Thrilho

Agreed on all cononuts. Would be great to get Cogs bat in the lineup but can't see sitting Zo, Javy, or JHey sitting yet. And I've reversed my position from earlier this year. Javy is too valuable at 2B and KB too good at third to keep Zo on the IF. You get a LF upgrade with KB but at least in Wrigley's small confines I think you want the IF strength more. So...same defensive alignment with hopefully Willson getting the call. I wouldn't be broken up if it was Montero though.

http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/41908/baez-came-a-long-way-to-deliver-decisive-game-1-blast “I went to Javier and told him ‘you have to take charge of this game right now,’” a smiling Strop said after the Cubs’ 1-0 win Friday night in Game 1 of their National League Division Series with the San Francisco Giants. “‘I feel like you are the power guy in that inning.’ I was screaming, ‘You better do it. Hit that s--- far away. Just swing it.’" Javy: "Alright, I'll do it." Love Strop blowing up Javy's bunting story :lol:

This is a big reason I'm happy to have guys like Javy and KB and Rizz and Schwarbs (and maybe Addy?). These are guys who can hit it through the October wind. Posey's was an easy HR in July but died in gail force winds. Be mad about Javy's bat flip if you want but it was 107 mph and 14-18 balls with that angle/speed combo went out this year.

Soler's numbers against Cueto look really solid. Do we want him out of the game? I could buy Cog's .798 OPS in 20 PAs as meaningful or maybe Javy's 4 Ks in 6 PAs but I wouldn't take much from Georgie's 2-3 with a double. Personally I just want to see the Voltron defense in as much as possible.

that's what i figured Me too. Cueto has been pretty platoon neutral in his career with a .299 wOBA against RH vs .297 against LH. FIP and xFIP within .04. This year is a mixed bag. FIP and xFIP numbers are better against lefties than righties (FIP 2.76 v LH, 3.12 v RH) but his wOBA is better against RH (wOBA .291 v LH, .263 v RH). Hard hit of 30% v LH, 24% v RH. LD% of 24% v LH, 18% v RH. So it looks like you'd want lefties in the lineup based on his numbers this year, but it's not super stark. So I'm hoping to see Javy start game 1 and pretty much all the games after that.

Isn't this the spot where they should be telling us how their defensive metrics work? Joey Votto drops from 6 DRS to -14 while his fielding percentage goes from .993 to .994. Seems like the dude handing out gold gloves at FG should be jumping at a chance to explain that.

I don't think Willson catching Arrieta is a thing we're going to see. Not counting on it but we'll see

Yes, and with Jake getting exploded the other day while Montero was catching maybe we see some more Willson in the playoffs. Seems like he's back to raking.

Ok it's cool. I think I've said my piece Almora for now. I came in prior to his big game last night to say some nice stuff about him and ended up feeding my own enjoyment of debate for while. But I think my points have been laid out about as well as I'm going to get them so I'll stop eating up space in the musings thread. Cheers to all and to all a good Almora playoff run.

- Whatever the reasons were on Baez I'm preaching patience on Almora - Both. This is the league where it takes Schwarber to get Miller and Inciarte is thrown into a deal for a bad pitcher. Most GMs are dumb and don't value defense. There are a lot of good prospects in the Cubs MiLB + major league pieces. So which is it? Is Almora the lynchpin to any potential deal or is the light hitting guy who started the year in the back half of your top 10 and didn't do much to distinguish himself this year? - For 2017, my position on him is the same as it was on Javy in 2015/2016. Maybe is the 3 win player I think he could be by this year maybe he isn't. Let's give him PAs and see. If he forces a bigger role you trade him for a much better price or you move some stuff around and give him a spot. If he fails you missed out on some return. If he's as good as he has been so far this year you've got a real good trade chip and the 2017 offseason to get your SP. - I said in my most recent post .150 by 2017, when he'll have just turned 23 with ~100 MLB PAs under his belt. I'd bet that's not his peak production. And you can spin it any way you'd like if he ends up with a .150+ iso on a substantial number of PAs in 2017 that nickname is going to sound dumb as horsefeathers

