Aaron_Kennelly

With Arrieta ready to go in Game 1 of the NLCS on normal rest.

It doesn't matter how many times they see him; they aren't beating him.

http://m.mlb.com/video/v504268983/sealaa-trout-leaps-at-the-wall-for-a-terrific-grab

They also had a guy reach on catcher's interference in the same inning.

I mean, I think Soler will drop well below .370 in BABIP and always have. But, I also think it will come with significantly more power, as he gets the ball in the air more. I will say this: Both he and Javy need to hit with lots of power to be successful. The contact issues are definitely bad. So, I agree with you in the sense that, well, if Javy doesn't keep hitting it hard, then he's going to suck. But, I just feel more comfortable in declaring that it will happen. I absolutely think hitting the ball hard is predictive of future performance.

Except, he has continued to hit the ball really hard. And he still has that high BABIP. And he has started hitting homers, too. His pumpkiness is mainly due to him being a shitty defender.

Some of them are going to turn into fly balls, some of them are going to turn into ground balls. The *only* peripheral that isn't bad is velocity, afaict. I don't completely dismiss velocity. I just don't think the evidence is there yet to use it the way people want to use it. I need to see that it's highly predictive of itself in the future before I care about it as much as many. That's a pretty important peripheral. The leaders in hard-hit% are nearly all good hitters, with lots of power. They also tend to carry with them extremely high BABIPs, unless they are extreme fly ball guys, extreme pull hitters, or extremely slow, lumbering old guys. Right now, Javy falls into none of those categories.

If the line drives aren't staying, then what do you think happens to them? This is a guy that hits the ball really hard. I know you basically completely dismiss batted ball velocity, despite there being a huge correlation between hitting the ball hard and getting base hits and extra-base hits. But, I think his current numbers are fine for a guy that hits the ball really hard. Some peripherals are bad -- his contact percent, for one. But, there's a lot of peripherals that aren't so bad -- mainly the ones dealing with how hard he hits the ball. I don't think he's suddenly a complete package. But, I think he's at a place where he can be successful, despite being a swing-and-miss guy.

Yes, I know. I'm simply saying his high BABIP right now is a function of that astronomical line drive%. He's probably going to hit more fly balls and fewer line drives, which will lead to more power. That means: lower BABIP, but more balls leaving the park. I'm just saying that it's hard to fault him for the high BABIP, when a high BABIP is likely with his current batted-ball profile. His O-Swing% is lower. His Z-Swing% is higher. His O-Contact% and Z-Contact% are both higher. He's making more hard contact. He's making less soft contact. I find all of these things encouraging.

I think you have to give Baez time to fine tune the new approach. It's clearly something new for him this year, and he had less than 400 PA combined with all the other stuff he went through. The good news is the current version of Baez with a .310ish wOBA and average or better defense is basically Kolten Wong, so giving him that opportunity isn't exactly creating a black hole in the lineup either. Yeah. It's a strange complaint. "I don't like this Javy, who might be giving up power to become a better player." Personally, I'll take this guy -- who is a useful player -- over the one we saw last year. And that's even if the whole reduced power thing maintains into next year. He absolutely needed to change from last year, I'm not questioning that at all. He's not playing pro baseball in the United States very much longer if he didn't/doesn't make adjustments after last season. My fear is that he's not capable of hitting for really good power while also keeping his K rate below historic levels. If we're talking about adding another pitcher through trade, and we have two other very capable second basemen on the roster, Baez is the one I trade, assuming he brings the most back. Eh, looking at how he's improved, I'm not really too worried about that. He's still hitting the ball really hard. And he still takes massive cuts. He's improved by showing a better eye and attacking balls in the zone. His improvements in contact ability are nice, but I don't really think he has accomplished that by giving up power.

I think you have to give Baez time to fine tune the new approach. It's clearly something new for him this year, and he had less than 400 PA combined with all the other stuff he went through. The good news is the current version of Baez with a .310ish wOBA and average or better defense is basically Kolten Wong, so giving him that opportunity isn't exactly creating a black hole in the lineup either. He's needed a .395 BABIP to get that .307 wOBA. (cue the arguments that he's a high-BABIP player or whatever is said every single time a player we like has a high BABIP). Not that he'll keep up a .395 BABIP, but he also has a 27.9% line drive%. So that BABIP isn't really too crazy, considering his batted ball profile. He's also hitting an inordinately low number of balls with soft contact. It's very likely that his batted ball profile won't stay like that. But, I'm just offering the explanation. So... maybe he starts getting more balls in the air, his line drive rate drops, his BABIP drops, and his power numbers go up? Or maybe not? But, really, it's just too small of a sample to judge anything.

I think you have to give Baez time to fine tune the new approach. It's clearly something new for him this year, and he had less than 400 PA combined with all the other stuff he went through. The good news is the current version of Baez with a .310ish wOBA and average or better defense is basically Kolten Wong, so giving him that opportunity isn't exactly creating a black hole in the lineup either. Yeah. It's a strange complaint. "I don't like this Javy, who might be giving up power to become a better player." Personally, I'll take this guy -- who is a useful player -- over the one we saw last year. And that's even if the whole reduced power thing maintains into next year.

That was pretty cool. I don't give [expletive] about us losing today or that we actually clinched yesterday. I will always enjoy seeing us celebrating playoff appearances.

hmm... no Jake Arrieta, no Gerrit Cole, not in PNC. Nope, I don't think it is. And why is this game so critical and not the previous 17 games against them, in which we are 10-7?

What is this fool talking about on Fox? Yeah, we just want the playoff experience to learn lessons. I mean, screw winning the thing.

Yep. No team has ever done that before.

Oh and about us clinching: http://i.imgur.com/Cp62j1q.jpg

The whole thing at the end of that Neyer article -- about him wishing he knew certain things -- is a crock of [expletive]. Oh, you wish you had known that Arrieta and Bryant would have really good seasons? You mean, you were wrong about them? I mean, it's not like it is that crazy to suggest that the guy with a 2.26 FIP last year would be good this year. And, Bryant exceeded most people's expectations, but he was the top prospect in all of baseball. At the same time, I wish I had known that our three-time All Star shortstop would be the worst player in baseball for the first four months or so. And I wish that I had known that our mammoth, power-hitting right fielder -- he of the .386 wOBA in a short stint last year -- would play at a below replacement level for most of the season, as well. And, come on, is 32-20 in one-run games the craziest thing ever? Especially for a good team? Yeah, it was just our fortunate luck that "went a long way." I mean, it's not like we were unlucky in any other areas. We are third in all of baseball in total fWAR. We are fifth in BaseRuns. Just admit you were wrong, Rob. The last few paragraphs reek of someone too stubborn to admit that he was wrong.

From Neyer's original article in December:

Don't we lead the world in walkoffs and have a bunch of one run wins Don't let your stats stand in the way of anecdotal raging.

If that meant anything, then the Cubs wouldn't be fifth in the NL in runs scored. It's a byproduct of what this team is. We take a lot of pitches, work deep counts, and try to hit the ball really hard. We are gonna strike out. Strikeouts are bad because they are outs. But, they aren't a signal that a team is bad. This team might lead the world in strikeouts next year and score more runs than any other team. It's just who we are. And, if you haven't noticed that we are still 25 games over .500, we are pretty freaking good.

Nope. This is what we are: high-strikeout, high-walk, mega dongsmiths. Love it or leave it!

lol

Please don't jump on t his guy. I think we're all a little peeved right now after seeing this [expletive] all season. No we're not. We're happy that we have a team that is going to win 90-some games and go to the playoffs.

[expletive]!