we define "TOR" to be. I agree. Now, in fairness to the Cubs, most teams lack pitching prospects who have true ace upside with at least some potential of reaching that upside. It is incredibly difficult to identify, acquire, and coach those sorts of pitchers to that point. Health also plays an important factor. This isn't the sort of problem that is easy to remedy. What intrigues me about the crop of guys down in short season ball is that they are relative unknowns. Most of them come with promising scouting reports and/or statistical success. It's possible none of them ever see AAA. However, as craig said, they also could develop in unpredictable ways. These guys could easily surprise us. I also like the fact that there are so many of those guys in our system. In previous years, there usually would be two or three of those kinds of guys at best in the short season leagues. Quantity matters in building a farm system.

Frankly, I'm hoping the Cubs are looking to exploit every single loophole they can find in the new CBA. As you said, the first year will have a lot of trial and error. Why not test the limits? For example, if there's a guy with questions about signability, would it be possible for the Cubs to sign him to a deal for slot that includes escalator clauses (i.e. if he makes the 40 man, he gets a $1m bonus)? What about opt-out clauses? Renegotiation clauses?

Honestly, I have no insider information whatsoever on those guys and I pretty much go by what I've read in places like BA, BP, etc. There's not much on Youtube, either. Also, I haven't seen any of them first hand, so it's pretty hard for me to get a handle on which of the low level intriguing guys are the best or have the most upside. Maples and Wells are my favorites among the short season guys right now. I feel comfortable saying Maples has the highest upside of any pitcher in this system. Wells seems to have enough projection left that he might have a better upside than a work horse 3/4. Out of the rest of that group? My personal favorite would be Michael Jensen, who was drafted out of CC and signed despite a strong commitment to Southern Cal. I also like Willengton Cruz a good amount, since he's a lefty with projection. Jin-Yeong Kim fascinates me since he's dropped off the face of the planet after a rocky first year stateside as a 19 year old. Despite looking awful in Boise, he rebounded in the AZ League and clearly has talent.

Long story short, the problem with the pitching in this system is that most of the best prospects haven't even been past short season ball yet. The depth of potentially high quality pitchers in the low levels is really impressive, to boot. I think there are potentially useful pitchers in the high minors...but that's about it. I'll split this post up into three parts: AAA/AA guys, A+/A guys, and the short season names. AAA/AA I don't think there would be a whole lot of argument with naming Trey McNutt as the top prospect in this system. He crashed a lackluster Top 10 last year and drew comparisons to Andrew Cashner. Unfortunately, much like Cashner, McNutt struggled with injuries. Making matters worse, McNutt was not particularly effective when healthy. I don't think the talent is gone, plus he might need an offseason of rest, but his past season makes me wonder if he'd be better suited to relief. If he can stay healthy, he could be a quality #2. After McNutt, there are a lot of guys who could be potentially useful relievers who also have their share of issues: Jeff Beliveau (prone to flyballs and HRs), Rafael Dolis (low strikeout rate), Kevin Rhoderick (great stuff, but wild), and Chris Carpenter (low K rates, wild). The starters are a mix of C/C+ guys. Jay Jackson has fallen off the planet, but he could always rebound. Brooks Raley and Ryan Searle might have some upside left, but probably won't be better than #4 starters. Chris Rusin might end up as the LHP version of Casey Coleman. Alberto Cabrera and Nick Struck were both rushed to AAA and seem like intriguing candidates for relief work. A+/A I'm inclined to agree with toonsterwu that Dae-Eun Rhee is the next best pitching prospect in the system. Most people had left him for dead after last season, but he put up impressive numbers this year across the board, especially in the second half of the season. I'm still a bit concerned about his size and his ability to pitch 180+ innings in a season, but his recovery has gone better than expected. Robert Whitenack will likely end up in Peoria/Daytona on his return from TJS. He already had high quality secondary stuff coming into the season, but the velocity spike was encouraging. Even if he makes a full recovery, I have to wonder if his improved numbers were just a fluke. If it wasn't, he's a potential 2/3. Dallas Beeler also merits some mention here. He was pushed to AA after having a strong start to the season in Peoria, but he clearly was overmatched with Tennessee. Still, he's another year removed from Tommy John Surgery and is young enough to refine his secondary stuff to augment his quality sinker. Assuming AA didn't kill his confidence, I like his potential as a middle of the rotation anchor. Zach Cates is a guy I really like from the Cashner trade. He's relatively new to pitching, has a live arm, and his peripherals were excellent last season. I'm curious to see how he looks next season. After those guys, it gets ugly. The most intriguing names include Aaron Kurcz (potential setup man/closer, but is still a ways away), Jeff Antigua (not a fan; maybe a 4/5 at best), Zach Rosscup (intriguing, but injury-plagued), and Austin Kirk (season fell apart after the no-no). Short Season This is where it gets fun. Dillon Maples received a huge overslot and has a fantastic fastball/curve combination. He's my #3 pitching prospect behind McNutt and Rhee. Not much to say since we haven't seen him in action in the minors, but I'm excited. Ben Wells has slowly been building momentum since the Cubs gave him an overslot bonus despite being a largely unknown prospect out of Arkansas. The sinker is deadly, plus he apparently can rear back for a little extra. He had some issues going deep into games with Boise, but I think he can overcome it with more experience. After those two, there's a glut of really intriguing pitchers. That actually could merit another post altogether. While the Latin American guys (Starling Peralta, Jose Rosario, Amaury Paulino, Luis Liria, Willengton Cruz, Jean Sandoval) seem to have gotten the most coverage here and elsewhere, the Cubs have actually stocked up on pitching prospects from other areas. The 2010 and 2011 drafts brought in Tayler Scott, Michael Jensen, Austin Reed, Arturo Maltos-Garcia, Austin Urban, Tony Zych, and Brian Smith. The Cubs' Asian forays have netted three pitchers who could make a splash in Yao Lin Wang, Jin-Yeong Kim, and Su-Min Jung. As for Hayden Simpson...talk about rotten luck. I'm seriously hoping he makes a full recovery and proves everyone wrong who ripped him when he was selected, but between the mono and the injuries, holy hell does he have a long way to go.

ah, so you do care at least a little bit about what he says. http://incompetech.com/Images/caring.png