84 MPH pitches up in the zone are going to get hit out of the park more often than pitches at 87 mph in the same spot. That's more an effect of his command being not as good as it was last year, but yeah we don't even know what we should be looking to regress it to because of the dumb ball. His SwStr% is back down to a few ticks lower than 2014 and 15 at 7.5%. His first pitch strike rate is average now, instead of well above average. His O-Contact% is way up which is weird because I'd guess guys are chasing but just not whiffing as much, which again velocity. His EV might be down on average but I'd like to see the data on barrels overall. I think he's clearly giving up more barrels than last year but that's totally based off the eye test. Either way, in no world is 84mph better than 87-88mph with a 90 mixed in here and there, and until that changes we shouldn't expect him to be that good and right now he's an average MLB pitcher, and even that's kind of crazy when you throw that softly.