don_kessinger_was_good

Who has been a factor in his signing? Has any team been rumored to be in the lead for Giles's services? The Cardinals are supposedly no longer interested. What evidence do you have that suggests Hendry hasn't done everything he can to let Giles's agent know of the team's interest? The latest rumor I've read was in a quote from the Newark Star-Ledger just a couple of posts before yours stating that Giles now seems to be headed back to San Diego. Who knows? All I do know is that Hendry has contacted Bick more than once. Steve Phillips predicts that the Cubs will sign Giles. And Ken Rosenthal predicts the Cubs will try to trade for Bobby Abreu. What does all of this mean? Not much. But it seems to fly in the face of your assertion that the Cubs have an "inability to be even slight factors in the player that can help the team the most". There has also been talk of Brad Wilkerson, Cliff Floyd, Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns and Kevin Mench--the first three of whom at least also fit the description of guys that can help the Cubs.

From what I have, the Yankees are done paying Vazquez, so he'd be due 24 mil over the next two years(11.5/12.5). However, I'm not positive that this is the case. From this site: NY Yankees to pay $9M ($3M/year) of 2005-07 salaries That would leave $8.5m and $9.5 in 2006 and 2007 for whatever team he plays for. So if Arizona would take on $6MM of that over two years let's say, then I'd certainly be interested. Give them a replacement but cheap starter in exchange. And they desperately need bullpen help. Jerome Williams + Roberto Novoa for Javier Vazquez and $6MM? I'd do that. Vazquez > Williams and Novoa is about to become surplus goods for us.

Um, let's not exaggerate here...Wood, Pinto, Hill, Guzman are not bullpen options. Novoa sucks. Wellemeyer is no longer a prospect. Aardsma has self-imploded. Shoot, Andy Shipman is a better prospect than Aardsma at this point. If Howry is indeed signed, the Cubs have but two extra relievers beyond the seven they'll certainly carry (because of Wood's fragility). One is Novoa, who cannot/will not beat out Mike Wuertz. He's likely trade bait later this winter. The other is Van Buren, who could be trade bait, but more likely will simply return to Iowa for Round 2, on call as the first option should an injury befall one of the ML relievers. After Howry though, yes, I am quite sure Hendry is finished with his bullpen and will likely move on to the next task--nailing down Rafael Furcal.

Didn't need proof. As recently as two weeks ago, Eyre's agent said they had at least been casually contacted by every team in baseball. There is a premium for effective setup men nowadays, Hendry realizes this, took the bull by the horns, and made sure he got his men (if indeed Howry is signed). For once, I am impressed with Hendry's effort, even if some here are impatient for action at the field positions.

It would be helpful if some posters would stop doing nested upon nested upon nested replies. Cut and delete the old inner posts please, as a courtesy to other readers? Thanks.

I don't understand. Has anyone actually argued that they WOULDN'T want Giles on the Cubs? Hard to believe anyone feels that way. The choices I saw were signing Giles versus trading for Abreu, which to me, given our team needs for OBP and RF power production, is like being asked to choose between New York cheesecake and chocolate cheesecake, or in a more adult situation, between a blonde and a redhead. You know what? Either will do. :-)

Yep. Even if Howry signs at $4MM/year, based on earlier analysis, we estimate Hendry would have anywhere from $21MM to $26MM in MORE money to spend. And he still has all of his trading chips. Walker, Williams, Hairston, Patterson, Novoa, and the youngsters in the minors. There is nothing stopping the Cubs from doing this bullpen upgrade, AND signing Rafael Furcal for SS and leadoff, AND signing Brian Giles or trading for Bobby Abreu (as two examples), AND trading for a new CF. The only thing that gets precluded is bringing in a big name starting pitcher, and if Hendry concluded he doesn't like Millwood or Burnett, and doesn't think he can put together a trade package for someone like Beckett or Barry Zito, then he goes with what he already has and focuses on the bullpen and offense. I can dig that. Again, my only complaint so far is Rusch and especially, Neifi. I would really like to have Neifi's $2.5MM back to spend on two quality outfielders for my bench (for example), but there you are. Dusty <3 Neifi, can't do anything about that until he gets fired.

Then, I would assume that BJ Ryan will go to the Phillies. That would seem to be the way it's going. Atlanta re-signs Farnsworth, Cleveland re-signs Wickman, Baltimore can fight it out with Toronto, Boston and maybe Cincinnati for Todd Jones. Gordon likely stays in NY.

