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jumbo

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Everything posted by jumbo

  1. The Tankathon mock has us taking Trask in Rd 2 with a G and T in 1 and 3. I'd be OK with a 2nd rd QB. As for the line, I think Massie is cut this offseason but Leno is back. I'd resign Ifedi to another $1M deal to back up RT and try to draft a T in the first two rounds. Take a QB that falls in round 1-3 but don't force it. Interior line actually seems OK with Whitehair/Mustipher/Bars knowing that Daniels will push one to a back up role. I don't know if either Simmons or Hambright are worthwhile developmental pieces but I think both profile as G, and we're currently pretty darn thin at T.
  2. I was looking at the Trubisky trade the other day. The 2017 3rd rounder given up was used on Alvin Kamara. The 2018 3rd rounder given up was used on Fred Warner.
  3. 41-25 had been the final score of an NFL game only once prior to this past week. It was a scoragami! (Twitter account with every NFL game score combination in history)
  4. Well said A couple awesome Pace overpays (trades with actual picks) Bears get - Trubisky #2 Bears give - Solomon Thomas #3(could have been DeShaun) Alvin Kamara (2017 3rd) Tedric Thompson (2017 4th picked Eddie Jackson one pick after this pick by trading up) Fred Warner (2018 3rd rounder) Bears get - Anthony Miller (2018 2nd) Bears give - Antonio Callaway (2018 4th) Mecole Hardman (2019 2nd) Of course there are lots of over draft examples - 2020 Kmet 2019 Montgomery, Ridley, really you could say the whole draft 2018 A Miller, 2017 Trubisky, Shaheen 2016 Floyd (I thought we were trading up for Tunsil) 2015 White, Grasu I can't fault him for 4th round on, he's had some really good picks. But he does not value picks appropriately and also overpays in FA, notably Graham and Quinn here recently.
  5. I tend to discredit the later round picks so much that I wouldn't even think to package them to move up, but I also didn't realize they had any additional picks in those later rounds. That being said, what would (2) 6th round picks get you? I cant imagine too much, 5 slots in the 3rd? Per "the chart" 2 high sixths might get you one slot in the mid first round. Realistically no one want two sixth though. They'll just demand a mid 4th which is the same point value (which the Bears happen to lack). In the mid 1st, 3 slots would be like a late third though. Eta misunderstood the original question.. In the third it could be 5 spots. If we're talking comp picks which are like high sevenths, which about adds up. I personally don't like that as a trade up though. 3 for 1 trades are icky to me in the middle rounds. Nothing is official by they project to have 2 6ths and a 7th from comp picks. And +1 from Shaheen and (-1) from Piniero, both a 6th or 7th, so roughly net even. I think Over The Cap shows the comp pick limit hitting after the Bears second 6th rounder, so no 7th round comp pick. I heard that Shaheen being resigned triggered his conditional pick to go from 7th to 6th (no idea how to verify that). Piniero is to Oak. So they would have 1 2 3 4 -> to Minnesota 5 6 6 from Miami 6 Comp 6 Comp
  6. Yep. That's exactly right. I don't see him having value, but let's just say you could trade him for a conditional 7th rounder with the condition being he wins MVP- whatever outrageous condition where you're just giving him away and the receiving team basically has a 11.5M 1 year deal with options (effectively) and no dead cap. I'm still skepitkal you could find someone so I think you're now at the point of attaching something of value to him like a draft pick. But in theory it works for both teams, 11.5m total net savings for the Bears (spread out over 2 years for cap purposes). Free trial for the receiving team. Yeah, I agree he is not an attractive trade target for any teams out there, but I knew his contract status off the top of my head. It is pretty nice for an acquiring team to have the luxury of no dead cap. Why does his 11.5 spread over two years? I was thinking the dead cap for a trade is exactly like a cut, and there is a provision where a team can designate a player as a post-June cut so that they can look for a new job early and the cutting team can spread the cap hit over two years instead of one.
  7. How exactly does the cap hit work when trading? Does the players cap hit simply transfer from one team to the next? At one point in time I thought that the pro-rated signing bonus accelerated into the season that the player was acquired. This would make high salary/signing bonus guys impossible to trade, though I guess any trade could have a restructure built into it. The old team immediately takes any dead money hit in the form of prorated signing bonuses, all accelerated. The new teams gets all base salary cap hits, both guaranteed or unguaranteed. So for Stafford: The Lions would take a dead cap hit of 19M for prorated salary. I'm not exactly sure what happens with his roster bonus though. It's due March 17 in 2021 and 2022 ($10M each year) so he might have to be traded before then for the Lions to not pick that up. But with a 33M cap hit the Lions still would end up net positive to trade him in that scenario. So certainly not impossible. And IMO the dead cap part is overblown. It's dead cap for a reason, it's a sunk cost. The savings is the annual salary that you get out of. And you can almost always move around other salaries to offset for the acceleration aspect of that contract. And yea any restructure could happen as part of the trade, though only on unguaranteed portions I believe. Awesome, thanks. I keep reading people saying "trade ____, cut _____" and I'm trying to figure out who they could trade with the cap effects. I thought it was more complex for some reason. The low cap next year is going to be crazy - players will get cut to get the team under cap, then there may be a ton of players available with no cap space to pay them. I'm trying to game out how it will work but a lot of teams (Bears included) are way over that figure and will have a hard time signing anyone. Bears will be in purgatory for another year, unable to spend their way out with quick fixes Question - if the Bears traded Robert Quinn (humor me on this), his dead cap hits the 2021 cap, and the new team has him with no future dead cap liability? He could be a one year rental and then cut before 2022 and whatever cap hit he would have had was already eaten by the Bears?
  8. How exactly does the cap hit work when trading? Does the players cap hit simply transfer from one team to the next? At one point in time I thought that the pro-rated signing bonus accelerated into the season that the player was acquired. This would make high salary/signing bonus guys impossible to trade, though I guess any trade could have a restructure built into it.
  9. jumbo

