Thrilho

Again, though, I'm pretty sure it's been Chapman who has said he has no interest in starting. Well if 28 year old Chapman, who is top 5 reliever gets a 4/60 contract while Greinke who is 32 makes 300M on his it seems like an easy conversation. You've got 4 years to show you're a great starting pitcher. Also we've got the Boz. Come make yourself some money.

good lord he isn't going to be a playoff starter I meant down the road

First person I've seen mention this but this COULD be more a thing than maybe credited early. He's got the pitches, the arm is healthy, the conditioning is elite...Everything's there, it is just a matter of taking the dive. Yeah you've been on the idea for years. I always thought it was a good idea but a pie in the sky type thing. But it looks like they're on the verge of acquiring him and hopefully signing him for 4 years when there are big rotation questions a year away. I think you've described him as like left handed Arrieta and that sounds about right. Huge, well conditioned guy. I'd think that if they wanted to get aggressive they could work him as a long man for part of next year and get him starting by Aug/Sep to get him around 120-130 innings including playoffs. Then maybe starting all year in 2018 or piggybacking part of the year or something. But getting him for the playoffs would be great, even if they had to supplement innings with some minor leaguers or Adam Warrens or something.

He is only 28 and is averaging 100 mph on his fastball (according to FG). Could be tough to work him up to it innings wise but Chapman as a playoff starter could be pretty valuable.

even with the rumored 4/60 extension? Ignoring the morality of the situation for the moment... I don't see the 4/60 extension as adding significant value to the deal. 4/60 is more or less market value. And while the certainty of having him under contract for that without duking it out for his services is worth something, I don't see it as adding enough to tip the scales. If it was something like 3/40 with a vesting 4th year based on appearances, maybe that would add enough value to get me over the hump. Would you think it was good value if the Cubs planned to put him into the rotation at some point?

Yeah I didn't make any mention of the moral side of this in my love fest for the deal, this is a solid summary. I think Torres for Chapman + 4 years is a great baseball value. I don't know what a lot of guys do in their free time. I really hope he didn't beat his girl. If I had proof it would be real tough to root for him. If he's getting crazy and firing off a gun in her presence that's also horrible. But I don't know context and I honestly don't know how a lot of guys live. If the Cubs are able get him around their clubhouse and make him a great guy would that offset the karma at all? When the Bears picked up Marshall he was a domestic abuser. He then got very active with his charity raising (I don't know how much but my gut was at lest a million) for his charity. If Chapman buys into the scene the Cubs have, signs a long term deal with some agreements for being a better dude, does whatever good that comes from that help offset things? Not sure on any of this and not sure how I'd feel if the deal went through and I saw him pitching every night in blue. But if they do get him and do sign him up long term it's going to to be tough to fight myself every time he comes out rather than cheer against the guy he just made look foolish. So no idea how I'll feel yet from a "being a person" perspective but that deal with the extension seems to make sense from a baseball value perspective.

Yeah that would change everything. He could really fulfill Gato's dream of joining the Cubs rotation down the road. And 4/60 does seem somewhat in the ballpark for a guy who's only proven he can be a BP guy, if we're questioning the legitimacy of the report. Seems maybe a little light, particularly in years, but if he really came at that price I'd turn cartwheels. As far as trading Torres even without an extension, I'll trust the FO. They haven't made a deal yet to trade a top prospect for a short term guy and if they think this is it then I'll guess they don't think Torres is the 100% bees knees. Or that's just what it'll take to get an absolutely wipeout guy, who if used right could make a sizable difference in close playoff games. I'm normally not up for paying a premium for relievers, but if you're going to get one,I'm ok overpaying in A ballers for the 104 mph unhittable guy. If the FO is going to punt future value for the possibility of current success in a season where the ship has recently been a bit leaky then who am I to not just enjoy the ride along with them?

Since 5/1, Torres has hit .302/.379/.468 as a 19 year old short stop at A+. I wouldn't deal him for 2 months of Chapman. Keep the powder dry on those top 3 guys and use a Zagunis or two to get someone like Will Smith.

