Thrilho

Agreed. Sometimes it works out, like weighting Contreras' AA performance more heavily and sometimes it doesn't like when I rated Blackburn over Hendricks a couple years ago due to Blackburn's huge strikeout playoff games. If you like waiting a little longer you're probably going to be behind the curve on some guys but look dumb a little less jumping the gun on others.

Who said anything about Martinez being a great prospect? That's not even kinda sorta the case being made. On the other hand, he is a first year IFA pro who has clearly improved as the season has gone on - particularly with his plate discipline. What I actually was saying is that he's easily a top 20 system prospect and you're overreacting to marginally more info than you had when you put him 8 to start. Further, that 8th spot was likely a ranking based largely on what sites like BP and MLB.com wrote about him (and his tools) when signed. Note: I did not have him in my top 10 before the season - IIRC he was either 12 or 13 for me. If he progresses during the summer like he has in the months leading into it, he should pretty handily make my 2017 preseason top 10. I'd like to see more power, and/or a higher BABIP during the hot months while keeping the Ks in check. You seem to think that me moving him back is really wrong, but then don't want to make a big statement in his favor. If you don't want to say he's top 10 then why is it so ludicrous that I'd have him just out of the top 20? You're spraying around the reactionary thing like it's a really bad thing. Sure, if a guy has a long track record of one level of performance then a small sample size of a different level, and you make a big deal of it then yeah I can see that as reactionary. But when a guy has zero track record then you react to the results you're given. But there are plenty of good reasons to be reactionary even with a small sample size. If you'd be a little more reactionary with your evaluation of Contreras' AA year last year you might have had him higher than #4. If a guy is crushing it to a certain level then I throw out some of the previous performance, particularly if the peripherals match. Hanneman, for instance, has one half season of pretty good performance. It's probably quite reactionary to put him at #13, but I feel pretty good about it. I like to try and be out front on guys I like. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't, but to me it doesn't make sense to move glacially on your views when a guy is vastly outperforming or underperforming his your opinion of him. And +1 on everything Craig said about EJM.

Also, headed to bed. EJM, like many of the guys, I don't have a real strong feel for yet so I'm probably not going to argue a lot on him. I just wanted to use him as an example how reactionary I am with my rankings. Recent data is big for me, and I don't mind looking like a fool. For instance, I blasted Happ pretty hard to start the season and pushed Almora. Right now I like Happ more. I'm sure I look like a dumb flip flopper, but oh well. Now we can use Tim's ranking tool to quantify and mock my flip floppery in a more effective manner.

Still seems like too much reacting to too little info here, just in a different direction: - Just because he hasn't played much CF often doesn't mean they think he's not a CF or not capable. This is the same org that popped Heyward for $180+ million with every confidence he can play CF if put into position to do so. There's at least a decent shot Dewees is not even in the org after July, certainly he's more likely to be traded than Martinez. There's a gamesmanship involved with that situation. There is just more to be gained for the 2016 Cubs org by having Dewees play more CF. - His K rate by month has been 25%, 22%, and now 17.6% in June (85 PAs). His aggragate K rate is league a erage rather than below, so it's not a damning number either. Further, plate discipline was his strength as a Cuban player - he drew 17 BBS to 19 Ks as a 18-19 YO over 144 PAs in their pro leagues. I'm not huge on Martinez, but he's pretty easily a top 20 prospect org right now and probably closer to 10 than 20. A massive drop today doesn't seem any less reactionary than the very high initial ranking. Yeah, I don't see much in your argument there for him being a layup top 20 guy. Look at Dewees' numbers, defensive profile, and draft position and tell me why EJM should be ranked higher than him right now. I'm being reactionary on EJM right now because his numbers have been pretty bad and there weren't a whole lot of ranking sites that were willing to take the plunge on him prior to the season. So it's not like we've got a situation where there was some consensus on great tools prior to the season and he's underperforming. You've got the big bonus, but other than that I haven't seen a lot to like. But I'm pretty soft on a lot of the guys I have from 17-22, so maybe EJM could move up. For me, you have to do an awful lot with the bat as a corner outfielder. Maybe he hits better or starts playing center, but until then I'm fine with where I've got him.