    NFL Week 10

    Watched this in real time then 50 times on all the highlights - Once Hopkins jumps and the ball is arriving is it illegal for one of the three BUF defenders to just grab his arm and pull it down? All three jumped with him and he of course jumped the highest and put the clamps on it. Nobody played him catching it instead of the ball.
  10. Biggs says these guys are out Montgomery, hopefully Lamar Miller will suit up Trubisky Jenkins McManis Questionable Whitehair Kmet Spriggs Mingo Robinson Doubtful Mustihper Best case OLine looks like Leno Bars/Coward Whitehair Ifedi Spriggs
  11. This is going to be awful. Glad we didn't sign the Buffalo G last week
  12. I like the video I'm seeing of Zach Wilson; great arm, mobile, very accurate
  13. I can't see this team beating the Saints. Almost certain losses: Saints, Titans, Packers, Packers Almost certain wins: Jaguars Toss Ups: Vikings, Lions, Texans, Vikings If they go 3-1 in the toss ups, that's 9-7
  14. Completely agree. I was flummoxd when the offseason ended with no #2 RB. Cohen is a 3rd down back at best. Patterson would be an emergency RB like in NE, and trick play guy. Still if Montgomery sprains an ankle there is no RB unless you count Nall. Maybe he can do it, but he hasn't yet and never plays. Nall was in on a few plays on Sunday fwiw eta: I'd like to see Nall get the ball more. he's big and doesn't totally lack speed, ran a 4.58 40. Yeah, I meant beyond a few snaps. We don't know if he can be a primary ball carrier.
  15. jumbo

    NFL Week 2

    And Brady would have been there if Brees hadn't decided to come back. I know they love him there, (and Brady had some issues week 1) but man they have to be pissed if he really is done and could have had TB12 ready to takeover.
  16. Completely agree. I was flummoxd when the offseason ended with no #2 RB. Cohen is a 3rd down back at best. Patterson would be an emergency RB like in NE, and trick play guy. Still if Montgomery sprains an ankle there is no RB unless you count Nall. Maybe he can do it, but he hasn't yet and never plays.
  17. The Giants in desperate need to protect an aging Eli Manning skipped over Tunsil and picked Eli Apple instead. Bonkers. I'm convinced the Giants were going to take Leonard Floyd (was a popular pick in mocks) and the Bears screwed them by trading in front of them for him, and they panic picked Apple. Nevermind the fact that the Bears should have actually picked Tunsil as well. I remember this draft. When the trade up happened I assumed Tunsil would be the pick.
  18. The beat writers are saying that Nagy won't overdo it with Trubisky praise, or pump him up. I'm convinced that it's because Mitch looked good in training camp only to freeze once the actual games start, he's a little gun shy in building him up (and giving him the tough love compared to coddling him in the past). I can't help but think that Mitch will continue to look better in camp than Foles, essentially forcing the team to see if Mitch can do it in the games or not. Maybe Mitch starts with a very short leash? Or does the coaching staff say "fool me once, but not again" and start Foles? Foles will have to outperform or at least keep up with practice Mitch for this to happen. Whoever starts will be facing the Lions, Giants, and Falcons, then the Colts, Bucs, and Panthers. Only the Colts seem like a really strong defensive team, but I am not up to speed with current projections. If whoever starts can't get it done in these first 6 weeks it's an easy decision to pull them and move on to the other guy.
  19. I follow JeetHeer Great tweet
  20. jumbo

    Golf thread

    Piling on here. Figured that out around my 5th round this year when I realized that taking my 6 iron and just trying to punch out of the woods was giving me my best contact. Even 175 right down the middle off the tee is plenty valuable in a scramble, and getting the experience of hitting down the fairway is going to help a lot more than bouncing through the trees until you make it to the green. While I don't disagree with the concept, I have always found this hard to implement. Trying to shorten my swing or not swing as hard just messes up my timing. The advice for me that always seems to work is relax and let the club do the work. It seems like over-swingers throw their hips forward and then miss the ball instead of being smooth. There is definitely a balance between going after it and trying to throttle yourself into a controlled motion. Usually I have to think slow/90% until I get into rythym, then it's just making the swing without thinking too much. Since it is in line with the comments, here are my swing keys that I use for pretty much every shot. Complete the backswing (this avoids hips firing during downswing and creates space for the downswing) Slow motion swing (this avoids rushing the hips or shoulders and a hard left hook) Belt buckle aiming at the target (this helps me complete the forward weight transfer instead of hanging back and pushing the ball weak right) For putting my main key is to focus on the ball until it is out of view (this avoids a lift/turn your of the head which can result in off center contact, leading to short putts or push/pull) Love all the golf chatter on here. I am obsessed with it and can't get enough.
  21. jumbo

