jumbo

I think theres a little bit of conflating correlation and causation with analysis like this sometimes. Bad teams aren't ncessarily bad because they overspend in FA. They're overspending in FA because they drafted poorly. If you're bad, you can splurge big in FA and still try to improve the draft part. NFL isn't great for tanking benefits. Careers are too short and schedule too much variance. There are certain narrow ways where FA spending inhibits draft development, but if anything it actually could mean the best bet is spending big in just a few areas rather than spreading around too much. And you have to spend a 90% target in actual cash so it's hard to underspend and if eventually you roll all that space over and have like a 100M cap room year you're basically guaranteed to spend it inefficiently then because you can't spend thst much all at once efficiently (or it would be very difficult). I didn't intend to comment on good teams/bad teams in any way. Watching the first couple days of FA and seeing some predictable and surprising overpays reinforces the goal of every team, which is building through the draft. Interesting comment on excessive cap space. I assume there is a salary floor, do we know what it is compared to the cap?

It's funny how everyone freaks out about the overpays in FA, but I am stunned at Kirk 4/72 or 4/84. It's far more than anyone thought, even though everyone agrees that FA day 1 is all about paying too much. It's a totally predictable cycle, but it still surprises. Lots of fair-ish deals happen to, to lesser fanfare. Ultimately the lesson is draft and develop. Buy low, buy castoffs. Not as easy as it sounds but when done correctly a major advantage. I was listening to a podcast the other day about bad FA signings and how to avoid. One of the comments was to look at a player over a two year period. Ogunjobi is a perfect example. Last year he played for 1/6.2MM deal. Anyone could have had him. Now this year, he's 3/40, doubling his AAV. It happens every year, a guy breaks out and gets paid, but many of these guys overperform for a variety of reasons, cash in, and then regress and get cut. I don't know enough about Ogunjobi to say that will happen to him, but it's one of many red flags, or at least yellow flags for me when looking at this signing.

Thanks raw. Yeah I know it won't stay that high, but you can see what Poles is looking at when he traded Mack and trying to build around Fields for the next few years. Knowing that, I feel the Bears def need to go after a top OL (regardless of position really) and Kirk as your slot WR as your "big" signings this offseason and build as much depth as possible with whatever cap space is left. You could probably fit Cooper or Godwin for WR, but I really like Kirk in the slot and draft a WR to develop for the outside with Mooney. We only have to wait about a week to understand the plan in a much more fully formed view I think on defense the real must have starters from FA are 3T, CB, MLB (assuming Roquan plays weak side) On offense you need a C, WR, T/G (depending on evaulations of current roster) and another WR You can value shop in FA for the rest of the holes to fill and look for BPA upgrades/depth in the draft

This is it. The team pushed all in on Mack, then again with Quinn and didn't get the offense right at the same time. It left a lopsided team with too many resources pointed to the defense and Poles is addressing that. Positive outcomes: Draft capital - obviously, and acknowledging that this is probably the best offer out there you either take it or decline to re-align the resources - this was the correct decision Cap space - less of a positive for this year, but beyond they have flexibility to sign anyone they want. Even this year they will be able to Poles roster evaluation - he rightly saw that this team is not close to contending for a SB and took a declining asset and turned it into future players/flexibility. This seems like a lay up, but the previous FO screwed this up multiple times and kept going for it also... Chargers/Staley - What a pass rush with Mack/Bosa if healthy. I will be keeping an eye on this team for the Mack factor. If they wanted to go maximum boom/bust DL they should sign Akiem Hicks to 1/$5MM. If those three were all healthy this team would be bananas My first knee jerk reaction was what? A 2nd rounder?! But then looking at Mack's stats, he hasn't been a standout since 2018, and he's over 30, and had season ending surgery this year. Eh, I don't like it but I think the draft pick compensation was probably OK, except I wish they could have gotten that second pick for this year and not next year. Agree with all your other points too. The 2nd rd pick is 2022 The 6th rd pick is 2023

