don_kessinger_was_good

Rotoworld's being awful nice to Leicester. He had a 1.49 WHIP in almost 600 minor league innings, and his Major League totals are almost mirrors of his minor league numbers. He'll be 26 next year and is behind Wuertz, Williamson, and Novoa for the RH middle relief/setup spot(s). That said, this isn't a bad gamble for the Rangers, since Leicester does have decent stuff. You're too kind to Ice Man, too. Not only had he fallen behind the major league guys like Wuertz, Williamson and Novoa, he was behind Van Buren, Wellemeyer and Brownlie at this point, too. Shoot, things were so bad for Leicester they used him as a starter at Iowa last year, where....he sucked as well. Good luck to him though, seemed like a nice guy.

This made me laugh. Secondly, the Hawkins and Remlinger signings were good signings. I have no problem saying that it's Dusty's fault that they're not producing effectively in our bullpen right now. Both of them were repeatedly and horribly misused, which resulted in their respective implosions. That said, I'm not that big on Howry - I credit a post Diffusion made for this; he pointed out that Howry's great year last year was very possibly due to an unusually "lucky" BABIP against (and, as he's not really a strikeout pitcher, this matters quite a bit). He wouldn't be a bad signing, but I think there are better options out there. The best way for us to make traction in our quest to improve middle relief performance and depth is going to be via the trade route. We have the trading chips, Hendry simply needs to find the right trading partner (eg, Cleveland or Minnesota) and identify the right target.

And he's spent it like a freaking moron. When guys like Tejada and Vladdy are out there, he's giving raises to Alfonseca, Macias and Neifi. Before he even gets a chance to spend on the impact players, he spends significant chunks on replacables like Rusch. He cuts corners repeatedly. I'm not saying he doesn't eventually spend the money. I'm saying he spends it on mediocrity, and that is exactly why this team has been barely above average under his control. Where were they going to put Vladdy?? LF?? Cmon that's not a fair criticism. Seems like he wanted to go west as he chose between LA and Anaheim. Sosa was horrible in RF from 2002 on. They very easily could have put Sosa in LF and Guerrero in RF. With only a year remaining on Alou's contract, they could have worked a deal with San Fran for a number of options to offset the cost of Alou's final season. Alfonso would have been nice as a back up to Ramirez and Walker in 2004. As stated before, they could have gotten creative to make it work. Just like they would have needed to get creative to make a Beltran deal work. Just like they could have been creative to make a Tejada deal work. Obviously, they never would have gotten Tejada, Guerrero and Beltran. But, they missed the mark on getting ANY of them when there was availability. Giles could end up being the next in a long line. There is no creativity needed to sign Giles. Just pony up the cash. Simple. Painless. Obvious. Once that's done, then figure out how much cash you have left to possibly upgrade over Walker, upgrade over Cedeno at SS, upgrade over Patterson in CF, upgrade the lead off situation, etc... It was upgrading over Burnitz, but we don't have him anymore. Now, we need an upgrade over????? We don't have any in house options to upgrade over in RF. That is the biggest hole. Period. What's especially annoying about the Giles situation is that he fills one of our biggest needs precisely, we have over $30MM in money to spend, and his contract looks to be extremely affordable. I just saw a blurb today saying the Yankees could offer him 3/30. That's it? Given our needs, I'd happily pay Giles up to 3/35, and it is sounding like that will get the deal done. Hendry sure as heck better see it the same way, or the pitchforks will be out.

I don't really want Giles 2nd. I'd rather have him 3rd. Giles would have the highest OBP, so you want your power (Lee, Ramirez) getting the cracks at knocking him in. But Giles also has the ability to knock home some runs. In a perfect world, the Cubs would have a 1-2 combo (Furcal and Walker/Murton) who could get on base 35% of the time in front of Giles, Lee, and ARam. Giles between the 2 RHs would be nice, but I'd rather Lee and/or Ramirez hit with a runner on 40% of the time, than Ramirez and/or Murton/Barrett/whoever. Dusty has this lefty/righty fetish, you know. If the Cubs sign Giles, you can pencil him in at #4, sandwiched between Lee and Ramirez. It's all but done. Heck, he hit Burnitz in there, he'd surely put Giles in that slot. I do agree that Giles ahead of Lee, then Ramirez, makes the most baseball sense though.

Jerome Williams and Ronny Cedeno for Alfonso Soriano. That's the rumor I heard at least, though just Dallas talk radio banter, third-hand. Still, wouldn't surprise me given Hendry's known pecadilloes--speed and power. Frankly, he'd be a pretty darn good #6 hitter if we get Giles or Dunn for cleanup. His run production is more important than his K totals and low OBP when hitting lower in a lineup. An interesting twist when I heard this: Soriano is another Dominican. Maybe Hendry is consciously trying to get these guys together in an atmosphere they're comfortable in? Aramis, Neifi and Furcal are all Dominican. So is Felix Pie. Curious.