Scott Eyre, 3-year trend, ERA: 3.32, 4.10, 2.63; WHIP: 1.51, 1.33, 1.08; BAA: .268, .219, .200 And the splits are even better, since Dusty will likely use Eyre more against LH batters: 2003--WHIP 1.14, BAA .219; 2004--WHIP 0.95, BAA .200; 2005--WHIP 1.04, BAA .182. Yup, looks terribly inconsistent and unpredictable to me.

He's also going to get three times the money per year. Is Wagner three times more valuable than Eyre? Especially to a team like the Cubs that already has a respectable closer in Ryan Dempster? (And before anyone gets started on that canard, I remind you that as closer, Dempster was 4-0, with 33/35 saves, and an ERA of 1.85. "Lucky" indeed... :roll: )

Looking at the year by year stats for Eyre and Howry, what is it that is there that inspires confidence in you that they're especially predictable? Since you choose to belabor your point...it was reported extensively that Eyre suffers from acute ADD, and has been on treatment for it the last few years. His numbers have been outstanding in that time. Yes, I would consider a three-year run after a life-changing event a run of sustained performance that leads to some confidence that the trend will continue. Bob Howry had three solid years for the White Sox--two of which were terrific--then started having arm trouble, culminating in surgery in 2003. Since coming back from surgery, his numbers are excellent to near-ridiculous. Yes, I think that constitutes a trend of good pitching that the odds say can reasonably be expected to continue.

You are being entirely too negative about the quality of Eyre and Howry. These guys aren't scrubs. As for the money, big deal, at least it's being spent on something here that can help the team, unlike the Neifi and Rusch signings. An improved Cub bullpen is worth an extra 8 to 10 games over the course of a season. That's puts us back to the upper 80 win total category and a playoff contender again. Add a leadoff man and some respectable outfielders and this team is ready to go. Both of these guys are average players who happen to be coming off extremely lucky seasons. Not only were both lucky on a balls in play perspective, but both were well under their typical HR/IP last year. We're committing 7M/year and getting pitchers no better than Wuertz and Ohman. Who knows, maybe they're durable enough to hold up to Dusty's usage patterns. That would be a plus. Whoa whoa. You're saying that Howry and Eyre are equal to Wuertz and Ohman? Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. Ohamn career era - 4.17 Eyre career era - 4.52 Wuertz career era - 3.96 Howry career era - 3.58 What part of Eyre's post-ADD story did you not read? Ohman and Wuertz career ERA? Small. Sample. Size. Look, I like Ohman and Wuertz, I want them in my bullpen. But you are exaggerating your point to argue they are as good as Eyre and Howry, respectively. They are not.

Haha, give me some of what you're smoking. You think you can get BJ Ryan for 3/24? Give me a break. Wagner is about to sign for 4/40. And Novoa stinks. At their reported $$, Eyre + Howry + Dempster = $12.5MM. That is a lot of money, yes. But would you rather have, for similar money, a 9th inning but one inning-at-a-time stud like Wagner--and two zeroes for the 7th and 8th that never get a lead to him? Or three above average to good relievers that get from your starter in the 6th all the way to the end of the game? I know which option I'd choose. And when your $10MM closer blows out his elbow, what do you do then? Ask San Francisco and Los Angeles how well that model works. With this model however, you lose Dempster (say) and you've got two or three other options in house, ready to go, to pick up the slack and avoid disaster.

Great, you sit around and wait for Todd Wellemeyer and Roberto Novoa and Cliff Bartosh to figure it out and have a "high BABIP" year. Me, I won't be holding my breath. I like my odds better on going with guys that have at least shown they can have ML success, than guys who have never had any.

The blog guy at mlbtraderumors that correctly scooped the Cameron for Nagy trade (he has close Mets contacts) is reporting that the Mets are about to announce a deal for Billy Wagner at 4 years, $40MM. Kind of puts the $$ amounts and years to Eyre and Howry (the two best free agent setup men on the market this year) into perspective. Wagner will be 38 years old in the last year of his deal. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

You are being entirely too negative about the quality of Eyre and Howry. These guys aren't scrubs. As for the money, big deal, at least it's being spent on something here that can help the team, unlike the Neifi and Rusch signings. An improved Cub bullpen is worth an extra 8 to 10 games over the course of a season. That's puts us back to the upper 80 win total category and a playoff contender again. Add a leadoff man and some respectable outfielders and this team is ready to go.