No one had to say that Greenberg sucks and is not funny

This is it. The team pushed all in on Mack, then again with Quinn and didn't get the offense right at the same time. It left a lopsided team with too many resources pointed to the defense and Poles is addressing that. Positive outcomes: Draft capital - obviously, and acknowledging that this is probably the best offer out there you either take it or decline to re-align the resources - this was the correct decision Cap space - less of a positive for this year, but beyond they have flexibility to sign anyone they want. Even this year they will be able to Poles roster evaluation - he rightly saw that this team is not close to contending for a SB and took a declining asset and turned it into future players/flexibility. This seems like a lay up, but the previous FO screwed this up multiple times and kept going for it also... Chargers/Staley - What a pass rush with Mack/Bosa if healthy. I will be keeping an eye on this team for the Mack factor. If they wanted to go maximum boom/bust DL they should sign Akiem Hicks to 1/$5MM. If those three were all healthy this team would be bananas

And what does Dolphins owner Stephen Ross get for trying to pay Flores to tank? I'm sure there will be some evidence, nothing conclusive, and nothing will happen, but hearing Goodell talk about the sanctity of the game if this is true is quite the double standard.

I think part of this is that Fields had to recalibrate himself from college open to NFL open. We saw him make those throws in the Steelers game down the middle of the field. Then he got hurt a couple times and we didn't see him continue displaying this skill, but I think he gets it now. Sucks so badly that he missed almost the entire 2nd half of the season. After that Steelers game he played one below average half against the Ravens and then was out a month, then came back for I think 2 games and then was done. Almost no chance to build off that Steelers game. Even in Matt Nagy's horsefeathers offense I bet if he doesn't get hurt the discussion on Fields this offseason is a little different because he would have shown more improvement later on in the season. Edit: I almost forgot that the 49ers game was right before the steelers game too. He was nothing special as a passer in the 49ers game but he looked a lot more confident and comfortable in that game leading up to the Steelers game. 49ers game he was very decisive in scrambling. I'm not crazy about a lot of designed runs and read option for the same reason as Trubisky, he gets hurt when he's a runner. Scrambling on broken pass plays is less of a concern for me and likely enough running action to achieve the utility of his athleticism.

With that accuracy, he had 0TDs and 3INTs. Underlines the horsefeathers receivers that the Bears rolled out. This and, I remember reading Fields throws to open receivers were amongst the lowest, if not the lowest, in the NFL. That had to be a side effect of the fraud known as the Nagy offense. I think part of this is that Fields had to recalibrate himself from college open to NFL open. We saw him make those throws in the Steelers game down the middle of the field. Then he got hurt a couple times and we didn't see him continue displaying this skill, but I think he gets it now.

I'm anxious to see who they target in FA at the WR position. I was looking through a list of FA's trying to find players 29 and younger that had played a certain % of snaps last season. Those criteria whittle the list down very quickly. Mike Williams, Zach Pascal, Christian Kirk, Kalif Raymond made the cut I was using, though I should lower it for WR compared to other positions like OL, Safety, CB, etc.

I dont' see Mitch signing anywhere without a starting opportunity. The league has seen evidence that Nagy was not QB friendly. Couple that with Mitch's athleticism and renewed confidence in himself (also from Bills staff) and I think he won't settle for a back up job. Matt Ryan is still in ATL right? Probably not for long. Mitch could probably hold out for a starter's gig, but I really doubt anybody hands him the keys unopposed. Filling in for a team in transition is Mitch's best option and Atlanta should be in transition. Assuming no Rodgers/Wilson trades there will be plenty of teams in transition without a Matt Ryan type around, Mitch has got options 1 year prove-it as starting QB: Steelers, Redskins, Saints, Broncos, Bucs Compete with shaky incumbent starter: Panthers, Texans (Mills), Giants, Browns, Dolphins, Colts, Not sure how to classify Goff/Lions

Looks like Mitch will have a nice landing spot next season. I dont' see Mitch signing anywhere without a starting opportunity. The league has seen evidence that Nagy was not QB friendly. Couple that with Mitch's athleticism and renewed confidence in himself (also from Bills staff) and I think he won't settle for a back up job. Matt Ryan is still in ATL right?