Done How are you getting multiple entries for each guy? I saved once without Contreras in there, once with him in there, then did again with the "Overwrite Today's Previous Entry" button. Is it creating multiple entries?

Totally. I work in analytics and really dig that kind of stuff. It'll be real cool to see exactly how public perception of a guy changes. The recent articles around here have been top quality, and I'm guessing the analytics that come from this ranking tool will be a great addition to the nsbb content machine.

Yeah, figured he's up for good and wanted to see Jimenez at number 1. But I'll put Contreras in at number 1 if we're still ranking him. Yeah, we'll rank him until he's not eligible. Done

Also, looking forward to checking out the other top 30s. I wanted to wait until I got mine out so I wasn't biased. I respect the opinions of you some of you mokes and wanted to see if I could do it on my own. It's likely that many revisions are coming.

Yeah, figured he's up for good and wanted to see Jimenez at number 1. But I'll put Contreras in at number 1 if we're still ranking him.

15? This seems as reactionary as 8 in the preseason. Its not like theres been tons more info, its been a little over half a minor league season. I figured he'd be a center fielder, but he's only got 8 CF starts in 63 games to go with his .236/.359/.359 line and 21.5% K rate. And it's not like Dewees is an uber prospect where you couldn't do more of a time split. It probably would've been more prudent to leave him out of the top 10, but right now I don't feel too bad about a big drop for him. One thing about these rankings is that this is what I feel about the guy now. If new information comes out that makes me change my mind I will, but right now there's not much outside the $3M signing bonus to say EJM should be in the top 20.

Of course, my methods of ranking guys about whom I have little information doesn't always work great. EJM is dropping like 15 spots from his 8th place ranking in my beginning of season ranking. But another interesting fact I just found as I was comparing Torres vs Happ. Torres has a 14.6% walk rate in June. Only .133 ISO during that stretch, but I'm probably happier with the walks coming back than I would be with more power at this point in his career.

I suspect cubscentral may be prone to hyperbole, as regards his defense. It's very hard to be an above-average defensive catcher in the major leagues. It's very hard to be an average or acceptable defensive catcher in the major leagues. I'll take Rice a lot more seriously if/when I get some more trustworthy enthusiasm about his chances to be an average or above-average defensive catcher. Yeah, I totally get all these concerns about having him up that high, particularly if you need more information on his defense. I wasn't saying that the guy is expected to be an above average major league catcher. Just that according to the article he was regarded as an above average college catcher. From there, I'm also drawing a line with the remarks from the BA article saying he was their favorite late round Cubs pick. I figure that there's at least some consideration of his defense in there. Then I'm not only evaluating based on his success as a pro. A 20% walk rate and 15% K rate in college was pretty good. Again, most of it was at a small school, but when he's got a 17% walk rate in A ball to go along with it you've got to figure he's got a pretty good eye. And he hasn't just been kind of doing pretty good at the plate. He's been mashing. .278 ISO in the MWL. And at 6'1" 185 you figure there's plenty of size to think the power is real. So even if he has to move off catcher and do a Zagunis he could have some decent value. If he's not a catcher for sure then he'd be behind Caritini, but there just aren't many guys in the system who are mashing at this level. And I'm pretty biased against pitchers. I mostly do these rankings with the thought of "who would I rather lose in a trade?" And if I'm ranking guys at this very moment with no further information I'd be very hesitant to trade Ian Rice.

