Thrilho

Also, the K% and BB% are fairly stable. 15.5% K is down from his last few years of 17.6%, 16.9,%, 19.7% and his BB% of 7.2% is toward the higher end of the range the last few years. But they seem within fixable ranges.

I think Niese's upside would be the 2-2.5 fWAR player he's been for the past four years. He's averaged 6 innings per start since 2010 and that hasn't dropped off this year. If he can give decent, predictable quality and eat some innings that could really stabilize the team. Plus, with a likely small cost in prospects and a short term contract that would allow the team to kick the can down the road on the fifth starter decision and keep their prospect powder dry. Some numbers on Niese: - In 2015 has career high GB:FB at 2.44. 54.8% GB 22.4% FB - Career high FB/HR% at 16.4% - 18.9% soft contact rate highest in 4 years. Hard contact rate at 31%, same as last 3 years. - All pitch speeds are in line with recent career rates - 4 seam FB usage way down. 21% relative to 28%, 31%, 36% the last 3 years - Change up usage up to 13% from ~9% - Usage of sinker, cutter, curve stable at 25%, 20%, 17% - Slugging% much higher this year on changeup, curveball, cutter - Slugging% stable on 4 seam FB It looks to me like he's a good regression candidate. Getting lots of groundballs, has moved away from his fastball, and is getting killed on the breaking stuff. If the Boz thinks he can fix him, I'd be all for getting a guy like him and not giving up much in prospects or years.

Yeah, thought I'd ask again since that BN article says nothing.

The article is behind a paywall. Any BA subscribers around that want to get into some some copyright infringement? Mostly, I just want to know who he's saying would be a first rounder and where. Thanks in advance to anyone who can help.

Agreed, and it's nice to have a manager that seems to roll out my preferred lineup (catching choice aside) every night. edit: sorry for derailing. Russell is awesome and coming soon.

Note to add that this is all my own conjecture based on my projections of the types of hitters they'll all be and likelihood of meeting my expectations. I recognize that Russell could be better than I expect or Soler/Bryant/Rizzo worse. Or Maddon could do something different than I expect. But if things shake out this season the way I expect, I'd like to keep the current four guys at the top.

What has Cather done to be dropped to 7th? But seriously folks, I think Soler, Rizzo, Bryant should bat 2-4 long term. A lot of Russell's value will be derived from his position, and I'd guess that now and for he long term those three guys will be better hitters than Russell. Soler or Bryant should have plenty of OBP and base running ability to hit 2. Russell also hasn't been a walk machine, nor is he a real speedy guy. If Russell becomes the kind of hitter to bump those guys down that would be great, but I'd guess he starts out 7th or 9th.

Matt Harvey or Cole Hamels Something like this is the correct answer, and they have to have a contract situation comparably favorable to Castro's. There's no reason to trade the guy, so any offering team needs to give them one. My favorite thing about yesterday was Hamels getting blown up. Ideally he's sporting a 4+ ERA by June and he's eliminated as an answer to this question.

The nice difference between this and what Theriot did is that I don't remember Theriot ever hitting one like the one Szcur hit today. Crushed out beyond the berm, somewhat on a line, with a nice level swing. Its tough to look at that video and believe the spring power is a complete mirage.

Some nice things about individual threads are: - You don't have to quote someone if you want to respond to a topic - It's easier to find good historical posts (stats, particularly good post on what Bryant had for breakfast last Tuesday, etc) - It's easier to catch up on thoughts on a topic. E.g. Imagine if Game of Thrones stuff was scattered in a Random Book Musings thread. Impossible! The bummer is obviously the possibility of scores if innane topics pushing things down the list. But dumb topics (things that aren't about Kris Bryant's meals, etc) should get pushed out of the mix pretty quickly due to low traffic. So while you can probably tell due to my post count that I won't be inundating the board with new threads I wanted to throw some support out there for the recent trend.

That was the comparison I was making. For as much as people are burying Javy for his contact rate he still had a z-contact rate equivalent to rookie Rizzo. Or compare it to whoever, an 80% z-contact is not bad as a rookie, and to me is a bright spot that is worth acknowledging.

Rizzo never had strikeout problems in the minors, but definitely had contact issues in his first go round. He had a 69% contact rate, with 77.9% z-contact and 57.7% o-contact. Baez was at 59.0% overall, 78.8% z-contact, and 42.1% o-contact. Rizzo's o-swing was 34.7% vs Javy's 41.0%. So Rizzo did have some contact issues, but he didn't swing at junk as much and when he did he was a decent bit better at making contact. Obviously, it's not a perfect comparison because Rizzo was a <20% K guy in the minors, but I think it's close enough to note.