    Golf thread

    Highly recommend. Maybe it’s because I was already playing a “hit thing on ground with a stick” sport, and maybe it’s because I haven’t actually played a real round yet and my hubris will catch up with me, but I have a sneaking suspicion it’s easier to be not terrible than many people have you believe. I see a lot of patterns that mirror other hobbies I’ve picked up where a vocal minority insisted it was incredibly difficult to get better but they were mostly shooting themselves in the foot. I am pretty sure a lot of struggling amateur golfers are 1) neglecting their short game. Ive got a putting mat and chipping target at home, and anytime I have some downtime to watch tv or kid wants to be left alone in the yard, I’m grinding the simple shots. 2) overhitting to chase distance. Ultimately if I do it with my buddies on a trip, I know it will be 80% about beers, cigars, and dicking around, and I could literally just do that with them and not pick up a club, but think I would enjoy the last 20% if I can look like it's not my second time picking up clubs (I've golfed 9 holes one other time and it was "best ball" so I couldn't slow things down). But beyond the trip, I'm way too sedentary and while I should also do some real workouts too, golf does sound more appealing the older I get and seeing how my body has aged going on 15 years from my athletic prime. Insert the possibility to leverage it for business outings as well is more and more appealing as I shift into roles where I am expected to be a true advocate for my company and help establish/maintain relationships outside the 9-5 working relationship. I wouldn't want to offer a round of golf to a client/potential client right now and that's a little limiting. Funny thing I've noticed is it's hard to get customers to go out and play golf. Too much of a time commitment for many. TopGolf is a pretty sweet alternative because you can get in and out in a relatively short amount of time, not as much individual pressure for anyone, and any size group can be accommodated. I'd rather golf, but it's still better than just buying someone lunch.
  22. jumbo

    Golf thread

    This exactly. When I first played in a city tournament I missed several short putts due to nerves and not having tapped them in all those times. It's just good for your game to always make the ball rattle the cup.
  23. jumbo

    Golf thread

    I started learning about 8-10 years ago, started to get serious about playing somewhat regularly 5-6 years ago. I did not have a natural swing, and I could not tell what I'm doing wrong. Watching videos or reading tips in the golf magazines just screwed me up and made me more inconsistent. I would advise you to find an instructor and get 2-3 things to work on. Ideally, fix item A, then move on to item B, C, etc. My ideal instructor is someone who doesn't tell me 100 things about the golf swing, but instead watches my swing and then gives me one or two things to work on. Beyond that, I would advise you to go play golf on courses to get a better sense of what your ball is really doing. People can go tune up on the range but when it's time to only get one chance at each swing you're not always in the rhythm of each club and it gets harder. Further advice would be to read the new simplfied rule book and take all the penalty strokes, putt out every hole instead of taking gimmes. You'll be able to see real results better that way.
  24. I wondered if this is part of the strategy at RB, not that I really want it to be. Here's a question: Having declined the 5th year option for Mitch, if he signs a backup QB contract somewhere next year does he bring back a compensatory pick? Floyd didn't but that is because the Bears cut him after previously picking up the option year. I'm just not sure if declining the option eliminates the comp pick. I wouldn't think it does but the rules are not always intuitive
  25. Nice. Makes me wonder if it makes him even more likely to trade away a 2021 draft pick to get a 3 or 4 this year. I almost expect it to happen For whatever Paces downfalls I do think he is going to read the draft as it comes to him and react. If he falls in love with a guy he certainly might. But he also has trade down 3 times from the 2nd round (two in one year). So maybe he trades down from 43 and picks up a late third, but also trades up from the 5th to the late 4th by dangling a pick next year (thinking that may be the range he jumps at a QB if he isn't targreting in with 43 or 50.) I'm not one to try to create a mock draft because I don't follow college football enough to know the prospects. I do have some fun with trying to understand markets and how teams can value picks. An article from last year talks about a newer trade value chart made to represent current rookie deals/CBA impacts, etc. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/10/bill-belichick-every-team-uses-the-same-draft-chart/ So I played with this calculator with the Bears picks and found a few trades to try to see what Pace could do to pick up some extra picks Trade down w/Broncos, #43 for #46, 178, 181 Trade down w/Ravens, #46, 226 for #60, 92 Trade down w/Seahawks #50, 163 for #64, 101, 144 Trade down w/Patriots #92, 233 for #98, 172 Bears picks would be rd 2,2,3,3,4,5,5,6,6,6 60 64 98 101 144 172 178 181 196 200 I realize that the other team has to want the trade to happen and all that. And I just kinda looked at teams with lots of picks to move around with, so not a prediction in any way, but more of an example of what I hope to see happen.
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