I see what you are saying but 30 games is still just a small slice of the season. Last year on May 7th the Phillies were 11-15, the Braves were 13-16, the Angels were 18-11, the Mariners were 12-16 and the Rockies were 16-11.
I don't consider the Phillies a bad team because they are 15-18 despite not having Harper basically all year and Turner in a terrible slump. Of course you could definitely make an argument that last year's Phillies were a slightly above average team that snuck into the playoffs with a newly created playoff spot and got hot, so maybe their reality is that we shouldn't look at them as last year's runners up and instead a team that won 87 games and is struggling to start the next season.