My ideal would be: Opening Day: Fowler Soler Rizzo Castro Coghlan Olt Montero Pitcher Baez May 1: Fowler Soler Rizzo Bryant Castro Coghlan Montero Pitcher Baez I could jumble around 5-9, but I like the idea of Soler-Rizzo-Bryant in the 2-4 spots.

I posted this before I read that Javy had made the roster. I guess it wasn't that bold.

I predict that Javy is the opening day starting second baseman. I haven't seen the last few games to say what he's looked like, but it seems Alcantara and LaStella's hot streaks may have made him realize that his best shot at making the roster is by improving his approach. He had his third walk in his last four games today, and he his second (!!!) game in a row without a swinging strikeout. Obviously, this is a very small sample that followed a 6 K in two game sample. But around that 6 K game was where Alcantara and LaStella hit their hot streaks and the media started writing stories about Javy getting sent down. So...maybe it's super small sample size and I'll be proven wrong tomorrow. But today I'm going to predict that Javy makes the opening day roster on the strength of a reasonably low K-rate, reasonably high BB-rate, and working at bats well enough to please Maddon. Also, the steals, defense, and home runs will play a factor.

Ok, since I posted about it I might as well have my facts straight. -While he was brutal on pitches low and outside (87% whiff) only swung at 33% of those pitches. - He swung in the 50-60% range on pitches over the plate but low, whiffing 58-65%. - Up and out of the zone was bad, at 60%ish whiff rate, but in the zone and up was better, with a couple zones in the high 20s whiff rate. His most detrimental zone might have been up, in the middle of the plate, in the strike zone. He swung 84% there with a 44% whiff rate. - The inside, off the plate, but within the vertical strike zone his whiff rate was only in the teens. Maybe I'm seeing what I want, but the most promising to me is the 33% swing rate on low, outside balls. He swung and missed a lot of balls over the plate and low, but at least those look like they'll be over the plate at some point as the ball is traveling to the plate, unlike low outside balls that good hitters can generally recognize early. He also showed no power up in the zone. I don't see why he wouldn't be able to increase his contact rate and his power up there with some tweaks. Here are links to the zone profiles. I'll post the pictures later when I'm not on my phone. Swing rate http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_profile.php?player=595879&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=swing&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=01/20/2015&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1 Whiffs per swing http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_profile.php?player=595879&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=whiffswing&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=01/20/2015&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1 ISO http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_profile.php?player=595879&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=iso&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=01/20/2015&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

I've been meaning to make a post about this for a while, but Javy's contact rate in the zone was almost identical to Rizzo's first year. Z contact for Javy was 77.5% vs 77.9% for Rizzo. The big difference is O-Contact (42.1% vs 57.7%) and O-Swing (41.0% vs 34.7%). I also went Brooks Baseball to compare where in the zone they were swinging & missing. I'm at work right now, so can't give the full rundown, but Javy's biggest problem by far is pitches up in the zone and up out of the zone. He rarely whiffs on pitches on the inner half and in off the plate. He also doesn't swing that much at low outside pitches. Again, I'll post later when I've got all the data together, but those were most of the main points. I expected him to be a lot worse on pitches low and outside. For a guy with his bat speed, I'll take "not being able to lay off or catch up to high fastballs" as his main flaw in his 21 year old season.

I just think Sarris's view of Straily's floor is pretty optimistic, and it's to the point where he seems to believe that Straily was a more important piece than Valbuena. He spends 4 paragraphs discussing Straily vs one on Valbuena. And the Valbuena part is mostly just bagging him on his splits against lefties. I think the volume of posts here bemoaning the loss of Valbuena vs the ones bemoaning the loss of Straily shows that his valuation of the two players varies significantly from the norm.

Fangraphs really put the B team on this one. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/astros-and-cubs-complete-swap-to-fill-current-needs/ "It’s fair to wonder why the team needs him if they aren’t going to compete this year." "The Cubs do need pitching. So perhaps it was surprising for them to send Dan Straily in the deal" "At the very least, Straily can be an above-average starter"

The question of whether they try Bryant at third will dictate a lot of things. But so will whether Baez struggles. If he sucks in ST and they decide to send him down, then Valbuena is probably at second and Bryant is at third. If they do want Bryant at third and Javy does earn a job then the only way Coghlan doesn't play is if they get another LH LF or play Valbuena out there. I don't think Bryant is going to play much, if any, 3B when he is called up. I think they'll get him work in the OF at ST and AAA as they kill time with him and he'll be our starting LF the rest of the way with Valbuena at 3B until they decide Russell is ready. Exception in my mind would be the scenario you laid out where Baez is so bad that they go another direction there, which is certainly possible, but I think they're going to give him a lot of time to sink/swim. Yeah, I think that's the most likely scenario actually. I know my whole premise was that they'd put Bryant at third, but I meant to frame it as "if they plan to play Bryant at third this is how I'd hope Valbuena would fit." In reality, if they believe in both Russell and Baez or even if they're just all in on giving both Baez and Russell a shot in 2015 and 2016 then they'll likely stick Bryant in left right out of the gate. Then you've got Coghlan being pushed out of the lineup and Valbuena playing third, which would be my preferred scenario. Ultimate scenario is Baez earning a spot, Russell coming up midseason and Valbuena is pushed into a utility role where he plays some OF.