Damn there have been some walk off hits but that might have been the AB of the season. Current storyline = Mets own Cubs. Nothing nothing game, base open, Matz hits Bryant. Ok, Rizzo is going to grind you down with 10 pitches then hammer the ball into the stands for three runs. Since then two batters have drilled the ball. Let's hope some of the sheen is off the Mets now. sweep these fools.

Mid-90s curve? Yowza. I know Thor throws a mid-90s slider but didn't realize there was such a thing a mid-90s curve. Come on blister!! :beg:

I just wanted to note that although I put Jimenez first, it's pretty close to a toss up for me between he Torres and Happ. This is one instance where defense and age are huge differentiators that I'm not sure how to rank. Like if Torres ends up an average short stop vs a plus short stop does that equal a win? More? Regardless of where he ranks against Jimenez and Happ, he's really having a great season, and seems to me like he's getting shorted by BP's 34th place ranking. With the batting line, peripherals and age I'd think they'd be knocking his defense to put him that low. And maybe they are, but they say: Then the "why he might fail" seems like a pretty big cop out. Okey dokey, doesn't seem like much of a stance for how low they put him and also listing him as "MI" instead of short stop. Hopefully we'll get some more write-ups on his defense as the midseason rankings start coming in, and I'd think that will go a long way toward solidifying ranking. But looking back, a lot of the young short stops got big bumps after their age 19 seasons. Everyone I checked on had pretty a good season, but none seemed to really blow Torres away where he shouldn't be a top 20 prospect or close to it. BA ranked Bogaerts #58 before his age 19 season and #8 after; Lindor #37 before, #28 after; Russell #48 before, #14 after; Baez #61 before, #16 after. And most of these post-19 season rankings seem pretty low in retrospect. We're still talking about 19 year old players and some of those bust, but Lindor and Russell's were kind of crazy. So here are the batting lines and archaic fielding metrics for some of the MLB's young guns in their age 19 season to compare with Torres. None had a birthday in-season, so were 19 all the way through and only Javy spent time at low A. BA/OBP/Slg___BB%/K%___wOBA/wRC+ Russell (A+): .275/.377/.508___12.1%/23.0%___.370/131 Lindor (A+): .306/.373/.410___ 9.4%/10.5%___.363/121 Bogaerts (A+): .302/.378/.505___9.9%/19.5%___.393/144 Baez (A ): .333/.383/.596___3.3%/20.4%___.432/170 (235 PA) Baez (A+): .188/.244/.400___5.8%/24.4%___.288/76 (86 PA) Torres (A+): .268/.347/.420___9.7%/21.4%___.354/118 (359 PA) full season Torres (A+): .283/.361/.445___9.6%/19.9%___.370/128 (290 PA) since 4/14 Torres (A+): .297/.367/.458___8.9%/20.1%___.378/133 (236 PA) since 5/1 Torres sucked bad the first week, kinda sucked the first month, then has been cruising. But his walks, Ks, and ISO have stayed pretty consistent the whole year. So whether you want to take the full season 118 wRC+ or the 133 his numbers stack up fairly well against all these guys. - He's K'ing right in line with Bogaerts and better than Russell and Baez. Baez and Russell are still wild cards with the Ks, so saying he's in line with them maybe doesn't say much. But 20% as a 19 year old at A+ is pretty good, when Happ had a 23.5% at age 21 (nearly 22). - His power isn't where Russell, Bogaerts, or Baez were, but Russell played in the California league. And Bogaerts only ended the season with 15 HRs in 435 PAs where Torres is at 9 in 359 now. And Torres has gone on power binges, like May when he hit 5 and had a .213 ISO. So it's in there. - The walks are still real sexy. Matchup well with any of the three patient guys - Forgot to look it up, but has 17 SBs in 24 tries. Not a great percentage, but you figure he'll have some value on the bases. Then here are the fielding numbers. Again, archaic metrics kept by guys who probably aren't paying much attention to the game. But with an outlet like BP not willing to pick a lane on the defense it's the best I've got. Fld% / RF/9 Russell 18: .951/4.29 19: .966/3.99 20: .985/4.78 MLB: .975/3.87 Lindor 18: .968/4.54 19: .952/4.48 20: .971/4.41 MLB: .979/4.28 Bogaerts 18: .924/4.59 19: .959/4.39 20: .950/3.89 MLB: .979/4.09 Baez 18: SSS 19: .950/4.59 20: .932/5.04 MLB: .974/4.41 Torres 18: .949/4.26 19: .956/4.43 To me, it looks like he compares pretty favorably. His range this year is up near Bogaerts/Lindor territory, and none of these guys were doing much better than .950 fielding percentage. A lot of these guys had huge jumps in their fielding percentages in their age 20 seasons and shortly thereafter, so we'll have to see how that shakes out with Torres. But right now his fielding metrics don't scream "not a shortstop" at me. I just don't know without being a scout and watching him where I should be projecting him to fall on that massive WAR swing between "ok shortstop" and "good shortstop." But right now I'm going to wait for some prospect ranking guys to tell me their opinion on his defense before putting Happ ahead. Happ's needs to keep hitting with otherworldly power to outdo that potential plus short stop with patience mold. And after his hot start at AA he's only at a .204 ISO after finishing A+ with a .179 ISO. He's matching Torres with 9 HRs in basically the same number of PAs (354). He cut his Ks wayyyyy down, as he's sitting at 11.5% but as a testament to SSS he's only walking at 6.6%. Again, the defense looks awesome and he's hitting .407 with a 199 wRC+, so I'm not trying to knock him. He's in the toss up with Torres and Jimenez. Once he starts going ape horsefeathers again I'm sure I'll waffle. But I'm going to wait for it to happen. I really think all three should have a pretty good shot at being top 25, they're just all new on the scene and could use a full season of domination to get them there. But TL;DR I'm still going Jimenez, Torres, Happ but after doing this little analysis I'm re-pumped about Torres.

