Aaron Kennelly

I'm back to May stages of confidence with this team. I don't know how they will win tonight, but they'll find a way. And it will probably be relatively effortless.

We're better than every team in every facet of the game. Give us all the awards. Nobody else deserves any. They are playing a different game.

The longer that went on, the more I hoped to see Eddie Vedder rocking out, with Pedro jogging in front of the stage.

They are probably seeing so much shade because they are looking up at a mammoth, hulking oak tree towering over the rest of the division.

the hell we won't. we aren't the 90's indians. all of them. All of them + Eloy.

It's looking like there is a decent chance that we clinch the division sometime during a 10-game home stand that starts September 15. https://theathletic.com/17537/2016/08/22/save-the-date-cubs-likely-to-clinch-the-nl-central-at-home/ I know it would be cool for all of the season ticket holders and you other guys that live in Chicago that might make it to a clinching game at Wrigley. But I also would love clinching the series before, which is in St. Louis.

Man, that stupid pre-All Star Game stretch. We should be looking at an all-time great regular season.

Nice to see flame-throwing Aroldis back in action.

Yes, but he has a gigantic dong. Yeah, as long as he is dispensing his Ding Dong Johnson to the rest of the league, I don't care too much. But, he's just not like the rest of them. Neither is Schwarber, for that matter, and I might love him the most.

You know all those cool little things like tagging people in amazing fashion and avoiding slides in amazing fashion that, well, basically our whole team does? Jorge can't do those things.

Weren't you gonna do a Willson article? Yes. It's coming tonight. It must not wait any longer.

As excited as I am about Addi, my excitement level for Willson is only a notch below it.

Imagine adding Schwarber to this, adding another year of seasoning to all the kids, and adding a fixed Jason Heyward (yeah right, I know).

Give him the damn Cy Young.

The pitch location graphic is always fun with Kyle. Look how well he can paint the edges.

When is part two coming? :) This weekend. I've been really busy with work. And I also am a volunteer coach for a local high school football team. And our first game is Friday. So I've been really swamped. I am going to write a smaller piece, about Willson tonight though.

Good idea. Bring the lefty in to face Heyward (does it really matter?) and then Baez.

Nice, quick inning. Let's get some more runs.

Way to get out of it.

Willie getting Jankowski again would be fantastic.

And that despite Montero being the wreck that he is? Damn. Again, these may not be accurate, given that Fox doesn't include Contreras in their team totals and I have no idea how frequently this is updated, but this is what they have by catcher: Ross 5 Contreras 3 Montero 2 No other team is listed with more than 5. I've looked around and had the same problem. Fox Sports seemed like the only place that tracked pickoffs. I finally found it, venturing deep into the Baseball Reference catacombs. You can find it for teams and individuals in here. The team one is listed in the third table down, as "PO." http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016-specialpos_c-fielding.shtml They have Montero at 0, the Cubs with 8 as a team and no other team with more than 5. Ross leads the league, despite only starting 41 games behind the plate. And Contreras is third, despite only starting 26 games behind the plate. Ross led the league last year, too.

Not very far off. That's the big difference. There are a few other minor things in there. But, that's the biggie. But, again, I don't want to go there for it. I like the layout at Fangraphs more and I'm more comfortable with it. And I like my pitching WAR based on FIP rather than ERA.

