Bryants Disco Ball

Those were just off the top. You're also now changing the rules on me. You said "Not at all." Poor wording on my part if you took that to mean there were never any guys who came over without success. But you can look more thoroughly, there aren't any recent busts, especially in the vein of Tanaka, a very successful pitcher approaching his prime years. I agree with all of that. It's still only a handful of guys, though. We have no idea if the next two or three won't bust. I want Tanaka very badly and am willing to overpay, but unlike some, I do think there should be limits. At some point it makes a lot more sense to go get Matt Garza again instead.

Injuries are part of my concern, sure. No matter the reason, the BoSox lost their ass on Matsuzaka. A total of 2 quality seasons for more than $102M spent. It wouldn't worry me as much if I thought the Cubs would throw money at the problem if it didn't work out the way they hoped. But if he's a bust, I have the feeling the Cubs would allow it to hamper future negotiations. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my fear. And just for the record, I'd love for Tanaka to be a Cub no matter the cost. I'm just worried about what happens to the team as a whole and the approach going forward if Tanaka where to bomb. It's just an inherent risk when you sign a big FA, especially a pitcher. The Cubs are in the position where they need to spend to acquire someone like him. He's young, they desperately need starting pitching, they have money to spend, there's this rumored TV deal..it's all good. I agree with this. He's the proper guy to get. However, this board always thinks we should spend whatever it takes to get everybody. But I always try to point out that you can't have everybody, so you better be really happy with the one or two we eventually get. (I know about the Dodgers, we aren't them). So, when people wanted Albert Pujols, that's your ticket. You don't get him and three others the next three years. I really, really don't believe anybody would be happy with Albert and the remainder of his contract just a few years in. Well it sure is good that we have your lone voice of reason to temper our overzealous nature. Agreed.

On the other hand, there have been enough pitching busts to make one think maybe that's not true, either. Just pointing it out. Nothing more. Pitching busts as large contracts, or pitching busts coming over from Japan? The former, sure, that's the nature of having to add pitchers externally. The latter, not at all. Even the poster boy for Japanese pitching busts, Dice-K, was a good pitcher that then had an arm injury, which brings us back to the former. Not at all? Hideki Irabu? Kei Igawa? Oh, no. They can happen. The fact that you have to go back 7 years to find those examples kind of proves the point. Since then you've had Kuroda, Darvish, Iwakuma, Uehara, Tazawa, even Fujikawa was effective before his arm injury. The offensive environment is very different than it was when Igawa, Irabu, and even Matsuzaka made the jump. Those were just off the top. You're also now changing the rules on me. You said "Not at all."

The thing I'm really interested in, is that while Theo was in Boston they noticed a pattern with Japanese pitchers who had lasted at least four years in MLB. They noticed that of the 13 that pitched more than four seasons, there was a strong decline on average after the the first three years. He obviously knows these facts since he and his guys are the ones that did the research. So, if he wants Tanaka, it must be a good sign that he's really confident in him. I hope.

Injuries are part of my concern, sure. No matter the reason, the BoSox lost their ass on Matsuzaka. A total of 2 quality seasons for more than $102M spent. It wouldn't worry me as much if I thought the Cubs would throw money at the problem if it didn't work out the way they hoped. But if he's a bust, I have the feeling the Cubs would allow it to hamper future negotiations. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my fear. And just for the record, I'd love for Tanaka to be a Cub no matter the cost. I'm just worried about what happens to the team as a whole and the approach going forward if Tanaka where to bomb. It's just an inherent risk when you sign a big FA, especially a pitcher. The Cubs are in the position where they need to spend to acquire someone like him. He's young, they desperately need starting pitching, they have money to spend, there's this rumored TV deal..it's all good. I agree with this. He's the proper guy to get. However, this board always thinks we should spend whatever it takes to get everybody. But I always try to point out that you can't have everybody, so you better be really happy with the one or two we eventually get. (I know about the Dodgers, we aren't them). So, when people wanted Albert Pujols, that's your ticket. You don't get him and three others the next three years. I really, really don't believe anybody would be happy with Albert and the remainder of his contract just a few years in.

