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Everything posted by Aaron Kennelly
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Enough about how Russell is blossoming into a superstar. He's already a full-blown superstar, dammit. -
Good luck.
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Sorry, Rizz, maybe next year.
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These two...
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Willie!
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He's fixed!
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MVP
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http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/even_possible_aliens.gif
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At this point, what's your prediction for his slash line next year? Are his ROS numbers (.257/.335/.390) about the median? For what it's worth, that plus his baserunning and defense gives him 0.6 WAR the rest of the year, or about 2.6 WAR over a full season. I have no idea. I would say that ROS projection looks about right for a projection. If we are talking about what kind of range we could expect, I'm not sure if that's a good median or is at a good mean or what. But, it's tough projecting guys that do this. You wouldn't be surprised by a sub-.700 OPS or an OPS nearing his career average, somewhere between .750 and .800. So what do you do? Well, you kinda split the difference and hope he gets back to normal. He might not, though. I would say, in my opinion, there's a good chance he either performs well above his projection or well below it -- at least more likely than another random player. So I'm not sure it tells us much. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach to see if he can fix things.
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[tweet] [/tweet]
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Hmm, it appears that shitty hitters don't simply forget that they are shitty hitters if they don't hit for three days.
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Stud
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Also, and not to be too callous, but who really cares if Jason Hammel gets hurt? He's your aging fifth starter and you have an option on him at the end of the year. And, barring injury, he won't even be in your playoff rotation. I hate to be so ruthless, but let's face it, our concern level goes down when someone like Hammel is pitching. You just invested nearly $200 million in this dominant pitcher, who also happens to be one of the most fragile pitchers in baseball. How are you not being more careful with this asset? Why is a safe guard not in place? That's what confused me the most last year with the whole Matt Harvey fiasco. How did it get to that point? Why wasn't a plan put in place before the season? Why didn't the two sides discuss these things beforehand?
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The Cubs have a 30 pitch/inning cap on their minor leaguers but it's just not as practical to enforce that in the big leagues. That seems reasonable and logical on both accounts, but I don't think Joe would let Arrieta, Lester, etc. throw 70 pitches in 1.2 innings. Letting Strasburg do it with his history and money he's owed seems incredibly reckless. I'm not so worried with throwing 35 in an inning. It's a worry, sure. But, I mean, we just don't know. It's better to be safe. But, I'm not too worried about it, depending on the situation. There are a lot of questions you need to ask in that situation. Is the guy healthy, or has he generally been healthy? Was it really high stress? Is it a close game that matters? Has he been pushed to his limits in the past? Has he been laboring at all in his prior starts? This is where it becomes a problem with Strasburg. He checks about all those boxes. And not only did he throw 35 in an inning. He threw over 40. And then you run him out for 30 more, one inning later, already down 7, in Coors, with your division pretty much wrapped up, even though he's already been on the DL once this year and numerous times in his past, and despite him laboring through his last couple of starts already?
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Jaxon was gracious enough to let us dong off of him twice when we faced him in relief last year. Time to earn your money again this year, Edwin.
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Rizzo also ranks second among first baseman this year in Baseball Prospectus' defensive stat, fielding runs above average. Alright, enough about Rizzo's defense, or I am going to have to write an article.
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You're next, Scherzer.
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Let's use a 50/50 hybrid of DRS and UZR. (It's hard to be exact, since DRS rounds to the nearest full number and UZR doesn't. So I'm just going to round UZR to the nearest full number, add the two together, and divide by two.) Rizzo's rank of qualified 1B, by hybrid DRS/UZR: 2016: 1st 2015: 3rd 2014: 3rd 2013: 1st
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Since DRS's inception in 2003, Rizzo has saved the fourth-most runs at first base. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2003&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d Since UZR's inception in 2002, Rizzo has saved the seventh-most runs at first base. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d
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Just a reminder: Our 22-year-old shortstop is going to hit over 20 home runs, while ranking in the top 3 among shortstops in BB% and DRS.
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Apparently potato chips don't have the same performance-enhancing effect in the altitude?
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Well I'm not sorry I missed this game. Chalk it up to Coors being Coors and move on? (It would appear the defense sucked, too, though?)
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You have to wait until the 5th spot in our lineup to face a guy with an OBP that doesn't rank in the top 15 in MLB.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-20-16
Aaron Kennelly replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I liked the idea of Rose a lot when I saw him earlier in the year, when he was still struggling. He's got a large, strong, wiry body. (Think Kris Bryant, only skinnier.) Obviously he's not anything like Kris Bryant. But he reminded me a lot of Bryant, based on what he looked like, his posture, how he moved about and carried himself, etc. And he looked pretty athletic, too. I saw him make a crazy catch, on a dead sprint up, reaching over the dugout fence. He definitely has raw power to spare. It's really exciting to see it coming out in games. I wonder what the deal was with him earlier in the year. He wasn't really striking out a crazy amount or anything. He just wasn't hitting. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-18-16
Aaron Kennelly replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Well said, craig. I feel very much like you do on all four of these. That Katoh list was weird on a number of rankings for me, including Almora. Perhaps it was his defense that factored in so greatly. FWIW, the metrics (Fangraphs) really liked his D in the short time he was in the majors this season. The scouting on Wilson is really exciting. Adding the 2nd half breakout with the bat really piques the interest. And there are several scenarios as to how DJ might fit in down the line. The ones you listed are all possible. Szczur continues to do well and steps in if Fowler leaves with Heyward playing some CF. Almora gets traded or craps out with the bat and becomes the 4th OFer, etc. Obviously, there's a ton of wait and see between now and then. Katoh doesn't look at defense, other than what position a guy plays at. Basically, it assumes him to be a league average center fielder. Katoh likes Almora pretty much exclusively because of his age and contact ability (and that he plays center). Those two things play well as guys move up to the big leagues, so Katoh favors them a lot.