That's encouraging. 3-year splits Day: .341 .395 .438 .833 Night: .288 .338 .354 .692 Those are pretty drastic numbers. I like the split. But I still don't particularly want Pierre. I'd much rather have Wilkerson. What if we only end up giving up Corey and a Rule V droppee anyway? Who knows what we'd have to give up for Wilkerson? Of course, we have no idea what it will take to acquire either Pierre or Wilkerson, so it's hard to say. I think it's important to look at the number of slap hits that Pierre would lose in the Wrigley long grass vs. the extra-base potential of Wilkerson. Pierre's OBP is highly dependent upon his average, whereas Wilkerson's is based on his ability to walk. He slugs significantly more, as well. This obsession to get a "speedy" lead-off hitter versus a guy who just plain gets on base is annoying and, frankly, foolish. Speed is good, and an asset, but you can't just consider speed in a vacuum. You need to consider the whole package. And a comparison of the complete Wilkerson package vs. the complete Pierre package leaves no doubt which player would be better for helping the Cubs score runs. If you're only interested in OBP, what's wrong with Pierre's effort in 2001, 2003 and 2004? As for the "long grass" strawman, it works both ways--Pierre is the best bunter in the NL, he will have more success doing that with long grass. Look, I like Wilkerson too, but (a) there is no evidence that he's even on the block, and (b) the cost to obtain him would undoubtedly be much higher than Juan Pierre. I prefer to deal in realistic alternatives. As I've seen them this offseason, there are only four: 1. Stick with Corey Patterson and/or Jerry Hairston. I think only a few stragglers are willing to try that again. 2. Trade for Milton Bradley. He's obtainable, good, and can be had for peanuts. But he is volatile and has a bad history, something this ownership and management team do not want, for better or worse. 3. Trade for Mike Cameron. Great defense, respectable slugger. Lousy average and OBP, strikes out a lot, little speed, coming off a serious injury. 4. Sign FA Kenny Lofton. Due to regress significantly in 2006. No longer runs well. High injury risk. Defense is as poor as Pierre's. That's it, at least as far as we know. I'll take Pierre over those four alternatives.

Juan Cruz. Juan Pizarro And that is all of them. Muy bien.

you're quoting stats from 2001 - why don't you take a look at how bad he was all-around last year? Um, OK. It was a trivia question, not a trade analysis.

Nope. My favorite Cub in Pony League, the original Mad Dog. In 1976--the year before he was traded, a year in which he won his second consecutive batting title, posted a 412 OBP, and a 912 OPS--Bill Madlock struck out a mere 27 times in 514 ABs. Pierre's effort is a lower K/AB ratio, but considering Madlock was a much better hitter, I consider his ability to make contact that much more impressive.

I think one or both of the last two answers are EY. I'm not even close to sure though. Yes on #2, no on #3. EY stole 54 bases in 2000.

Quick--how many past Cub players can you recall named "Juan"? If Pierre comes to the Cubs, he could steal over 50 bases in a season (he's done it twice). Who was the last Cub player to steal as many as 50 in a season? In 2001, Pierre struck out just 29 times in 617 ABs. Who was the last Cub player to strike out so infrequently (minimum 500 ABs)??

I think the Cubs would be dumb to dump Hairston. He's fine in a utility role. Assuming the Cubs do sign Furcal, Hairston becomes your backup 2B and CF, Neifi becomes the backup SS and 3B. Good outcome. Now the Cubs would still need two reserve OF-ers, one and preferably both should bat LH or switch-hit, one should have some HR power, the other speed and defense. One of the two should be able to play 1B to backup Lee. I can see Adam Greenberg getting one of those spots, and that would be OK. The other, Matt Stairs sure would fill that role ideally, but we won't get him, he gets regular playing time in KC. I've advocated the return of Hee Seop Choi, which would be a terrific get for that 1B/OF LH power bat role on the bench. I'm sure there are other good choices, too. Bottomline for me is that Hairston makes sense, keep him. And NO MACIAS, UNDER ANY CONDITION!!

Here's my guess: Corey Patterson, JK Ryu and Geovanny Soto. Marlins need a backup catcher, and they are rumored to be shopping Paul LoDuca. Ryu is a solid prospect but someone we can't protect prior to the Rule 5 draft. Patterson is a goner, it's just a matter of where to. I don't think there's any way Murton, Cedeno or Pie are at risk of being moved, especially for Juan Pierre. Rich Hill, that is a tougher nut. I'm not a big Rich Hill fan, but I think he should net more than Juan Pierre. So here's the trade I fear: Patterson, Hill and Ryu. That's too much.