I have been watching Icarus on Netflix. It starts with an amateur cyclist/filmmaker trying to blood dope as a documentary. He ends up working with the Russian Director of Anti-Doping who shows him how to beat all the tests. He outlined in clear detail how Russia swapped samples at Sochi which led to the ban at Rio by WADA, which ultimately was pulled back by the IOC. It's really aggrevating to see them clearly skirting the rules with no punishment. There was a tweet abut Richardson being disqualified and Valiyeva not - totally unfair

Who would not have expected this to happen?

Where's the "dislike" button?

Yeah, I can't imagine Rodgers would want to go somewhere where they aren't already a playoff caliber team. Are there any playoff caliber teams that need a QB and can also afford $30m for Rodgers and $30 for Adams? The rumors I've read is that Adams wants $35m. Doubt anyone gives him that. But, if he really wants money like that, some crappy team with money to burn just might give him a ridiculous contract. Jacksonville? Broncos have 40Mil in cap space. That's enough to sign Adams. If they trade for Rodgers, he'd almost certainly be willing to restructure to make that work. I heard a Green Bay reporter say that his expectation is that the Packers franchise Adams and then trade him and Rodgers to Denver for 3 firsts, two seconds and Jerry Jeudy I could see Denver doing it with their defense pretty good as is...

The way I read it was that the search team had those three coaches, but Poles insisted on being able to hire who he wants, presumably including others not in the final 3 three. If correct, then Daboll, Flores, whoever may be in play. It would be interesting to see if Poles wants Flores, for example. Does George just say OK or does he want to push back and say I didn't like him? So in my scenario, maybe the Bears said, yes, hire who you want (even someone we didn't like - this is the questionable part), but please start with our three finalists before expanding the grouping.

No, KC still would have to score in 13 seconds to force the tie. But then yea, game continues from last spot. In that case the spot is the kickoff. The theory behind it is that the halftime KO already gave each team equal chances to gain the possession edge at one of the halves. After that point, any possession edge is only time based which is game flow dependent and reliant on strategy and execution. But we don't have to guarantee equal possession because that's not football. As it played out theres no valid reason for KC to get back to back possession, its 100% luck. "That's not football" is the argument I have seen a bunch since yesterday. But you can't have sudden death and then give only 1 team the opportunity for the kill. It's like 1 team getting penalty kicks, penalty shots, a chance to score a basket, a chance to bat. That's the difference between regulation, it's not sudden death. You have a clear ending to regulation. You don't have a clear ending to OT. It's not even true sudden death. It's sudden death, if you do this (score a TD). And it gets magnified when you have one of the best offensive teams in the history of the sport. I get it, and you can't have 1 offs, but seems disingenous to say, "welp, should have stopped them" when nobody is very good at stopping them. Same if the shoe was on the other foot and Buffalo got the ball. Nobody's great at just stopping them partly because the NFL continues to change the rules so you can't stop them. The OT rules do not fit the long term shift in the game to offense. The NFL had to be thrilled with that shootout, though. Amazing back and forth that the must have imagined at some point in the past

I agree except I think game clock management should still be a component, IMO. No one argues that if the 2nd half receiving team wins the game on an ending possession that the loser should get to respond, even though the other team got an extra possession. The clock just falls that way sometimes where teams dont posses equal number of times. As long as OT is a timed play that goes to the end, then we get more football and don't alter the gameplay. Just a matter on the right length of extension and how many TO or stoppages to include. But the coin flip is total nonsense and that should be the primary goal, eliminating a coin flip to alter who might get an extra possession. KC actually ended up with two extra possessions on the night (although one was a 13 second possession so kudos to them). I want a 10 minute period, whoever leads at the end wins. But, what if there was no coin flip for overtime - whichever team received the first quarter kick off gets the ball first. This would go against the current league tendency to kick off the game and receive the second half kick off in hope to score twice in a row (finishing first half and starting second half). Minor wrinkle, but could add another layer of strategy to the first decision of the game.

I think the latter. It's one reason that I like the wide net approach. You can almost crowdsource HC candidates by what the GM candidates say and vice versa for the GM. That's not a literal statement, but the Bears could be making a simple Venn diagram of who everyone likes and who everyone is concerned about. The other thing is you get to hear 10 GM candidates tell you what is wrong with your team and how to fix it. There must be some level of common answers that are irrefutable even to non-football guys like George.