I don't know why people find this initiative so hard to believe. I noted immediately after the season ended that a strong, deep, effective bullpen is an absolute necessity for this team. It is needed because many of our starters--well, all of them actually except for Zambrano--are simply incapable of going deep into ballgames. Maddux because of lack of durability, the others because of terminal high pitch counts. Further, casual observation shows that most of the successful teams in recent years have been characterized by excellent, quality, deep bullpens. For these teams, the bullpen is a team strength, not an afterthought as it so often has been with the Cubs. You look at the White Sox, Angels, Padres and Astros this past season in the playoffs, Cleveland that barely missed, and even Minnesota. Each of those teams had monster bullpens, probably (along with Washington) the best bullpens in baseball. In 2004, the Cardinals bullpen was awesome. The playoff Dodgers had Mota and Brazoban in support of Gagne. Etc... Finally, Jim Hendry has dropped hints, as parsed through the media, that he regards this as an essential move for the Cubs. He likes the "strong bullpen" model. And he is pursuing it. Good for him, at least it's a strategy, you can debate whether it's a wise strategy as a separate issue. So if you're going to do this, you do it full-bore, not half-baked. If the Howry signing is true, I applaud it. I've seen enough of the Michael Wuertz', and Todd Wellemeyer's, and Roberto Novoa's to know that they are not the answer. They do not inspire confidence. Wuertz is OK in a middle relief role (if not over-used, Dusty!), but you need the quality setup men to get that total bullpen depth. And now (if Howry is a Cub) we have it. Dempster, Howry, Eyre, Williamson, Wuertz, Ohman and (at least until Jerome Williams is traded) Glendon Rusch in long relief/spot starter. With (unless they are traded) Novoa, Jermaine Van Buren, Andy Shipman and Todd Wellemeyer likely fighting to show they belong down in Iowa. Folks, that bullpen is good, and just became a team strength. Hallelujah to that!!

You don't win at baseball by trading away your stars. Whether or not Pie's a future star is up to Hendry and Co. to evaluate, and I do think they've done a pretty good job at evaluating who to trade and who not -- outside of Willis, of course. And Sisco. I agree though, on balance one thing Oneira has been very good at is providing the boss with an objective assessment of the real ceiling for our prospects. In some cases he should have made the call earlier to get value for said prospect (Juan Cruz being the most egregious example), but at the same time, they got max value out of Hee Seop and Bobby Hill, so they've done pretty well overall. With regard to current developments, you have to be careful in deciphering whether the Cubs REALLY think Hill and Pie are the real deal, so they will not listen to offers for them, or if they're simply blowing smoke to create trade value for them.

I'd rather have Josh Beckett than Javier Vazquez if I get to choose, but Javier is a horse. You'll get your 200 IP from him, that you can take to the bank. Problem is that he's overpaid, yet another bad starting pitcher FA contract.

I proposed this trade two weeks ago, in the Gillick thread, and I still like it:

If Blalock--he of the 749 OPS--and Denks is sufficient to get Beckett and Lowell, then I fail to see how Corey Patterson, Felix Pie and Rich Hill is not a superior combination for Beckett, Lowell and Pierre. Pie covers a position for Florida they need more compared to Blalock (they want to move Cabrera back to 3B), Hill is ready now (as opposed to Denks in AA), and they get a free option on Patterson ever turning it around. I would hate to lose Pie, but to get a pitcher like Beckett, it's worth it.

The only rational reason I can figure Hendry not being hot after Giles, especially when he seems to be ripe for the signing, is that Hendry must think Abreu is realistically available via trade. And I must admit, I would prefer him over Giles, as Abreu is younger, faster, a better slugger, a better defender, and just as good at OBP. And hits LH like Giles. Thing is, Abreu will cost some talent, even with his expensive contract, while Giles only costs $$--something the Cubs have alot of. Hendry is really really really maddeningly dense if he doesn't quickly solve one of our two biggest problems with a phone call and a cashier's check. Fer cryin' out loud!

Not interested in Rowand at all. Over-rated.

If you eat half of Lowell's contract, you could move him somewhere like the Dodgers, who need a 3B and (if Kent moves to 1B) a 2B. Texas as mentioned is a possibility. The Nationals could be interested if Jose Vidro is toast. The Royals want to make a splash with the $20MM in new payroll ownership has given them. Eat enough of Lowell's contract, and he's moveable. He's not TOO old, he's a year removed from a good season, and as awful as he was last year, he still drove in over 50 runs. That would be respectable production if he plays 2B.

I would like Guillermo Mota to add to my bullpen. He was lights out as setup man in LA for Gagne. His stuff is very similar to Dotel's. If I offered Florida Jermaine Van Buren and Geovanny Soto, do you think they'd bite??