On the other hand, there have been enough pitching busts to make one think maybe that's not true, either. Just pointing it out. Nothing more. Pitching busts as large contracts, or pitching busts coming over from Japan? The former, sure, that's the nature of having to add pitchers externally. The latter, not at all. Even the poster boy for Japanese pitching busts, Dice-K, was a good pitcher that then had an arm injury, which brings us back to the former. Not at all? Hideki Irabu? Kei Igawa? Oh, no. They can happen.

On the other hand, there have been enough pitching busts to make one think maybe that's not true, either. Just pointing it out. Nothing more.

It's a great question that could be asked toward the Cubs, too. Based on the age of Jimenez and Garza, would they rather have those two than Tanaka? (Cubs would have give up a second for Jimenez, of course).

You poor bastards. I love this board and everyone on it, but it hurts me to see so many people holding out hope. You only are going to be hurt in the end. (Insert being a Cubs fan joke here). I want Tanaka as much as everybody else, but it's not going to happen. It's over. We should go sign Matt Garza while nobody is paying attention.

Wait. Nobody actually thinks we're still getting him, right? Just making sure.

Isn't it the day after the draft, which I believe is June 5th this season?

Awesome post. I agree that Dodgers, Yanks and Cubs are top three most likely destinations. Despite whatever issues each team may have -- luxury tax, etc. - those are the exact two teams you don't want to be competing against. I hope I am so very wrong, but I've already moved on in my mind from the Cubs getting him. Maybe that's a bit irresponsible on my part, but I no longer believe they have a serious chance. At least go sign Johan Santana. :lol:

Well, no matter what condition our manager is in, I don't think he's going to be managing Tanaka. I had huge hope early on, and this is the one guy that makes perfect sense for our team. But with the Yanks and Dodgers after him among a few others, we aren't getting him. I'm an idiot for thinking otherwise.

So in the case of Carmona he just decided to play for a crappy team all season?

I didn't know him. Liar.

Very happy to see the Cubs finally acquire somebody who everyone on the board knows.

Respect your opinion, but I didn't come away from that story thinking that.

I'd rather see him posted now. If we can't afford a contract for him right now, with around 70 mill committed towards 2014, after arb raises, it's beyond sad. The Yankees, Dodgers, and Mariners appear to be our chief competitors, none of whom are great fits for Shark anyway(Mariners aren't giving up Walker for him), so Shark's market doesn't look like it'd be affected much, in my opinion. Totally agree. This is the guy I want, and like you said, if we can't get him with our payroll being what it is right now, then that's really not good. These are the free agents that all teams, whether rebuilding or championship ready, should get.

You're scared he'll be the best reliever on the team? Chuck McElroy didn't, but he looked like my step-dad so it was funny. Wait. Your step dad is Urkel? 4/10?

I have nothing to add that hasn't been said, but this board is pretty damn top-notch. How the heck do this many quality posters not even know who Wesley Wright is?

Look, I was all for them going nuts on Tanaka, but this posting fee was ridiculous. I can't fault them for not going that high. It's craaaaaaaaazy I'm sure somebody will say that. I'm pretty sure it won't be me.

7 years at 22 per is near the upper bound of what I would've been willing to give Ellsbury, but I don't think it's an unreasonable deal at all. I can respect the opinion, but I'm shocked people would think it's a reasonable deal. He's a fine but injury prone baseball player. That's pretty much it. If they are going to give out a 22 million per season long-term contract, I want somebody much better. Like somebody would command way more than 22M I'll give Mike Trout at least 30 per season if he hits free agency at 25.

Agreed. But I only make $35,000 per season.

I guess the bottom line is I don't believe in giving out long-term, big money contracts to aging veterans when they did all their best stuff for another team. That's why I pretty much hate the top end of free agency. If you find me the guy who is still yet to hit his prime (Tanaka) then I'm willing to go good years and money. I don't agree Ellsbury will end up being worth close to his contract over the life of the deal. He's got Carl Crawford written all over him. Aging? He's 28. Also, you "don't believe" in it? Because I believe in the fact that this team blows and needs talent from wherever it can get it. If by 28 you mean 30, then you are correct.

I guess the bottom line is I don't believe in giving out long-term, big money contracts to aging veterans when they did all their best stuff for another team. That's why I pretty much hate the top end of free agency. If you find me the guy who is still yet to hit his prime (Tanaka) then I'm willing to go good years and money. I don't agree Ellsbury will end up being worth close to his contract over the life of the deal. He's got Carl Crawford written all over him.