wade
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Everything posted by wade
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http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/blogs/2009/08/04/putting-on-the-white-wig/ 'nother one is up.
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http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/blogs/2009/08/04/putting-on-the-white-wig/ This is my lukewarm conclusion to the series on pitch counts referenced above.
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Which is why the manager has to be the sane one. No way can a guy in Nen's spot say, "sorry skip, I can't go today." Could you imagine if he did that in the World Series? He would be hammered in the media and press. And this, I can see as a real legit point against Baker. He's a 'player's manager'. I'd bet 5 dollars versus a hole in a donut that Harang told him last night he was good to face Lee. Dusty, being on the side of his player, would say go get 'em. You are exactly right- managers have to protect these guys and protect the franchise- doing so means sometimes giving more weight to the importance of that than of winning today's game. (or making the player happy at the time)
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Turned out to be the wrong decision, but again, 116 pitches is not THAT bad.
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Edinson threw way more than 70-80 pitches per game in 2007, in his 6 starts with the Rangers. I think pitch counts are a necessary tool in watching a pitcher, along with the many other factors U.K. talked about. The way I understand it, a guy is throwing sinkers and changeups and around 13 pitches every inning, his 117 pitches (all other factors being equal) is going to be quite different than a guy throwing 4 seam fastballs and hard sliders that's hit 117 pitches by the fifth inning.
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All those were 1 run games and he pitched well in each. Lookin at his game logs for those, he only went over 25 pitches in two innings during that 4 game stretch. Those games in September didn't decide a pennant, but they were tight games and judging by the gamelogs he didn't really have but a couple of stressful innnings as far as pitches thrown. He also had an extra day's rest 8 times last year- just like Rich Harden. :D (Rich had several other outings with longer rest, too- I wanted to drop his name for emphasis, but it needed the disclaimer).
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Well, he certainly hasnt been AS bad as he was with Prior/Wood.... Out of Volquez' 9 starts this year, he threw 100+ pitches 5 times (107,104,106,110,108). Last year out of his 33 starts, 22 of them he threw 100+ pitches, topping out at 121 on Sept 13 @ Arizona. He also had FOURTEEN starts last year in which he went 110 or more pitches, including ALL BUT ONE of his starts in september (117, 119, 121, 111, 98) ...but he definitely hasn't tried to protect Volquez' arm. Volquez is a good pitcher when healthy- so he went deep into a lot of games last year. I've looked at Dusty's work in Cincy and using stuff like PAP over at baseballprospectus he is- like you said- not like he was with the Cubs. I'm not saying he's innocent, mind you- I just don't see the level of evidence someone can build against him with other teams. With the Reds he doesn't appear to have run them in the ground.
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I don't like Dusty either, but I can't see where he's ridden Volquez and Cueto like he did the young guys when he was with the Cubs. Of course, if the Reds were in a pennant race, I can't say what would happen.
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I don't think this sentiment can be emphasized enough for the spazzes still in denial out there thinking that only a relative few players used PED's over the last 40 years. Agree. Tons used something or other. Baseball was slow to pick up the benefits of strength training. Once they did, and saw the physical rewards, the PEDs used in gyms all over the country were there for them to see you could add even more benefit by using those. I was thinking about Ortiz earlier- I wonder if there's anything to the number of south of the border guys using. I.E., I've read that buying stuff like synthetic testosterone is relatively easy in the Dominican. Why, then, wouldn't these guys say they were taking whatever without much thought? Guys like Ortiz (who I assume has lived in the Dominican in the winter) could have bought this stuff just about anywhere, and until 2003, what did it really matter?
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No wonder these guys keep quiet. Despite many saying that coming out with the truth will make them better than the persistant deniers, someone will always be there to rip them a new one regardless. Even if what they've admitted to wasn't even illegal at the time (in the case of andro). It depends on what he means by amphetamines- gnc grade or pharmaceutical- as to their legality, I guess, but that's still a mighty big grey area there too. Anyway, Arroyo is skinny and a pitcher and would have likely never popped up on anyone's andro radar, but he talked about it anyway. The guys on the list supposedly know they're on the list and I guess if you buy the theory that he's trying to get out in front and spin this because he's afraid he'll be named, then he's still doing what tons of people are demanding in that he's admitting it before he's caught by the public.
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The Cubs were often near the leaders in walks, but the only times they actually led the NL in most walks given during that time frame was 2003 and 2006. Dang, I was close. Thanks.
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I think we had a streak of leading the league in walks allowed as well, but I also think that has improved in the past year or so.
