So Mexico is up 3 points, up by 2 goals in GD, and down 2 in GA. If Mexico loses and Panama wins for some reason, Mexico is out unless Mexico loses by only 1 and Panama wins by 1 AND mexico scores 2 more goals than Panama does. So it would have to be something like a 4-3 Mexico loss and a 1-0 Panama win for Mexico to advance to the playoff. And that is because Mexico and Panama would tie in points, Goal Differential, Goals scored, and Mexico would lead in points scored in H2H matchup 4-1. I think this is correct.