Here's a pretty good article on Ian Rice. I was curious about his defensive skills, and it looks like he's thought of as a pretty good catcher. https://cubscentral.wordpress.com/2016/05/30/prospect-profile-ian-rice-going-full-throttle-this-year/ "The catcher, like most catchers drafted after the 20th round, was to be an organizational catcher – you know, a bullpen catcher, defensively minded, and not much of a long term future. " "While Rice’s performance this season has been great, he has always been known for his receiving skills..." "Rice held his commitment to Houston and did not have the best year of his life in 2015 as a Cougar. While people raved about his defensive skills, his bat waned, but his approach did not. While he did hit .255, he had an amazing OBP of .427 his junior year. I am sure many organizations focused just on the batting average, the Cubs did not." It's kind of weird he'd have dropped to the 29th round with a batting line of .298/.456/.485 and a 10 HR year to his name if people thought he was a great defensive catcher. I'd guess it was because he put up most of those numbers at Chipola College and only had a .255/.427/.364 at Houston in his junior year. Either way he's mashing now, so who cares why he dropped. His peripherals have always been really good and he's now hitting for a bunch of power. I'm slotting him in at 8, just ahead of Caritini.

Also, Jose Albertos (2015 $1.5M bonus) is going into my top 10. This might have already been posted on and I missed it, but here's the AZ Phil write up on his start from the other day: http://www.thecubreporter.com/jose-albertos/0 "The 17-year old Albertos was masterful beyond his years in his four innings of work, staying ahead in the count (69% of his pitches were strikes) and mixing a 96-98 MPH fastball with a plus-change and an occasional curve to keep the opposing hitters off-balance. In fact, the Albertos change-up was so deceptive that one D'backs hitter injured his right knee (and had to leave the game) screwing himself into the ground on a swinging third strike trying in vain to hit one. The only hit off Albertos was a broken-bat line drive single over the third-baseman's head with two outs in the top of the 1st." I know the results were posted the other day, but again that was in a 4 IP 1 H 1 BB 7 K game. So a 17 year old who is already throwing 96-98 with a plus change, and who is so far filling the strike zone? And enough teams liked him that the Cubs had to pay him $1.5M? Buying

Holy horsefeathers fun fact of the researching day so far. Zagunis's walk rate in the AFL last year was 28.8%. 19 walks in 66 PAs. That went along well with his 15.6% in 512 PAs at MB. So far this year he's at a paltry 13.3%. Career 17.5% K rate, at 18.2% for this year. Yup, this guy is definitely going somewhere ahead of McKinney.

Agreed. I think I'm going to rank him ahead of Almora on my list. Love Almora's floor, his fit with the team, and likelihood of reaching the level of a 3 win player. But Happ's walk rate coupled with these power binges, and it looking more likely like he'll stick at second makes him a really high ceiling player. Even if he doesn't stick full time on the infield and he strikes out at 25-30% in MLB he could be really valuable.

In his first game at catcher. They DH'd him the first two

I'm putting together my top 30 to roll out on Tim's prospect list tool, and was curious about how his defense was looking at second. So far, across A+/AA he's got a .968 fielding percentage and 4.36 RF/9 with 7 errors and 31 double plays turned in 52 games (.60 per game). For reference: 2016 2B Zobrist: .991 Fld% 4.00 RF/9 31 Double plays in 67 games (.46 per game) Career 2B Zobrist: .987 Fld% 4.47 RF/9 .52 double plays per game MLB 2B Javy: .968 Fld% 4.87 RF/9 31 double plays in 52 games (.60 per game) MiLB 2B Javy: .971 Fld% 5.97 RF/9 24 double plays in 37 games (.65 per game) So it looks to me like Happ is picking up second base pretty well. I'd have figured he would have made a lot more errors by this point or shown much worse range. This says his range has been a good deal better than 2016 Zobrist. And he's turned more double plays on a rate basis than Zobrist. 2016 Zobrist is clearly not an all world measuring stick, but he's been a pretty good defender his whole career and did it with a 4.47 RF/9 at second. Happ has also cut his K rate down quite a bit lately. In June he's at 16.5% for both K rate and walk rate, after striking out at 25.8% in April and May. Definitely torn right now on where to rank him, but he's doing a good job answering the questions I had about him early in the season.

This was always going to be "you made me bleed my own blood" game. It still is. We'll see if the Marlins can keep up.

It's good with me. I view this type of stuff as various levels of poking bear as well as getting these dudes ready for the mindset of stomping someone when they rally. The Giants aren't going to lay down in the playoffs after we out up a 4 run inning. Just score 10 now.