Before the "Flores wants Watson, power over GM, and a top 5 QB" chatter, i was hoping for Flores as HC with Caldwell at OC if they couldn't find a younger sexier version. Caldwell is said to have a good history developing QBs, but not sure who beyond Peyton Manning and Stafford, neither of which really needed all that much from him, imo. A defensive HC may be better off targeting a former HC who came from OC in general. Sort of like Kubiak or Wade Phillips on the defensive side. John Harbaugh seems to have had a relative degree of stability with older coordinators who never made it to be the sexy young hire type.

I heard on the radio that Schoen was going to make Daboll his priority as coach wherever he ends up. Seemed like the two were a package deal, but who knows. I would like Daboll given where Fields is at in his development, so I'm hoping they are not paired up already.

Can we just draw a name out of a hat for GM and move on to the coach? Joking, of course, but all the GM candidates have been considered top flight and I think any of them would be better than Pace. Just depends on the flavor you want, but Khan is my personal favorite. I have liked what I read about Dodds and the Cleveland guys, too I'm not crazy about a coaching hire ahead of the GM. Hire the GM and let them choose the coach. Let George tell them these are my 3 favorites, but hire whoever you want.

There's a great Athletic article on him. It's from July 2019, but I found myself getting all excited reading it. I probably would with most of the GM candidates, who all seem like an immediate upgrade. https://theathletic.com/1105033/2019/07/31/you-gotta-be-relentless-you-cant-stop-i-dont-colts-assistant-gm-ed-dodds-wont-settle-for-mediocrity/?article_source=search&search_query=dodds “Let’s go have a beer,” Schneider told him. The more they talked, the more Dodds couldn’t shake these two words from his mind. It’s what Carroll told his players every day: Always compete. Always compete. Always compete. Later that night, Dodds’ then-fiancée and now-wife put it this way: “You’re gonna be pissed off every day if you don’t do it.” He called Schneider and Carroll a few days later. “If I don’t go, I’m not competing,” he told them. “I’m taking the easy way out.” They got it. They hated it, but they got it. Dodds wanted the hard way, wanted to compete, even if it meant a roster teardown, uncertainty over Andrew Luck’s shoulder and a build that would need years. He moved across the country, reunited with his old friend from Kingsville and dug in. “How do you get up and look at yourself in the mirror, just making the comfortable choice?” Dodds says now. “You just bet on yourself, and the way you work. Even if they fired us all two years in, the experience of having to build from the ground up, installing the system, getting people to buy in, all of that, and then learning how to do it in less than ideal conditions. …” ... In the four months leading up to the draft, Dodds lives in the film room. His staff rips off 17 straight 12-hour workdays in February, poring through thousands of hours of tape, whittling each position down from hundreds to dozens. They do 15 straight more in April as the draft inches closer. It’s demanding, it’s exhaustive, it’s necessary. Dodds loves it. It’s his favorite part of the job. “You always talk about how players miss the locker room?” he said. “Well, that’s our locker room. We get pissed off with one another. We laugh and joke with one another. We bond in there.” That’s one thing Dodds loves about Indy: the staff Ballard has put together. Get him going, and he’ll rave about everyone who shuffles into that draft room, from the area scouts (“those guys kick-ass”) to head coach Frank Reich (“he’s phenomenal”) to the Colts’ analytics experts, John Park and George Li. “John will make you feel stupid,” Dodds said, “and George has forgotten more about football than I’ll ever know.” The risk Dodds took two years ago? It worked. Competing worked. The Colts are coming, coming soon, and he’s one of the biggest reasons why. You won’t see him behind the microphone, you won’t read his name in the headlines, but in two years on the job, Ballard’s No. 2 has quietly and effectively helped construct one of the best young rosters in the NFL.