To continue my rant (and this is a rant I've already went on in some other thread earlier this year)... This has to do with what types of ground balls are advantageous for infielders looking to boost their advanced defensive stats. If you read my article looking into Addi's defense through the prism of Statcast, you know what I'm talking about. I talked about these types of batted balls in my last article about Cy Hendricks, too. Most ground balls are kinda fluky plays for the defense. A lot depends on defensive alignment and the hitter's speed, etc. There are but a few types of ground balls that carry a positive run value. These are balls hit really hard and on a low line. A ball hit really hard and nearly parallel to the ground is extremely difficult to stop. Anyway, I showed in my article about Addi that he is amazing at stopping these balls. Nearly all of these plays are going to be highlight reel plays. Highlight reel plays are very good for your advanced defensive stats. You got rewarded more for making tougher plays, because those are plays that most of the time don't get made. You don't get docked very much for not making them, though, because you shouldn't be expected to make those plays. So let's go back to those plays I showed in that article and look at updated rankings. We'll mess around with the parameters a little, to include as much data as possible. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=100&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=0&launch_angle_lt=9&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-25&batted_ball_angle_lt=0&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=#results https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=100&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=0&launch_angle_lt=9&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-23&batted_ball_angle_lt=-2&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=#results https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=90&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=0&launch_angle_lt=9&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-25&batted_ball_angle_lt=0&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&player_event_sort=start_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=&ss_gt=&ss_lt=#results https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=100&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=-10&launch_angle_lt=9&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-25&batted_ball_angle_lt=0&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&player_event_sort=start_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=&ss_gt=&ss_lt=#results It doesn't matter too much. He's still the clear best at stopping these balls. We can widen our net a little to make it a little easier for the mere mortals to make plays on some balls that are just a little easier, and they still can't compete. But let's go back to the one showing all balls hit at least 100 mph and between 0 and 9° vertical launch angle and -2 and 23° horizontal launch angle. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=100&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=0&launch_angle_lt=9&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-23&batted_ball_angle_lt=-2&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&player_event_sort=start_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=&ss_gt=&ss_lt=#results Addi's had the fewest chances at these balls of anyone. So while he and Brandon Crawford both get credit for stopping 17 of these balls, Brandon Crawford doesn't get it held against him too much that he let 8 more of them go by, since you wouldn't expect him to make those plays. You can look through all of these links and Addi's had the fewest chances in nearly all of them. Addi's getting screwed by his pitchers giving up so much weak contact. It doesn't matter too much, but it's happening. There are other plays that also rack up decent chunks of value -- the slower balls where you have to range way over to get. Those are the "Addi Slide" plays. And they will help him out. I am nitpicking. I can't search for those plays with what is available to the public. But, he's had plenty of chances to look good defensively. And he turns those chances into outs better than anyone. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=4%7C&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=&launch_angle_lt=&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-25&batted_ball_angle_lt=0&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=#results I still think he's being underrated, though, thanks to the amount of weak contact coming at him. If you look at Adam Eaton's season, he's been very good defensively. He's made more highlight reel plays than anyone. But, he's not that good. He's very good, but he's been fortunate to have the opportunity to make so many highlight reel plays. He's had more balls hit into what you could call his "highlight reel zone" than anyone. The more difficult plays that you get a chance at, the better you can make yourself look. Eaton has made those plays and saved those runs, though. If you want to know how many runs he's saved, it's right there for you. And since Addi maybe hasn't had as many chances to save runs, well, he hasn't saved those hypothetical runs. You can't give him credit for saving runs on plays that don't exist. But DRS and UZR both are probably underselling his true talent level.

I think UZR is severely underrating Russell this year. I'm fine with there being discrepancies between UZR and DRS, but I think I like DRS more -- a lot more actually. For one, UZR doesn't measure pitcher defense or catcher defense, and DRS does. What the hell is that nonsense? How can you be the preeminent defensive stat if you can't measure 2 of the 9 positions? And, generally when things are wonky with a random player's DRS and UZR discrepancy, I fell like I side with DRS at least 75% of the time. One particular thing that is really bugging me this year is that Corey Seager has an 11.6 UZR compared to Russell's 7.1. I mean, this is really pissing me off. So much. It keeps me up as I lay down to sleep every night. Corey Seager is not better defensively than Russell. Period. I will fight you if you say otherwise. I've seen them both play, and it's not close. DRS is correct: Russell with 14 runs saved and Seager with 1. Let's leave it at that... unless you want to fight me. If you think I am being a homer, I can assure you that I am not. There are some other decent defensive stats that don't measure things in terms of runs, like RZR. RZR is an older stat that fell by the wayside when DRS and UZR came about. It stands for Revised Zone Rating. It shows simply how often a player converted balls in his "zone" into outs. Russell's second among shortstops in it. Seager is middle of the pack. RZR isn't great or anything, but, generally, it lines up pretty well with DRS and UZR. The top guys are at the top. Insider Edge is another good thing to look at to measure defense. It splits batted balls up into categories, based on the likelihood that a normal defender will make the play. Russell blows Seager away in every single category. It's not even close. Seager looks really pedestrian according to Insider Edge. Anyway, it pisses me off that UZR took a horsefeathers on Addison this year, because Fangraphs uses UZR to calculate WAR. And I am pretty much Fangraphs-exclusive these days. I don't horsefeathers with Baseball Reference much anymore. So UZR being shitty makes Corey Seager look like he is in Kris Bryant's realm, when he's not. And, also, it is keeping Addi away from his rightful place up by Lindor, Correa, Bogaerts, et al. as a truly elite shortstop. UZR also is screwing with Baez and Rizzo. Javy loses 7 runs going from DRS to UZR, and Rizzo loses 5. And, well, that pisses me off too. I'm to the point where I am going to revolt against Fangraphs' WAR this year by substituting DRS in instead of UZR in their formula. It's really simple, just take the difference in runs between the two and divide by this year's "runs per WAR," which is at 9.69, and tack that on. So, Addi's actually at 4.1 WAR after tonight. Don't piss me off by saying he's at 3.4 or I will fight you.

And that's Willy being severely penalized for being a [expletive] LF instead of a really good C There have been three catchers that have picked off more than two runners this year. I'll give you a hint: One is Dioner Navarro, for some reason. Who are the other two? Hint number two: One of them has only started 26 games at catcher.