Yeah, that was pretty much my question. I understand thinking that the guy who has never played an ML inning in the OF is probably not going to play the OF this year. But that's what I'm hoping happens.

The question of whether they try Bryant at third will dictate a lot of things. But so will whether Baez struggles. If he sucks in ST and they decide to send him down, then Valbuena is probably at second and Bryant is at third. If they do want Bryant at third and Javy does earn a job then the only way Coghlan doesn't play is if they get another LH LF or play Valbuena out there.

Do you not agree that they'll try to use Valbuena as the safety net to Coghlan? It seems like it would be a luxury to get another left handed LF when there's one on the roster who had a .353 wOBA and potentially another guy in Valbuena who could play it.

TL;DR: Don't despair, we've still got Valbuena!

Zobrist would have been nice, but I think Valbuena can play his role very well next year. I'd be all for adding Zobrist and keeping Valbuena for an overload of OBP and versatility, but I think there's a good shot they'd have dealt Valbuena if they got Zobrist. Maybe they would have kept both, but for this post let's say that Zobrist either gets Valbuena traded or eats up his ABs. Here is a comparison of their offensive output: Valbuena (2014) wOBA: .342 OBP: .341 ISO: .186 BABIP: 294 (+.25 from career average) FG Base running value: 0.0 Zobrist (2014) wOBA: .333 OBP: .354 ISO: .123 BAIP: .301 (+.08 from career average) FG Base running value: 2.6 Zobrist (2011-2014) wOBA: .348 OBP: .360 ISO: .163 BABIP: .302 FG Base running value (3.7, -3.2, 3.9, 2.6) Zobrist pros offensively: - His consistency gives you confidence that he can produce roughly his 2014 output - Better on the bases - Switch hitter - Veteran leader with 4 playoff appearances Zobrist cons offensively: - His LD% has declined the last two years and was 18.4% in 2014. GB rate shot up to 48.8% in 2014. - Declining base running value - ISO of .123 and .127 the last two years are not great - Career .282 wOBA in playoffs. 3 of 4 appearances he was pretty bad Luis Valbuena pros offensively: - Power Luis Valbuena cons offensively: - Can he do it again? http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/luis-valbuena-bueno-or-no/ This article has a great analysis of how he refined his swing and his approach in 2014. The biggest thing is that it's more level, less uppercut. Those changes resulted not only in LD% increasing from 15.6% to 20.4% but also his FB% from 44.8% to 48.1%. That's a fine thing if you've got some power. His GB% was cut down to 31.5% in 2014. Obviously, the question is if these gains are sustainable. The article also shows that he has really honed in on belt high pitches in the zone, and that is where he is doing all his damage. I tend to trust improvements in approach by guys who already have a good approach. http://cdn.fangraphs.com/fantasy/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Valbuena-Swings-All.jpg http://cdn.fangraphs.com/fantasy/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Valbuena-ISO-All.jpg So personally, I think Valbuena's gains are real, and I'd guess he finishes with a .330+ wOBA again this year. So can he be our Zobrist? The team has never been so solid on the infield that they've asked him to play outfield, but I'd guess he could play a fine corner outfield. At least LF, but he's got a pretty good arm at 3B, and I'd guess that it would translate at least reasonably well to RF. Also, note that Valbuena was pretty good at second last year. He had a 6.4 USR/150 vs Zobrist's 10.3. But for some reason, Valbuena wasn't that good at 3B last year. He had a -4.9 UZR/150 in 2014, vs 27.5 and 18.6 in 2012 and 2013. But going forward, I'd guess he's closer that that elite 3B than the shitty one. Zobrist has never played 3B, so who knows what happens if you count on him for that. So long story short, I expect the Cubs to try and make Valbuena our Zobrist. He'll hopefully back up Soler once Bryant comes up, and will provide a safety net for both Coghlan and Javy. I'm cool with not getting Zobrist if this is the plan. One good thing about it is that it leaves LF open for an impact guy (Gordon?) at midseason. I just hope they can pull off a deal for Leonys Martin now.