Assuming you're not considering Willson in your rankings, I'm almost there too. And BP ranked him #1 in the Cubs system in their midseason top 50 rankings. This doesn't matter much but I've had him number 1 (aside from Contreras) since my first ranking on 6/26, and he's survived there through Happ's otherworldly onslaught. It's really hard for me to rank a corner outfielder ahead of Torres and Happ, especially based strictly on numbers, but that raw power combined with the ability to hit .330 through half a season is real impressive. BABIP blah blah blah. He's 19, so he has lots of time to tighten up those Ks, which should help keep his BA pretty high. Plus I keep running over the swing he put on that second homer from the two HR game. It was about as smooth and effortless as it gets. And to hear he made a defensive play that would've been something like a top 5 in 2016 MLB really helps that positional ranking. So Torres and Happ have really been making it hard to keep him at the top but that ceiling is just sky high. I'll also use this post to invite any EJM lumps I've earned. One of my general stances is that once a guy has shown something I'm a little more sticky with his ranking. And I don't really like corner OFs. To me, he hadn't shown enough results at the point where Tom & I had our discussion. Peripherals trending nicely but still hadn't shown enough batting average or power for me. He's really turned it on lately. He's back at least into my top 15, but I've got to do another sweep to see exactly where. Either way, now that he's had this stretch I'll ride with him a little longer through any bad stretches.

I was just looking at his line thinking how it would look nicer with a slugging over .400 and how a homer oughta do it. I guess Addy shares my affinity for aesthetics.

And with that I'm going to have to drop the mic. Have to run to some plans. Feel free to respond and I'll get back atcha sometime (much to the chagrin of the people who want interesting trade deadline talk I'm sure)

I still don't understand your point. Is the suggestion here the assumption should be that he would be the same or better given a larger role and signficiantly more responsibility? Why? Why should I ignore the other 309 PAS when I didn't ignore his previous 300 innings at SS when deciding he isn't on Russell's level as a defender? Ok, it wasn't clear to me that your assessment that his current inability to hit full time was based largely on the 309 PAs he took in 2014-2015 (of which most were in 2014). That works, I think this is another situation where I lean towards weighting what a player has done this season, in the last month, etc rather what they did at SS and at the plate in 2014. For me, I don't know how he would have fared so far in the PAs he didn't take, but I see excellent trends in peripherals and performance that tell me that he could take on a full time role and do fine.

Btw, to the mods, I didn't mean to completely derail this discussion on the trade deadline. This was just where the Baez vs Russell discussion was happening already.