Exactly. Pretty sure I haven't harbored a negative thought about the Cubs once this year. They'll win. Plus there's this catcher guy who might be an elite hitter and also framed up at least 2 or 3 pitches that were well off the plate for strikes that inning. Imagine this emoji with a body, laid out in a beach chair with his hands behind his head. That's me 8-)

Btw I didn't mean to gloss of the whole "if he plays major league caliber catcher then maybe he's a top prospect thing." No idea about that part or if he's got the skills to play third or something if he has to move off. Just got home from a trip, read a bunch about the crazy Brits Brexiting, Bulls draft, Cubs loss, and decided to check out the crazy promising day on the farm. Then read a little more about this Ian Rice guy. He's 6'1, so that could work against him at catcher. But here's hoping. Also, Cease....so good. Definitely still behind Eloy but mannnn finally a truly exciting guy. *Kramergrabbinghandswithcarsalesmanguyastheycruisetowardrunningoutofgas.gif*

Hanneman's night puts his ISO at a pretty sexy .180. Big improvements in power and also in strikeout rate. He had a 21.5% K rate for 2014 and 2015 but is at 16.8% for 2016. Walk rate at 8.1% is up a little, nothing spectacular but decent. Had another walk tonight in addition to his 2 HRs and a double. Maybe they start to increase if he keeps slugging. Ian Rice also had another good night with 3 walks and a single. That puts him at a 16.8% BB vs 17.4% K for 2016 and 14.9% BB vs 17.5% K as a pro. Slash line before the game was .306/.404/.589 before the game. Some background, he's 22Y 10M old second year catcher drafted in the 29th and the Baseball America Handbook called him the Cubs best late round pick. He only had a .088 ISO last year, but it was .187 for his college career. He had a great approach in college, with a 20% BB rate and 14.5% K rate (if I'm doing my PA math right) in college. So you figure the walk rate will probably continue, and hope the power and K rate is real, and cross your fingers for defensive reviews to come back positive. Seems like if all that's in order he could be top 10 out of nowhere.

Quick someone tell me about how Almora might slap his way into decent numbers

Ok, I'll let go of who began the Szczur conversation, and just try to focus on the Almora-specific piece. For that top paragraph, if you're just talking about Almora playing a bench role for this team similar to Szczur's then yeah the offensive expectations are going to be low. Szczur has been back from injury since 5/21 and has started in 3 of 13 games, none in center. Made it into 9 by at least pinch hitting. So if that's similar to the role you're envisioning for Almora then yeah there are a lot of guys who can do it. But for most people who have any real degree of confidence in Almora's ability that would pretty much only be a 2016 version of his playing time. When you talk about what you're getting out of a 6th pick in the draft you consider more than a 3 month rookie campaign. So that was why I kept harping on the "if you only get a Szczur with the 6th pick in the draft..." thing. If you evaluate draft picks by their 6 years of MLB service time and Szczur is a second year player, then you'd need his whole projected to career to make an assessment of the pick. If you think Almora would be in a role similar to Szczur's with the 2016 Cubs for a significant portion of his career then you'd want to say that. But I don't get the sense you think Almora's likely long term outcome is 5th outfielder/25th man. So I was just trying to pin down what you meant. Regarding JHey in center long term, I'd be down. I wanted him for center to start the offseason, wanted him for center when the Cards traded him, and still think he'd be great. If that's your preferred option over Almora then I get it. Having Bryant in the fold as a guy who can play elite corner outfield a few days a week really helps the team flexibility. Bryant/JHey would probably be good enough D to allow Schwarber to keep playing. If you kept the team exactly the same, less Dex the only question would just be how many ABs does Almora get. He could be a 4th outfielder type with 300-500 PAs depending on output pretty easily for 2017. But even if he was on the low end of that I still probably wouldn't judge the draft pick too harshly yet. Or if he only had a .290-.300 wOBA at the age of 22-23, so long as he was providing pretty good defense, maintaining good contact rates, and steadily improving. It wouldn't be a light the world on fire thing, but I think you consider where he's going to be a couple years in the evaluation too.