The bolded part is what i hear most about wanting to draft HS players. HS players have all the huge upside, you find more all stars, ect. Interestingly this analysis points in the other direction. College players are safer AND you have higher probablity of upside, whats not to like. Signability Question-I dont think this is that much of a negative to this analysis. True, guys who have signability issues can drop down the draft. But rarely are they out of the 1st round. After pick 20 you are getting a real accurate read of their true slot without any signability issues. If you were going to analysis top 5 or top ten, then yes i thinks its valid. College guys are closer the to bigs and thus your return on the investement is quicker. That should count too.