I'm just going to agree to disagree on the defense. To me it's obvious even without the most perfectest info, but if the "we can't know with absolute 100% certainty" card is going to keep getting dropped then it's best to just move on. On the actual quoted part - please clarify. I don't understand what point you are making here. What did I say about PAs he didn't take? Should the assumption be that he would be a good hitter in imaginary PAs? Didn't you yourself mention/suggest that he's getting overall softer matchups as someone who does not start every day this year? On defense: fair enough. On the part about making assessments based on PAs that didn't happen I'm referring to this: That is basically what it boils down to offensively. That and I don't buy he's as good a defender as Russell - a guy who has racked up nearly 1800 innings of superlative defense in the MIF under a starter's workload the past two seasons to maybe 1100 for Baez spread over 3 seasons on a part time basis. You say "that's what it boils down to offensively" referring to me saying he's been sheltered from bad matchups. Then you say that he's not ready with the bat to be a full time player. I can only guess, since you didn't provide any other reasoning, that you think he's not a full time player because he'd struggle a lot more if he was forced to hit against everyone. I'm saying that what it boils down to for me is the .269/.311/.456. If you're saying that he's not a full time player based on those results then you're making an assessment based on PAs that have happened. If you're saying he would have struggled a lot more if he had a full time role then to me you're making an assessment based on PAs that never happened.

Also, WAR doesn't care whether you put the defensive numbers up at SS or bouncing between 3B/2B/SS. So the question of whether he's as good as Russell at short is kind of moot. My point was that Baez's overall peak value would exceed Russell's. If Baez ends up at 8 DEF and Russell at 12, to me that's close enough for Baez to beat Russell with the bat. So far that's what's happening this year when you just look at the rate numbers, with Baez pacing for 4.0 fWAR in 600 PAs vs Russell's 3.1.

The perfect information you'd be looking for on Baez's bat is an every day role where he has to face every pitcher. We don't have that, same as we don't have the data on what Baez would do in a full time short stop role. We have 385 innings at short, 255 of which came two years ago when Baez was 21. So you're willing to use those to support your argument that he's not as good a defender, then for your argument against his bat you're using an assumption on how a bunch of at bats that he didn't take would have gone. He's hitting .269/.311/.456. I'm just not sure how you're so positive on all these things when, again, perfect information does not yet exist. I'm making guesses about the future and claiming no certainty. But another way to look at the defensive metrics is that so far this year Javy has a DEF (the defensive component of fWAR) of 2.7 in 193 PAs worth of play vs Russell's 6.2 in 291. Scale them both up to 600 PAs and you have 8.4 for Javy and 12.8 for Russell. Russell has obviously better, but he's also got a bump in there for positional value, so maybe not a perfect comparison. And, as always, the ability to bounce between 3 positions and the negative impact it has on defensive development is not rolled into those numbers. So I'll continue to say it's a gray area where Russell is better, but I'm not sure by how much, and my opinion is it's closer than you make it out to be.

That the perfect scenario does not exist and is no longer possible is a pretty solid hint that he's not in Russell's league as a defensive talent. It's not as if Russell was designated the SS and Baez was always the super sub, they fell into those roles on merit. Without my alternate universe where Javy plays short stop consistently it's tough to refute the fact that Russell is a better short stop. I think he is, but we don't know what Javy would look like as an every day short stop. We don't know what their advanced defensive metrics were in the minors. What we do know is that Javy got ravaged as a hitter in 2014, and the Cubs wanted to get him MiLB PAs in 2015 to get him right. Then he got injured for half a season. Russell didn't have those contact issues, and he was brought up to play second. He was a pretty good short stop, but as circumstance had it there was another guy there already, so he played second. Russell then moved over and played gold glove caliber short. Then Javy's bat was ready. Russell is 100% entrenched at short at that point. Even if they thought Javy could be a better SS, which I doubt, why move Russell off then maybe have to move him back on later? Also, who knows how Russell is at third? Javy is a magician. The smart play, even if they thought Javy could be a better SS, is to keep a guy who's already GG caliber there. But so far this year, Russell's UZR/150 has dropped to 6.2 from 20.4 in 2015. That would give me pause in saying he's a slam dunk out of this world next league up from Javy defender. I could quote Javy's stat's from his various positions, but I don't know the sample sizes everything evens out at. For instance, he's at 36.2 this year at SS, 22.8 at second, but only -3.1 at third. He's seemed awesome at third so far, so I'm at a loss to explain those numbers. Still, Russell's numbers have plenty of sample behind them and he's had a big drop off from last year. So I'll wait and see how things shake out, but the eye test says Javy is at least in Russell's league.