Maybe he's just a late bloomer. Or just needed his mechanics worked out after his injury. To say he has a career WHIP of 1.5 is misleading--he only has two full years in the big leagues, 2003 (WHIP 1.50) and 2005 (WHIP 1.32). Since the latter came post-surgery, I put more stock in that than the 2003 numbers. Also keep in mind that we're trying to decipher the numbers that Jim Hendry likes, not what you or I like. He likes saves, and MacDougal saved 27 and 21 games in those two years. He likes strikeouts, and MacDougal has a 9K/9IP ratio both years. He likes tall, strong pitchers, and MacDougal fits there. He is the kind of pitcher Hendry likes to pursue, regardless of whether there are better options out there (and there are). Also CPatt, if you're going to get upset about a 1.50 WHIP, I call your attention to one Glendon Rusch. Who we know Jim Hendry loves.

Actually, control has always been an issue for him. K/bb was good in 2005, but it's never been good in his career. He walked over 5/9 in the minors, and is over 4 in the majors. Perhaps he's solved his control issues, but more likely than not, walks will continue to be a problem for him. Unfortunately, Hendry doesn't have a problem with pitchers who walk a lot of guys. Goony, there were stories in the papers here last year saying that MacDougal had changed his delivery and release point post-surgery, and he credited that with his improved control. Whether that is true or not I don't know, but most of the time in 2005, he looked pretty good. I'd be uncomfortable relying on him as a closer as KC does/did, but as a middle reliever, I'm fine with him. He's a talented guy, there's no doubt about that.

Mentioned on KC sports talk radio this afternoon, drive time, rumor seems to have legs. Royals fans seem to like the idea, they desperately need the offense and Walker is the kind of guy they can afford on limited funds. We get the middle relief depth we need, though I presume if Hendry doesn't add another arm, the Cubs will probably go into spring training letting Williamson, MacDougal and Wuertz battle it out for the primary 8th inning setup job. Note that MacDougal is still very cheap, though he will get a big raise in arbitration. Still, less expensive than Walker, so the Cubs look to save a bit of payroll here. No mention of who the prospect would be the Cubs are throwing in, but I find it hard to believe it would be one of our Top 10 or even Top 20 guys. Probably a player Hendry feels he can't protect on the 40 man prior to the Rule 5 draft, so he's going to use him now as trade currency. Someone like Brandon Sing, or Sergio Mitre, or Jon Koronka would be my guess. Some will feel if this trade rumor is true, we should get more for Walker, but I think it's about right. MacDougal is just 28 years old (he'll turn 29 in spring training), he's a former first round draft pick of the Royals(1999). Last year, returning from injury in 2004, he put up a 1.32 WHIP, 3.33 ERA, and 21 saves, but here's the number I'm sure gets Hendry excited: in 70 IP, his K/BB ratio was 72/24. A reliever that can throw strikes! That's a new concept for the Cubs. He's 6'4"" and has that 9K/9IP ratio, so he has the two assets the Cubs seem to value most in pitchers. :roll: Anyways, since the impression I got was that this was more than a rumor, I thought I'd post it and get a thread started to discuss the pros and cons. Myself, I like it. We need the middle relief help. I like the idea of the starters handing off to the bullpen in the 6th and 7th innings with confidence, for once. Moving Walker now certainly means that Hendry is putting all his eggs in the Rafael Furcal basket. I'm fine with that, but he better close the deal.

If you fail with signing Furcal, you could put Cedeno at SS and go get a new 2B, instead. Since they seem dead set on trading Walker. Jeff Kent is supposedly asking for a trade, that could be an option. Kaz Matsui and Orlando Hudson are definitely available. Grudzielanek is a free agent. Bill Mueller is a free agent. And Alfonso Soriano is likely available. But obviously, things will be much simpler and much cleaner if we simply close the deal with Furcal.

The Dodgers, like the Cubs, have about $40MM in freed up money to spend this year--if they maintained recent payroll. What the news is indicating is that the cheapskate McCourt intends on absorbing most of that payroll deduction and not replacing it. Considering the Dodger history, its profitability, and its location in the #2 market, this outcome is heinous. Dodger fans should justifiably be scaling the ramparts, pitchforks and torches in hand.

Actually, in fairness to Sammy, his decline began precipitously after the Solomon Torres beaning. Prior to that, Sammy was tearing it up at his usual rate in 2003, his OPS at the time IIRC was nearly 1000. I think the beaning did a lot of damage to Sammy's aggressiveness and approach, and his ego tried to compensate with the stupid corked bat episode. That was dumb, but in a way, an understandable reaction too, if in fact the beaning had the effect it might have had. There is no evidence that Sammy ever used steroids, and I do not believe he did. To insinuate so is grossly unfair. His game fell apart rapidly as he hit his late 30s just as it did for so many other greats in the game. Injuries take their toll, the beaning, etc... Sammy for the bench!!