- Baez was a way better prospect than Almora and played a more valuable position with a more valuable skillset. That's why he was afforded patience at the ML level. Even then Almora has in the org only one year less than Baez, they've shown lots of patience. - They shouldn't and likely won't be waiting for 2018 to buy SP. - They can find glove first OFs post-2017 as well, I assume. - All that raw power to tap into and you'd go out on a limb for below average power at peak (including age 23 2017)? League average IsoSLG this year is .162. - You're not getting my point on Baez. It's not that Almora is going to be as good or a comparable player, it's that sometimes you work guys in gradually and get better results than if you'd just traded them. You're looking at Almora's horsefeathers MiLB iso with skepticism. My guess is some of the other goons that GM around the league right now will too. A year of quality production could net the Cubs way more. - Maybe they wait maybe they don't. But there are plenty of other guys to trade who are actually blocked or who are pitchers. Candy + Happ seems like a solid starting spot. No reason to trade a guy who might be good at a position where you have room to at least rotate guys in. - This is just where we disagree on role and talent level. If you want centerfield Kawasaki then sure you can find that but you wouldn't want him playing much. If I'm in the camp that sees Almora as a 3+ WAR/150 player who could get 200-300 PAs next season and more in 2018 pending roster construction then I think we're just talking about 2 different things. - You're calling him Slappy Almora and this is what you've got when I ask a pointed question of what you see his iso at in 2017? Yeah with the raw power he's exhibited I see a probable .150 iso. Just under league average. I'd assume anyone with nickname of Slappy would have to be pretty far off league average right? What's your number?

Sure they could trade him and if they get a stud pitcher back then maybe that's the best way to get value for 2017. But there are other years than 2017 to consider. Baez only got sparing work his first couple years and he's worked himself into what I think is a really valuable piece. I'd patient with Almora, work him in, and my guess is that "established MLB hitter" Almora will be more valuable than whatever he's seen as now. And the Cubs don't need any starting pitching til 2018, so I don't see the rush. Totally, you're entitled to be skeptical of his power. I'll look at his triple from last night and some of the other balls he's hit on a rope and say he's got some raw power he can tap into. I've put some numbers to it, in that I think he's a .150 iso type player for at least his peak years. I'll even say I expect him to hit that for 2017. Seems like that's going out on a limb. If we were doing a gentleman's bet on 2017, what would you project his iso to be?

Last revision to my post, I'm changing that .280/.320/.430 line to pre-30 rather than career. Just looked up Jeter as an idea of a ~.150 iso guy and man that tumble down your 30s really takes a toll on the batting line. So I guess I'm vouching for Almora as a guy who remains a pretty good (~95 wRC+) MLB player up to 30 but nothing beyond that. That still does seem like an awful lot to vouch for right now, but luckily enough age 29 Almora means a hill of horsefeathers to the Cubs.

Oh also, since I lost my mind on that original post and had the UZR scaling all wrong...let me say I feel confident he's consistently at least a 20 UZR player rather than 25. It's elite level, but I see no reason why he can't hit it at least until his late 20s or some injury derails him. He gets some nice jumps.

Horsefeathers. I don't know what I was looking at with that. Something on fangraphs listed Keiermayer, Heyward, and Pillar over 35...but not what I meant to be looking at. So yeah, that 4.8 fWAR with a 113 wRC+ isn't going to happen unless he's peak Keiermayer. Still that wasn't what I was trying to project from him. If it were then I'd be selling him a lot harder. He could start on an awful lot of teams as a 3 win player though and based on the eye test of his defense, his bat wouldn't have to improve a lot from his current talent level to get and keep him above that. I interpret " he could start for a few years" and "sometimes-starter" as fringe starter. Call it third division starter, whatever. If he has an 8-10 year career and starts for a few of them he's a pretty fringy starter. - Who's handing him a starting job. All I've ever said I'd commit to him for 2017 is 200-300 PAs based on roster construction. Plenty of room to work him in at 23. - The iso is again not based off 108 PAs. It's based off witnessing him crush doubles and home runs, and the knowledge that power sometimes develops slowly. You should jump on board the train. It's not too late to think he can maintain a .150< OPS through his peak years.

I didn't chime in earlier in the season, but I've envisioned him on it consistently over the last couple months. I'd think there's a spectrum of feelings from people on how valuable he'll be and how much to trust his bat, and I'm probably well on the confident end. For instance, I don't think the .162 iso is a fluke. I didn't say his .162 iso was the norm; I said I'd take it on the playoff roster. I said that "a slightly goosed up" version of his current MLB line is what I'd expect out of his career. I'd guess something like .280/.320/.430. I didn't actually try to justify this in the post but if I had I'd probably use some stuff on his age, raw power, and how improved plate approach helps unlock power. On the 33 UZR being the norm, I'm guessing you got that from where I said he's pacing for 4.6 fWAR this year. I don't know if he's actually worth 33 UZR going forward, but I'd bet it's consistently over 25. He'd be the best outfielder by UZR this year with 33, but last year there were three outfielders over 35 and 2 over 40. So even if I did expect a consistent 30 out of him it doesn't make him the far and away best defender in baseball. So I guess I'll just say I disagree with a Sickles that knows way more than me in thinking he's just a fringy guy that'll only be an opening day starter for a couple years. But for the playoffs this year, I'm looking forward to some consistent contact against both lefties and righties, and some solid (.150+) slugging.