agree to disagree Fair enough. Russell was a 2.9 fWAR player last year with a 90 wRC+. But Javy has been playing 3 positions this season plus center field much of the offseason. Same thing his last couple years in the minors. It's always going to be a tough comparison between the two when Javy only plays short once every two weeks. He's probably not going to look as sharp or consistent there. And if he's not putting up the amazing defense at third and second it's going to be hard to put up defensive numbers equivalent to Russell, who could easily be a gold glove winning shortstop. So yeah I'd say Russell is the better defender, but I also think that a perfect comparison could really only be made in an alternate universe where Javy gets to play short stop every day or Russell has to do Javy's super sub thing.

Long story short on that, Baez has lots of power. Defensively, he's about equivalent to Russell. And with the adjustments Baez has made so far I think he fills in the rest of his hitting game enough that his 30+ HR power tips the scales.

Baez has 1.3 fWAR in 193 PAs. That's pacing for 4.0 fWAR in a 600 PA season. You can say he's been sheltered from bad matchups, but he's still only 23 and has 502 MLB PAs. He's achieving this success while at the same time trying make major changes to his swing and approach and also playing 3 positions. Maybe he never gets those 600 PAs to get to stratosphere of 4+ fWAR, but if he does I wouldn't put his ceiling at an outside shot at 5. Personally, if we're taking single seasons I'm putting my money on Baez. Most of his purely physical tools seem better; power, bat speed, arm, speed on the bases. Russell does seem to have the better and more consistent approach, a better eye, is a steadier defender, has plenty of power, and although it won't show up in his WAR numbers he seems to be able to hit pretty well in high leverage situations. (yes, I believe in clutch and will write about it a different time) Both have shown the ability to make big adjustments, with Russell upping his walk rate to 12% after the 2-4% it dropped to in AA/AAA and Javy cutting his K rate in half from where it was in 2014. But to me, when you look at the adjustment periods Javy has had at every level followed by him exploding to a new offensive mark each time, and couple that with the remarkable swing changes he's made so far, I'd put his ceiling pretty high. Right now, with his K rate sitting just over league average, his biggest thing to solve is to start drawing walks. And walks often come directly from pitchers fearing a hitter's power. So keep hitting with power, and my guess is that the walks start coming at a league average rate as well. I like Russell as the steady hand at short and Baez as the dare devil at 3B/2B/backup SS, and maybe it shakes out that Baez consistently gets less PAs because of that. But even so, I'll put 5 internet bucks against the easy money and take Baez for top individual season during their rookie contracts.

Step right up and watch Javy adjust to the league! He's been pretty impressive with the adjustments he's made to his swing and leg kick to increase contact rate while still having the power to hit a grand slam. Now watch the walks start coming. Seems like he's getting more comfortable with this new swing, as Duke's last article showed he's punishing fastballs in the zone more and making a lot of contact in the zone. I don't think his recognition is as bad as it's seemed. I think he's been trying to make a radical change to his swing and approach and has had to think more than usual. If he can keep getting into the good counts he's been getting into by making contact on tough borderline pitches then eventually he'll see more pitches like that last Matz pitch where any buffoon would lay off. That pitch also wouldn't have been thrown to hacker Javy of last year and early this year. That's part Matz been gassed but also part thinking about Javy's splits against lefties and the grand slam he just hit. So more good hitting Javy means more scared pitchers "not giving in" on the at bat to him and more walks. We'll see if he can do it against righties now, but he seems to be doing pretty well making adjustments to get from where his contact rates were in 2014 to now. I'd bet on Javy jumping around and fixing different parts of his swing and he'll end up being that 30 home run guy and a pretty good shot at the 4-5 win player Davell has been talking about.

in 420 PA Gotta figure that 68 UZR/150 is coming down