McDaniels is my first choice. The potential upside for Fields is just too great to ignore. We need a coach where we can say: "if he can't get Fields to star status then no one could." That's McDaniels. The ideal offense for me is maximizing Justin Fields' abilities. Not a groundbreaking analysis, I know. But they say Fields can't read the field fast enough, then build an offense that protects him long enough to make every read. He also likes (and is good at) throwing the ball down the field. That should be the primary design of the offense. I've often compared Fields' play style to Deshaun Watson. So basically, I envision a passing offense that at it's height is similar to the Texans from 2020. That was Bill O'Brien's offense, even after he was fired. Bill O'Brien is from the same coaching tree as McDaniels. That being said, just in case I am wrong about what offense would best maximize Fields....I want an offense that is adaptable to its personnel, talent and adapts to its opponents. McDaniels also checks that box for me. He has had obviously TONS of success. First started with small WRs, who weren't really #1 guys. Then he had success with a HOF #1 in Moss. He's had offenses where his top receiving options came from small, white slot guys; 1 big burly TE, 2 TE sets, speedy WRs, small WRs, no named WRs, he's had a RB lead this offense in receiving. And the entire time, the Pats have been pretty consistent in producing an above average OL and running game with constantly changing pieces on the OL and a lot of the time with RB by committee. Even his much maligned time in Denver featured 2 top 15 teams in total offense with the likes of Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton. There's plenty of guys I think can run the offense that I think will maximize Fields. But there's not many that have shown they can adapt if their offense isn't working as planned. Obviously, McDaniels is not the perfect candidate or he'd still be in Denver or Indy. But if he's willing to try his hand at HC again, there's not many I'd rather have outside of the longshots. Came here to drop this article and it matches up to a lot of what you're saying here. The section below in particular. I am for McDaniels at this moment https://ontapsportsnet.com/2022/01/05/josh-mcdaniels-future-head-coach-nfl-chicago-bears-patriots/ "McDaniels’ offense has shown to be unpredictable, diverse, and adaptable over the years. This is because the Patriots’ offense changes week-to-week, tailoring to each specific opponent. You do not get the constant approach with McDaniels that you might when looking at Stefanski, Roman, or Shanahan. Here are a few different examples from the last few seasons: Bills vs. Patriots – Week 16, 2019 On the Patriots’ second possession of the game, they elected to use a fullback for seven of the 11 play-calls. Five of the first six play-calls were runs, along with one play-action pass. On all six of those plays, including the play-action pass, TE Matt LaCosse was used to block OLB Lorenzo Alexander from an in-line position. On the seventh and final play to include the FB, LaCosse lined up against Alexander again. Once Brady was able to identify man-to-man coverage using motion, he knew that he was likely to have a mismatch in LaCosse. Off the snap, LaCosse started to block Alexander before taking off on a delayed route. Because Alexander had seen this look and personnel grouping many times on this drive, he let his guard down just enough for Brady to drop the ball on a back-shoulder throw to LaCosse. That is a perfect example of marrying the pass and run game through personnel, blocking, and play-calls. Patriots vs. Bills – Week 13, 2021 The Patriots ran the ball all but two plays in this game, largely due to poor weather conditions. But they averaged 4.0 YPC on their way to a 14-10 victory. How did they pull that off? I am glad you asked. To open the game, the Patriots called seven different run concepts on the first seven snaps. Over the course of the game, New England called at least 12 unique run concepts, the most effective of which was “G-Lead”. The Patriots had not put “G-Lead” on tape much before this game, so it was a look Buffalo had not scouted. Although this may not be the most opportunistic example of McDaniels’ creativity, it speaks to his ability to coach up and perfect a run concept the team has not used heavily. Browns vs. Patriots – Week 10, 2021 Myles Garrett is a game-wrecker, and with a rookie starting at QB, you need to create a scheme that helps him go up against game-wreckers. McDaniels did just that, using screens, cut blocks, chips, draw plays, end-arounds, and reverses to slow Garrett down. The Browns struggled to defend misdirection, and New England threw misdirection at them all game on their way to a 45-7 victory. The Patriots asked Jones to get the ball out fast on short throws, but he also was able to get some deeper shots in because of the complementary game plan that kept the Cleveland pass rush on their heels. The power run attack kept the pass rush honest, while the misdirection and play-action made them hesitate. In addition, offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn was rarely asked to hold up one-on-one against Garrett, which always helps."