Matt Murton, Felix Pie, Rich Hill and Todd Wellemeyer to the Reds for Dunn and Kearns. Reds can give Pie an additional year of AAA seasoning and go with a Murton, Griffey, Pena OF for 2006. Hill immediately joins Cincy's woeful rotation, and Wellemeyer would be a useful middle reliever for them. And of course, the Reds get salary relief, with Dunn due a big raise in arbitration. Why would Cincinnati do it? Because their pitching is miserably bad, with no help on the horizon from the minors. They are finally coming to realize that they must address their pitching, and their extra OF-ers are the only trading chips they have to get it done. Regardless of whether the help comes from in the division or not. If the Reds wanted another starting pitcher, something like Mitre or JK Ryu instead of Wellemeyer, I'd certainly accomodate that, too. Why move Murton? I really like him, but in my view, Murton and Kearns is a straight and fair swap, and Kearns has the advantage of being able to play RF. If you're going to add Dunn, he can only play LF, making Murton expendable. All wishful thinking of course, Hendry doesn't have the vision, and the Reds don't have the gumption, to make it happen.

If Sammy would accept a bench role as PH and occasional, maybe 10 starts during the year type thing, I'd sign him to a 1-year, $1MM deal as a going-away tour gift. The Cubs are his home, and we DO need a guy who can come off the bench late in the game and hit a home run. We aren't going to get that from Jerry Hairston or Neifi Perez, who as things currently stand are the only two position players on our bench. Sammy could easily get 150 PAs for the season, and based on his career HR/AB ratio, he could have an outside shot at reaching the 600 mark he so covets. More important though, the Cubs owe Sammy a lot, and no matter what some say, most of the fans still love him. I do. He had a snit and walked out during the last game of the year, big deal. It's not players that get into fights with teammates, or get in trouble with the law, or are drunks or drug abusers or who knows what. Heck yeah, Sammy for the bench, I'm all for it.

Here's my first Cub game. Ugly, ugly. Omen of a lifetime of frustration, I suppose. Did see Santo stumble and bumble his way to a triple though... http://baseball-almanac.com/box-scores/boxscore.php?boxid=197308150CHN

If Furcal gets too expensive, it makes it that much more imperative IMO to nail down the Pierre trade, which I'm guessing is why Hendry has been pursuing that as his first priority. We simply must get a leadoff man, failure with that is not an option. So long as you have Pierre, you COULD just put Cedeno at SS with Neifi as his backup, keep Walker and bat him 2nd, with Hairston as his backup, and that wouldn't be so bad....with a good manager. Unfortunately, we know Baker would would play Neifi over Cedeno and bat him 2nd, and bat Walker 6th. Which would be a disaster. Highlighting yet again why Hendry is screwing himself from the start by hanging his flag on a mental incompetent like Johnnie B. Unbelievable.

Talk of Pie to get Pierre is nuts. I don't think it should take more than Patterson and Brian Dopirak to bring in Pierre, nor do I think it will. If the Marlins insisted on one of our mid-level pitching prospects like Nolasco or Ryu instead of Dopirak, I'd still do the deal. Keep in mind that even if Pierre gets say, $6MM in arbitration, Patterson cost us $3MM in 2005. The net $$ outlay here is small relative to the improvement at the margin that Pierre will bring to this team. I'm struggling why folks can't see the potential big jump in team runs scored if Pierre and Furcal are at the top of the lineup, hitting in front of Lee, Ramirez and someone like Abreu or Dunn or Giles. I'm also tired of the talk about Pierre's 2005. He had a down season, everyone knows this. He's also had three outstanding seasons to his credit, I'm of the opinion that three outweighs one. Give the guy a chance.

Craig, I understand your points, but I'm trying to weigh needs and priorities versus alternatives. Even IF both Jerome Williams and Rich Hill were used as trade pieces to fill holes elsewhere, you still have a five-man rotation in place with Glendon Rusch as the #5 guy--and I don't think the Cubs paid him $3MM to sit in the bullpen all year as an insurance policy. I don't like that choice, but it is what is, the GM made it. If the health our primary #1 to #4 guys falters, that is where your new starter fits in. But honestly--at what point do we have to expect that some of our highly touted minor league pitching, at some point, at least ONE of these guys needs to be able to step in the breach and give us something, right? Otherwise, what's the point? The Cubs have been stockpiling starting pitching for years now in the minor leagues, it's time to set some expectations that one of these guys is going to need to be able and help us if Wood or someone else can't go. If both Jerome and Hill are traded, Iowa's opening day rotation will likely look like Angel Guzman, Ricky Nolasco, Renyel Pinto, JK Ryu, and Sergio Mitre. With Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol and Sean Gallagher in the wings at AA. And the enigma of Bobby Brownlie in Iowa's bullpen. Surely, if the need arose, ONE of these guys could step in until Hendry was able to engineer an intra-season trade, right?