Yeah, I think Almora makes it regardless of the Soler thing. Sczcur is OPSing .269 in 18 Sep PAs, and had a .778 in 45 Aug games even with the 2 HR game. And I think the late game Almora/Fowler/Heyward outfield sounds pretty good. Was real nice that Almora had his big game last night to instill some confidence in the bat.

He also says Paredes is "perhaps" a top 20 Cubs prospect, but not top 10 today, and that he'd probably have Clifton in the low 100's as a prospect. 10 year starter is a pretty tall bar to clear. Either way I'd take Slappy Almora's .162 MLB iso, 29% hard hit, and 33 UZR on my playoff roster. And he doesn't need to improve much past the current .276/.296/.438 line to be pretty valuable (pacing for 4.6 fWAR/600). Seems like a lot of teams could run with a guy like that hitting 7/8. Now if he thinks the bat is what we saw in AAA then different story. I'd guess the career line looks like a slightly goosed up version of this MLB line though.

Hahahaha Len: "Phil Coke dealt from the Yankees for cash. Coke for Cash." JD: "...well...that's...nefarious...get in trouble for that..." Gotta get up pretty early to throw JD a curveball he can't hit

When the catcher set up for that I mumbled "please throw it there again." Sometimes catcher decisions are bewildering.

Yeah, those numbers are pretty alarming. But I was thinking more of the situational aspect of leverage where in 2016 his wRC+ is 107 with the bases empty, 76 with men on, and 41 with RISP. Or K rates of 22.7%, 26.2%, and 28.8% respectively. The right hander/hard throwing righty thing is a problem that I agree is a legit concern that I don't have a good argument handy for. But I could see the RISP numbers get better as he learns how to use his "B hack" in big situations to get the runners in.

Yeah totally aware of how bad he's been in high leverage sitations. We got to see it today. To me he's a guy without enough track record to say he'll consistently suck in big sitations. I could trot out KBs numbers in high/low leverage sitations and I'd be laughed out of the room if I tried to tell you they mean he'll be bad in the clutch again next year. Part of that is that KB has a season of good clutchness under his belt, part is that many people think that projecting clutch numbers based on history is dumb. I'd be in the camp that thinks that for a guy this young you look at overall approach and improvements made in approach. Then figure if it's a guy who works and improves his game overall that he'll eventually extend that to the clutch situations. I think Javy has improved his approach, but his starting point is so bewilderingly bad that it doesn't look like much. For instance it seems like he's taking a lot of pitches and getting deeper into the count. But then he just can't bear to not swing on that 3 ball count. Today was a perfect example. He just couldn't lay off that 3-2 fastball off the plate and it could've cost the Cubs the game. But if he cares about improving his game then being shown the tape of situations like that and his failure should eventually hit home. I doubt it's all a recognition problem, as he laid off a fastball just off the plate on 1-2 and does it frequently. Seems like it's a matter of patience and wanting to get that hit. It's the sort of thing that CAN improve. Hopefully he can do it. But even if he stays right around offensively here I think there's a consistent 400 PAs for him. I figure there's no way the WAR stats are giving him as much credit as he deserves for all the stuff he does. Either way, no way I think he gets dealt in the offseason, but he shows no improvement I could see him not topping 400 PAs next year. A lot will depend on whether Soler Is still around.

Ah wubalubalubdub...well that whole post was just an excuse to use the "I'll do whatever the horsefeathers I want" quote anyway

Yeah I've been wrestling for a while with how I could like 2.2 WAR Javy as much as KB but I think you hit it on the head here. He's so athletic that he finds these nooks and crannies in the game where he can make use of it, and it's just so fun to watch. maybe more fun than a dude who is a conventionally awesome hitter, just because he's so rare. But the other big part was he was supposed to be this braggart "I'll do whatever the horsefeathers I want" a-hole as an A baller and that's exactly what he is. He's the horsefeathers with the MLB tat, wearing a wide open leopard skin vest under his jersey making that crazy athletic play then slapping you in the chest as hard as he can to make the tag. Definitely need that. Can't be all quire boys and seals. But even then he's not a Kolton Wong style angry horsefeathers. He's a goofball. You want a guy like him around retweeting his own articles, shooting selfies with an eye rolling Hendricks, or tricking Soler with hilarious fake Chinese food. Perfect weirdo for Maddon to point to and say "sure be whoever you want. This dude walked in here today with a baby tiger on a leash." Love that Javy.

Jeepers, that .233 ISO. Rizzo's 2016 ISO is .255. Harper's is .209. It's also great that the commercial loops. Just click the button and let Addy's smooth jazz go as you peruse discussion of his dominance. Now he just needs to make it his walk up song and watch the scotch endorsements roll in.