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I still remember the supposedly very smart Joe Girardi talking about, I believe Lieber, saying that he noticed he looked hurt out there several pitches, and possibly an entire inning, before he came out of a game hurt. These guys are too concerned with the immediate need to win today's game to be counted on to navigate the nuances of potential signs of injury. The exact thing the coach I interviewed said coach's had to stay away from- in a losing streak, say, you might really pressure yourself to win today's game and like you said above, that could influence your decision-making negatively in regard to pitcher health.
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I hate idiots that say this crap. No, people don't suggest your arm will fall off if you throw 100. It's not even close to that. You can't have conversations with these people. It reminds me of the consensus among some that it is more 'manly' to swing at bad pitches with men on to try and drive them in instead of taking a walk.
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It's never a good idea to use exceptions as examples. For every Doc there are dozens of Priors. Plus, I wanted to add that this exception is a knock against PAP- I wasn't using it to prove anything- my opinion of PAP is that it is a viable tool, even though it has some drawbacks and shouldn't be used as the only factor in trying to judge if a guy is overworked.
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It's never a good idea to use exceptions as examples. For every Doc there are dozens of Priors. I kind of like the idea of limiting pitch counts for young pitchers, but I suspect that it's not that pitches per start that is the key. It is the pitches per inning, especially later in the start (e.g., from the 3rd inning on). The last article I linked was from a coach that talked specifically about that. Guys may have a decent total pitch count in a game, but a couple of 35 pitch innings sprinkled in amongst relatively easy ones may be harder on guys than spreading it out over the outing. Moderation is the key, I guess.
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Haven't Harang, Volquez and Arroyo been among the league leaders in pitches/start under Dusty's tenure? I guess you'll have to see the next article and find out. :D I will say that based on PAP, Harang was in the top 5 'most abused' three straight years before Dusty got there, with Arroyo 6th in back to back years in '06 and '07. Reds pitchers have fared a little better PAP-wise since the 2008 season started, when Baker took over. The difference may not be stark, but Baker is better than Narron in this regard, and seemingly handling his staff differently than he did with the Cubs, when he had at least one pitcher in the top 5 every year. Of course, that doesn't tell the whole story at all. Roy Halladay the past few years has ranked as very abused by PAP, but I wouldn't pick him for falling off a cliff perormance-wise any time soon.
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Some idiot at baseballdailydigest.com has been writing about pitch counts lately. 8-[ Here are the links to those- http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/blogs/2009/06/30/pitcher-abuse/ http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/blogs/2009/07/09/pap/ http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/blogs/2009/07/16/pap-ii/ http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/blogs/2009/07/27/watching-a-pitchers-workload/ The conclusion that's coming in the next few days will find Baker not guilty (if you can believe that) in the past couple of years, but arguing that he didn't run Prior (and Wood and Zambrano) in the ground 6 years ago is a little harder. O.K., a lot harder.
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http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/blogs/2009/07/27/watching-a-pitchers-workload/ This part of the series is based on an interview with an assistant coach for UK Baseball. on a side note -My son has gone to their camp twice (that was my 'in') and it was a phenomenal atmosphere. He is 6 and I'm jealous of him because he's learning more about baseball every day and it's fun to watch and reminds me of good times as a youngster.
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I have a favorite exchange, but don't remember it exactly. I do recall the basics, and it involved Pat asking Ron about a September callup back in Ron's day. Ron was watching the game and said he didn't remember this guy at all. Pat now has him because Ron's not totally paying attention and Pat starts giving details about this guy to a. try to get Ron to remember him b. see how far he can take this while Ron's not really paying attention to him So, Pat's saying, 'yeah, he was the backup at such and such position' etc. Ron keeps saying nope, don't remember. Then Pat starts throwing in stuff like, 'says here he was best man in your wedding, Ron'- and Santo is still just saying 'nah, don't really remember him Pat' and let the line about the wedding completely slip past him. That's probably not exactly how it went, but I was loling.
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Thanks WreckingMachine!
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http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/blogs/2009/07/16/pap-ii/ If I put the last few together, I'd have a real article!
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I had hoped to get with Gary, but he was out recruiting. The guy I did get to talk to was a pitching coach at a small college and is now learning the trade under Gary at UK. I got a lot of info I can use later in the series. Oh, thanks, by the way!
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http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/blogs/2009/07/09/pap/ Another entry. Ping, if you check this, I had a sit-down with an assistant to a coach that I think you know.
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Got a job working for the Mobile Bay Bears!
wade replied to Clem Fandango's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Cool job, congrats.